Table 4.1. Data Sources for NEEDS 2006 Data Source 1 Data Source Documentation DOE's Form EIA-860 (2003) DOE's Form EIA-860 is an annual survey of utility power plants at the generator level. It contains data such as summer, winter and nameplate capacity, location (state and county), status, prime mover, primary energy source, in-service year, and a plant-level cogenerator flag. DOE's Form EIA-767 (2003) DOE's Form EIA-767 is an annual survey, "Steam-Electric Plant Operation and Design Report", that contains data for utility nuclear and fossil fuel steam boilers such as fuel quantity and quality; boiler identification, location, status, and design information; and post- combustion NO x control, FGD scrubber and particulate collector device information. Note that boilers in plants with less than 10 MW do not report all data elements. The relationship between boilers and generators is also provided, along with generator-level generation and nameplate capacity. Note that boilers and generators are not necessarily in a one-to-one correspondence. NERC Electricity Supply and Demand (ES&D) database (2004) The NERC ES&D is released annually. It contains generator-level information such as summer, winter and nameplate capacity, state, NERC region and sub-region, status, primary fuel and on-line year. EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO 2006) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook presents annually updated forecasts of energy supply, demand and prices covering a 20-25 year time horizon. The projections are based on results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Information from AEO 2006, such as heat rates and renewable builds in response to state renewable portfolio standards (RPS)were used in NEEDS 2006. Global Energy Decisions New Entrants database (June 2006) Global Energy’s New Entrants database has information on new power plant builds, rerates and retirements. This was the primary source used in NEEDS 2006 for information on planned-committed units. EPA's Emission Tracking System (ETS 2005) The Emission Tracking System (ETS) database is updated quarterly and certified annually. It contains boiler-level information such as primary fuel, heat input, SO 2 and NO x controls, and SO 2 , NO x and CO 2 emissions. NEEDS2006 used ETS data for developing emission rate and post-combustion control information. Utility and RPO (Regional Planning Organizations) Comments Comments from selected U.S. utilities and RPOs regarding the population in NEEDS as well as unit characteristics were used in the Base Case 2006. 1 Indicated under “Data Source” are the primary issue dates of the indicated data sources that were used. Other vintages of these data sources were also used in instances where data were not available for the indicated issue date or where there were methodological reasons for using other vintages of the data.
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Data Source1 Data Source Documentation · Table 4.1. Data Sources for NEEDS 2006 Data Source1 Data Source Documentation DOE's Form EIA-860 (2003) DOE's Form EIA-860 is an annual survey
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Table 4.1. Data Sources for NEEDS 2006
Data Source1 Data Source DocumentationDOE's Form EIA-860(2003)
DOE's Form EIA-860 is an annual survey of utility power plants at thegenerator level. It contains data such as summer, winter andnameplate capacity, location (state and county), status, prime mover,primary energy source, in-service year, and a plant-level cogeneratorflag.
DOE's Form EIA-767(2003)
DOE's Form EIA-767 is an annual survey, "Steam-Electric PlantOperation and Design Report", that contains data for utility nuclear andfossil fuel steam boilers such as fuel quantity and quality; boileridentification, location, status, and design information; and post-combustion NOx control, FGD scrubber and particulate collector deviceinformation. Note that boilers in plants with less than 10 MW do notreport all data elements. The relationship between boilers andgenerators is also provided, along with generator-level generation andnameplate capacity. Note that boilers and generators are notnecessarily in a one-to-one correspondence.
The NERC ES&D is released annually. It contains generator-levelinformation such as summer, winter and nameplate capacity, state,NERC region and sub-region, status, primary fuel and on-line year.
EIA’s Annual EnergyOutlook (AEO 2006)
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlookpresents annually updated forecasts of energy supply, demand andprices covering a 20-25 year time horizon. The projections are basedon results from EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Information from AEO 2006, such as heat rates and renewable builds inresponse to state renewable portfolio standards (RPS)were used inNEEDS 2006.
