Hoosier Engines of Job Growth 1 Indiana Exports on Pace for Record Year in 2007 3 Monthly Metrics: Indiana’s Economic Dashboard 5 Regional Labor Force and Unemployment Rates 6 Moving “Up One Level:” Improving Job Prospects by Developing Basic Skills 7 The Economic Impact of Libraries in Indiana 10 Indiana Population Projections, 2005 to 2040 12 inside in context INDIANA ’S WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY DECEMBER 2007 A State & University Partnership for Economic Development Indiana Department of Workforce Development & Indiana Business Research Center, IU Kelley School of Business Hoosier Engines of Job Growth O ne of Indiana’s engines for job growth and job creation actually has engines: the auto industry. Despite widespread contraction in this industry, concentrated among domestic auto makers, Indiana’s employment in the automobile manufacturing industry (NAICS 3361, manufacturing entire vehicle, not auto parts) grew 53 percent between 1997 and 2006, according to annual averages from Current Employment Statistics (CES). Based on September CES not- seasonally adjusted estimates, national employment in this industry sector declined 3.6 percent since September 2006, while Indiana employment grew 4.6 percent during that same period; that's 600 new jobs. Texas was the only other state reflecting employment growth over the year (see Table 1, which is ranked by 2006 share of U.S. employment). Indiana’s auto manufacturing growth has been largely fueled by the addition of non-domestic auto makers to the mix, including Toyota, Honda and Subaru. Greensburg’s Honda plant, set to open in 2008, 1 will bring an additional 2,000 jobs to this industry. In addition, a Toyota/Subaru collaborative venture announced last year 2 is expected to add 1,000 jobs in the Lafayette area during 2007. Another industry segment in the transportation sector, motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (NAICS 3362)—which includes motor vehicle bodies, truck trailers, motor homes, travel trailers and campers—has grown by 49.6 percent (13,100 jobs) between 1997 and 2006 in Indiana, compared to U.S. growth of 13.9 percent (22,000 jobs). Employment in this industry surged in 2006 in response to emergency housing demands in the wake of Hurricane Katrina and has been shedding jobs over the last 12 months, both nationally and in Indiana. However, Indiana employment appears to be stabilizing, with August 2007 employment of 37,500 matching that of August 2005. October Unemployment Indiana's October unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points below the U.S. rate, coming in at 4.2 percent. *seasonally adjusted *in current dollars Source: IBRC, using WISER Trade data Value of Exports in 2006 TABLE 1: AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING FOR STATES THAT PUBLISH MONTHLY BREAK-OUTS OF AUTO MANUFACTURING *Average annual Note: Data are not seasonally adjusted Source: Indiana Department of Workforce Development, using Current Employment Statistics data $100 billion or more (2 states) $20 billion to $99 billion (14 states) $10 billion to $19 billion (10 states) $4 billion to $9 billion (10 states) Less than $4 billion (15 states) Learn more about Indiana’s exports on page 3 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Indiana United States State Employment Percent of United States Percent Change 1997* 2006* September 2007 1997 2006 Change 1997–2006 September 2006–2007 Michigan 84,700 56,800 51,200 29.5 24.1 -5.5 -32.9 -10.8 Ohio 36,800 28,000 26,000 12.8 11.9 -1.0 -23.9 -5.1 Kentucky 17,000 16,400 17,100 5.9 6.9 1.0 -3.5 -2.8 Missouri 18,600 12,800 11,000 6.5 5.4 -1.1 -31.2 -3.5 Indiana 8,100 12,400 13,700 2.8 5.3 2.4 53.1 4.6 Alabama 1,600 12,300 12,100 0.6 5.2 4.7 668.8 -0.8 Texas 5,600 8,900 10,000 2.0 3.8 1.8 58.9 6.4 California 7,000 8,700 8,400 2.4 3.7 1.2 24.3 -2.3 Oklahoma 4,300 3,100 2,600 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -27.9 -3.7 United States 286,800 236,100 228,800 -17.7 -3.6
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December 2007 InContext · inside incontext INDIANA’S WORKFORCE ... California 7,000 8,700 8,400 2.4 3.7 1.2 24.3 -2.3 Oklahoma 4,300 3,100 2,600 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -27.9 -3.7 United
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Hoosier Engines of Job Growth 1
