Decision Support Systems (DSS) Dr. Merle P. Martin MIS Department CSU Sacramento.

Decision Support Decision Support Systems (DSS) Systems (DSS)

Dr. Merle P. MartinDr. Merle P. MartinMIS DepartmentMIS DepartmentCSU SacramentoCSU Sacramento

AgendaAgenda Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort Planning What is a DSS?What is a DSS? Unstructured ProblemsUnstructured Problems DSS ComponentsDSS Components DSS ExamplesDSS Examples Group DSSGroup DSS

Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning Ski area designs require Ski area designs require

same inputsame input same decision modelsame decision model

Each resort offers :Each resort offers : different types of trailsdifferent types of trails to different skill levelsto different skill levels

Long-range objective: maximize Long-range objective: maximize profits for given terrain & market mixprofits for given terrain & market mix

Ski Area PlanningSki Area Planning Optimum design Optimum design

concentrates on balancing concentrates on balancing downhill / uphill capacitiesdownhill / uphill capacities

System of trails cannot easily System of trails cannot easily be changed once carvedbe changed once carved

Summer activities complicate designSummer activities complicate design Industry is capital intensiveIndustry is capital intensive

Ski Resort PlanningSki Resort PlanningPrimary ObjectivePrimary Objective

=Downhill Capacity(Trails)

Uphill Capacity(Lifts)

Market DemandProduction Capacity

Ski Area PlanningSki Area PlanningTerrain Capacity Analysis:Terrain Capacity Analysis: Examine physical Examine physical

attributes of mountainattributes of mountain Create initial set of trailsCreate initial set of trails Determine mountain's downhill Determine mountain's downhill

capacity (i.e., trail system)capacity (i.e., trail system)

Ski Area PlanningSki Area PlanningTerrain Capacity Analysis:Terrain Capacity Analysis: Examine physical Examine physical

attributes of the mountainattributes of the mountain Create initial set of trailsCreate initial set of trails Determine mountain's downhill Determine mountain's downhill

capacity (i.e., trail system)capacity (i.e., trail system)Market Analysis:Market Analysis: Match trail system to market mix Match trail system to market mix

Topography Map (Terrain)Topography Map (Terrain)

Steep slopeSteep slope

Gentle Gentle slopeslope

Expert and Expert and advanced advanced trailstrails

Expert and Expert and advanced advanced trailstrails

Novice & Novice & beginner beginner trailtrail

Novice & Novice & beginner beginner trailtrail

LiftsLifts

Physical DesignPhysical Design

Physical terrain Physical terrain and constraintsand constraints Slope of mountain sidesSlope of mountain sides Physical obstacles Physical obstacles

(e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.)(e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.) Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery)

Designer selects initial layoutDesigner selects initial layout Initial set of trailsInitial set of trails

Downhill capacity of skiers Downhill capacity of skiers calculatedcalculated Number of skiers per acre Number of skiers per acre

(judgmental)(judgmental) Type of skier (i.e., skill level)Type of skier (i.e., skill level) Regional densityRegional density

Physical DesignPhysical Design

Market AnalysisMarket Analysis Objective: match trail Objective: match trail

system to market demandssystem to market demands Seven skier skill levels:Seven skier skill levels:

BeginnerBeginner NoviceNovice Low intermediate Low intermediate IntermediateIntermediate High intermediateHigh intermediate AdvanceAdvance ExpertExpert

Market Mix: Market Mix: Percentage from Percentage from each category each category

Decision Support SystemDecision Support System Calculates trail capacityCalculates trail capacity

Matches skill levels to Matches skill levels to trail via slope gradestrail via slope grades

Takes into account skier Takes into account skier density per acre by skill leveldensity per acre by skill level

Calculates market mix Calculates market mix of skier skill levelsof skier skill levels Provides expected numbers from Provides expected numbers from

a given market mix distributiona given market mix distribution

Balances trail system Balances trail system to market mixto market mix Changes input parameters:Changes input parameters:

Trail attributesTrail attributes Density levelsDensity levels Market mix distributionMarket mix distribution