Global Energy DecisionsNew Entrants database(June 2006)
Global Energy’s New Entrants database has information on new powerplant builds, rerates and retirements. This was the primary source usedin NEEDS 2006 for information on planned-committed units.
EPA's Emission TrackingSystem (ETS 2005)
The Emission Tracking System (ETS) database is updated quarterlyand certified annually. It contains boiler-level information such asprimary fuel, heat input, SO2 and NOx controls, and SO2 , NOx and CO2emissions. NEEDS2006 used ETS data for developing emission rateand post-combustion control information.
Utility and RPO (RegionalPlanning Organizations)Comments
Comments from selected U.S. utilities and RPOs regarding thepopulation in NEEDS as well as unit characteristics were used in theBase Case 2006.
1Indicated under “Data Source” are the primary issue dates of the indicated data sources thatwere used. Other vintages of these data sources were also used in instances where data were notavailable for the indicated issue date or where there were methodological reasons for using othervintages of the data.
Table 4.2. Rules Used in Populating NEEDS 2006ScopeGeographic Excluded units in Alaska or Hawaii
Capacity _ Excluded units with reported nameplate, summer and winter capacity of zero
Status _ Excluded units on long-term scheduled maintenance or units with forcedoutages for greater than three months or retired (i.e. units with status codes“OS” or “RE” in EIA Forms)
_ Status of boiler(s) and associated generator(s) were taken into account fordetermining operation status
Planned orFuture Units
_ Included planned units that had broken ground or secured financing and wereexpected to be online by the end of 2009
Firm/Non-firmElectric Sales
_ Excluded non-utility onsite generators that do not produce electricity for sale tothe grid.
_ Excluded all mobile and distributed generators
Table 4.3. Summary Population (through 2004) in NEEDS 2006
Plant Type Number of Units Capacity (MW)Biomass 130 2,142
Table 4.4. Hierarchy of Data Sources for Capacity in NEEDS 2006Sources Shown in Hierarchical OrderCapacity from Utility Comments2003 EIA 860 Summer CapacityNERC ES&D 2004 Summer Capacity2003 EIA 860 Winter CapacityNERC ES&D 2004 Winter Capacity2003 EIA 860 Nameplate CapacityNote: If a unit’s capacity was shown as zero,it was not included in NEEDS 2006.
Table 4.5. Capacity-Parsing Algorithm for Steam Units in NEEDS 2006
Type of Boiler-Generator LinkFor Boiler B1 toBN linked toGenerators G1 toGN
One-to-One One-to-Many Many-to-One Many-to-Many
MWBi = MWGi MWBi = åi MWGi
MWBi = (MFBi /åi MFBi) *MWGi
MWBi = (MFBi /åi MFBi) *åi MWGi
NotesMFBi = maximum steam flow of boiler iMWGj = electric generation capacity of generator j
Table 4.6. Data Sources for Unit Configuration in NEEDS 2006.UnitComponent
Primary DataSource
Secondary DataSource
Tertiary DataSource
Other Sources Default
Firing Type Utility/RPOComments
2003 EIA 767 - - -
Bottom Type Utility/RPOComments
2003 EIA 767 - - Dry
SO2 PollutionControl
NSR Settlementor Utility/RPOComments
EPA’s EmissionTracking System(ETS) - 2005
2003 EIA 767See Note1
NoControl
NOx PollutionControl
NSR Settlementor Utility/RPOComments
EPA’s EmissionTracking System(ETS) - 2005
2003 EIA 767 See Note1 NoControl
ParticulateMatterControl
NSR Settlementor Utility/RPOComments
EPA’s EmissionTracking System(ETS) - 2005
2003 EIA 767 1999 Hg ICR2
-
Notes1In addition to the primary, secondary and tertiary data sources listed here, the following sources were consulted andemission controls were updated when corroborating information could be found: McIlvaine Utility Upgrade Database,ICAC (Institute of Clean Air Companies), and web sites of generating unit owners and operators2Hg ICR refers to EPA’s “Information Collection Request for Electric Utility Steam Generating Unit MercuryEmissions Information Collection Effort (ICR).” See www.epa.gov/ttn/atw/combust/utiltox/mercury.html.