Indiana Exports on Pace for Record Year in 2007
3
Monthly Metrics: Indiana’s Economic Dashboard
5
Regional Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
6
Moving “Up One Level:” Improving Job Prospects by Developing Basic Skills
7
The Economic Impact of Libraries in Indiana 10
Indiana Population Projections, 2005 to 2040
12
inside
incontextINDIANA’S WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY DECEMBER 2007
A State & University Partnership for Economic DevelopmentIndiana Department of Workforce Development &Indiana Business Research Center, IU Kelley School of Business
Hoosier Engines of Job Growth
One of Indiana’s engines for
job growth and job creation
actually has engines: the
auto industry. Despite widespread
contraction in this industry,
concentrated among domestic auto
makers, Indiana’s employment in the
automobile manufacturing industry
(NAICS 3361, manufacturing entire
vehicle, not auto parts) grew 53 percent
between 1997 and 2006, according
to annual averages from Current
Employment Statistics (CES).
Based on September CES not-
seasonally adjusted estimates, national
employment in this industry sector
declined 3.6 percent since September
2006, while Indiana employment grew
4.6 percent during that same period;
that's 600 new jobs. Texas was the
only other state reflecting employment
growth over the year (see Table 1,
which is ranked by 2006 share of U.S.
employment).
Indiana’s auto manufacturing
growth has been largely fueled by
the addition of non-domestic auto
makers to the mix, including Toyota,
Honda and Subaru. Greensburg’s
Honda plant, set to open in 2008,1 will
bring an additional 2,000 jobs to this
industry. In addition, a Toyota/Subaru
collaborative venture announced last
year2 is expected to add 1,000 jobs in
the Lafayette area during 2007.
Another industry segment in the
transportation sector, motor vehicle
body and trailer manufacturing (NAICS
3362)—which includes motor vehicle
bodies, truck trailers, motor homes,
travel trailers and campers—has grown
by 49.6 percent (13,100 jobs) between
1997 and 2006 in Indiana, compared
to U.S. growth of 13.9 percent
(22,000 jobs). Employment in this
industry surged in 2006 in response
to emergency housing demands in the
wake of Hurricane Katrina and has
been shedding jobs over the last 12
months, both nationally and in Indiana.
However, Indiana employment appears
to be stabilizing, with August 2007
employment of 37,500 matching that of
August 2005.
October UnemploymentIndiana's October unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points below the U.S. rate, coming in at 4.2 percent.
*seasonally adjusted
*in current dollarsSource: IBRC, using WISER Trade data
Value of Exports in 2006
TABLE 1: AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURING FOR STATES THAT PUBLISH MONTHLY BREAK-OUTS OF AUTO MANUFACTURING
*Average annualNote: Data are not seasonally adjustedSource: Indiana Department of Workforce Development, using Current Employment Statistics data
$100 billion or more (2 states)
$20 billion to $99 billion (14 states)
$10 billion to $19 billion (10 states)
$4 billion to $9 billion (10 states)
Less than $4 billion (15 states)
Learn more about Indiana’s exports on page 3
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Indiana
United States
State
Employment Percent of United States Percent Change
1997* 2006* September 2007 1997 2006 Change 1997–2006September 2006–2007
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Industry
Indiana United States
Change in Jobs
Percent Change
Percent Change
Total Nonfarm 18,200 0.6 1.8
Natural Resources & Mining 200 2.9 6.3
Leisure and Hospitality 5,700 2.0 3.7
Government 4,800 1.1 1.0
Other Services 1,100 1.0 1.2
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 3,400 0.6 1.7
Financial Activities 700 0.5 1.1
Professional & Business Services 1,100 0.4 3.1
Educational & Health Services 1,300 0.3 3.7
Information 0 0.0 1.3
Manufacturing -4,500 -0.8 -1.7
Note: Even seasonally adjusted estimates can show artificial changes if there are shifts in the timing of events. For example, the school year may start earlier than in the past, creating an employment surge in Augustthat the estimates model was expecting in September. To help understand the data, it can be useful toaverage three months of estimates. The average is calculated for the current three months and then repeated for each prior month so that each data point represents the average of three months' estimates. Also note the difference in volatility between the benchmarked data (prior to January 2007) and the monthly estimates. Benchmarked data have been revised using data elements not available at the time of the original estimates.Source: Current Employment Statistics
