day.1

DECISION SUPPORT &

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

The New Science of Management Decision Herbert Simon

(1960)Wall Street Journal -Exodus (30Sep05)

Wall Street Journal -Terrorist (17Feb06)Caspian Sea Pipeline Project (2012)

ProQuest assignment: analytic hierarchy process

TEDSS Case

young field

still dynamic

day.1TEDSS, Decision Types, Phases & DSS

1b TEDDS illustrates decision types supported by DSS (details: More Efficient Exodus, WSJ)13 benefits of building DSS (similar: regression)

S-1 the journey into decision making will lead to a major revolution in management and organization (observed in

CIO cases)2 TERRAIN MAP of decision making is needed because:

S-2 different (IT) techniques are required for different phases of the journey

3 TYPES OF DECISIONSS-3a Programmed (routine sequence of responses so studied / programmed)

S-3b opportunity use ITS to program decisions (TPS, MIS JIT)

S-3a Nonprogrammed (unique & ill-structured) S-3c require flexible / interactive (IT) techniques (DSS, AI)

4 In reality, decisions exist in continuum requiring a complement of ITS: PG &Vanity Fair used DSS (Stonyfield : Access) to access & analyze information from TPS & IOS S.4

5.a PHASES OF DECISIONS S-6.2 complex / unstructured problems are typically encountered in design

& choice phases of nonprogrammed decisions DSS(AI) useful

Assignment: proquest search

(analyic hierarchy process)

Build:Buzzsaw; Dock:Sparks; Home:TEDDS,PredictTerrorist,N-Site; Indian:Covisint,DBMS; Jackpot:WiNet,Celtics; Rx:CPOE-EMR

2 WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in nonprogrammed decisions

6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions

9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate (design / choice phases of) complex judgmental (involving qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)

10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities

from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components

assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)

DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications

design

choice

day.2

GDSS

16.a What is GDSS?17 Hiring technical manager is complex, ill- structured, team

decision 18 Design and choice phases of GDSS

relate to table handouts22 Benefits of GDSS

day.3

A Decision Support System to Save Lives

1. You cannot see, hear, or smell nuclear radiation, but it’s deadly all the same. In 1986 about 3.5 million people in Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to it when there were two explosions in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear plant. Some of the effects are only now emerging, like the high incidence of thyroid cancer in children. Experts agree that many health problems would have been avoided if an evacuation plan had been in place.

2. To avoid such a human tragedy in Virginia, power plant administrators commissioned the development of TEDSS to assist in creating an evacuation plan in case of a nuclear power plant disaster there. TEDSS is a special type of IT system called a decision support system. If a nuclear disaster were to occur, planners can use TEDSS to quickly (speed) determine the best evacuation routes (force) and how best to notify the public of those routes

3. For TEDSS to help determine the best evacuation strategies, it uses information on multiple variables that include

The behavior of radioactive gasses, such as dispersion rates Highway system characteristics, such as number of lanes Population distributions, such as densities and the location of people with

disabilities Current weather conditions, such as wind direction

day.1

4. If this information were static, administrators would have no need for a decision support system because the evacuation route would be developed once and the job would be done. However, the information fluctuates constantly depending on the time of day, time of year, and meteorological and economic conditions. Population densities also change, as does the highway system. The task, then, is to analyze all the information given the specific conditions of the moment, find the best solution, and find it quickly.

5. Some of the information that TEDSS needs resides within the power plant organization, such as the layout of the power plant, information on deadly gasses, and the escalation rate of the accident. Other information is supplied by state agencies and other external sources.

6. By processing this information in its simulation models, TEDSS provides output — some of it in graphic form — on the following factors:

Evacuation routes and paths from any origin to assigned shelters Projected volumes of traffic on the highway system Highways that may become severely blocked by radiation The time that will have elapsed before the last vehicle clears the area

7. With these outputs produced by TEDSS, planners can evaluate traffic management strategies, such as one-way operation of highways, shoulder use, and flashing signals to reduce traffic congestion and to improve evacuation time.

