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crop modeling
IFPRI… IS SPATIAL TOO!
JAWOO KOO, ZHE GUO, AND STANLEY WOODINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
CGIAR-CSI 2009, ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya (1 APRIL 2009)
final remarksintroductionfertilizer
profitability
It turns out… believe it or not…
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BASELINE characterization,potential productivity, profitability
CHANGESnutrient & water managements, germplasm adoption, climate change, etc.
ECONOMICEVALUTIONdialogue with stakeholders/user groups on scenarios, evaluation, and technology-scale evaluation
SPATIAL CHARATERIZATION & EVALUATION FRAMEWORK
SChEF
Ingredients
SPAM
Production systems characterization
SIMPLR
Price modeling
DREAM
Web-based data query and visualization tools
SChEF
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GRID-BASED REGIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT OF CROP RESPONSES TO CHANGES
DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS
ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSES TO DETERMINANTS AND THEIR INTERACTIONS Variety
Nutrient management
Water management
Biotic constraints
Abiotic constraints
Climate change
DYNAMIC CROP SYSTEMS MODELS DSSAT
APSIM
WOFOST
ORYZA
IFPRI HPC (80 CPU’s)
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Climatology Soils Cropping Patterns Crop Variety Planting Window Planting Density Water Management Nutrient Management (N and P*) Residue Management* Biotic Stresses* Soil Constraints and Interventions (P and pH)*
CROP SYSTEMS MODEL APPLICATIONS
SIMPLR MODELING TEMPLATE
*Coming Soooooooon!
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HISTORIC CLIMATOLOGY
WorldClim
Global / Monthly mean of 1950-2000 Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1km
DAILY WEATHER
NASA-POWER
Global / Daily 1997-recentSrad,Tmax,Tmin,Rain / 1 degree*
*WorldWeather downscales to 15’
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GLOBAL SOIL PROFILES
ISRIC WISE 1.1 DATABASE
Continent Count
Africa 1300
Asia 975
Australia 31
Europe 370
North America 291
Oceania 49
South America 388
Total 3404
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GENERIC SOIL PROFILES (HWSD+WISE1.1)
HC27: Fertility x Texture x Depth
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Latest Dataset Release (Ver.SIM09064)
SPATIAL EVALUATION OF MAIZE PERFORMANCE
Crop: MAIZE Model: DSSAT-CSM v4 Region: SSA Resolution: 5 ARC-MIN Climate: NASA-POWER
(1998-2007) Soils: HC27 Managements:
Monthly planting window Rainfed/Irrigation Three cultivars
(long, medium, and short maturity) Supplemental N fertilizer
applications(0, 20, …, 100 kg*N+/ha)
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REFERENCE LAYERS
GLOBAL YIELD POTENTIAL
MAIZE | Water limited, med. maturity, coarse soil texture
MAIZE | Potential with no limitation
Cassava, Chickpea, Cowpea, Fababean, Maize, Millet, Mungbean, Potato, Sorghum, Soybean, Sweet Potato, Wheat, Rice
WOFOST & ORYZA Global, 1-degree NASA-POWER daily weather
(1997-2007) Options:
Biweekly planting window Water-limit vs. potential Sandy or clayey soil texture Three maturity classes
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HOTSPOT ANALYSIS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Scenario A2A (2050-2000)MAIZE
kg/ha
< -3,000
-2,999 - -2,000
-1,999 - -1,000
-999 - -500
-499 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,000
> 2,001
kg/ha
< -3,000
-2,999 - -2,000
-1,999 - -1,000
-999 - -500
-499 - 500
501 - 1,000
1,001 - 2,000
> 2,001
Scenario A2A (2050-2000)GROUNDNUTMaize: Climate change hotspots (red)
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REDUCED FORM OF CROP SYSTEMS MODEL
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Crop model-generated ASPATIAL
training datasets
ANN SPATIALClimate, Soil
Yield impacts+
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NEW THEME 2009
ABIOTIC CONSTRAINTS TO CROP PRODUCTIVITY AND PRODUCTION
Beyond Nitrogen:
1. GIS: What is the location and severity of key soil
productivity constraints in SSA? What crop areas are
affected?
2. SIMPLR: How much yield and production is “currently”
being lost because of these constraints? What is the
annual costs of those losses?
3. SIMPLR: To what extent can the impact of these
constraints be mitigated by improved
inputs/management interventions?