Reading Comprehension Reading step-by-step instructions for completing a form
Reading a memo from management describing new personnel policies
Reading a scientifi c journal article describing surgical procedures
Writing Taking a telephone message Writing a memo to staff outlining new directives Writing a novel for publication
Mathematics Count the amount of change to be given to a customer
Calculate the square footage of a new home under construction
Develop a mathematical model to simulate and resolve an engineering problem
Active Listening Taking a customer’s order Answering inquiries regarding credit references Presiding as judge in a complex legal disagreement
Speaking Greeting tourists and explaining tourist attractions
Interviewing applicants to obtain personal and work history
Arguing a legal case before the supreme court
Critical Thinking Determining whether a subordinate has a good excuse for being late
Evaluating customer complaints and determining appropriate responses
Writing a legal brief challenging a federal law
Source: O*NET 12.0 Database and Data Dictionary, available at www.onetcenter.org/database.html
TABLE 1: DESCRIPTION OF SKILL LEVELS
“While every job entails a unique mix of skill requirements, higher paying jobs overwhelmingly expect workers to improve competence in basic skills like reading, writing and arithmetic, as well as active listening, speaking and critical thinking.”
8 incontext December 2007 www.incontext.indiana.edu
per year)—can make the transition
to become maintenance and repair
workers ($32,170 per year). While
extensive training or certification may
not be necessary for this transition,
skill level requirements are 27 percent
higher for reading comprehension,
15 percent higher for writing and 39
percent higher for mathematics. In
Region 7, telemarketers and door-
to-door sales workers ($14,105 per
year) can become customer service
representatives ($25,355 per year)
through moderate on-the-job training.
However, skill level requirements for
customer service representatives are
considerably higher—43 percent in
reading comprehension, 31 percent in
writing and 29 percent in mathematics.
One of the few “up one level” job
transitions that does not require higher
levels of these three basic skills is
the transition from forklift/industrial
truck operator ($21,320 per year) to
heavy and tractor-trailer truck driver
($36,406 per year) in Region 3. In
such rare cases, there may be external
labor market forces specific to these
occupations that greatly affect the link
between skills and wages.
Comparing regions in Figure 1, we
see that the basic skill requirements
of “up one level” occupations are
substantially higher than frequently
listed jobs in all regions. On average,
skill level requirements for reading
comprehension increased by 11
percent across all regions with a high
of 18 percent in Region 5 and a low
of 4 percent in Region 3. Increases
in writing and mathematics skill
requirements across all regions are
even higher at 17 percent and 19
percent, respectively. Overall, required
skill level increases are highest in
Region 8 where moving up one level
required a 17 percent increase in
reading comprehension, as well as 27
percent increases in both writing and
mathematics.
In most cases, increases in skill
requirements are accompanied with
comparably high salary increases (see
Figure 2). The exception is Region 1
where job transitions involving small
basic skill increases are still rewarded
with high salary increases, possibly
due to effects of the nearby Chicago
labor market. However, it comes as no
surprise that job transitions in Region
6, which expect the smallest increases
in basic skills, have the lowest average
salary increase of only $5,054—just
half of the $11,098 average increase
across all regions.
FIGURE 2: AVERAGE “UP ONE LEVEL” SALARY INCREASES BY ECONOMIC GROWTH REGION
4. O*NET determined these required skill levels through
surveys of incumbent workers and occupational
experts.
