David Masson Shane Rawlings Mark Shtayerman. Sugar is the an agricultural commodity derived from sugar cane and sugar beet that is used in –Food industry.

MMTA Cycles Analysis of SugarDavid MassonShane RawlingsMark Shtayerman

Summary

• Sugar is the an agricultural commodity derived from sugar cane and sugar beet that is used in– Food industry as a sweetener and preservative– Industrial uses include in• Bio-fuels• Green Bio-plastics• Cosmetics• Explosives

• Traded on New York Inter Continental Exchange (ICE) but can also be traded through ETFS: SGG with $28M cap, CANE, SGAR

• Trough of some importance is happening now as of 5/16/13 as sugar sold-off to 16.82 in the intraday

Cycles Overview

• Data used for this analysis was obtained from Nick Laird – 1966 to present

• Long Term Cycles– 14-19 year cycle – only two observed so we will need to see more cycles– 7 year cycle with an orb of 1 year – all observed were combination cycles

• Intermediate Cycles– 38 month cycle with an orb of 7 months– 27 month cycle with an orb of 8 months– 39 week cycle with an orb of 10 weeks

• Short Term Cycles– Primary is 18 weeks with an orb of 10 weeks– Half is 8 weeks with an orb of 3 weeks– Major is 7 weeks with an orb of 2 weeks

Long Term Cycles: 14 or 18 Year Cycle

• Two longest cycles observed were 18.5 and 14 years long. The cycle troughs happened in– 12/66 at 1.28 ¢/lb.– 6/85 at 2.78 ¢/lb.– 4/99 at 4.21 ¢/lb.

• We don’t have enough data to conclude which cycle is normal length and which one has distorted

• We are expecting a trough any time for 7 year cycle in 2014 with an orb of a year. The trough for this cycle can be a also a trough for a longer cycle too, which will make it a 14 year longer term cycle. If not, then sugar probably has an 18-22 year cycle.

Long Term Cycles: 7 Year Cycle

• We have observed 6 full cycles and the seventh is about to be completed, all ranging from 5.6 to 8.2 years. Removing shortest and longest results in a cycle 6.9 year long with an orb of 1 year.

• Considering all data price gain is 112-1164% with the price loss of 49-94%

See Appendix A for graphical data plots

* May 2013 is a notional date for end of cycle 7

Cycle Start Peak End Trough Crest Through Years Months % Gain % Loss

1 Dec-66 Mar-72 Jul-72 1.28 10.24 5.18 5.6 67 700% 49%2 Jul-72 Nov-74 Jul-78 5.18 65.48 6.2 6.0 72 1164% 91%3 Jul-78 Nov-80 Jun-85 6.2 45.75 2.78 6.9 83 638% 94%4 Jun-85 May-90 May-91 2.78 16.19 7.5 5.9 71 482% 54%5 May-91 Jan-95 Apr-99 7.5 15.87 4.21 7.9 95 112% 73%6 Apr-99 Feb-06 Jun-07 4.21 19.73 8.37 8.2 98 369% 58%7 Jun-07 Feb-11 May-13 8.37 36.08 5.9 70 331%8

Date Price

Intermediate Cycle: 38 Month Cycle

• 7 year cycle subdivides into two 38 month cycles

• We have observed 13 full cycles and the 14th is about to be completed, all ranging from 32 to 58 months.– Considering all data the Mean cycle is 45 months with orb of 13

months– Removing two longest cycles with lengths of 50 and 58 months– The observed cycle is 38 months with an orb of 7 months with 79%

probability


• Reducing probability to 79% the– Expected price gain is 82-638% – Expected price loss is 34-75%

• Table is on the next slideSee Appendix B for graphical data plots


Intermediate Cycle: 38 Month Cycle, cont.

See Appendix B for graphical data plots



1 Dec-66 Apr-69 Aug-69 1.28 4.16 2.75 2.7 32 225% 34%2 Aug-69 Mar-72 Jul-72 2.75 10.24 5.18 2.9 35 272% 49%3 Jul-72 Nov-74 Jun-75 5.18 65.48 11 2.9 35 1164% 83%4 Jun-75 Aug-75 Jul-78 11 20.55 6.2 3.1 37 87% 70%5 Jul-78 Nov-80 Sep-81 6.2 45.75 11.33 3.2 38 638% 75%6 Sep-81 Jan-82 Jun-85 11.33 14.17 2.78 3.7 45 25% 80%7 Jun-85 Jul-88 Sep-88 2.78 13 8.92 3.3 39 368% 31%8 Sep-88 May-90 May-91 8.92 16.19 7.5 2.7 32 82% 54%9 May-91 Jan-95 Jul-95 7.5 15.87 9.58 4.2 50 112% 40%10 Jul-95 Dec-97 Apr-99 9.58 12.52 4.21 3.8 45 31% 66%11 Apr-99 Oct-00 Feb-04 4.21 11.4 5.27 4.8 58 171% 54%12 Feb-04 Feb-06 Jun-07 5.27 19.73 8.37 3.3 40 274% 58%13 Jun-07 Feb-10 Apr-10 8.37 30.4 14.81 2.8 34 263% 51%14 Apr-10 Feb-11 May-13 14.81 36.08 3.0 36 144%15 Today's date

Date Price

Intermediate Cycle: 27 Month Cycle

• 7 year cycle subdivides into three 27 month cycles

• We have observed 20 full cycles and the 21th is about to be completed, all ranging from 13 to 39 months.– Considering all data the Mean cycle is 26 months with orb of 13

months– Removing four outlier cycles with lengths of 13, 16, 38 and 39 months– The observed cycle is 27 months with an orb of 8 months with 80%

probability


• Reducing probability to 80% the– Expected price gain is 49-338% – Expected price loss is 29-79%

• Table is on the next slide

Intermediate Cycle: 27 Month Cycle, cont.

