Decision support for technology uptake in smallholder farming systems: The example of TAGMI

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Decision support for technology uptake in smallholder farming systems:

The example of TAGMI

Dr Jennie Barron ([email protected])

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) University of York, UK

LSE seminar ILRI , Nairobi 8th May 2014

‘Business of research’ changing ? 1. Knowledge exist Multiple knowledge systems 2. Real solutions in real time Impact , relevance

3. Engage outside comfort zone ‘Science objectivity’

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Agricultural development discourse , e.g. Volta

Douxchamps et al 2014

Technologies promoted

Focus - Concept

Main actors

1960 1980 2000 1960 1960

TODAY: Agriculture back in national to global policies

• Agriculture is now key on more complex policy agenda o Sustainable o Climate smart o Energy

• Policies lag behind practice o No clear vision of the future of agriculture (Limpopo basin)

• Agriculture contributes to

o Meeting the broader policy goals o But, roles of smallholder farmers not well articulated (Limpopo basin)

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TODAY : Good (research) knowledge and evidence in technical fixes?

Example Ag. water synthesis in Limpopo (n=1400 references)

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Reducedtillage

In-situ waterretention

Evaporationsuppressants

Nutrient only Waterharvesting with

storage

Croppingsystem andAgroforestry

Combinationof two or moreinterventions

Yiel

d ch

ange

(%)

Improved AWM technology

n= 85

n= 190

n= 130

n= 247

n= 58

n= 195

n= 428

Magombeyi et al (forthcoming) : Agricultural water management systematic review and yield benefits for Limpopo

Yield response to ag. water technologies

TODAY : Good (research) knowledge and evidence in technical fixes?

Example Ag. water synthesis in Limpopo (n=1400 references)

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Reducedtillage

In-situ waterretention

Evaporationsuppressants

Nutrient only Waterharvesting with

storage

Croppingsystem andAgroforestry

Combinationof two or moreinterventions

Yiel

d ch

ange

(%)

Improved AWM technology

n= 85

n= 190

n= 130

n= 247

n= 58

n= 195

n= 428

Magombeyi et al (forthcoming) : Agricultural water management systematic review and yield benefits for Limpopo

Research opportunities

Yield increase potential

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www.seimapping.org/tagmi

Targeting AGwater Management Interventions:

PURPOSE :

• provide a decision support tool for AWM outscaling

PROCESS:

• Merging different type of knowledge through Bayes

network approach

• Show strength of prediction (uncertainty)

PRACTISE

• 3 AWM technologies for Volta and Limpopo

• User modifying input data and relations

• Reviews, literature

search

• Consultations (PGIS), MSc

theses

• Meetings, presentations,

dialogue • Consultations

National public,

(private) , NGOs

LBDC, VBDC , CPWF

Existing academic

knowledge

Farmers , local

community

MERGED KNOWLEDGE

In TAGMI model

Pooling knowledge in a consultative research process

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STEP 1: Process of consultation : incorporate various sources of knowledge

Consultation 2012 Consultation 2011 Synthesis

Farmer 81%

Farmer/

Community …

CBO 1%

Extension 5%

Public Service

s 2% Local

govt 6%

NGO 1%

Farmer 2%

CBO 5%

Public Services

9% Local govt 17%

NGO 5%

Nat govt 6%

Nat research

52%

Reg mgmnt

2%

Intl research

2%

CBO 3% Public

Services

7% Local govt 19% NGO

12%

Nat govt 11%

Nat researc

h 34%

Reg researc

h 5%

Reg mgmnt

8%

Intl researc

h 1%

CBO 2%

Public Services

4% Local govt 27%

NGO 23%

Nat govt 12%

Nat research

26%

Reg research

2%

Reg mgmnt

3%

Intl research

1%

STEP 2: Decide: What is relevant technologies? What is ‘success’?

AWM intervention Initial Consultation (2011)

PGIS in depth (2011,2012)

TAGMI representation (2013)_

Soil and water conservation /DRS/CES Planting pits (incl zai) Bunding /ridges/contour bunds/ploughing Tied ridges

BF BF GH GH

GH,BF GH,BF

Cover crop Tree planting Mulching

GH GH

BF

Shallow groundwater use Shallow wells Wastewater re-use

GH GH. BF

GH ,BF

Motorised water pumps ()small scale irrigation) Treadle pumps Drip irrigation Punched bag Micro irrigation Supplemental irrigation (rice)

GH, BF BF BF GH BF

GH,BF GH, BF

GH,BF

Earth dams Underground (in stream) dams Small dams /reservoirs Ferro cement tanks Roof waterharvesting Large scale irrigation scheme

GH. BF GH. BF

GH,BF GH,BF

GH,BF

3 AWM interventions

chosen for TAGMI

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STEP 3: Merge interdisciplinary factors with Bayes approach

STEP 3: Merge interdisciplinary factors with Bayes approach

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STEP 3: Merge interdisciplinary factors with Bayes approach

STEP 4: Develop web based interface in open source and accessible data layers

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http://www.seimapping.org/tagmi/index.php

Example: Data input and impact

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RESULTS: Current TAGMI predictions Volta

SWC Small scale

irrigation Small

reservoirs

1.RESULTS: current TAGMI predictions

# districts

High/Med/Low

Cropland Total BF: 2846941ha

Total GH: 5102661 ha

High/Med/Low

Strength

prediction

Small reservoirs

Burkina Faso 50%/32/18 47/20/32 Low

Ghana 62%/15/23 58/36/7 Low

RESULTS: Current TAGMI predictions Volta

Example: Small reservoirs out-scaling potentials

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RESULTS: Testing climate change impact on potential

Volta basin: Potential out-scaling small reservoirs under CC

Current rainfall

Burkina Faso 2 846 941 44/33/24 45/41/15 43/32/25 45/38/17 41/34/26 45/36/19

Ghana 5 102 661 56/23/21 50/26/24 53/24/23 41/19/40 51/23/26 35/20/45

Present-day Driest scenario Wettest scenario

Volta Total cropland (ha)* # districts (%)

High/Med/low

Cropland (%) # districts (%)

High/Med/low

Cropland (%) # districts (%)

High/Med/low

Cropland (%)

Current rainfall

-20%

Current rainfall

+50%

Indicator of succe

ss

Indicator of success

Can we calibrate/validate?

CPWF L2:

Requires functional

institutional structures

CPWF L2:

Requires adequate ‘resources’

- Money, manpower, skills,

equipment, etc.

CPWF L3:

Poor soil management/ fertility

CPWF L3:

Improving market access

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Can we calibrate / validate ?

TAGMI predictions match actual adoption rates for about half of the provinces

Weighting the factors differently : Does it matter on the results?

Sensitivity : Does the world view matter?

DfID livelihood framework Social-ecological system

Ostrom (2009)

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LESSONS FOR RESEARCH

• There is opportunity for out-scaling of SWC , smallholder irrigation and small reservoirs but prediction strength is low

• Data on social-human layers are critical, but rarely available

• High agreement between factors affecting out-scaling across technologies, countries and basins

• The importance and benefit of investments in “Best Practice In Implementation” (‘Due diligence’ ) to achieve successful outscaling

TAGMI taken to practise: ‘doing research for development’

• CPWF in Volta and Limpopo developed ‘proof of concept’

• Generic approach: easily done for other technologies and scales

• Spin-off in new Bayes model for shallow groundwater irrigation N Ghana

• Requests from funders and development agents for possible development

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www.seimapping.org/TAGMI

We thank all contributors: absent colleagues

farmers, boundary partners and participants in consultations and events

VBDC and V1 colleagues, and LBDC and L1 colleagues

funders

Thank you!