5. Michael F. Thompson, “The Demand for Soft Skills:
Key Skills for Indiana’s Growing Occupations through
2014” InContext (September 2007): 1-2.
6. More information on these skills is available on the
O*NET website: www.onetcenter.org.
—Michael F. Thompson, Economic Research Analyst, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University
Indiana 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 110%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Active ListeningSpeakingCritical Thinking
Economic Growth Region
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE “UP ONE LEVEL” SKILL INCREASES IN ACTIVE LISTENING, SPEAKING AND CRITICAL THINKING BY ECONOMIC GROWTH REGION
Source: IBRC, using data from the Indiana Department of Workforce Development and O*NET
10 incontext December 2007 www.incontext.indiana.edu
What is a library worth?
This article highlights
findings from a recent
study designed to help Indiana libraries
identify and quantify their benefits in
a systematic and objective manner. The
project was conducted by the Indiana
Business Research Center on behalf of
the Indiana State Library to determine
the economic impact of libraries
and their role in supporting business
and economic development in their
communities.
The research employed three
main tools: (1) economic impact and
benefit-cost analyses of libraries, (2)
surveys of public libraries, businesses,
public school officials, Chambers of
Commerce and local development
officials, and (3) case studies of 12
local libraries.
Measurable Economic Benefits of LibrariesThe latest available data show that
public libraries employ nearly 7,000
people (full- and part-time) and
contribute nearly $263 million to
Indiana’s economy through payrolls and
expenditures on goods and services.1
Library spending has a ripple effect
throughout the local and state economy,
accounting for an additional 2,000 jobs
and $216 million in economic activity
in Indiana.
In addition, Indiana’s academic
(college and university) libraries have
a combined staff of more than 2,200
full-time equivalent employees.2 These
libraries also circulate $136 million
throughout the state economy in the
form of wages and expenditures on
goods and services. The economic
ripple effects of academic library
spending support 640 additional jobs
and create approximately $112 million
in incremental economic activity in the
state.
Excluding the intangible benefits
of libraries, as well as the benefits
stemming from use of the INSPIRE
database portal,3 the total market value
of the goods and services provided by
the state’s public libraries is estimated
at $629.9 million (see Figure 1).Approximately 6.05 million Hoosiers
live within a library district, making
the per capita market benefits for
library services roughly $104 while
the per capita costs are just shy of
$44. As a result, for each dollar of
public library expenditures, the average
Indiana community receives $2.38 in
direct benefits. This 2.38-to-1 benefit-
to-cost ratio represents a conservative
and defendable estimate of the value
Hoosiers derive from their libraries.
Economic DevelopmentMany business and community leaders
are enthusiastic about the role that their
library plays in economic and business
development; however, the performance
across libraries is uneven.
Many communities consider their
libraries to be a social and economic
anchor. This sentiment—that libraries
contribute more broadly than to just
economic prosperity—is shared both
by patrons and local leaders. In many
of the case study locations, business
and civic leaders are proud of their
library. In several communities, a visit to the library is an important stop on the area tour when local leaders are trying to lure a firm to locate in their community. In some cases, all the local leaders surveyed were convinced that their public library helps attract new business. In other communities, however, local leaders strongly disagree with the statement that the library attracts new business.
Academic libraries tend to view
themselves as having a more important
role in economic and business
development than do public libraries.
This isn’t surprising, given that
businesses fortunate to be within close
proximity to academic libraries—
especially those close to public
universities—would probably consider
academic collections and resources
to be broader and deeper than the
offerings of local public libraries.