Table 4.7. Aggregation Profile of Model Plants as Provided at Set Up of EPA Base Case 2006
Landfill Gas643 55 Retrofit Coal to Selective Catalytic Reduction
(SCR)--- 278
Non Fossil_Other 251 69 Retrofit Coal to Selective NoncatalyticReduction (SNCR)
--- 257
Nuclear 104 104 Retrofit Oil and Gas to SCR --- 249Oil/Gas Steam 745 389 Retrofit Oil and Gas to SNCR --- 249Pumped Storage 146 22 Total --- 9,061Solar 240 12Wind 352 38Total 14,850 3,069
New Units RepoweringsConventionalPulverized Coal -Dry
--- 120 Coal to Combined Cycle repowering --- 870
ConventionalPulverized Coal -Wet
--- 120 Coal to IGCC repowering --- 870
AdvancedCombined Cycle
--- 128 Oil and Gas to Combined Cycle repowering --- 382
AdvancedCombustionTurbine
--- 128 Total --- 2,122
Nuclear --- 64Nuclear withInvestmentCredits
--- 64
Biomass --- 32Fuel Cell --- 32 Early RetirementsGeothermal --- 39 Coal Early Retirement --- 874IGCC --- 128 Oil and Gas Early Retirement --- 385IGCC withInvestmentCredits
--- 128 Combined Cycle Early Retirement --- 343
Landfill Gas --- 96 Combustion Turbine Early Retirement --- 1,018Solar --- 43Wind --- 435 Nuclear Early Retirement --- 104Total --- 1,557 Total --- 2,724
Grand Total (Existing and Planned/Committed + New + Retrofits + Repowerings + Early Retirements) 18,533
Table 4.8. VOM Assumptions (2004$) in EPA Base Case 2006
Table 4.9. FOM Assumptions Used in EPA Base Case 2006Prime Mover Type Primary Fuel NOx Control Age of Unit FOM (2004$/kW-Yr)Combined Cycle Oil & Gas Unscrubbed No NOx All Years 11.51ConventionalHydroelectric Water No NOx All Years 14.30Fuel Cell Natural Gas No NOx All Years 18.30Gas Turbine Oil & Gas Unscrubbed No NOx >30 years 8.32
0-20 years 3.40 20-30 years 7.91
Geothermal Earth No NOx All Years 18.30IGCC Coal Unscrubbed No NOx All Years 108.20MSW/Landfill Gas Landfill Gas No NOx All Years 21.50Pumped Storage Water No NOx All Years 18.30Solar Photovoltaic Sun No NOx All Years 17.20Solar Thermal Sun No NOx All Years 18.30Steam Turbine Coal Scrubbed - Dry No NOx 0 to 20 Years 37.75
20 to 30 Years 40.3830 to 40 Years 49.62Greater than 40 Years 55.36
SCR 0 to 20 Years 38.3520 to 30 Years 40.9830 to 40 Years 50.22Greater than 40 Years 55.96
SNCR 0 to 20 Years 38.0020 to 30 Years 40.6330 to 40 Years 49.87Greater than 40 Years 55.61
Coal Scrubbed - Wet No NOx 0 to 20 Years 38.6420 to 30 Years 41.2730 to 40 Years 50.51Greater than 40 Years 56.25
SCR 0 to 20 Years 39.2420 to 30 Years 41.8730 to 40 Years 51.11Greater than 40 Years 56.85
SNCR 0 to 20 Years 38.8920 to 30 Years 41.5230 to 40 Years 50.76Greater than 40 Years 56.50
Coal Unscrubbed No NOx 0 to 20 Years 29.2720 to 30 Years 31.9030 to 40 Years 41.14Greater than 40 Years 46.88
SCR 0 to 20 Years 29.8720 to 30 Years 32.5030 to 40 Years 41.74Greater than 40 Years 47.48
SNCR 0 to 20 Years 29.5220 to 30 Years 32.1530 to 40 Years 41.39Greater than 40 Years 47.13
Oil & Gas Unscrubbed No NOx 0 to 20 Years 15.9420 to 30 Years 19.2630 to 40 Years 20.36Greater than 40 Years 26.57
SCR 0 to 20 Years 16.7620 to 30 Years 20.0830 to 40 Years 21.18Greater than 40 Years 27.39
SNCR 0 to 20 Years 16.1220 to 30 Years 19.4430 to 40 Years 20.54Greater than 40 Years 26.75
Wind Wind No NOx All Years 19.70Wood/Biomass Biomass No NOx All Years 16.70
