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BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD SPECIALISTS IN MANAGING LISTED REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS LOCAL LISTED PROPERTY FIRST HALF 2020 Valuation Performance Outlook Lessons from the past Property Fundamentals Environmental, Social & Governance
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DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

Jul 25, 2020

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Page 1: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

BI-ANNUALDASHBOARD

SPECIALISTS IN MANAGING LISTED REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS

LOCAL LISTED PROPERTYFIRST HALF 2020Valuation

Performance

Outlook

Lessonsfrom the past

PropertyFundamentals

Environmental,Social &

Governance

Page 2: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

PERFORMANCE 1/2

ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE

INDIVIDUAL STOCK PERFORMANCE

Source: Bloomberg

YTD (year-to-date) data is 1 January to 30 June 2020

-50%

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40%

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60%

Annu

al To

tal R

etur

n

ALPI SAPY ALSH ALBI Cash

-50%

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-10%

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al To

tal R

etur

n

Calendar year

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19YTD’20

The SAPY and ALPI delivered total returns of -37.56% and -38.3% respectively year-to-date ended 30 June 2020 relative to cash (3.2%), bonds (0.3%) and equities (-3.2%). Property returns have been materially impacted by the imposed “hard” lockdown during March 2020 which had a devastating impact on the SA economy including commercial real estate. SA Listed Property recorded a total return of -36.57% in the month of March alone. Downgrades to the country’s sovereign credit rating by Moody’s to junk status further explains some of the weakness in property returns year to date. The SAPY and ALPI sectoral exposure is heavily weighted toward the retail subsector, which experienced limited trading during lockdown.

The best performing companies year-to-date were Atlantic Leaf, Lighthouse, Stenprop and Investec Australia. Atlantic Leaf announced a cash offer for its shares by SouthDowns Investment LP at a price of £80.5 pence per share which represented a premium of 44.46% to the 30day VWAP at the time of the announcement. Stenprop is a dual listed property company with a focus on UK multi-let industrial. The UK industrial sector may have some tailwinds driven by supply chain reconfiguration to fulfil ecommerce, however the abundance of zoned industrial land and increased supply may negate market rental growth. Furthermore, the pandemic has filtered even more spend into online channels and will likely continue to do so beyond the end of Covid-19. Lighthouse announced an equity issuance of 600m new ordinary shares for cash & shares in NEPI Rockcastle and Hammerson. The company further announced a strategic stake in Hammerson which owns and operates retail malls and parks in the United Kingdom.

Some of the worst performing companies year-to-date were Intu, Hammerson, Hospitality B, Capital & Regional and Redefine. Intu, Hammerson and Capital & Regional have exposure to shopping centres and retail parks in the United Kingdom. UK retail is a sector that was already facing structural headwinds pre-Covid-19 due to material valuation write-downs and an acceleration of online sales on brick & mortar sales. Intu further announced in the month of June that administrators had been appointed and that trading in its shares has been suspended. Hospitality property fund, a specialist REIT on the JSE investing in the hospitality industry, provided an operational update to the market and the impact felt by Covid-19. Given low occupancies and deactivation of some hotels, the group anticipated a breach in debt covenant requirements for the rolling 12-month period ended 30 September 2020.

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

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Page 3: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

2/2

SECTOR INCOME & CAPITAL RETURN

Source: Bloomberg

Data is as at 31 December 2019

Redefine’s balance sheet has weakened over the years as the company ventured offshore. The last reported loan-to-value of 44% was above sector and peer averages and materially higher on a see-through basis (52.4%). The company does not expect any distribution income from offshore investments in the short term, with the exception of the European Logistics platform. Redefine was also removed from the JSE Top 40 and MSCI indices in the month of June and May respectively.