See Appendix B for graphical data plots


1 Dec-66 Jun-67 Sep-68 1.28 3.65 1.61 1.8 21 185% 56%2 Sep-68 Jan-71 Jun-71 1.61 5.27 4.07 2.7 33 227% 23%3 Jun-71 Mar-72 Jul-72 4.07 10.24 5.18 1.1 13 152% 49%4 Jul-72 Feb-74 Mar-74 5.18 23.63 14.94 1.7 20 356% 37%5 Mar-74 Nov-74 Dec-76 14.94 65.48 7.9 2.8 33 338% 88%6 Dec-76 Apr-77 Jul-78 7.9 11.17 6.2 1.6 19 41% 44%7 Jul-78 Feb-80 Mar-80 6.2 28.29 19.19 1.7 20 356% 32%8 Mar-80 Nov-80 Feb-83 19.19 45.75 6.35 2.9 35 138% 86%9 Feb-83 May-83 Jun-85 6.35 13.5 2.78 2.3 28 113% 79%10 Jun-85 Apr-86 Aug-87 2.78 9.53 5.93 2.2 26 243% 38%11 Aug-87 Jul-88 May-89 5.93 15.36 10.85 1.8 21 159% 29%12 May-89 May-90 May-91 10.85 16.19 7.5 2.0 24 49% 54%13 May-91 May-93 Aug-93 7.5 12.96 9.04 2.3 27 73% 30%14 Aug-93 Jan-95 Nov-96 9.04 15.87 10.21 3.2 39 76% 36%15 Nov-96 Dec-97 Apr-99 10.21 12.52 4.21 2.4 29 23% 66%16 Apr-99 Oct-00 Jun-02 4.21 11.4 4.82 3.2 38 171% 58%17 Jun-02 Oct-04 Feb-05 4.82 9.37 7.5 2.7 32 94% 20%18 Feb-05 Feb-06 Jun-07 7.5 19.73 8.37 2.3 28 163% 58%19 Jun-07 Mar-08 Oct-08 8.37 15.07 10.44 1.3 16 80% 31%20 Oct-08 Feb-11 May-11 10.44 36.08 20.4 2.6 31 246% 43%21 May-11 Aug-11 May-13 20.4 31.85 2.0 23 56%22

Date Price

Intermediate Cycle: 39 Week Cycle

• 38 month cycle subdivides into four 39 week cycles

• 27 month cycle subdivides into three 39 week cycles

• We have observed 60 full cycles and the 61th is about to be completed, all ranging from 17 to 65 weeks. Considering all data the Mean cycle is 41 weeks with orb of 24 weeks

• Removing 8 outlier cycles with lengths of less than 23 weeks and greater than 55 weeks results in a cycle of 40 weeks with an orb of 14 weeks with 87% probability

• Removing 18 outlier cycles with lengths of less than 27 weeks and greater than 51 weeks results in a cycle of 39 weeks with an orb of 10 weeks with 70% probability


• Reducing price probability to 80% the– Expected price gain is 23-150% – Expected price loss is 16-76%

See Appendix C for tabular data

Short Term Cycles: 18 Week Primary

• 39 week cycle subdivides into two or three 18 week primary cycles

• We have observed 141 cycles with last one possibly ending on 4/29/13, all ranging from 9 to 28 weeks. Considering all data the Mean cycle is 19 weeks with orb of 10 weeks

• Removing 20% outlier cycles with lengths of less than 11 weeks and greater than 25 weeks results in a cycle of 18 weeks and an orb of 6 weeks with an 80% probability


• Reducing price probability to 80% the– Expected price gain is 13-89% – Expected price loss is 10-42%

See Appendix D for tabular data

Short Term Cycles: Half-Primary and Major

• 25 of the 141 primary cycles were evaluated. Based on that data primary cycle subdivides into – Two-phase half-primary cycles 64% of the time (16 of 25 primary cycles

evaluated)– Three phase major cycles 32% of the time (8 of 25 primary cycles evaluated)– No discernible division 4% of the time (1 of 25 primary cycles evaluated)

• Evaluating half-primary cycle – Considering all of the data the cycle is 7 weeks with an orb of 4 weeks– Reducing 3 outliers results in a cycle of 8 weeks and orb of 3 (with 91%

probability)– Expected price gain is 11-58% and expected loss is 8-23% (with 80% probability)

• Evaluating major cycle – Considering all of the data the cycle is 8 weeks with an orb of 4 weeks– Reducing 3 outliers results in a cycle of 7 weeks and orb of 2 (with 88%

probability)– Expected price gain is 8-60% and expected loss is 8-28% (with 80% probability)

• There is a possibility that the primary cycle sub-divides into two or three 7 week sub-cycles

