Decision Support for Public Stake-holders assessing utilities responses to new EPA rules for coal-fired power plants Dalia Patiño-Echeverri Nicholas School of the Environment - Duke University CEDM Annual Meeting May 21-22, 2012, Carnegie Mellon University 1
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Decision Support for Public Stake- holders assessing utilities responses to new EPA rules for coal-fired power plants Dalia Patiño-Echeverri Nicholas School.
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Decision Support for Public Stake-holders assessing utilities responses to new EPA rules for coal-fired power plants
Dalia Patiño-Echeverri
Nicholas School of the Environment - Duke UniversityCEDM Annual Meeting
May 21-22, 2012, Carnegie Mellon University
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Motivation Upcoming EPA regulations for power plants are forcing
utilities to retrofit or replace coal-fired power plants
PUCs are required to assess prudency of these investments but do not have adequate tools
Other interveners that could provide alternative decision analysis to PUCs often lack tools as well
Can we help improve decision making in this transcendental and complex issue?
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Goal of this project: Provide decision making tools to facilitate analysis that: Is prospective and comprehensive
Considers current and potential future rules Considers “all” possible investment alternatives
Explicitly accounts for the multiple-criteria affecting the decision Criteria are identified, ranked, and weighted Tradeoffs between criteria are quantified
Explicitly accounts for uncertainty judgments
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Identify role
Identify multiple criteria
Determine how uncertainty is characterized
Expand / Improve PowerOptInvest
PUC Project
UC Berkeley, UCLA, UMN, UNC, USF
In collaboration with:
Using inputs from CEDM research:
Communication materials on CCS, renewables . L.Fleishman
Expert elicitation materials Morgan, G.
Expert weighting approaches, Guvenc et al.
Cost and environmental performance of Wind, natural gas, demand response
With help from:Seven MEM students working on their MP
Nicholas Institute Staff
Multiple-criteria affecting PUC decision making example 1: West Virginia: “to ensure that reasonably
priced and reliable utility services are available to all customers and to increase business investment, job creation/retention, and the state’s overall economic competitiveness”
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Multiple-criteria affecting PUC decision making example 2: Colorado: “Regulate effectively so that the
people of Colorado receive safe, reliable, and reasonably priced services consistent with the economic, environmental and social values of our state”
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Multi-criteria decision making tool
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Criteria Metric
Weight
Low unemployment
High unemployment
Capital and OM cost $/MWh 50 45Job creation / retention # jobs per plant / ph 20 30…
Investment alternative
Contribution to Criteria 1: COE Contribution to Criteria 2: JobsScenario 1: High NG price