-40%

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30%

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50%

60%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Secto

r Retu

rn

Calendar year

Income return Capital return

Stability ofIncome

PERFORMANCEBI-ANNUAL

DASHBOARDFIRST HALF 2020

Page 4: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

LESSONS FROM THE PAST 1/2

Over the past few years, growth in the South African listed property sector has been driven primarily by growth in offshore exposure by local listed companies externalising capital and through new listings of foreign based companies. The driving force behind the offshore strategies has been the lack of earnings growth opportunities in South Africa given low GDP growth outlook, a rising interest rate environment and low capitalisation rates. Favourable funding spreads offshore and geographic diversification has been the main attraction for most South African investors to these markets.

Prior to the 2008 global financial crisis, Australian listed property companies were in a similar position as SA listed property companies where growth opportunities declined due to intense local competition. As a result, A-Reits started exploring opportunities offshore. However, the quality of assets acquired were generally of a poorer quality and located in secondary markets. In addition, the investments were generally highly geared. Following the global financial crisis, asset prices fell materially, and the overleveraged companies were forced to raise equity to recapitalise their balance sheets or face bankruptcy.

The S&P/ASX300 A-REIT Index delivered an annual return of -55.3% in 2008, with highly geared trusts being among the worst performers due to readily available credit evaporating, property valuations moderating and banks introducing restrictive loan covenants, subsequently leading to breaches by many REITs.

From approximately 2009 the South African property sector’s largest companies, Growthpoint, Redefine and Resilient, started making inroads into offshore markets. Growthpoint invested into Australia’s Orchard Industrial Property Fund (later renamed Growthpoint Australia (GOZ)), Redefine invested into Wichfords Investment Advisor and Ciref (later renamed Redefine International) and Resilient invested in New European Property Investment (NEPI). As at the end of May 2020, the offshore assets of the All Property Index constituted more than 45% of total assets on a see-through basis.

Redefine’s balance sheet has weakened over the years as it ventured offshore by funding equity stakes with significant offshore gearing. The last reported (Feb’20) loan-to-value of 44% is above sector and peer averages and materially higher on a see-through basis (52.4%).

It was no surprise that Redefine, together with its highly geared equity investments EPP (LTV 50%) and RDI PLC (LTV 44.1%), came under considerable pressure when most countries moved into lockdown and the rand weakened on sovereign ratings downgrades.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes” – Mark Twain

Source: Redefine interim results presentation February 2020

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Page 5: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

LESSONS FROM THE PAST 2/2

The use of currency derivatives to fund offshore investments has been a contentious point of debate within the sector. We have long debated with management teams the risks posed by using such exotic structures and the inherent risks posed to capital structures. Given the lower JIBAR rates, increased volatility in currency and the associated treasury risks, management teams have recently decided to reduce, cancel, or restructure their exposure to cross-currency swap positions.

Fortress recently reduced their nominal exposure to cross-currency interest rate swaps (CCIRS) by €162m. Resilient terminated their entire CCIRS in June 2020 whilst Vukile is in the process of re-evaluating their balance sheet and capital structure, including possible conversion of Euro debt to ZAR debt. Redefine is looking to restructure its Pound sterling debt post the disposal of RDI REIT shares.

The above analysis illustrates the meaningful treasury risks associated with the use of derivative products, especially in an environment where assets backing such structures are also declining. As long-term investors in property we welcome the decisions taken to eliminate some of the structures to better position company balance sheets and enhance the cashflow generating ability going forward.

Source: Bloomberg

Data is as at 30 June 2020

*Spot rates at end of December 2019 used where inception rates have not been disclosed

Period

YTD Total Returns

Redefine PropertiesLtd -57.25%

EPP NV -45.25%RDI REIT PLC -26.80%

ALPI -38.35%

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

FIRST HALF 2020

YEAR-TO-DATE CUMULATIVE TOTAL RETURN

Equites

Fortress

Investec Property

Investec Property

Investec Property

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Redefine

Redefine

Resilient

Vukile

£ 92

€ 465

€ 39

AUD 43

£ 32.89

AUD 970

$ 337

€ 86

£ 78

€ 418

£ 100

€ 221

€ 186

19.1

15.7

15.7

9.8

18.6

9.8

14.0

15.7

18.5

15.7

18.6

15.6

15.0

21.5

19.4

19.4

12.0

21.5

12.0

17.4

19.4

21.5

19.4

21.5

19.4

19.4

ZAR (222)