See Appendix E for tabular data

Sugar Price Status

• On 5/16/13 the sugar hit a new low at 16.82 ¢/lb. possibly – Ending the primary cycle at 20 weeks long (normal

range)– Possibly the 39 week cycle at 47 weeks long (getting

close to expanded cycle above 49 weeks)– Possibly the 27 months cycle at 23 months (within

range)– Possibly the 38 month cycle at 36 months (right on the

mark)– Possibly the 7 year cycle at 5.8 years (a bit shorter)– Small possibility that the 14 year cycle is also unfolding

here too (not preferred outlook)

Sugar Price Predictions

• Preferred outlook:

• 7 year cycle has started last month with the price expected appreciation between 113 to 1164% depending on harvest and geopolitical situations

– Minimal price would be to produce a double top to the highs of 36.08 ¢/lb. in Feb 2011, but it can go higher

• 27 and 38 month cycles probably started with price objectives based on the mean price gain for each of the respective cycles

– 38 month cycle crest mean price expectation is 78.66 ¢/lb.– 27 month cycle crest mean price expectation is 50.28 ¢/lb.

• 39 week cycle probably started with the price objective of 31.95 ¢/lb.

• This preferred outlook will become more probable as sugar will break above the 19.75 ¢/lb. high of the previous primary cycle

• If May was not the multi year low, then we are expecting the multi year low commence within by June 2015

Sugar Long Term Cycles

Appendix A

Sugar Intermediate Term Cycles

Appendix B

Sugar Cycles 66-71

Sugar Cycles 71-86

Sugar Cycles 85-99

Sugar Cycles 99-present

9 Month Cycle

Appendix C

9 – Month Cycle

Cycle Start Peak End Trough Crest Through Years Months Weeks % Gain % Loss

1 12/30/1966 6/30/1967 9/29/1967 1.28 3.65 1.74 0.7 9 39 185% 52%2 9/29/1967 11/30/1967 4/5/1968 1.74 2.91 1.94 0.5 6 27 67% 33%3 4/5/1968 5/24/1968 9/13/1968 1.94 2.42 1.61 0.4 5 23 25% 33%4 9/13/1968 12/6/1968 1/10/1969 1.61 3.21 2.99 0.3 4 17 99% 7%5 1/10/1969 4/30/1969 8/29/1969 2.99 4.16 2.75 0.6 8 33 39% 34%6 8/29/1969 6/30/1970 7/31/1970 2.75 4.04 3.68 0.9 11 48 47% 9%7 7/31/1970 1/29/1971 6/11/1971 3.68 5.27 4.07 0.9 10 45 43% 23%8 6/11/1971 10/29/1971 11/19/1971 4.07 4.99 4.68 0.4 5 23 23% 6%9 11/19/1971 3/10/1972 7/28/1972 4.68 10.24 5.18 0.7 8 36 119% 49%

10 7/28/1972 1/19/1973 2/16/1973 5.18 10.23 7.92 0.6 7 29 97% 23%11 2/16/1973 1/31/1973 9/7/1973 7.92 10.23 8.04 0.6 7 29 29% 21%12 9/7/1973 2/28/1974 3/29/1974 8.04 23.63 14.94 0.6 7 29 194% 37%13 3/29/1974 11/22/1974 12/20/1974 14.94 65.48 37.34 0.7 9 38 338% 43%14 12/20/1974 1/3/1975 6/30/1975 37.34 46 11 0.5 6 27 23% 76%15 6/30/1975 8/15/1975 12/5/1975 11 20.55 12.49 0.4 5 23 87% 39%16 12/5/1975 5/14/1976 6/4/1976 12.49 15.78 12.9 0.5 6 26 26% 18%17 6/4/1976 7/9/1976 12/30/1976 12.9 16.04 7.9 0.6 7 30 24% 51%18 12/30/1976 4/29/1977 9/23/1977 7.9 11.17 7.57 0.7 9 38 41% 32%19 9/23/1977 1/27/1978 7/28/1978 7.57 9.96 6.2 0.8 10 44 32% 38%20 7/28/1978 11/3/1978 7/27/1979 6.2 9.88 8.89 1.0 12 52 59% 10%21 7/27/1979 2/29/1980 3/21/1980 8.89 28.29 19.19 0.7 8 34 218% 32%22 3/21/1980 11/28/1980 12/12/1980 19.19 45.75 26.11 0.7 9 38 138% 43%23 12/12/1980 1/9/1981 9/11/1981 26.11 33.8 11.33 0.7 9 39 29% 66%24 9/11/1981 1/29/1982 6/18/1982 11.33 14.17 7.03 0.8 9 40 25% 50%25 6/18/1982 7/16/1982 2/28/1983 7.03 10.03 6.35 0.7 8 36 43% 37%26 2/28/1983 6/3/1983 11/18/1983 6.35 13.5 8.86 0.7 9 38 113% 34%27 11/18/1983 11/25/1983 8/17/1984 8.86 10.1 4.35 0.7 9 39 14% 57%28 8/17/1984 10/12/1984 6/21/1985 4.35 6.27 2.78 0.8 10 44 44% 56%29 06/21/85 11/05/85 12/30/85 2.3 9.58 4.4 0.5 6 27 317% 54%30 08/29/86 03/02/87 08/31/87 4.4 8.51 5.04 1.0 12 52 93% 41%

Date Price

9 – Month Cycle, cont.