A Decision Support System to Save Lives1. You cannot see, hear, or smell nuclear radiation, but it’s deadly all the same. In 1986 about 3.5 million people in Belarus,

Russia, and Ukraine were exposed to it when there were two explosions in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear plant. Some of the effects are only now emerging, like the high incidence of thyroid cancer in children. Experts agree that many health problems would have been avoided if an evacuation plan had been in place.

2. To avoid such a human tragedy in Virginia, power plant administrators commissioned the development of TEDSS to assist in creating an evacuation plan in case of a nuclear power plant disaster there. TEDSS is a special type of IT system called a decision support system. If a nuclear disaster were to occur, planners can use TEDSS to quickly determine the best evacuation routes and how best to notify the public of those routes

3. For TEDSS to help determine the best evacuation strategies, it uses information that includes The behavior of radioactive gasses, such as dispersion rates Highway system characteristics, such as number of lanes Population distributions, such as densities and the location of people with disabilities Current weather conditions, such as wind direction

4. If this information were static, administrators would have no need for a decision support system because the evacuation route would be developed once and the job would be done. However, the information fluctuates constantly depending on the time of day, time of year, and meteorological and economic conditions. Population densities also change, as does the highway system. The task, then, is to analyze all the information given the specific conditions of the moment, find the best solution, and find it quickly.

5. Some of the information that TEDSS needs resides within the power plant organization, such as the layout of the power plant, information on deadly gasses, and the escalation rate of the accident. Other information is supplied by state agencies and other external sources.

6. By processing this information in its simulation models, TEDSS provides output—some of it in graphic form—on the following factors:

Evacuation routes and paths from any origin to assigned shelters Projected volumes of traffic on the highway system Highways that may become severely blocked by radiation The time that will have elapsed before the last vehicle clears the area

7. With these outputs produced by TEDSS, planners can evaluate traffic management strategies, such as one-way operation of highways, shoulder use, and flashing signals to reduce traffic congestion and to improve evacuation time.

A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save Livesillustrates types of decisions supported by DSS

Introductory CaseDSS-1.b

Evacuation planning for nuclear power plant disaster

multi-factor + dynamic

complex non-routine

unstructured

Force TEDSS Speed

color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO)

TEDSS.2&7

TEDSS.4TEDSS.3&5

Details: Modeling…more efficient exodus. WSJ.30Sep05

quickly at the momentbest

solution

HighCost &Benefit

TEDSS.6 simulation: regression

Figure 2: The presentation of the Surry Power Station area consists of the highway network and the protective action zones (PAZs).

NBC10.com/trafficProvides similar graphic output (based multi-variate model) that assists decision maker in selecting best route.

TEDDS: 2,7

A Decision Support System (DSS) to Save LivesIntroductory CaseDSS-1.b

Evacuation planning for nuclear power plant disaster (terrorism)

multi-factor + dynamic

complex non-routine

unstructured

Force TEDSS Speed

color graphics output (N-GAGE, Sparks, Celtics-HO)

TEDSS.2&7

TEDSS.4TEDSS.3&5

quickly at the momentbest

solution

HighCost &Benefit

N-Site(AHP)

Tools to Predict Likely Teroritst Moves. WSJ.30Sep05

DSSbenefits

s

What are the benefits of a DSS?

involves interaction between decision maker and IT system that supplements & enhances human decision making by increasing: understanding of the problem/decision by examining

intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers (spouse choice, accounting policy, terrorist activity, pipeline path)

management of complexity & lack of structure sophistication of processing capabilities speed of access to & processing of information

for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: increasing flexibility & productivity (Dock:Sparks, DHS:N-Site) decreasing costs (Jackpot : Celtics, Rx:CPOE)

DSSDSS-13

ExcelAccessN-GAGE(AHP)

force

New Science of Management DecisionHerbert Simon (1960)

…this journey (into the decision making process) is going to lead…(to) a major revolution in the art and science of management and organization (observed in CIO cases) S.7.4

