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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
Global Interdependence Center 31st Annual Monetary & Trade Conference
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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
2
Factors Adding to Reserves
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
"T
DW
P - 8
/17
/07
"
TS
LF
-3/1
1/0
8
PD
CF
-3/1
6/0
8
Se
ries
Bre
ak
T
AF
-12
/12
/07
Se
ries
Bre
ak
$450
$600
$750
$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550
$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
8-A
ug
-07
28-N
ov-0
7
9-J
an
-08
20-F
eb
-08
2-A
pr-0
8
24-S
ep
-08
5-N
ov-0
8
17-D
ec-0
8
28-J
an-0
9
11-M
ar-0
9
22-A
pr-0
9
03-J
un-0
9
15-J
ul-0
9
26-A
ug
-09
07-O
ct-0
9
18-N
ov-0
9
30-D
ec-0
9
10-F
eb
-10
24-M
ar-1
0
5-M
ay-1
0
16-J
un-1
0
28-J
ul-1
0
8-S
ep
-10
20-O
ct-1
0
1-D
ec-1
0
12-J
an-1
1
23-F
eb
-11
6-A
pr-1
1
18-M
ay-1
1
29-J
un-1
1
10-A
ug
-11
21-S
ep
-11
2-N
ov-1
1
14-D
ec-1
1
25-J
an-1
2
7-M
ar-1
2
18-A
pr-1
2
30-M
ay-1
2
11-J
ul-1
2
22-A
ug
-12
3-O
ct-1
2
14-N
ov-1
2
26-D
ec-1
2
6-F
eb
-13
20-M
ar-1
3
$ B
n
Factors Adding to Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Assets) Plus
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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
3
Factors Using Reserves
Note: Data are weekly averages for all but the Foreign Central Bank TAF which are as of the last day of the week.
Source: Federal Reserve Board of Governors Statistical Release H.4.1.
TS
LF
-3/1
1/0
8, 9
50
"TD
WP
- 8/1
7/0
7"
TA
F-1
2/1
2/0
7
PD
CF
-3/1
6/0
8
Se
ries B
rea
k
Se
ries B
rea
k
$450
$600
$750
$900
$1,050
$1,200
$1,350
$1,500
$1,650
$1,800
$1,950
$2,100
$2,250
$2,400
$2,550
$2,700
$2,850
$3,000
$3,150
$3,300
27-J
un-0
7
8-A
ug
-07
28-N
ov-0
7
9-J
an
-08
20-F
eb
-08
2-A
pr-0
8
24-S
ep
-08
5-N
ov-0
8
17-D
ec-0
8
28-J
an-0
9
11-M
ar-0
9
22-A
pr-0
9
03-J
un-0
9
15-J
ul-0
9
26-A
ug
-09
07-O
ct-0
9
18-N
ov-0
9
30-D
ec-0
9
10-F
eb
-10
24-M
ar-1
0
5-M
ay-1
0
16-J
un-1
0
28-J
ul-1
0
8-S
ep
-10
20-O
ct-1
0
1-D
ec-1
0
12-J
an-1
1
23-F
eb
-11
6-A
pr-1
1
18-M
ay-1
1
29-J
un-1
1
10-A
ug
-11
21-S
ep
-11
2-N
ov-1
1
14-D
ec-1
1
25-J
an-1
2
7-M
ar-1
2
18-A
pr-1
2
30-M
ay-1
2
11-J
ul-1
2
22-A
ug
-12
3-O
ct-1
2
14-N
ov-1
2
26-D
ec-1
2
6-F
eb
-13
20-M
ar-1
3Factors Using Reserves on Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet (Liabilities)
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4
Projected Baseline Assets
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
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Projected Baseline Liabilities
Source: “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy.” Greenlaw, Hamilton, Hooper, and Mishkin (2013).
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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
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8
GDP Growth Needed to Create Enough Jobs for Unemployment to Hit 6.5%
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10
The Beveridge Curve: Job Vacancy Rate vs.
U-3 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5
Job
Vaca
ncy
Rate
U-3 Unemployment Rate
Dec '01- Nov '07 Dec '07- Jun '09 Jul '09- Feb '13
Nov '07
Dec '12
Jun '09
Dec '01
Dec '07
Jul '09
Feb '13
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey and Job Openings Labor Turnover Survey, April 9, 2013
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11
Monthly U-3 Unemployment vs. Inflation
Jan-07Feb-07 Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07Nov-07
Dec-07Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
May-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10
Mar-10Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10 Oct-10Nov-10
Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11May-11 Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11 Sep-11
Oct-11Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12
Apr-12May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12Jan-13
Feb-13
Fed Target
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
-3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e (U
-3)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close this Gap
During Crisis(Dec. '07-June '09)
Post Crisis(Jul '09-present)
Pre-Crisis(Jan '07-Nov '07)
(6.5% U-3 unemployment rate, 2.5% inflation rate)
Fed Wants to Close This Gap
Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013
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12
U3 Through U6
Source: BLS and Cumberland Advisors, Inc. Data through March 2013.