Even though patrons are almost as
likely to use a library for enhancing
their business or workplace skills
as for researching their ancestry, a
significantly higher proportion of
library staff have special qualifications
in genealogy research than in business
The Economic Impact of Libraries in Indiana
$479,426,282Adult Circulation
$67,921,137Children’s Circulation
$54,431,520Reference Questions
$7,801,163Meeting Rooms
$6,274,256Children’s Program Attendance
$4,990,495Adult Program Attendance
$7,253,428Computer Use
$1,813,357Magazines and Newspapers
FIGURE 1: MARKET VALUE OF INDIANA’S PUBLIC LIBRARY CIRCULATION AND SERVICES, 2005
RecommendationsAs a result of this study, the Indiana
Business Research Center identified
six ways in which Indiana libraries
can develop more active economic
development and business growth
strategies:
1. Implement a strategic program to expand the focus on business and economic development. The
Indiana State Library should commit
itself to a strategic program to help
public libraries support the needs of
business and economic development.
This program would encourage an
entrepreneurial focus and mindset
among library directors. Ideally, each
library would designate a “business
point person” to lead efforts to
bolster the library’s role in economic
development in the community.
2. Enhance outreach to the business community. Based on
the survey responses and in-depth
case studies from this research,
many libraries have forged strong
relationships with the business
community (see Table 1). However,
even those business and community
leaders that are satisfied with their
libraries think public libraries can do
more to promote their business-related
services. In some cases, local libraries
need to start reaching out to business
leaders, many of whom do not think
of libraries as a primary source of
information.
3. Expand business and economic development services. Libraries can
augment services to the business
community in the following ways:
providing access to
business reference
librarians and those
trained to serve the
needs of economic
development; expanding
database offerings
(such as Dun &
Bradstreet); enhancing
web-based applications
that allow patrons
to access or request
resources through the
local library’s website;
sponsoring seminars
and workshops that are
related to economic,
business or career
development; and
promoting use of library
meeting room space.
4. Refine and expand library-use data collection. Small improvements
in library-use data collection would
allow for a richer understanding
of libraries’ economic impacts and
could prove helpful when supporting
libraries’ value. Recommended changes
include reporting disaggregated library
circulation data, collecting data on
non-circulation library uses (such
as meeting rooms and electronic
databases), and tracking use by
businesses separately from use by other
patrons.
5. Develop their own cost-benefit analysis. Local public libraries should
be encouraged to produce their own
annual benefit-to-cost analysis. An
Excel-based library value calculator
is available at www.stats.indiana.edu/
topic/libraries.asp. By comparing
its total market value to its annual
operating expenses, a local library can
estimate its benefit-to-cost ratio. This
would allow libraries to include any
specialized services they offer, such as
educational programs or tax preparation
services.
6. Aggressively promote their economic significance. With a solid
cost-benefit analysis in hand, local
libraries should proactively share
information about the economic
contribution they make to the
community. A well-orchestrated
campaign can include press releases,
postings on library property and
websites, and mailings to local
politicians and community leaders.
Steps like these should help raise
awareness of the economic benefits of
libraries.
To read the full report online, visit www.stats.indiana.edu/topic/libraries.asp.
Notes1. At the time the report was written, the latest public
library data were from 2005.
2. At the time the report was written, the latest academic
library data were from 2004.
3. At the time the report was written, INSPIRE data from
the Indiana Cooperative Library Services Authority
(INCOLSA) were unavailable.
—Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University
How benefi cial to business and economic growth in your community are the following library services or resources?
Percent of Respondents Indicating
Moderately Benefi cial
Very Benefi cial
High-speed Internet access for public use 15 69Business periodicals 21 58Space and facilities for holding business meetings
17 52
Economic and/or demographic data and statistics
32 44
Books or other information on starting or managing a business
37 41
Government documents and/or databases 33 37Directories of businesses (local, state or national)
41 31
Resources for nonprofi t planning 33 28Resources for real-estate related research 33 23Business-related programs or workshops 33 23Legal information or resources 48 21Small-business tax information 43 20Other specifi c business-related databases 45 19Local job postings 26 17Information on patents and/or trademarks 35 10
TABLE 1: PERCENT OF COMMUNITY LEADERS SURVEYED INDICATING THE FOLLOWING SERVICES ARE BENEFICIAL, 2007
Source: IBRC, using 2007 Community Leaders Survey
12 incontext December 2007 www.incontext.indiana.edu
Over the next 35 years, the
number of Hoosiers age 65
and older will increase by 90
percent. That means that in 2040, one
in five Hoosiers will be of traditional
retirement age. Meanwhile, the number
of people in the 25–54 age group—a
key labor force demographic—will
decline.