…the computer and the new decision-making techniques associated with it are bringing momentous changes like machinery brought to manual jobs

S.xi.1 Proquest

In 1960, described a terrain map of decision making that provides a framework the discussion in new millennium S.7.5

DSS.2

S-1 Introduction

What types of decisions do you face?Types of Decisions DSS-3

Structured Unstructured

Recurring

Non-recurring

Processing specific info. in specified way

No precise way to get a right answer AI (DSS)

repeatedly or periodically

infrequently

CIO assessments (N-Gage)Celtics Analytics Slam Dunk

Plant LayoutLine Balancing

ProgrammedTPS & MIS

Non-programmedSpouse Choice (N-Gage)Hiring Technical Managers … or University FacultyAccounting PolicyCaspian Sea Pipeline Path

STRUCTUREFREQUENCY

DM D

IMENSI

ONS

Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions

My reason for making the distinction is that different techniques are used for handling the programmed and the nonprogrammed aspects of decision making S.5.3

Types of DecisionsS-2

Two Polar Types of Decisions

Programmed to the extent repetitive and routine so that a definite procedure

has been developed

S.5.4 the name is from the computer field indicating a detailed

sequence of responses exists to a complex task environment S.6.2

Nonprogrammed to the extent novel and unstructured so that no specific

procedures have been developed to respond to the situation S.6.1

general problem solving capacities (judgment, creativity, heuristics) are used to respond S.6.3

frequently ineffective and high cost so focus of DSS and AI S.6.4

Types of DecisionsS-3.a

Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions

Programmed decisions are frequently observed so they can be studied and better understood (sales, purchases, inventory, registration, grades)

traditionally, organizations use SOP (habit) and structure (departments & committees)

S.9-10

opportunity to use IT (TPS, MIS, JIT) so focus on nonprogrammed (Gresham’s Law)

Types of DecisionsS-3.b

Different Processes for Programmed vs Nonprogrammed Decisions

Nonprogrammed decisions occur infrequently so they are less studied and less understood (spouse choice, team project assessments, accounting policy decisions, Caspian Sea pipeline path) traditionally, organizations use general problems solving

capabilities (judgment, heuristics, task forces, selection /training)

opportunity to use IT (DSS &AI ) to study & improveHuman thinking, problem solving & learning have been

mysterious processes that have been labeled but not explained

S.13.1nonprogrammed decision making will soon undergo as

fundamental a revolution as the one currently transforming programmed decisions in business organizations

S.21.1

Types of DecisionsS-3.c

Recurring Nonrecurring

Structured Nonstructured

Which supplier to use, based only on price

Probably recurring In between, if consider factors other than price

Which car insurance to buy at renewal time

Recurring In between (Continuum / Not discrete)

Whether to expand business into Eastern Europe

Nonrecurring Mostly unstructured

What plants to include in the landscaping around a new building

Nonrecurring In between (Continuum / Not discrete)

How to use tax regulations to fill out an income tax form

Recurring Unstructured if consider ethical & legal issues

How many lanes to put into a new bowling alley

Nonrecurring In between

DSS-4 Continuum of decisions, Complement of ITS

A Continuum of Decisions,A Complement of ITS

They are not really distinct types, but a whole continuum. We can find decisions of all shades of gray along the

continuum, the terms programmed and nonprogrammed are concepts that define the range S.5.3

The obvious reason why repetitive decisions tend to be programmed, and vice versa, is that if a particular problem recurs often enough, a routine procedure will usually be developed for solving it.

S.6.0

Not all IT systems and strategies are appropriate for every company or set of circumstances, but they are complementary BroadVision @CIO.com (092101)

Types of DecisionsS-4

Figure 4.3Phases of the Decision Making Process

DSS-5.a

ComplexIll-structuredSubjective

GDSS [ DSS (AI )]

N-GAGE (AHP)

Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice

N-Site Pipeline

Spouse Choice

What is the Decision Making Process?