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13
Sources of Difference Between U6 and Standard Employment Statistic – U3
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Source: Concept: Thomas W. Synnott, Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics March 15, 2013
Monthly U-6 Unemployment vs. Inflation
Jan-07
Feb-07 Mar-07Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07 Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08 Mar-08Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09Apr-09
May-09 Jun-09
Jul-09Aug-09
Sep-09Oct-09 Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10
Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11Nov-11
Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12May-12
Jun-12Jul-12
Aug-12 Sep-12Oct-12
Nov-12Dec-12
Jan-13
Implied Fed Target
Feb-13
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
(U-6
)
Inflation (CPI )Pre-Crisis During Crisis Post Crisis Fed Wants to Close This Gap
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15
Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) & New Claims
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics, and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
Monthly Jobs Created (NSA) and New Claims as a Percent of Covered Employment
Recession Periods Jobs/Covered Employment 4 Wk Moving Ave of New Claims/Covered Emloyment
Given current size of the labor market, the economy would have to create an
average of 273K jobs per month for the ratio of Jobs/Covered Employment
to be comparable to what it was between July86-Nov90, Jan93-Mar00.
The number of jobs needed will increase as the labor force expands.
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16
Total Assets of Major Central Banks
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
Feb
-06
Ap
r-06
Jun
-06
Au
g-06
Oct-0
6
De
c-06
Feb
-07
Ap
r-07
Jun
-07
Au
g-07
Oct-0
7
De
c-07
Feb
-08
Ap
r-08
Jun
-08
Au
g-08
Oct-0
8
De
c-08
Feb
-09
Ap
r-09
Jun
-09
Au
g-09
Oct-0
9
De
c-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-10
Jun
-10
Au
g-10
Oct-1
0
De
c-10
Feb
-11
Ap
r-11
Jun
-11
Au
g-11
Oct-1
1
De
c-11
Feb
-12
Ap
r-12
Jun
-12
Au
g-12
Oct-1
2
De
c-12
Feb
-13
$ Billions
Monthly Central Bank Assets (Dollar Equivalents on Left Scale $ Billions) for US, UK,Japan, Euro Area, and Swiss National Bank
from June-06 to Dec-14
Federal Reserve Bank of England ECB Bank of Japan Swiss National Bank
2014 Cumberland
Estimates X
Estimates in
US Dollars
Total: $11.6 tr
Swiss: $1.38 tr
BOJ: 2.9 tr
ECB: 3 tr
BOE: 520 bn
Fed: 3.8 tr
Source: Credit Suisse and Cumberland Advisors, Inc.
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Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
17
European System of Central Banks
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1
/1
99
9
5/2
1/1
99
9
10
/8
/1
99
9
2/2
5/2
00
0
7/1
4/2
00
0
12
/1
/2
00
0
4/2
0/2
00
1
9/7
/2
00
1
1/2
5/2
00
2
6/1
4/2
00
2
11
/1
/2
00
2
3/2
1/2
00
3
8/8
/2
00
3
12
/2
6/2
00
3
5/1
4/2
00
4
10
/1
/2
00
4
2/1
8/2
00
5
7/8
/2
00
5
11
/2
5/2
00
5
4/1
4/2
00
6
9/1
/2
00
6
1/1
9/2
00
7
6/8
/2
00
7
10
/2
6/2
00
7
3/1
4/2
00
8
8/1
/2
00
8
12
/1
9/2
00
8
5/8
/2
00
9
9/2
5/2
00
9
2/1
2/2
01
0
7/2
/2
01
0
11
/1
9/2
01
0
4/8
/2
01
1
8/2
6/2
01
1
1/1
3/2
01
2
6/1
/2
01
2
10
/1
9/2
01
2
Eurosystem: Other Assets (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: General Govt DebtDenominated in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Securities of Euro AreaResid in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Oth Claim on Eur AreaCred Inst in Euro(NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Lending to Euro AreaCred Inst in Euro (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on NoneuroResidents in Euros (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Euro Res inFgn Currency (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Claims on Noneuro Resin Fgn Currency (NSA Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Asset: Gold and GoldReceivables (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Assets in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
18
European System - Liabilities
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
1/1
/1
99
9
5/1
4/1
99
9
9/2
4/1
99
9
2/4
/2
00
0
6/1
6/2
00
0
10
/2
7/2
00
0
3/9
/2
00
1
7/2
0/2
00
1
11
/3
0/2
00
1
4/1
2/2
00
2
8/2
3/2
00
2
1/3
/2
00
3
5/1
6/2
00
3
9/2
6/2
00
3
2/6
/2
00
4
6/1
8/2
00
4
10
/2
9/2
00
4
3/1
1/2
00
5
7/2
2/2
00
5
12
/2