These are just a few of the insights
from the recently released state and
county population projections by the
Indiana Business Research Center.
Other highlights include:
Indiana will add roughly •
940,000 residents by 2040—a
15 percent increase from 2005.
Indiana’s population will •
surpass 7 million in 2030.
Sixty-five of Indiana’s 92 •
counties will increase in
population.
The 10-county Indianapolis •
metro area will account for 54
percent of Indiana’s growth.
Indiana’s Aging Population The primary force behind Indiana’s
changing population dynamics is the
inevitable aging of the baby boom
generation. At present, this group is
between the ages of 44 and 61 and,
by 2030, this entire cohort will be of
traditional retirement age. This fact
promises to transform the state.
Figure 1 illustrates the share of total
population that several age groups will
hold over the next 35 years. The share
of population age 65 and older will
increase from roughly 12 percent of the
total to nearly 21 percent. During this
period, the 65 and older population will
surpass the 0–14 and 15–24 age groups
on its way from the smallest to the
third largest of these segments. Each of
the other age groups will see its share
of total population decline by 2040.
An aging population is not unique
to Indiana, of course, but is a national
trend. In fact, when compared to the
rest of the nation, Indiana is relatively
young with a 2006 median age of 36.3,
which ranks in the bottom third of all
states according to the U.S. Census
Bureau. The state’s median age is
expected to increase to 39.8 years by
2040.
There is a wide disparity in aging
patterns among Indiana counties. In
2005, the youngest counties exhibit one
of two primary characteristics. There
are major college student populations in
Delaware (33.5 percent), Monroe (27.9
percent), and Tippecanoe (27.7 percent)
counties. Meanwhile, there are sizable
Amish and Mennonite populations that
tend to have higher fertility rates in
Adams (33.4 percent), Elkhart (33.4
percent), and LaGrange (29.8 percent)
counties. Each of these counties will
age modestly over the next 35 years,
with the exception of Adams County,
which will be one of six counties to get
younger over the next three decades.
At the other end of the spectrum,
10 counties had a median age of 40
or older in 2005. These counties are
largely rural. As Figure 2 shows, many
Indiana Population Projections, 2005 to 2040
2005 2010 2015 20252020 2030 2035 204010%
15%
20%
25%
30%0–14 15–24 25–44 45–64 65 and Older
Per
cent
of T
otal
Pop
ulat
ion
Age Groups:
FIGURE 1: PROJECTED SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 2005 TO 2040
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
0 23 46 69 92
40 or Older
35 to 39.9
30 to 34.9
Under 30
Number of Counties
FIGURE 2: PROJECTED DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTIES BY MEDIAN AGE, 2005 TO 2040
Implications of an Aging Population This inevitable aging trend could have
some serious impacts on Indiana and its
economy. First, will Indiana have the
labor force to grow, or even maintain,
its current level of economic activity?
Figure 3 highlights the percent
change from 2005 to 2040 in the 25–54
age group for Indiana as a whole as
well as for counties in metropolitan
statistical areas and those that are not.
Indiana will see a steady decline in this
important labor force demographic over
the next 15 years before it rebounds
from 2020 to 2040.
Metropolitan areas of the state will
experience a similar, less drastic trend.
Urban areas will see the 25–54 age
group decline slightly between 2010
and 2020 before it begins to exceed
current levels in 2025 and beyond.
The most alarming development is the
likelihood of a 9 percent decline in this
age group in rural Indiana by 2020.
These labor force realities, which will
be faced by much of the United States,
could hinder prospects for Indiana's
economic growth over the next 20
years, particularly in rural areas of the
state.
Decreased economic activity as
a result of a shrinking labor force
is by no means a certainty for our
state. This decline could be offset by
increased migration (both domestic and
international), reduced out-migration
(brain drain) or increased productivity.