Intelligence - find what needs fixing recognizing a threat or opportunity

Design - find fixes developing possible solutions

Choice - pick a fix selecting the best solution

Implementation - apply the fix

carrying out the solution, monitoring results & adjusting

Decision ProcessDSS-5.b

Figure 4.3

Three Principal Phases of Decision Making

Decision Making Comprises Three Phases S.2.1

The first phase of the decision-making process - searching the environment for conditions requiring a decision - I shall call intelligence (borrowing the military meaning).

The second phase inventing, developing and analyzing possible courses of action - I shall call design activity.

The third phase - selecting a particular course of action - I shall call choice activity.

Decision ProcessS-5

Phases of Decision Making

Generally, intelligence activity precedes design, and design precedes choice.S.3.2

The cycle of phases is, however, far more complex than this sequence suggests. Figure 5.3

Each phase in making a particular decision is itself a complex decision-making process.

The design phase may require new intelligence activities

Problems at any given level generate subproblems that, in turn, have their intelligence, design and choice phases.

Decision ProcessS-6

DAY 2

N-GAGE

for

SPOUSE CHOICE

ENGAGEMENT

1.b WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in non-program. decisions

(Spouse Choice)6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions

9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate design / choice phasesof complex judgmental (qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)

10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities

from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components

assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)

DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications

design

choice

day.2

Psychological Foundation: Approach – Avoidance principle

Analytic: decompose into components

(more complete analysis)

Hierarchical Structure (smart people organize)

A B C D E F A B C D E F A B C D E FA B C D E FProcess of pairwise comparisons: (easier 2 @ time, on all criteria)

N-GAGE PROCEDURES

► Go to kennedyonline.us► Select N-Gage► Run► Run► File► New► Enter file name & description► Next► Enter # of levels under the goal ( goal is

level 0)► Next► Enter goal name & description► Done► Select Design tab► Select Criteria Select level 1► Name & describe criterion► OK► Name & describe other criteria as

previously until finished level 1

Select Criteria► Select next level (2)► Name & describe elements (alternatives)► OK► Name & describe other alternatives as

previously until finished level 2► Select goal► Select arrow button to draw relationships► Draw arrows from the goal to each criterion in

level 1► When finished drawing arrows to define

relationships at level 1, select a criterion ► Draw arrows from the criterion in level 1 to

each alternative in level 2 to be rated on that criterion

► Repeat the process for each criterion

N-GAGE PROCEDURES

► Select the Compare tab ► Double click the Goal (a pair-wise

comparison – PWC – table appears) Select the first row in the table► Compare (approach : avoidance) the

criteria using the number line► Select the next row in the table► Repeat the comparison process► OK when the comparisons are finished in

the last row of the table► Double click a criterion in level 1 (a pair-

wise comparison table appears)► Select the first row in the table ► Repeat the comparison process in the table

just as previously ► Repeat the process for each criterion► Select the Goal when finished the

comparison process for each criterion

► Select the Solution tab► The hierarch of criteria & alternatives appears

with the weights derived from the PWC process on the arrows and an IR (inconsistency ratio) in each box

► If the IR > 0.10 a “Revise IR!” statement appears in the box

► To revise the inconsistent comparisons, select the compare tab

► Then, double click on the box with the inconsistency message

► Redo the comparison process as before ► When all the inconsistencies have been

resolved, select the Goal and the select the Solution tab

► Print the hierarchy (if the hierarchy does not print on a single page, use print screen -PrtSc – to copy and past into PowerPoint or Word)

Figure 4.3Phases of the Decision Making Process

DSS-5.a

SubjectiveComplexIll-structured

GDSS [ DSS (AI )]

N-GAGE (AHP)

Examples Hire technical manager Accounting Choices Access Assessment Spouse Choice

N-Site Pipeline

Spouse Choice

DAY 3

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

1.b WHAT IS A DSS?6.1 flexible/interactive ITS support complex/ill-structured DM6.2 typically applied to design/choice in non-programmed decisions

(Spouse Choice)6.3 AHP is an example 8 momentous changes for (complex/ill-structured) DM ProQuest shows applied to many diverse decisions