31 08/31/87 01/25/88 4/29/1988 DB 5.4 10.83 7.75 0.7 8 35 101% 28%32 04/29/88 07/14/88 12/15/88 7.75 15.64 6.5 0.6 8 33 102% 58%33 12/15/88 09/29/89 12/29/89 6.5 15 12 1.0 12 54 131% 20%34 12/29/89 03/19/90 08/02/90 12 15.97 10.32 0.6 7 31 33% 35%35 08/02/90 08/24/90 04/30/91 10.32 11.71 7.18 0.7 9 39 13% 39%36 04/30/91 06/28/91 02/27/92 7.18 11.4 7.66 0.8 10 43 59% 33%37 02/27/92 06/17/92 02/02/93 7.66 11.14 7.96 0.9 11 49 45% 29%38 02/02/93 05/17/93 08/26/93 7.96 13.26 8.86 0.6 7 29 67% 33%39 08/26/93 03/14/94 04/11/94 8.86 12.47 10.5 0.6 7 33 41% 16%40 04/11/94 01/04/95 07/12/95 10.5 15.83 9.62 1.3 15 65 51% 39%41 07/12/95 02/27/96 04/30/96 9.62 13.08 10.05 0.8 10 42 36% 23%42 04/30/96 06/28/96 01/21/97 10.05 12.85 10.1 0.7 9 38 28% 21%43 01/21/97 08/19/97 09/26/97 10.01 12 10.65 0.7 8 35 20% 11%44 09/26/97 12/01/97 06/15/98 10.65 12.55 7.2 0.7 9 37 18% 43%45 06/15/98 07/20/98 05/03/99 7.2 9.12 4.36 0.9 11 46 27% 52%46 05/03/99 10/27/99 02/29/00 4.36 7.01 4.62 0.8 10 43 61% 34%47 02/29/00 10/16/00 11/08/00 4.62 11.4 9.22 0.7 8 36 147% 19%48 11/08/00 01/09/01 10/10/01 9.22 10.49 6.11 0.9 11 48 14% 42%49 10/10/01 01/09/02 06/21/02 6.11 8.05 4.97 0.7 8 36 32% 38%50 06/21/02 02/20/03 06/27/03 4.97 9.13 6.2 1.0 12 53 84% 32%51 06/27/03 08/05/03 02/12/04 6.2 7.39 5.27 0.6 8 33 19% 29%52 02/12/04 10/12/04 02/28/05 5.27 9.37 7.5 1.0 13 55 78% 20%53 02/28/05 10/04/05 11/10/05 7.5 11.91 11.13 0.7 8 36 59% 7%54 11/10/05 02/03/06 09/25/06 11.13 19.73 9.7 0.9 10 46 77% 51%55 09/25/06 10/17/06 06/13/07 9.7 12.65 8.37 0.7 9 37 30% 34%56 06/13/07 03/03/08 06/05/08 8.37 15.07 9.44 1.0 12 51 80% 37%57 06/05/08 08/01/08 04/08/09 9.44 14.69 12.15 0.8 10 44 56% 17%58 04/08/09 02/01/10 05/07/10 12.15 30.4 13 1.1 13 56 150% 57%59 05/07/10 02/02/11 05/06/11 13 36.08 20.4 1.0 12 52 178% 43%60 05/06/11 08/24/11 06/04/12 20.4 31.85 18.86 1.1 13 56 56% 41%61 06/04/12 07/23/12 5/12/2013 18.86 24 0.9 11 49 27%

18 Week Primary Cycle

Appendix D

18 Week Primary

Cycle Start Peak End Trough Crest Through Years Months Weeks % Gain % Loss

1 12/30/1966 2/3/1967 3/17/1967 1.28 2.05 1.66 0.2 3 11 60% 19%2 3/17/1967 6/30/1967 9/29/1967 1.66 3.65 1.74 0.5 6 28 120% 52%3 9/29/1967 11/30/1967 12/8/1967 1.74 2.91 2.24 0.2 2 10 67% 23%4 12/8/1967 12/29/1967 4/5/1968 2.24 2.75 1.94 0.3 4 17 23% 29%5 4/5/1968 5/24/1968 9/13/1968 1.94 2.42 1.61 0.4 5 23 25% 33%6 9/13/1968 12/6/1968 1/10/1969 1.61 3.21 2.99 0.3 4 17 99% 7%7 1/10/1969 4/11/1969 5/2/1969 2.99 4.16 3.7 0.3 4 16 39% 11%8 5/2/1969 6/20/1969 8/29/1969 3.7 4.1 2.75 0.3 4 17 11% 33%9 8/29/1969 10/31/1969 12/31/1969 2.75 3.67 2.9 0.3 4 18 33% 21%