Additionally, there is a growing
belief that many baby boomers will
continue to work—whether by choice or
necessity—into their retirement years.
There are other implications of an
aging population. For instance, the
15–64 age group traditionally bears
the financial burden of supporting
the non-working residents through
costs associated with raising children
or supporting pension funds, social
security and health care programs.
Figure 4 describes the growth of
the 0–14 and 65 and over age groups
relative to the working age population.
This relationship is often referred
to as the dependency ratio. In 2005,
there were roughly two working
aged Hoosiers for every dependent
(a 2-1 ratio). This ratio will drop to
approximately 1.5-1 by 2040 and will
place increased pressure on the labor
force.
Patterns in Population Change More than half of Indiana’s growth
by 2040 will take place within
the 10 counties that constitute the
Indianapolis metro. In fact, five
Indianapolis suburban counties can
expect to grow by more than 30
percent, led by Hamilton County with
an astounding projected increase of
85 percent. Figure 5 illustrates the
anticipated population change for all
Indiana counties over the next 35 years.
Northeast Indiana is another region
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ages 15–64 Ages 0–14 & 65 or Older
Dep
ende
ncy
Rat
io
FIGURE 3: PROJECTED CHANGE IN THE 25–54 AGE GROUP, 2005 TO 2040 FIGURE 4: PROJECTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS, 2005 TO 2040
Source: Indiana Business Research Center Source: Indiana Business Research Center
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
20052010
2015 20202025
2030 2035 2040
Metro Counties (46 counties)
Nonmetro Counties (46 counties)
Indiana
Per
cent
Cha
nge
Allen
Jay
Lake
Knox
Vigo
White
Jasper
Cass
Clay
Pike
Rush
Parke
Grant
Greene
LaPorte
Perry
Clark
Ripley
Noble
Gibson
Porter
Wells
Posey
Elkhart
Owen
Henry
Boone
Miami
Putnam
Jackson
Dubois
Shelby
Pulaski Fulton
Marion
Wayne
Clinton
Sullivan
Harrison
Benton Carroll
Daviess Martin
Orange
Kosciusko
Monroe
Morgan
Madison
Newton
Marshall
Warrick
Wabash
Warren
Brown
Franklin
Adams
Starke
Spencer
Decatur
Randolph
Lawrence
Whitley
De Kalb
FountainHamilton
Washington
St. Joseph
TippecanoeTipton
Jennings
Delaware
Hendricks
LaGrange
Montgomery
Jefferson
Steuben
Howard
Johnson
Scott
Hun
tingt
on
Hancock
Crawford
DearbornBartholomew
FayetteUnion
Floyd
Switzerland
Ohio
Verm
illio
n
Vander-burgh
Blackford
More than 30% (7 counties)
20.1% to 30% (2 counties)
10.1% to 20% (26 counties)
0% to 10% (30 counties)
Decline (27 counties)
FIGURE 5: PROJECTED PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION, 2005 TO 2040
Source: Indiana Business Research Center
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December 2007Volume 8, Number 12
(continued from page 13…)
which can expect to see significant
growth with LaGrange, Elkhart, Adams
and Allen counties each projected to
increase by more than 20 percent.
Meanwhile, 27 counties are likely to
have fewer residents by 2040.
About the Projections It is important to keep in mind
that these projections are purely
demographic, meaning that they rely
exclusively on recent birth, death and
migration trends. Therefore, these
figures are a reflection of what Indiana
and its communities will look like if
past conditions persist. No assumptions
have been made about future economic
or environmental conditions.
Also, population dynamics,
particularly migration, can be difficult
to predict. Long-range projections
can be subject to significant error.
Therefore, it is often useful to pay
greater attention to trends during the
next 15 to 20 years.
To access the entire population
projection dataset, please visit www.
stats.indiana.edu/topic/projections.asp.
—Matt Kinghorn, Demographer, Indiana Business Research Center, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University