9 AHP developed to assist DM evaluate design / choice phasesof complex judgmental (qualitative criteria) problems7 Analytic (decompose into components) Hierarchy (organize into hierarchical structure) Process (simpler pair-wise comparisons) 13 Simple, Intuitive, Powerful 9 understanding (components of decision)

10 management of complexity (hierarchical structure, simpler choices) 11 sophistication / speed of information processing (infers priorities

from series of simple choices)14a EC applied to spouse choice demonstrates DSS & components

assignment: use EC to weight presentation criteria 16 integrated into GDSS (Ranking Technical Managers)

DSS extended by groupware & telecommunications

design

choice

Recurring Non-recurringStructured Non-structured

DSS-2 What is a DDS?

support

Non-programmed (qualitative)Programmed{

flexible interactive

so trial-error

Expert Choice (AHP)

}

Artificial Intelligence

Excel Access

N-Site

networks

What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?

Excel – statistical & what-if analysis (flexible budgets) MS Access –data mining tools like queries and reports N-GAGE – employs AHP to evaluate complex hierarchical

problems involving qualitative criteria DSS-7

DSSDSS-6

DSS is a flexible and interactive IT system designed to support decision making when problem is complex / unstructured frequently includes AI models like N-GAGE (AHP) must be flexible / interactive in response to / because of

problems that are complex / unstructured usually involves qualitative criteria

typically in design / choice phases of decisions Examples: ACCESS

PROJECTS

What is a Decision Support System (DSS)?

Excel – statistical & what-if analysis (flexible budgets) MS Access –data mining tools like queries and reports N-GAGE – employs AHP to evaluate complex hierarchical

problems involving qualitative criteria DSS-7

DSSDSS-6

DSS is a flexible and interactive IT system designed to support decision making when problem is complex / unstructured frequently includes AI models like N-GAGE (AHP) must be flexible / interactive in response to / because of

problems that are complex / unstructured usually involves qualitative criteria

typically in design / choice phases of decisions Examples: ACCESS

PROJECTS

Select Access ProjectsChoice: order CIO.1 presentations (Rx Build)

Tentativedates

Access ProjectCIO Team

800 930 200

T

A: Data Definition (cradling : relevance)B: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)C: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)

TH

D: Application Generators (capturing : reliably)E: Data Manipulation (creating : analysis)F: Data Manipulation (creating : analysis)

A-12

BRING

FLASH

DRIVE

THURSDAY

is an AI that models how experts approach complex hierarchical decisions involving qualitative criteria Analytic - decompose complex problems into components

(criteria / alternatives) Hierarchy - organize into meaningful structure Process of pair-wise comparisons involving trade-offs

assigns weights to the criteria and preferences to the alternatives more natural to compare two things than numerous

elements

Analytic Hierarchy Process

(Saaty 2000, 1990, 1977)

DSS: AHPDSS-7

Analytic: decompose into components

Hierarchical Structure

B D H I J Rx B D H I J Rx B D H I J RxB D H I J RxProcess of pairwise comparisons ASSIGNMENT: N-GAGE (ASSESS CIO.1)

Simple, Intuitive…Powerful AHP has been applied to many diverse decisions:

Strategic Planning for a Caspian Sea Pipeline Project 2012

AHP-Delphi GDSS for Locating Whey Processing Facility 2008

N-Site: An Anti-terrorist Distributed Consensus Building and Negotiation Support System across the WWW 2006

► Evaluating Characteristics of Financial Information 2004, 1995

TQI Benchmarking Tools for Evaluating TQM programs 2003

Translating Financial Phrases into Numerical Probabilities 1997

Consensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates 1996

DSS: AHPDSS-8

(ProQuest)

Qualitative Characteristics of Financial Information

Comparability(including Consistency)