/2
00
5
4/1
4/2
00
6
8/2
5/2
00
6
1/5
/2
00
7
5/1
8/2
00
7
9/2
8/2
00
7
2/8
/2
00
8
6/2
0/2
00
8
10
/3
1/2
00
8
3/1
3/2
00
9
7/2
4/2
00
9
12
/4
/2
00
9
4/1
6/2
01
0
8/2
7/2
01
0
1/7
/2
01
1
5/2
0/2
01
1
9/3
0/2
01
1
2/1
0/2
01
2
6/2
2/2
01
2
11
/2
/2
01
2
Eurosystem: Capital and Reserves
(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Revaluation Accounts
(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liabilities (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Counterpart of
SDRs Allocated by IMF (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Noneuro Area
Resid in Fgn Currency (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area
Residents in Fgn Currency (NSA,
Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Non-euro Area
Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Other Euro Area
Residents in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Debt Certificates
Issued (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Other Liab to Euro Area
Credit Inst in Euro (NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab to Euro Area Credit
Institutions in Euro(NSA, Mil.EUR)
Eurosystem: Liab: Banknotes in
Circulation (NSA, Mil.EUR)
European System of Central Banks Liabilities in Euros from 01/05/07 to 03/01/13
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
21
Swiss National Bank Assets
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
01
200
7
04
200
7
07
200
7
10
200
7
01
200
8
04
200
8
07
200
8
10
200
8
01
200
9
04
200
9
07
200
9
10
200
9
01
201
0
04
201
0
07
201
0
10
201
0
01
201
1
04
201
1
07
201
1
10
201
1
01
201
2
04
201
2
07
201
2
10
201
2
01
201
3
Swiss National Bank Assets in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
22
Swiss National Bank Liabilities
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
01
200
7
04
200
7
07
200
7
10
200
7
01
200
8
04
200
8
07
200
8
10
200
8
01
200
9
04
200
9
07
200
9
10
200
9
01
201
0
04
201
0
07
201
0
10
201
0
01
201
1
04
201
1
07
201
1
10
201
1
01
201
2
04
201
2
07
201
2
10
201
2
01
201
3
Swiss National Bank Liabilities in Swiss Francs from 01/31/07 to 01/31/13
Provisions and equity capital
Other liabilities
Counterpart of special drawing rights allocated bythe IF
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
Jul-
97
No
v-9
7
Ma
r-98
Jul-
98
No
v-9
8
Ma
r-99
Jul-
99
No
v-9
9
Ma
r-00
Jul-
00
No
v-0
0
Ma
r-01
Jul-
01
No
v-0
1
Ma
r-02
Jul-
02
No
v-0
2
Ma
r-03
Jul-
03
No
v-0
3
Ma
r-04
Jul-
04
No
v-0
4
Ma
r-05
Jul-
05
No
v-0
5
Ma
r-06
Jul-
06
No
v-0
6
Ma
r-07
Jul-
07
No
v-0
7
Ma
r-08
Jul-
08
No
v-0
8
Ma
r-09
Jul-
09
No
v-0
9
Ma
r-10
Jul-
10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-11
Jul-
11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-12
Jul-
12
No
v-1
2
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Assets from 7/ 97 to 2/13
Gold (Bil.Yen) Receivables Under Resale Agreements (Bi l.Yen) Bill s Purchased (Bil.Yen)
Government Securities in Custody (Bil.Yen) Commercial Bills Discounted (Bil.Yen) Commercial Paper (EOP, Bil.Yen)
Corporate Bonds (EOP, Bil.Yen) Pecuniary Trusts [Stocks Held as Trust Property] (Bi l.Yen) Index-Linked Exch-Traded Funds Held as Trust Prop(Bil.Yen)
Real Estate Invt Trusts (Bil.Yen) Cash (Bil.Yen) Japanese Government Securities (Bil.Yen)
Asset -B acked Securities (Bil.Yen) Loans Excluding Those to the Deposit Insurance Corp(Bil .Yen) Loans to Deposit Insurance Corporat ion (Bi l.Yen)
Foreign Currency Assets (Bil.Yen) Deposits with Agents (Bil.Yen) Cash Collat in Exchange for Govt Securities Borrowed(Bil.Yen)
Other (Bil.Yen) Total Assets (Bi l.Yen)
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
24
Bank of Japan Liabilities
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
180,000.00
Y
e
n
Bank of Japan Liabilities from 7/ 97 to 2/13
Banknotes (Bil.Yen) Current deposits (Bil.Yen) Other deposits (Bil.Yen)
Payables Under Repurchase Agreements (Bil.Yen) Bills Sold (Bil.Yen) Other (Bil.Yen)
Provisions (Bil.Yen) Deposits of the Govt(Bil.Yen) Capital (Bil.Yen)
Legal & Special Reserves (Bil.Yen) Govt Securities Borrowed (Bil.Yen) Total Liabilities & Capital Accounts (Bil.Yen)
®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.
Florida Office New Jersey Office (800) 257-7013 One Sarasota Tower 614 E. Landis Avenue 2 N. Tamiami Trail, Suite 303 Vineland, NJ 08360 Sarasota, FL 34236
25
All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable.
However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no