4. DREAM: What is the potential size and distribution
of economic benefits of mitigation/intervention hbo.com
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Policy Experiments for a more enabling environment(a) negotiated urea import discounts
(b) reduced unit transport costs (c) reduce border crossing costs
Location & Production System Specific
Fertilizer Responses
(Climate/Weather
Soils, Management)
FarmgateOutputPrices
FarmgateFertilizer
Prices
Transport Costs
(on & off road)
Fertilizer Import Costs
Markets
Key Factors Influencing Fertilizer Adoption & Profitability
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Maize price
U.S. $/Mt Y2008 Y2006 Y2004
Migori : KE 395.9841 224.3687 219
Kitale : KE 270.7492 153.4093 153.3523
Eldoret : KE 310.3333 191.3333 206.6667
Nakuru : KE 267.4 169.6667 219
Nairobi : KE 293.6 225 219.25
Kisumu : KE 395.3333 224 223.9167
Mombasa : KE 291.4 217.3333 210.75
Kitui : KE 347.6927 220.6128 245
Busia : KE 265.5 168.875 138
Kigali : RW 283.8 270.25 184.2
Ruhengeri : RW 259.5 240.1667 191
Dar es salaam : TZ 306.6 187.8333 164.6667
Arusha : TZ 276.6981 156.78 187.6364
Mbeya : TZ 231.8831 146.615 114.25
Mwanza : TZ 260.012 205.1448 186.9
Songea : TZ 224.5972 153.7778 108.5
Sumbawanga : TZ 211.7557 133.8889 118
Tanga : TZ 246.4771 196.1111 176.3333
Bukoba : TZ 277.8545 219.2222 206
Iganga : UG 252.2355 155.375 133
Kabale : UG 237.6648 175.9224 168.3636
Kampala : UG 245.2 181.5 172.1667
Kasese : UG 200.5419 181 153.3333
masindi : UG 205.2909 151.9588 150.1818
Mbale : UG 303 159.75 165.3333
Lira : UG 254 171.25 150.6667
U.S.$/kg Stevedore Handling Removal Charge storage Terminal handling
Kenya 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008
Uganda 0.008 0.006 0.002 0.0005 0.008
Tanzania 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
Rwanda 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
Burundi 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.0005 0.008
Port/borderprocessing fee
Source: www.tradeafrica.bizA Guide For Maize Traders on Regulatory Requirements For Import and Export Maize in East African Community
Source: Regional Agricultural trade intelligence network
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Policy Scenarios
Baseline
Negotiated decrease in importprice of Urea (50%)
Scenario:1 Reduced Procurement Cost
Reduce road transport costs by 20% per ton per km
Scenario 2: Road Transport Cost
Border-crossing cost reduces 50%
Scenario 3: Reduce Border Cost
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Maize Markets & Market Prices
40 towns & cities reporting maize prices
40 maize “marketsheds”
2005 av. maize prices in each marketshed
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Maize transport costs from farmgate to target market
Net maize “farmgate” price
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VCRs: Baseline and policy scenarios 1 & 2(estimated at 35kg N/ha)
1: 50% lower urea procurement price
2: 20% lower road transport cost
< 0.5
0.5-1.0
1.1-2.0
2.1-4.0
>4.0
Baseline
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VCR By Country & Market Access(early 2008)
Country
VCR by Market Access Class
High Med. Low Average
Burundi 2.5 2 2 2.25
Kenya 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25
Rwanda 2 1.5 1.5 1.75
Tanzania 3.25 2.75 1.25 2.5
Uganda 3 2 1.75 2
All 2.75 2.25 1.5 2.25
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WHERE TO INVEST?
AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info
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WHERE TO INVEST?
AG MARKET FINDER | marketfinder.info
Demonstration*http://marketfinder.info
*Please, FREE the network for a moment!
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THINGS KEEP US BUSY
UPDATES
SPAM* UPDATE
2000 ver.3
2005
AEZ UPDATE FOR SSA
HARVESTCHOICE DOMAIN
VISUALIZATIONS: GKS-2-HMNS
*NO name change!
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DATA EXPLORATION AND VISUALIZATION
DROPPR
Mashup Ingredients Map data (e.g., Shapefile) Map tiles using GMapCreator Google Maps API
Base map Interface Marker Reverse Geocoding Overlaying tiles
Ajaxing using jQuery Apache Web Server Data tables in MySQL Programming in PHP (CodeIgniter) Google Chart API Lots of Coffee