Timeliness

RELEVANCE

Decision Usefulness

RELIABILITY

FeedbackValue

PredictiveValue Neutrality Representational

FaithfulnessVerifiability

FASB: SFAC2

Analytical: decompose into components

Hierarchical Structure

Process of pairwise comparisons

Similar to:Choice spouse &

CIO/Access assessments

design

choice

understanding

manage complexity

AHP QUESTIONNAIRE

Concept A o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Concept BExtreme Very Strong Moderate Equal Moderate Strong Very Extreme

strong strong

Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Relevance

Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Cost

Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality

Reliability o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability

Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Cost

Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality

Relevance o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability

Cost o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Materiality

Cost o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability

Materiality o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o Comparability

DSS-10

Analytical Hierarchy Proces: Decision Support for complex judgmental problems

While the applications of AHP appear different, each “incorporated judgments on intangible criteria and other elements alongside tangible ones which have known measurements.” Saaty 1987 p.157

N-GAGE & Expert Choice are an expert systems (artificial intelligence) based on AHP designed specifically to make explicit the judgments of experts in evaluating complex unstructured problems involving qualitative criteria

DSS: ECDSS-12.

What are the benefits of a DSS?

involves interaction between decision maker and IT system that enhances & supplements human decision making by increasing: understanding of the problem/decision by examining

intuition/judgment/experience of decision makers management of complexity and lack of structure sophistication of processing capabilities speed of access to and processing of information

for an organization, the enhancement of human decision making contributes to: increasing flexibility and productivity decreasing costs

DSSDSS-13

What are the Components of a DSS?DSS-14.a

What makes accounting datadecision useful?

What accounting alternative should beused to report these

events?

PreparesAuditors

Users

AHP

Pairwise comparisons

FASB Hierarchy

Expert Choice

Figure 4.5

Graphics &

prompts

What are the Components of a DSS?DSS-14.b

Figure 5.6

FASB / Bloom Hierarchies

pairwise comparisons

Expert Choicegraphics & prompts

AHP

What are the components of a DSS?

DSSs vary in application and complexity, but all share specific components: user interface

permits user to enter information, commands and models should be simple, flexible, consistent

model management stores and manages the DSS models

data management stores and maintains information

DSSDSS-14.c

Relate to Expert Choice

What is the process of developing DSS?DSS

Intelligence examine the problem to determine if a DSS is needed

DSS if the problem is complex / unstructured TPS, IOS or MIS if the problem is structured / routine

DSS.2-3 Design

identify what is available to buy as an alternative to building DSS generators: Excel, Expert Choice (Research)

Choice compare build to buy considering cost, fit with the

problem/decision, ease of use Implementation

test, evaluate and revise the DSS (Research)

DSS-15

N-GAGE LAN / internetNetscape/ Outlook

Team Members:Nursing DirectorsNurse ManagersStaff Nurse

Facilitators:Researchers

}DSS supports team DM when problem is

complex / unstructured (qualitative criteria)

as in CIO.1 RANKING

IT Tools

DSS-16aConsensus Ranking Technical Manager: similar spouse choice & CIO.1 ranking

GDSS supports TEAM STRATEGY

What is Group Decision Support System (GDSS)?GDSSDSS-16.b

DSS that is designed to support decision making by a team especially when decision is complex /unstructured DSS-2

typically involves qualitative criteria H.135.6

GASB - setting accounting policies N-Site – multi-national response to terrorism Assign rankings to CIO.1 team presentations

Consensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates

Omega v24 n5 pp523-538

DSS.17

What are the components of a GDSS?

People Team Members

united by a common goal & task interdependence experience, perspective, judgment

Facilitators nontechnical role to conduct the meeting technical role related to IT tools

IT Tools Groupware permit team to provide input

simultaneously/anonymously and view by others DSS capabilities to classify, analyze, and rank ideas Telecommunications hardware/software to network

team members (LAN, WAN, Internet)

GDSSDSS-16.c

Omega

Consensus RankingConsensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates

Hiring technical managers is:Complex

broad range of skills is required candidates have different skill sets

Unstructured qualitative criteria have no inherent scale / metric for trade-

offs between criteria or comparisons between candidates DMs have implicit criteria that may not be appropriate (e.g.

religion, sex, race) and should be challengedTeam / Group Decision

perceived importance of required skills (hiring criteria) will vary within and between organizational levels

DSS-17

Consensus Ranking

What are the phases of team/group decision making?