10 12/31/1969 4/3/1970 4/17/1970 2.9 3.71 3.43 0.3 4 15 28% 8%11 4/17/1970 6/30/1970 7/31/1970 3.43 4.04 3.68 0.3 3 15 18% 9%12 7/31/1970 11/27/1970 12/11/1970 3.68 4.48 4.15 0.4 4 19 22% 7%13 12/11/1970 1/29/1971 6/11/1971 4.15 5.27 4.07 0.5 6 26 27% 23%14 6/11/1971 10/29/1971 11/19/1971 4.07 4.99 4.68 0.4 5 23 23% 6%15 11/19/1971 3/10/1972 3/24/1972 4.68 10.24 7.38 0.3 4 18 119% 28%16 3/24/1972 4/7/1972 7/28/1972 7.38 8.34 5.18 0.3 4 18 13% 38%17 7/28/1972 9/8/1972 11/3/1972 5.18 8.37 7.05 0.3 3 14 62% 16%18 11/3/1972 1/19/1973 2/16/1973 7.05 10.23 7.92 0.3 3 15 45% 23%19 2/16/1973 1/31/1973 6/15/1973 7.92 10.2 8.59 0.3 4 17 29% 16%20 6/15/1973 7/27/1973 9/7/1973 8.59 9.96 8.04 0.2 3 12 16% 19%21 9/7/1973 11/23/1973 11/30/1973 8.04 10.76 9.09 0.2 3 12 34% 16%22 11/30/1973 2/28/1974 3/29/1974 9.09 23.63 14.94 0.3 4 17 160% 37%23 3/29/1974 5/10/1974 6/28/1974 14.94 23.61 19.45 0.2 3 13 58% 18%24 6/28/1974 9/6/1974 9/20/1974 19.45 33.37 28.7 0.2 3 12 72% 14%25 9/20/1974 11/22/1974 12/20/1974 28.7 65.48 37.34 0.2 3 13 128% 43%26 12/20/1974 1/3/1975 4/11/1975 37.34 46 20.99 0.3 4 16 23% 54%27 4/11/1975 4/25/1975 6/30/1975 20.99 25.26 11 0.2 3 11 20% 56%28 6/30/1975 8/15/1975 12/5/1975 11 20.55 12.49 0.4 5 23 87% 39%29 12/5/1975 5/14/1976 6/4/1976 12.49 15.78 12.9 0.5 6 26 26% 18%30 6/4/1976 7/9/1976 9/17/1976 12.9 16.04 8.59 0.3 3 15 24% 46%

Date Price

18 Week Primary, cont.

31 9/17/1976 10/8/1976 12/30/1976 8.59 9.7 7.9 0.3 3 15 13% 19%32 12/30/1976 4/29/1977 7/15/1977 7.9 11.17 7.53 0.5 6 28 41% 33%33 7/15/1977 8/5/1977 9/23/1977 7.53 8.61 7.57 0.2 2 10 14% 12%34 9/23/1977 1/27/1978 3/17/1978 7.57 9.96 7.46 0.5 6 25 32% 25%35 3/17/1978 3/31/1978 7/28/1978 7.46 8.67 6.2 0.4 4 19 16% 28%36 7/28/1978 11/3/1978 2/2/1979 6.2 9.88 8.26 0.5 6 27 59% 16%37 2/2/1979 2/23/1979 7/27/1979 8.26 9.25 8.89 0.5 6 25 12% 4%38 7/27/1979 12/7/1979 12/14/1979 8.89 17.05 14.98 0.4 5 20 92% 12%39 12/14/1979 2/29/1980 3/21/1980 14.98 28.29 19.19 0.3 3 14 89% 32%40 3/21/1980 5/30/1980 7/11/1980 19.19 38.28 26.48 0.3 4 16 99% 31%41 7/11/1980 11/28/1980 12/12/1980 26.48 45.75 26.11 0.4 5 22 73% 43%42 12/12/1980 1/9/1981 5/8/1981 26.11 33.8 14.88 0.4 5 21 29% 56%43 5/8/1981 6/5/1981 9/11/1981 14.88 18.78 11.33 0.3 4 18 26% 40%44 9/11/1981 1/29/1982 3/19/1982 11.33 14.17 11.18 0.5 6 27 25% 21%45 3/19/1982 3/26/1982 6/18/1982 11.18 12.06 7.03 0.2 3 13 8% 42%46 6/18/1982 7/16/1982 10/8/1982 7.03 10.03 6.6 0.3 4 16 43% 34%47 10/8/1982 12/3/1982 2/28/1983 6.6 8.42 6.35 0.4 5 20 28% 25%48 2/28/1983 6/3/1983 7/22/1983 6.35 13.5 10.02 0.4 5 21 113% 26%49 7/22/1983 8/5/1983 11/18/1983 10.02 12.82 8.86 0.3 4 17 28% 31%50 11/18/1983 11/25/1983 3/9/1984 8.86 10.1 7 0.3 4 16 14% 31%51 3/9/1984 3/16/1984 8/17/1984 7 7.83 4.35 0.4 5 23 12% 44%52 8/17/1984 10/12/1984 12/28/1984 4.35 6.27 4.26 0.4 4 19 44% 32%53 12/28/1984 1/18/1985 6/21/1985 4.26 5.27 2.78 0.5 6 25 24% 47%54 06/21/85 11/05/85 12/30/85 2.3 5.81 4 0.5 6 27 153% 31%55 12/30/85 04/08/86 04/16/86 4 9.58 7.62 0.3 4 15 140% 20%56 04/16/86 05/06/86 08/29/86 7.62 9.25 4.4 0.4 4 19 21% 52%57 08/29/86 11/10/86 12/22/86 4.4 6.75 5.26 0.3 4 16 53% 22%58 12/22/86 03/02/87 04/22/87 5.26 8.51 6.35 0.3 4 17 62% 25%59 04/22/87 05/15/87 08/31/87 6.35 7.38 5.04 0.4 4 19 16% 32%60 08/31/87 01/25/88 02/26/88 5.04 10.83 7.56 0.5 6 26 115% 30%


