INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CUTT-OFF TIMINGS OF FUNDS PAKISTAN ECONOMIC UPDATES Disclaimer: This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. DAWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED 1500A Saima Trade Towers, I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi-74700, Pakistan UAN: 111-DAWOOD (111-329-663) PABX: (92 21) 32271874 x 227 Fax: (92 21) 32271912 Email: [email protected]URL: www.edawood.com Economic Outlook The Pakistani markets are still assessing the scale of damages inflicted by the August floods, as well as their near term impact on the economy. The floods are expected to have an immediate fiscal impact on the government’s budgetary priorities. News reports suggest that a revised budget with a special flood tax, diminished development spending targets and a tight fiscal rein will be offered to provide some fiscal stability, until a clearer picture of foreign flows emerges. However the excessive government borrowing will tend to hike in inflationary pressure in near future. Market Performance Volatile KSE-100 index gained 291 points to 10013 points (+3%) during the third quarter despite lower volumes (average daily volume of 62mn). Factors keeping investors sidelined included; 1) 100bps increase in Discount Rate, 2) Realization of the magnitude of floods and resulting damages, 3) Uncertain macroeconomic environment and 4) Delay in leverage product. However, towards the end of the quarter market activity picked up thanks to approval of MTS concept paper, helping KSE‐100 index to recover from July’s clobbering. Nevertheless, overall perception of weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and political noise could continue going forward. In this scenario, any progress pertaining to introduction of MTS or an exciting earnings season could help rejuvenate investor interest. Debt Market Review Medium-term impact of floods is still not very clear on the economy and will be further clear in the up-coming months; however, the trend is still showing the inclination towards further increase in the interest rates in near future. This coupled with persistent Government borrowings indicates that T-Bills rates may remain high or creep up further. As a result of prevailing economic conditions the overall debt market remained on the depressed side with substantial downward revaluation of debt security prices during the first quarter of FY 10~11. However the successful restructuring of previously defaulting debt securities in cement sector, showed a positive development towards market recovery. Money Market Review The money market during the quarter remained mostly liquid with the overnight rates ranging from 10.50% to 11.50%. The T-bill for 3, 6 and 12 months were trading between the ranges of 12.45%-12.55%, 12.60%-12.70% and 12.75%-12.85% respectively. However, hike in the Discount Rate resulted in spike on T-bill yields as witnessed by 12 months T-bill traded above 12.85% in the market. During the period, SBP continues to monitor the market liquidity and kept its focus on interest rate volatility as reflected by Open Market Operations. Whereas the Money Market hit the floor rate many times due to extra liquidity available in the system. DAWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED Fund Manager's Report - Septembert 2010 Muhammad Saleem Munshi Chief Investment Officer Muhammad Ahmed Fund Manager Mustansir Shabbar Member Muhammad Aamir Siddiqui Secretary
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INVESTMENT COMMITTEE CUTT-OFF TIMINGS OF FUNDS
PAKISTAN ECONOMIC UPDATES
Disclaimer:
This publication is for informational purposes only and nothing herein should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any
fund. All investments in mutual funds are subject to market risks. The NAV based prices of units and any dividends/returns thereon are dependant on
forces and factors affecting the capital markets. These may go up or down based on market conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of
Economic OutlookThe Pakistani markets are still assessing the scale of damages inflicted by the August floods, as well as their near term impact on the
economy. The floods are expected to have an immediate fiscal impact on the government’s budgetary priorities.
News reports suggest that a revised budget with a special flood tax, diminished development spending targets and a tight fiscal rein will
be offered to provide some fiscal stability, until a clearer picture of foreign flows emerges. However the excessive government borrowing
will tend to hike in inflationary pressure in near future.
Market PerformanceVolatile KSE-100 index gained 291 points to 10013 points (+3%) during the third quarter despite lower volumes (average daily volume of
62mn). Factors keeping investors sidelined included; 1) 100bps increase in Discount Rate, 2) Realization of the magnitude of floods and
resulting damages, 3) Uncertain macroeconomic environment and 4) Delay in leverage product. However, towards the end of the quarter
market activity picked up thanks to approval of MTS concept paper, helping KSE‐100 index to recover from July’s clobbering.
Nevertheless, overall perception of weakening macroeconomic fundamentals and political noise could continue going forward. In this
scenario, any progress pertaining to introduction of MTS or an exciting earnings season could help rejuvenate investor interest.
Debt Market ReviewMedium-term impact of floods is still not very clear on the economy and will be further clear in the up-coming months; however, the trend
is still showing the inclination towards further increase in the interest rates in near future. This coupled with persistent Government
borrowings indicates that T-Bills rates may remain high or creep up further.
As a result of prevailing economic conditions the overall debt market remained on the depressed side with substantial downward
revaluation of debt security prices during the first quarter of FY 10~11. However the successful restructuring of previously defaulting debt
securities in cement sector, showed a positive development towards market recovery.
Money Market ReviewThe money market during the quarter remained mostly liquid with the overnight rates ranging from 10.50% to 11.50%. The T-bill for 3, 6
and 12 months were trading between the ranges of 12.45%-12.55%, 12.60%-12.70% and 12.75%-12.85% respectively. However, hike in
the Discount Rate resulted in spike on T-bill yields as witnessed by 12 months T-bill traded above 12.85% in the market.
During the period, SBP continues to monitor the market liquidity and kept its focus on interest rate volatility as reflected by Open Market
Operations. Whereas the Money Market hit the floor rate many times due to extra liquidity available in the system.
DAWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Fund Manager's Report - Septembert 2010
Muhammad Saleem Munshi Chief Investment Officer
Muhammad Ahmed Fund Manager
Mustansir Shabbar Member
Muhammad Aamir Siddiqui Secretary
* Limit Breach
FUND STATISTICS PERFORMANCE STATISTICS
DMMF TOP TEN DEBT SECURITIES FUND MANAGER'S COMMENTS
During the month of Septemeber, DMMF again
witnessed a healthy positive return of 17.02% pa.
This was due to reversals and capital gains against
defaulting debt instruments that have now been
paying their due amounts making DMMF an
extremely attractive investments for investors
looking to take the advantage of the reversals and
capital gains. DMMF will continue to progress in the
same manner in up coming months as well.
DAWOOD MONEY MARKET FUND
Fund Manager's Report - September 2010
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE
To preserve the investor’s capital w hile providing a return
greater than that offered by other investments of similar risk
profile through investments in a portfolio of money market
instruments.
Name of Fund Dawood Money Market Fund
Structure Open End
Industry Category Fixed Income
Benchmark Avg. 6 Month KIBOR (Subject to SECP Approval)