I Develop explicit functional criteria that reflect organizational perspectives 19.a-b

Brainstorming (Table 1, Table 2)

Issue categorization & analysis (Table 3, Figure 1)

II Assign priority to criteria & preferences to candidates Voting (Expert Choice, Figure 2) 20.a-b

III Achieve a consensus while minimizing the dysfunctional effects of groups (groupthink, conflict, status) Ranking of the Candidates (Tables 6 & 8) 21.a-

b

DSS-18

(I) Developing the Hiring Criteria Hierarchy

Each Decision Maker (DM) develops a list of criteria.

Facilitators aggregate individual lists of criteria and develop a comprehensive list for each DM group. Table 1

Facilitators do a comprehensive literature search to prepare operational definitions of the criteria.

Table 2

Consensus Ranking: Phase IDSS-19.a

Omega: 525-8

(I) Developing the Hiring Criteria Hierarchy

Each DM identifies related criteria sets and rank orders the criteria within each set. Table 3

Facilitators collect the rankings and develop a synthesized hierarchy of criteria for each DM group. Figure 1

Facilitators and each DM group meet to finalize each group’s criteria hierarchy.

Consensus Ranking: Phase IDSS-19.b

Omega : 525-8

(II) Assigning Importance to Criteria &Preferences to Candidates

Consensus Ranking: Phase II

Facilitators familiarize DMs with principles of AHP and suitable AHP software such as Expert Choice (EC).

DMs use EC for pairwise comparisons between criteria in the hierarchy in Figure 1.

EC alerts DMs to logical inconsistencies and encourages DMs to repeat the pairwise comparisons process in the previous step.

HR does initial screening and identifies several eligible candidates.

DSS-20.a

Omega: 528-30

(II) Assigning Importance to Criteria &Preferences to Candidates

Consensus Ranking: Phase II

DM groups interview candidates using their criteria hierarchy.

DMs use EC for pairwise comparisons to evaluate candidates on each criterion at lowest level of hierarchy.

EC alerts DMs to logical inconsistencies and encourages DMs to repeat the pairwise comparisons process in the previous step. Table 4

DSS-20.b

Omega: 528-30

(III) Identifying the Consensus Ranking of the Candidates

Consensus Ranking: Phase III

Facilitators provide anonymous feedback to all the DMs about each group’s average weights and preferences. Figure 2 If the DMs are satisfied that there is adequate

consistency within the group, the process proceeds to Step 2 below

Otherwise, DMs to go back to Step 6 of Phase 2. Table 5

DSS-21.a

Omega: 530-34

(III) Identifying the Consensus Ranking of the Candidates

Consensus Ranking: Phase III

Facilitators input the final data from Step 1 to MAH and obtain a consensus ranking of the candidates. Tables 6

Facilitators meet with DMs. Unless unforeseen dissatisfactions, the process of employment offers begins in the order prescribed by the GDSS (AHP & MAH). Tables 8

DSS-21.b

Omega: 530-34

What are the benefits of a GDSS?

Achieves the benefits of a team approach to a decision by: compressing time /space so individuals can interact brainstorming to share ideas, facilitate consensus and

achieve acceptance perspectives from different organizational levels

revealing required expertise in candidates (nursing directors, nurse managers, staff nurses)

explicit functional criteria are encouraged rather than implicit / inappropriate criteria such as sex, race, religion.

GDSSDSS-22.a

OmegaH.138.2

What are the benefits of a GDSS?

minimizes the problems of group processes including: groupthink in which different ideas are suppressed conflict by keeping focus on problem not personalities status differences that restrict participation (nursing

directors, nurse managers, staff nurses) sequential interaction in face-to-face meeting,

GDSSDSS-22.b

OmegaH.138.2