Examines uphill capacityExamines uphill capacity

Decision Support SystemDecision Support System

Skill LevelRoute

IDVertical Length Length Width

Low/Top% Grade

Acres/Skiers

Novice 1.01 500 3000 100 8/25 6.9/275

Low Intermediate

2.01 500 2800 150 15/30 9.6/289

Intermediate 9.03 800 3600 150 20/40 12.4/248

High Intermediate

10.03 1000 4200 150 20/45 14.5/217

Advance 12.03 1000 4300 150 20/60 14.8/148

Expert 11.03 1000 4000 150 60/22 13.8/138

Terrain Capacity AnalysisTerrain Capacity AnalysisSlope InventorySlope Inventory

Market Display:Market Display:Design for 3837 SkiersDesign for 3837 SkiersSkill Level Goal Goal CurrentBeginner .05 192 224Novice .10 384 1166Low Intermediate .20 767 1418Intermediate .30 1151 478High Intermediate .20 767 217Advance .10 384 164Expert .05 192 170

Number of Skiers

Market percent estimated Market percent estimated by the planner by the planner

Computed by Computed by the DSSthe DSS

Skill BalanceSkill Balance

Skill Level Acres Skiers DensityBeginner 4.5 100 22.3Novice 29.2 200 6.9Low Intermediate 47.3 400 8.5Intermediate 23.9 600 25.1High Intermediate 14.5 400 27.7Advance 16.4 200 12.2Expert 17.0 100 5.9Sum 152.7 2000 13.1

What is a DSS?What is a DSS?Sprague / Carlson:Sprague / Carlson:““Computer-based system thatComputer-based system thathelps the helps the decision makerdecision makerconfront confront ill-structured problemsill-structured problemsthrough through direct interactiondirect interaction with withdata and analysis data and analysis models.models.””

DSS PhilosophyDSS Philosophy Aid decision makerAid decision maker

not replace (not replace (ESES)) Decision maker remains in Decision maker remains in

controlcontrol Not always best decisionNot always best decision Change / flexibilityChange / flexibility Quick responseQuick response

DSS CharacteristicsDSS Characteristics Large amounts of dataLarge amounts of data Different data sourcesDifferent data sources Tailored to decision maker:Tailored to decision maker:

judgmentjudgment knowledgeknowledge intuitionintuition stylestyle personal traitspersonal traits

DSS CharacteristicsDSS Characteristics Graphically orientedGraphically oriented Optimize / heuristicsOptimize / heuristics ““What if”(What if”(sensitivitysensitivity) analysis) analysis Goal-seeking analysisGoal-seeking analysis Unstructured problemsUnstructured problems

Major Components of a DSSMajor Components of a DSS

Decision Decision MakerMaker

ModelsModels• FinancialFinancial• Statistical Statistical

analysis analysis • GraphicalGraphical• Project Project

mgmtmgmt

DSSDSSSoftwareSoftware

DSSDSSSoftwareSoftware

GraphicalGraphicalInterfaceInterfaceGraphicalGraphicalInterfaceInterface

Model Model BaseBase

Model Model BaseBase

Data BaseData BaseData BaseData Base

Model BaseModel Base FinancialFinancial Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis GraphicalGraphical Project ManagementProject Management Management ScienceManagement Science

Operations researchOperations research

Financial ModelsFinancial Models Cash FlowCash Flow

e.g., discounted paybacke.g., discounted payback Internal ROIInternal ROI Portfolio AnalysisPortfolio Analysis

stock marketstock market advertisingadvertising

SpreadsheetsSpreadsheets

Statistical AnalysisStatistical Analysis Descriptive (Descriptive (summarysummary)) Trend projectionTrend projection Hypothesis testingHypothesis testing Regression analysisRegression analysis

Management ScienceManagement Science InventoryInventory Queuing (Queuing (LineLine)) NetworkNetwork SearchSearch

DSS ExamplesDSS Examples American AirlinesAmerican Airlines

Price / rate selectionPrice / rate selection Frito-LayFrito-Lay

Advertising / promotion Advertising / promotion selectionselection

Juniper LumberJuniper Lumber Production schedulingProduction scheduling

DSS Examples DSS Examples KmartKmart

Price evaluationPrice evaluation Southern RailwaySouthern Railway

Train dispatching Train dispatching and forecastingand forecasting

Texas Oil & GasTexas Oil & Gas Potential drilling sitesPotential drilling sites

IssueIssueDoes your firm use DSS?Does your firm use DSS?