61 02/26/88 03/29/88 04/29/88 5.04 9.22 7.75 0.2 2 9 83% 16%62 04/29/88 07/14/88 10/10/88 7.75 15.64 8.78 0.4 5 23 102% 44%63 10/10/88 12/09/88 12/15/88 8.78 11.25 6.5 0.2 2 9 28% 42%64 12/15/88 04/03/89 05/31/89 6.5 13.05 10.85 0.5 5 24 101% 17%65 05/31/89 07/05/89 08/28/89 10.85 14.7 13.06 0.2 3 13 35% 11%66 08/28/89 09/29/89 12/29/89 13.06 15 12 0.3 4 18 15% 20%67 12/29/89 03/16/90 04/18/90 12 16.28 14.9 0.3 4 16 36% 8%68 04/18/90 05/01/90 08/03/90 14.9 16.27 9.78 0.3 4 15 9% 40%69 08/03/90 08/24/90 10/15/90 9.78 11.71 9.08 0.2 2 10 20% 22%70 10/15/90 11/13/90 02/11/91 9.08 10.33 8.06 0.3 4 17 14% 22%71 02/11/91 02/27/91 04/30/91 8.06 9.97 7.18 0.2 3 11 24% 28%72 04/30/91 06/28/91 08/19/91 7.18 11.4 7.9 0.3 4 16 59% 31%73 08/19/91 09/30/91 11/15/91 7.9 9.7 8.12 0.2 3 13 23% 16%74 11/15/91 12/03/91 02/27/92 8.12 9.27 7.66 0.3 3 15 14% 17%75 02/27/92 06/17/92 07/01/92 7.66 11.14 9.18 0.3 4 18 45% 18%76 07/01/92 07/17/92 09/30/92 9.18 10.29 8 0.2 3 13 12% 22%77 09/30/92 10/14/92 02/02/93 8 9.03 7.96 0.3 4 18 13% 12%78 02/02/93 03/22/93 04/15/93 7.96 12.53 10.3 0.2 2 10 57% 18%79 04/15/93 05/17/93 08/26/93 10.3 13.26 8.86 0.4 4 19 29% 33%80 08/26/93 11/04/93 11/12/93 8.86 11.03 9.88 0.2 3 11 24% 10%81 11/12/93 03/14/94 04/11/94 9.88 12.47 10.5 0.4 5 21 26% 16%82 04/11/94 06/09/94 07/07/94 10.5 12.6 11.11 0.2 3 12 20% 12%83 07/07/94 09/15/94 10/11/94 11.11 12.85 12.13 0.3 3 14 16% 6%84 10/11/94 01/04/95 02/06/95 12.13 15.83 13.61 0.3 4 17 31% 14%85 02/06/95 02/27/95 07/12/95 13.61 15.2 9.62 0.4 5 22 12% 37%86 07/12/95 09/29/95 10/02/95 9.62 11.85 10.2 0.2 3 12 23% 14%87 10/02/95 01/10/96 01/16/96 10.2 12.02 10.83 0.3 3 15 18% 10%88 01/16/96 02/28/96 04/30/96 10.83 13.25 10.05 0.3 3 15 22% 24%89 04/30/96 06/28/96 08/08/96 10.05 12.85 11.28 0.3 3 14 28% 12%90 08/08/96 09/03/96 01/21/97 11.28 12.2 10.1 0.5 5 24 8% 17%