Table 4.10. Summary of Planned-Committed Units in EPA Base Case 2006Year Range
Table 4.12. Regional Cost Adjustment Factors for Conventional and RenewableGenerating Technologies
Model Region NameRegionCode
RegionalFactor
Commonwealth Edison COMD 1.004East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement - MISO-KY ECAK 1.004East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement - MISO ECAM 1.004East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement - PJM ECAP 1.004Entergy ENTG 0.96Electric Reliability Council of Texas ERCT 0.986Florida Reliability Coordinating Council FRCC 0.961Long Island Lighting Company LILC 1.879Downstate New York DSNY 1.043New York City NYC 1.989Upstate New York UPNY 1.043Mid-Atlantic Area Council - East MACE 0.996Mid-Atlantic Area Council - South MACS 0.996Mid-Atlantic Area Council - West MACW 0.996Mid-America Interconnected Network - South MANO 1.004Michigan Electric Coordination System MECS 1.004Midwest Regional Planning Organization MRO 1.004New England Power Pool NENG 1.145Southern Company SOU 0.96Southwest Power Pool - North SPPN 0.997Southwest Power Pool - South SPPS 0.997Tennessee Valley Authority TVA 0.96Virgina-Carolinas VACA 0.96Dominion Virginia Power VAPW 0.96Wisconsin-Upper Michigan WUMS 1.004Western Electricity Coordinating Council - AZNMSNV AZNM 1.003Western Electricity Coordinating Council - California North CA-N 1.058Western Electricity Coordinating Council - California South CA-S 1.058Western Electricity Coordinating Council-Northwest Power PoolEast NWPE 1.026Western Electricity Coordinating Council - Pacific Northwest PNW 1.026Western Electricity Coordinating Council - Rocky Mountain PowerArea RMPA 1.003Western Electricity Coordinating Council - Southern Nevada SNV 1.003
Table 4.13. Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Capacity from Conventional FossilTechnologies in EPA Base Case 2006
Note: Since the Variable Operating and Maintenance costs of fossil-fired plants in EPA Base Case 2006 change according to the segment(s) of a load duration curve in which aplant operates; VOM is expressed as a range of values.
Table 4.14. Performance and Unit Cost Assumptions for Potential (New) Renewable and Non-Conventional Technology CapacityBiomass
GasificationCombined Cycle
Wind FuelCells
SolarPhotovoltaic
SolarThermal Geothermal Landfill
Gas
Size (MW) 80 50 10 5 100 50 30
First Year Available 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
Note: The potential electric capacity from new landfill gas units is based on AEO 2006, which applies the listedlimits to the indicated NEMS (National Energy Modeling Sytem) regions. In EPA Base Case 2006 the sum ofthe new landfill gas electric capacity in the IPM regions shown in a specific row cannot exceed the limits listedin that row. Capacity limits for three categories of potential landfill gas units are distinguished in this tablebased on the rate of methane production at sites: LGHI = high rate of landfill gas production, LGLo = low rateof landfill gas production, and LGVLo = very low rate of landfill gas production.
Table 4.21. Reserve Margin Contribution and Average Capacity Factor by Wind Class and ModelRegion