Data Cabling Classification

Installed CablingInstalled Cabling- forecast to 2005 -- forecast to 2005 -

Alan FlatmanAlan FlatmanPrincipal ConsultantPrincipal Consultant

LAN Technologies UKLAN Technologies UK

[email protected]

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

This study was commissioned by Cisco Systems.

Base cabling market data was provided by BSRIA.

Big Questions

What kind of cabling for 10GBASE-T?

1. Where are we today in terms of cabling?

2. If 10GBASE-T becomes an approved 802.3project, what will the installed cabling baselook like when it is likely to be approved(early 2006)?

Market Data

1. Cable types by Category/Class

2. Installation trends BC to 2005

3. National & regional variations

4. Global installed base to 2005

Data Sources

BSRIABSRIA

• Building Services Researchand Information Association

• Cabling research since 1987

• 37 countries forecast to 2005

• Cat segmentation by country

Cabling IndustryCabling Industry

• providing replacement data

• 10 suppliers being surveyed(owning 60% market share)

• consultants also surveyed

• replacement rate guide now /detailed data in March 2003

Types of Copper CablingTypes of Copper Cabling

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 10 100 1000 MHz MHz MHz MHz

NEXTdB

Ins LossdB/100m

Cable Insertion Loss & NEXT

Cat 7

Cat 5

Cat 6

Cat 3

Cat 5e

Channel Configuration

Equipment Cable

NIC

Fixed Horizontal Cable

Channel = 100m max

Consolidation Point

Work Area Cable

Floor Distributor

PatchCable

CP Cable

Outlets

Switchor hub

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 10 100 1000

Cat 7/Class F

Old Cat 5/ old Class D

Cat 3/Class C

Cat 6/Class E

Channel Insertion Loss & NEXT

MHz MHz MHz MHz

Cat 5e/new Class D

NEXTdB

Ins LossdB/100m

Channel Return Loss

-20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

1 10 100 1000

dB

MHzMHzMHzMHz

Cat 7/Class F

Cat 5e/new Class D

Cat 6/Class E

Cat 5/old Class D

no specification!no specification!

Installation TrendsInstallation Trends

Segmentation

• Outlets segmented by Category

• Outlets segmented by region:

» Western Europe 30% in 2002

» Eastern Europe

» North America 42% in 2002

» Latin America

» Asia-Pacific 22% in 2002

» Middle East

• Regional variations highlighted

0

10

20

30

40

5019

84

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5C a t 4C a t 3

Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: BC to 2005 Western Europe

Source: BSRIASource: BSRIA

actualforecast

Initial Observations

• Cat 3, Cat 4, Type 1, coax declinedafter introduction of Cat 5 cabling

• Operating life of structured cablingintended to be at least 15 years

• Actual life has been as low as 6 yrs

• At least 90% of 1980s cabling isforecast to be replaced by 2005;hence precluded from this analysis

0

10

20

30

40

50

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

C a t 7C a t 6C a t 5eC a t 5

Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Western Europe


actualforecast

Western European Trends

• Latest research points to approx 4%deeper recession from 2001 to 2002

• Approx 50% horiz’l cables screened» overall foil-screened cables in France

» pair-screened cables in Germ/Aus/Switz

• 85% Cat 7 in Germany/Austria/Switz

• Significant levels of Cat 7 cable usedfor Class E channels (perhaps 50%)

» equivalent to 18 million outlets

• Fibre outlets 1.5% of total shipments(BSRIA 2002)

0

1

2

3

4

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cat 7

Cat 6

Cat 5e

Cat 5

Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Eastern Europe


actualforecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 North America


actualforecast

North American Trends

• Marked recession from 2000 to 2001

• 99% horizontal cables unscreened

• Early & aggressive market for Cat 6


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Latin America


actualforecast

0

10

20

30

40

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Asia-Pacific


actualforecast

Asia-Pacific Trends

• Earlier recession from 1999 to 2000

• 98% horizontal cables unscreened

• 40% outlets in China, strong growth


0

1

2

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 Middle East


actualforecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Annual Shipments: 1991 to 2005 World-wide


actualforecast

Installed BaseInstalled Base

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Cumulative World-wide Shipments


actualforecast

Installed Base Model Assumptions

• 40% new shipments replace existing cabling» for cabling upgrades & building refurbishment

» some regional and industry sector variation

» world-wide trend from 1997, in/out of recession

• new shipments apportioned to Cat 5/Cat 5e:

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cat 5 40% 40% 40% 40% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%

Cat 5e 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005


Outlets(millions)

Estimated World-wide Installed Base(40% new shipments replaces existing cabling)

Source: Source: LAN TechnologiesLAN Technologies(2003)(2003)

Estimated World-wide Installed Base

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Cat 5 100% 97% 89% 77% 63% 51% 41% 31% 23% 15%

Cat 5e 0% 3% 10% 20% 31% 39% 45% 50% 51% 50%

Cat 6 0% 0% 1% 3% 6% 10% 13% 19% 26% 34%

Cat 7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

Source: LAN Technologies (2003)Source: LAN Technologies (2003)

SummarySummary

FTTD0.4%

C at 6/C las s E13%

C at 7/C las s F0.2%

C at 5/o ld C las s D

41%

C at 5e/n ew C las s D

45%

Estimated World-wide Installed Base in Dec 2002


total outlets680 million

Note: Ignored Cat 3(~7% installed base)

will inflate Cat 5 share

C at 7/C las s F0.4%

C at 5/o ld C las s D

15%

FTTD0.6%

C at 6/C las s E34%

C at 5e/n ew C las s D

50%

Estimated World-wide Installed Base in Dec 2005


total outlets925 million

Note: Ignored Cat 3(~4% installed base)

will inflate Cat 5 share

Estimated World-wide Installed CablingGrowth from Jan 2003

(Based on Annual Growth Rates 2002-2005)

- 7%

+ 8%

+ 11%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Cat 5/old Class D Cat 5e/new Class D Cat 6/Class E

average% annualchange in

penetration of world-wideinstalled base


Lifecycles19

84

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Cat 3

Cat 4

Cat 5

Cat 5e

Cat 6

Cat 7

10BASE-T

100BASE-TX

1000BASE-T

10GBASE-T

CFI STD

Ethernet Cabling Estimates at Birth

IEEE 802.3 Number Installed Outlets

Ethernet Type Std Approved Cat 5 Cat 5e Cat 6

100BASE-TX June 1995 100m - -

1000BASE-T June 1999 340m 65m 8m

10GBASE-T Jan 2006?? 136m 465m 320m


Questions?Questions?

Data Cabling Classification

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