91 01/21/97 04/24/97 05/02/97 10.1 11.66 10.65 0.3 3 14 15% 9%92 05/02/97 08/19/97 09/25/97 10.65 12 10.6 0.4 5 21 13% 12%93 09/25/97 12/01/97 02/24/98 10.6 12.55 9.15 0.4 5 22 18% 27%94 02/24/98 03/31/98 06/15/98 9.15 10.2 7.2 0.3 4 16 11% 29%95 06/15/98 07/20/98 09/21/98 7.2 9.12 6.6 0.3 3 14 27% 28%96 09/21/98 11/18/98 12/22/98 6.6 8.5 7.42 0.3 3 13 29% 13%97 12/22/98 01/05/99 05/03/99 7.42 8.82 4.36 0.4 4 19 19% 51%98 05/03/99 07/01/99 07/12/99 4.36 6.34 5.05 0.2 2 10 45% 20%99 07/12/99 10/26/99 12/01/99 5.05 7.27 5.62 0.4 5 20 44% 23%100 12/01/99 12/06/99 03/01/00 5.62 6.27 4.98 0.2 3 13 12% 21%101 03/01/00 06/14/00 06/19/00 4.98 8.94 8.07 0.3 4 16 80% 10%102 06/19/00 10/16/00 11/09/00 8.07 11.4 8.67 0.4 5 20 41% 24%103 11/09/00 01/09/01 03/30/01 8.67 10.49 7.7 0.4 5 20 21% 27%104 03/30/01 04/30/01 10/10/01 7.7 9.82 6.11 0.5 6 28 28% 38%105 10/10/01 01/09/02 02/28/02 6.11 8.05 5.5 0.4 5 20 32% 32%106 02/28/02 03/15/02 06/21/02 5.5 6.37 4.97 0.3 4 16 16% 22%107 06/21/02 09/20/02 10/01/02 4.97 7.27 6.51 0.3 3 15 46% 10%108 10/01/02 12/04/02 12/31/02 6.51 8.1 7 0.2 3 13 24% 14%109 12/31/02 02/20/03 04/15/03 7 9.13 7.09 0.3 3 15 30% 22%110 04/15/03 04/28/03 06/30/03 7.09 7.9 6.07 0.2 2 11 11% 23%111 06/30/03 08/05/03 09/26/03 6.07 7.39 5.75 0.2 3 13 22% 22%112 09/26/03 12/10/03 02/12/04 5.75 6.79 5.27 0.4 5 20 18% 22%113 02/12/04 06/02/04 06/14/04 5.27 7.36 6.57 0.3 4 18 40% 11%114 06/14/04 08/03/04 09/21/04 6.57 8.43 7.33 0.3 3 14 28% 13%115 09/21/04 10/12/04 12/16/04 7.33 9.37 8.44 0.2 3 12 28% 10%116 12/16/04 01/26/05 02/28/05 8.44 9.33 7.5 0.2 2 11 11% 20%117 02/28/05 08/04/05 08/22/05 7.5 10.35 9.5 0.5 6 25 38% 8%118 08/22/05 10/04/05 11/10/05 9.5 11.91 11.13 0.2 3 11 25% 7%119 11/10/05 02/03/06 02/28/06 11.13 19.73 15.7 0.3 4 16 77% 20%120 02/28/06 03/30/06 06/13/06 15.7 18.48 14.57 0.3 3 15 18% 21%


121 06/13/06 07/06/06 09/25/06 14.57 17.25 9.7 0.3 3 15 18% 44%122 09/25/06 10/17/06 02/07/07 9.7 12.65 9.99 0.4 4 19 30% 21%123 02/07/07 02/27/07 06/13/07 9.99 11.49 8.37 0.3 4 18 15% 27%124 06/13/07 07/19/07 09/28/07 8.37 10.52 8.9 0.3 4 15 26% 15%125 09/28/07 12/26/07 01/02/08 8.9 11.19 10.62 0.3 3 14 26% 5%126 01/02/08 03/03/08 06/05/08 10.62 15.07 9.44 0.4 5 22 42% 37%127 06/05/08 08/01/08 10/24/08 9.44 14.69 10.44 0.4 5 20 56% 29%128 10/24/08 03/02/09 04/06/09 10.44 13.77 12.13 0.4 5 23 32% 12%129 04/06/09 05/12/09 06/17/09 12.13 16.03 14.7 0.2 2 10 32% 8%130 06/17/09 09/01/09 09/04/09 14.7 24.85 20.5 0.2 3 11 69% 18%131 09/04/09 09/30/09 12/09/09 20.5 24.12 20 0.3 3 14 18% 17%132 12/09/09 02/01/10 05/07/10 20 30.4 13 0.4 5 21 52% 57%133 05/07/10 08/02/10 08/10/10 13 19.88 17.51 0.3 3 14 53% 12%134 08/10/10 11/11/10 11/17/10 17.51 33.39 25.3 0.3 3 14 91% 24%135 11/17/10 02/02/11 05/06/11 25.3 36.08 20.4 0.5 6 24 43% 43%136 05/06/11 07/25/11 08/08/11 20.4 31.68 26.38 0.3 3 13 55% 17%137 08/08/11 08/24/11 12/15/11 26.38 31.85 22.62 0.4 4 18 21% 29%138 12/15/11 02/27/12 06/04/12 22.62 26.78 18.86 0.5 6 25 18% 30%139 06/04/12 07/23/12 09/06/12 18.86 24 18.81 0.3 3 13 27% 22%140 09/06/12 10/04/12 12/13/12 18.81 21.77 18.31 0.3 3 14 16% 16%141 12/13/12 01/02/13 4/29/2013 ? 18.31 19.75 17.13 0.4 5 20 8% 13%

Half and Major Cycles

Appendix E

Major Cycle: 8 of 25 primary cycles

Cycle Start Peak End Trough Crest Through Weeks % Gain % Loss

2 3/17/1967 5/10/1967 5/12/1967 1.66 3.15 2.65 8 90% 16%5/12/1967 6/30/1967 7/7/1967 2.65 3.65 1.97 8 38% 46%7/7/1967 7/21/1967 9/8/1967 1.97 2.4 1.74 9 22% 28%

4 12/8/1967 12/29/1967 1/19/1968 2.24 2.75 2.37 6 23% 14%1/19/1968 1/26/1968 3/8/1968 2.37 2.68 2.13 7 13% 21%3/8/1968 3/15/1968 4/5/1968 2.13 2.36 1.94 4 11% 18%

5 4/5/1968 5/24/1968 6/7/1968 2.37 2.42 1.97 9 2% 19%6/7/1968 6/21/1968 7/12/1968 2.13 2.23 1.93 5 5% 13%7/12/1968 8/9/1968 9/13/1968 1.94 2.17 1.61 9 12% 26%

