Defection & Desertion: Influence of Bigotry in 2016 Tracy Goodwin Stony Brook University Department of Political Science • Elections are won by the side that mobilizes the most partisans . • Partisan identity and ideology drive vote choices (Lewis - Beck et al . , 2011 ) . • Partisan defection is declining ( Smidt , 2017 ) . • The 2016 Presidential election was charged with racial tensions, anti - immigrant sentiment, and bias against women . • Racial resentment influenced turnout and vote choice for Obama (Krupnikov & Piston, 2015 ; Payne et al . , 2010 ) . • How did misogyny, anti - immigrant attitudes and racial resentment influence 2016 turnout and vote choice? • The 2016 Presidential election was charged with racism, misogyny and anti - immigrant sentiment. • Prejudice is a powerful motivator for behavior. • Partisan identity is a powerful motivator for voting. • Conflict can arise in voters when prejudice and partisanship influences operate in opposite directions. • Prejudiced Democrats face a conflict between voting for the in - party female candidate that embraces immigrants and minorities versus voting for the out - party candidate that is more consistent with their attitudes. • Non - prejudiced Republicans face a conflict between voting for their party’s candidate who is anti - immigrant, misogynistic, and accused of racism versus the out - party candidate that is more consistent with their attitudes. • This could drive some partisans to either desert their party and stay home on election day or defect to the other party. BACKGROUND PURPOSE Data • American National Election Studies 2016 • Self - report vote choice and validated voter turnout. • Misogyny (4 - items), anti - immigrant attitudes (2 - items), racial resentment (4 - items) • Vote coded as no vote, vote for Clinton, or vote for Trump • Vote validation is used to determine if a respondent voted; then self - report vote choice is used to determine which candidate the respondent voted for. Analysis • Multinomial logit predicting vote choice • Separate models for Democrats and Republicans • Controls: partisan identity strength, ideological self - placement, political interest, political efficacy, contact by campaign or mobilization group, and demographics. • Validated using American Life Panel data which produced the same results. MATERIALS AND METHODS This research indicates that in 2016 prejudice against women, immigrants, and African - Americans had significant impacts on turnout and vote choice. Democrats with negative attitudes towards women, blacks, and immigrants were more likely to vote for Trump . Interestingly, misogyny did not influence Republican’s turnout and vote choice instead positive attitudes towards blacks and immigrants increased the likelihood of them voting for Clinton. Democrats were demobilized by anti - immigrant sentiment while positive attitudes towards blacks demobilized Republicans. 1. Krupnikov, Y., & Piston, S. (2015). Racial prejudice, partisanship, and White turnout in elections with Black candidates. Political Behavior, 37(2), 397-418. 2. Lewis-Beck, M. S., Norpoth, H., Jacoby, W., & Weisberg, H. The American voter revisited. University of Michigan Press, 2008. 3. Payne, B. K., Krosnick, J. A., Pasek, J., Lelkes, Y., Akhtar, O., & Tompson, T. (2010). Implicit and explicit prejudice in the 2008 American presidential election. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 46(2), 367-374. 4. Smidt, C. D. (2017). Polarization and the decline of the American floating voter. American Journal of Political Science, 61(2), 365-381. • Prejudice against women, immigrants, and African - Americans increased the probability of Democrats defecting to Trump (2%, 8%, and 11% respectively). • Democrats with negative immigrant attitudes deserted Clinton and chose not to vote (32% increase). • Misogyny did not effect Republican vote choice or turnout. • Republicans with positive immigrant and African - American attitudes had increased probabilities of defecting to Clinton (4% and 8% respectively). • Republicans with positive immigrant and African - American attitudes deserted and chose not to vote (11% and 21% respectively). RESULTS References Conclusion