David Smith Smart Cities - Birmingham

Global Futures& Foresight

David SmithChief executive

Global Futures and Foresight

© Global Futures and Foresight 2012

Integrated city – Integrated lives


Smart city development

• Integrated view of city governance.• Rationalise complex IT environments. • City-wide systems integration.• Engage cloud and outsourced services. • Outsource and cloud service management. • Network of solutions.


Agenda

• Pace of change

• The journey

• Integrated approach


UK urban population• 70m population by 2028, up 9m in 19 years. (ONS)

• Urban population rising:

– 50.3m in 1990

– 53.5m in 2005 – 59.6 million by 2030 (1).

• Single occupancy households to increase by 20% to 26 million by 2026. (from 2006).

Source (1): UN http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005WUP_DataTables3.pdf

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1567066/We-must-act-now-to-cut-immigrant-numbers.html

http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/11937%20FFF%20Retail%20Futures%20WEB%20new%20version.pdf : Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/oct/21/uk-population-growth-70-million

Global Futures& ForesightTECHNOLOGY


The Last 5-6 Years

What would you have done differently

if you’d seen any of this Coming?

• Youtube started• Telephone becomes a PC• Touch screens• Tablets• Internet boom• Social networks• The Cloud • Google Maps• Virtual worlds• Freemium business model• PayPal turns mainstream• Ebay turns us all to e-traders• Home video conferencing• Blogs, Wikis, Tweets, Peerindex & Klout• Robotic limbs

Just as much change coming in the next

five years


First we do things differentlyThen we do different things


The Era of the Supercomputer• By 2018 supercomputers

500 times faster than the most powerful today.

Source: PC World, June 2011 http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/230708/sgi_intel_plan_to_speed_up_supercomputers_500_times_by_2018.html

http://www.cse.tum.de/overview/cse.html


New era of mass communication

• Today's Internet has 1.9 bn users.

• World population is 7 bn people.

• By 2020 Internet will have 5 bn users. National Science Foundation in the U.S for one predicts

• Connecting 3 billion people• Mostly in emerging markets

– 26% of global economic activity

– Half of businesses can’t get online.

– Africa – 1 internet connection/1,000 pc’s

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=96642

http://networks.silicon.com/webwatch/0,39024667,39193696,00.htm

http://www.siliconrepublic.com/news/article/11665/comms/telecoms-industry-sees-opportunity-in-tough-times

the Other 3 Billion


Changing engagement

• 2020 - 35 zettabytes 44 times more than 2009.

• 75% of data already user generated:– Forwarding a link, rating a site, commenting on a blog,

twittering, sharing bookmarks, sharing your location, logging into websites, liking something on Facebook.

• Everywhere we go, everything we do, every move we make:– creates click-trails, – leaves digital breadcrumbs, – produces data exhaust, and creates meta-content.

Wired.com post and a related IDC study


The Mobile Network - 2015

• Data traffic to increase 26-fold.

• 7bn mobile-connected devices.

• Speeds increase 10-fold. – Mobile-connected tablets will generate as

much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010.

– The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010.

Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2010–2015 – Feb 2011 http://www.cisco.com/en/US/solutions/collateral/ns341/ns525/ns537/ns705/ns827/white_paper_c11-520862.pdf


Engaging with technology

• Speech recognition and artificial intelligence (AI) enable natural user interface:– Gesture– Speech– Look

• Virtual assistants to serve as secretaries, tutors, salespeople.

• Almost all routine work (TechCast)

The keyboard and mouse are dead


$35 Aakash Tablet Disruption


80% of executives worldwide believe that enterprise-wide collaboration is the key to success.


Social networks• Change the way we live

• Already changing social and political processes.

• Change the way we work• New Management processes

• Raise problems and allow those with a contribution to collaborate.

• Faster and more creative solutions.


Artificial Intelligence

• Artificial Intelligence’s - we will interact with them just like humans.

• e-technology will have advanced to the point where there are fewer human interactions with a more strategic focus and broader capabilities

• Face recognition that identifies emotional changes.

Source: http://www.supplymanagement.co.uk/EDIT/Featured_articles_item.asp?id=16394

24 hours a day, 7 days a week online and available


Engaging through technology

• Telepresence market to be worth $4.7 billion in 2014.

• As organisations cut:– Travel costs

– Carbon footprint

– Increase productivity (Winter Green Research, Techcast).

Source: TMC News http://www.tmcnet.com/channels/telepresence/articles/62985-telepresence-market-reach-47-billion-2014-report.htmSource: Venture Beat http://venturebeat.com/2010/03/04/virtual-events-keep-growing-and-even-comdex-makes-a-comeback-online/

Video Conferencing / Telepresence


Surrounded by technology

• 15bn connected devices by 2015.

• Integrates physical & virtual world.

• Objects sense their environment and communicate its status.

• Tools to understanding complexity.

• Ubiquity creates new models.

Source(1): Forbes 2010 http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/20/internet-connectivity-personalization-technology-cio-network-sensors.html?boxes=HomepagechannelsSource(2): eLearnSpace, 2010 http://www.elearnspace.org/blog/2010/03/19/the-internet-of-things-2/

22 billion devices by 2020 ‘Internet of ‘things’


Engaged in technology By 2019

• 3D virtual reality displays, • Embedded in glasses and contact

lenses. • Primary interfaces for communication

with other persons, computers, the Web, and virtual reality. (Kurzweil)

• Linking our senses directly with other people’s senses or with machines.


Convergence of Online & Offline


SMART CITY LIVING


City living – use, don’t ownThe default mindset of the digital generation


A life in context

• Where am I?

• What am I doing?

• Who’s around me?

• What would help me?– Where

– What

– Who

– How


Smart (integrated) living

• Diary• Household systems• Weather• Transportation services• Smart grids• Office (if you go to one at all)• Environmental services• Retail• Entertainment

Identity

Payments


Integration

• Vision

• Strategy

• Implementation

• Systems

• Infrastructure

• Data

Global Futures& ForesightCITY WIDE INTEGRATION


OrganisationIndividualCommercial

Strategy

Operational

Purpose VisionResources Foresight

CultureBehaviourCycles

ValuesCommsCapability

Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012

Next


Individual

Strategy

Vision

Operational

ResourcesPurpose Foresight

CultureBehaviourCycles

ValuesCommsCapability

Copyright © Next Visioning ip Ltd. 2012

NextCommercial Organisation


“Organize” for … performance & customer satisfaction.

“Disorganize” for … renewal & innovation.


Successful leaders of change



If you want to get ahead – you need to look ahead

+44 7932 408901

[email protected]

Imagine itThank you

www.linkedin.com/in/dasmithwww.thegff.com

davidsmithgff New report Full copy available from

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Indicator at: elm.nextvisioningip.com

David Smith Smart Cities - Birmingham

Technology