9 8/29/1969 9/26/1969 10/10/1969 2.75 3.39 3.07 6 23% 9%10/10/1969 10/31/1969 11/7/1969 3.07 3.67 3.39 4 20% 8%11/7/1969 11/14/1969 12/31/1969 3.39 3.58 2.9 8 6% 19%

13 12/11/1970 1/29/1971 2/11/1971 4.15 5.27 4.66 9 27% 12%2/11/1971 3/12/1971 3/26/1971 4.66 5.13 4.3 6 10% 16%3/26/1971 4/16/1971 6/18/1971 4.3 4.8 4.07 12 12% 15%

14 6/18/1971 7/2/1971 7/23/1971 4.07 4.38 4.15 5 8% 5%7/23/1971 8/20/1971 9/17/1971 4.15 4.73 4.17 8 14% 12%9/17/1971 10/29/1971 11/19/1971 4.17 4.99 4.68 9 20% 6%

15 11/19/1971 1/7/1972 1/14/1972 4.68 8.71 7.41 8 86% 15%1/14/1972 2/4/1972 2/18/1972 7.41 9.4 8.39 5 27% 11%2/18/1972 3/10/1972 3/24/1972 8.39 10.24 7.38 5 22% 28%

22 11/30/1973 12/28/1973 1/4/1974 9.09 12.71 10.95 5 40% 14%1/4/1974 2/1/1974 2/8/1974 10.95 16.03 14.76 5 46% 8%2/8/1974 2/28/1974 3/29/1974 14.76 23.63 14.94 7 60% 37%

Date Price

Half Primary Cycle 16 of 25 primary cycles


1 12/30/1966 2/3/1967 2/10/1967 1.28 2.05 1.68 6 60% 18%2/10/1967 2/24/1967 3/17/1967 1.68 2 1.66 5 19% 17%

3 9/8/1967 10/18/1967 10/20/1967 1.74 2.73 2.37 6 57% 13%10/20/1967 11/30/1967 12/8/1967 2.37 2.91 2.24 7 23% 23%

6 9/13/1968 10/25/1968 11/1/1968 1.97 2.74 2.49 7 39% 9%11/1/1968 12/6/1968 1/10/1969 1.93 3.21 2.99 10 66% 7%

7 1/10/1969 3/14/1969 3/21/1969 2.49 3.87 3.75 10 55% 3%3/21/1969 4/11/1969 5/2/1969 2.99 4.16 3.7 6 39% 11%

8 5/2/1969 6/20/1969 7/11/1969 3.75 4.1 3.77 10 9% 8%7/11/1969 7/18/1969 8/29/1969 3.7 3.92 2.75 7 6% 30%

10 12/31/1969 1/16/1970 2/13/1970 2.9 3.42 3.12 6 18% 9%2/13/1970 4/3/1970 4/17/1970 3.12 3.71 3.43 9 19% 8%

11 4/17/1970 5/1/1970 5/22/1970 3.43 3.96 3.64 5 15% 8%5/22/1970 6/30/1970 7/31/1970 3.64 4.04 3.68 10 11% 9%

12 7/31/1970 8/28/1970 10/9/1970 3.68 4.11 3.83 10 12% 7%10/9/1970 11/27/1970 12/11/1970 3.83 4.48 4.15 9 17% 7%

16 3/24/1972 4/7/1972 5/12/1972 7.38 8.34 6.41 7 13% 23%5/12/1972 5/26/1972 7/28/1972 6.41 7.56 5.18 11 18% 31%

17 7/28/1972 9/8/1972 9/15/1972 5.18 8.37 6.62 7 62% 21%9/15/1972 10/6/1972 11/3/1972 6.62 8.15 7.05 7 23% 13%

18 11/3/1972 12/15/1972 12/21/1972 7.05 9.85 8.99 7 40% 9%12/21/1972 1/19/1973 2/16/1973 8.99 10.23 7.92 8 14% 23%

19 2/16/1973 3/2/1973 4/13/1973 7.92 9.18 8.04 8 16% 12%4/13/1973 1/31/1973 6/15/1973 8.04 10.2 8.59 9 27% 16%

20 6/15/1973 7/27/1973 8/17/1973 8.59 9.96 8.11 9 16% 19%8/17/1973 8/24/1973 9/7/1973 8.11 8.81 8.04 3 9% 9%

21 9/7/1973 10/12/1973 10/19/1973 8.04 9.75 8.79 6 21% 10%10/19/1973 11/23/1973 11/30/1973 8.79 10.76 9.09 6 22% 16%

23 3/29/1974 5/10/1974 5/31/1974 14.94 23.61 20.64 9 58% 13%5/31/1974 6/7/1974 6/28/1974 20.64 22.95 19.45 4 11% 15%

24 6/28/1974 8/9/1974 8/16/1974 19.45 28.27 25.34 7 45% 10%8/16/1974 9/6/1974 9/20/1974 25.34 33.37 28.7 5 32% 14%

Date Price

Non Conforming Cycles: 1 of 25 primary cycles


25 9/20/1974 11/22/1974 12/20/1974 28.7 65.48 37.34 13 128% 43%

Date Price

David Masson Shane Rawlings Mark Shtayerman. Sugar is the an agricultural commodity derived from sugar cane and sugar beet that is used in –Food industry.

Documents

year cycle

observed cycle

month cycle

end of cycle

mean cycle

longer cycle

week cycle

cycle troughs