How?How? How could your firm use How could your firm use

a DSS? a DSS? What problems do you What problems do you

see with DSS?see with DSS?

Group Decision Group Decision Support System Support System ((GDSSGDSS))

interactive interactive computer-based computer-based system facilitating solution of system facilitating solution of unstructured problemsunstructured problems by a set by a set of decision makers working of decision makers working together as a together as a group.group.

GroupwareGroupwareGroupwareGroupware

DatabaseDatabaseDatabaseDatabase

GDSS ComponentsGDSS Components

Model BaseModel BaseModel BaseModel BaseGDSSGDSS

ProcessorProcessorGDSSGDSS

ProcessorProcessor

UserUserUserUser

DialogueDialogueManagerManagerDialogueDialogueManagerManager

GroupwareGroupware Brainstorming toolsBrainstorming tools Idea organizationIdea organization Prioritization / votingPrioritization / voting Electronic questionnairesElectronic questionnaires

pre-meetingpre-meeting Group DictionaryGroup Dictionary Stakeholder identificationStakeholder identification

GDSS LayoutGDSS Layout

WorkstationsWorkstations

Facilitator Facilitator Console & Console & Network Network ServerServer

ProjectorProjector

Projection ScreenProjection Screen

GDSS BenefitsGDSS Benefits Efficiency of group meetingsEfficiency of group meetings Quality of decisions reachedQuality of decisions reached

alternatives examinedalternatives examined participation / contributionparticipation / contribution

those who would those who would otherwise be silentotherwise be silent

decision outcomesdecision outcomes Leverage (way meetings run)Leverage (way meetings run)

e.g., human parallel processinge.g., human parallel processing

Factors Affecting Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes GDSS Outcomes AnonymityAnonymity

provides sense of equalityprovides sense of equality encourages participation by allencourages participation by all reduces:reduces:

problems with “problems with “group thinkgroup think”” dominance by strong personalitiesdominance by strong personalities

heightens conflict / impolitenessheightens conflict / impoliteness

GDSS FactorsGDSS Factors Facility DesignFacility Design

lighting and layoutlighting and layout Multiple public screensMultiple public screens Knowledge bases / databasesKnowledge bases / databases Network speedNetwork speed

GDSS FactorsGDSS Factors Fixed versus customized toolsFixed versus customized tools Software designSoftware design

ease of useease of use Group size / compositionGroup size / composition

individual satisfaction individual satisfaction increases with group sizeincreases with group size

SatisfactionSatisfaction participants not blocked out of groupparticipants not blocked out of group

Groupware MatrixGroupware Matrix

same timesame timesame timesame time

Face-to-Face Face-to-Face MeetingsMeetings

(electronic (electronic copyboards)copyboards)

Face-to-Face Face-to-Face MeetingsMeetings

(electronic (electronic copyboards)copyboards)

Teams in Teams in PlacePlace

(team room (team room tools)tools)

Teams in Teams in PlacePlace

(team room (team room tools)tools)

Cross-Distance Cross-Distance MeetingsMeetings

(audio/video (audio/video conferencing)conferencing)

Cross-Distance Cross-Distance MeetingsMeetings

(audio/video (audio/video conferencing)conferencing)

same same placeplacesame same placeplace

different different placesplaces

different different placesplaces

OngoingOngoingCoordinationCoordination(voice mail, (voice mail,

e-mail)e-mail)

OngoingOngoingCoordinationCoordination(voice mail, (voice mail,

e-mail)e-mail)

different timesdifferent timesdifferent timesdifferent times

IssueIssue GDSS is based on the GDSS is based on the

assumption that anonymity assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is desired. How important is anonymity in groups?is anonymity in groups? at work?at work? in class?in class? in distance-learning?in distance-learning?

WHAT DO YOU THINK?WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Points to RememberPoints to Remember What is a DSS?What is a DSS? DSS ComponentsDSS Components DSS ExamplesDSS Examples Group DSSGroup DSS