ZAR (1,719)

ZAR (144)

ZAR (91)

ZAR (96)

ZAR (2,076)

ZAR (1,124)

ZAR (318)

ZAR (233)

ZAR (1,547)

ZAR (293)

ZAR (851)

ZAR (816)

Company Nominal Dec’19(million)

Averageexchange rate/ZAR

at inception*Exchange rate/ZAR

at June 2020Estimated MtM

June 2020 (million)

Equites

Fortress

Investec Property

Investec Property

Investec Property

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Growthpoint

Redefine

Redefine

Resilient

Vukile

£ 92

€ 465

€ 39

AUD 43

£ 32.89

AUD 970

$ 337

€ 86

£ 78

€ 418

£ 100

€ 221

€ 186

19.1

15.7

15.7

9.8

18.6

9.8

14.0

15.7

18.5

15.7

18.6

15.6

15.0

21.5

19.4

19.4

12.0

21.5

12.0

17.4

19.4

21.5

19.4

21.5

19.4

19.4

ZAR (222)

ZAR (1,719)

ZAR (144)

ZAR (91)

ZAR (96)

ZAR (2,076)

ZAR (1,124)

ZAR (318)

ZAR (233)

ZAR (1,547)

ZAR (293)

ZAR (851)

ZAR (816)

Company Nominal Dec’19(million)

Averageexchange rate/ZAR

at inception*Exchange rate/ZAR

at June 2020Estimated MtM

June 2020 (million)

Page 6: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

The sector’s discount to NAV at the end of the quarter was 45%, which is well below the historical 5-year premium to NAV of 1.73%. NAV growth is expected to be negative over the short term due to capitalisation rate expansion and lower market rental growth.

Capitalisation Rates: We think current reported capitalisation rates are overstated across most sub-sectors. According to MSCI data, the current capitalisation rate of 8.3% for all property assets is 50bps below its long-term average. We see risks of capitalisation rates moving out in the short-term in line with increased bond yields and structural risks facing certain retail categories and offices.

Market rental growth: Valuers have historically factored in rental growth of between 5% - 6% in valuations. We are forecasting rental growth to be lower due to the negative long-term impact of Covid-19 on what was an already weak property fundamentals market outlook in South African Real Estate.

Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and are likely to persist in the short to medium term. Reversions on expiring leases in offices and certain retail categories are negative. Due to the oversupply in most subsectors, high vacancies, and lower market rental growth forecasts, we see negative reversions persisting over time and impacting on like-for-like net operating income growth.

NET ASSET VALUE (NAV) PREMIUM / DISCOUNT

SAPY YIELD VS SA 10-YEAR BOND YIELD

VALUATION 1/2

Source: Bloomberg and Catalyst Fund Managers

Source: Bloomberg and Catalyst Fund Managers

Data is as at 30 June 2020

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Yiel

d

Calendar year

SAPY DY RLRS

SA 10yr government bond yield increased by

90bps over the past 12 months & 138bps

over the past 5 years.

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Calendar year

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Calendar year

Prem

ium/(d

iscou

nt)

5 year sector average NAV

premium of 1.73%

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

FIRST HALF 2020

Page 7: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

As at May 2020, SAPOA research suggests property expenditure is assumed to grow at circa 7% per annum over the medium term, in line with NERSA’s approved tariff increase of 6.9% for municipalities. Municipal charges continue to make up the largest percentage (62%) of overall operating cost.

We forecast funds available for distribution to decline by -36.5% over the next 12 month rolling period. This is driven by the impact of Covid-19 on operations - rental concessions being negotiated, increasing vacancies, high tenant incentives and letting commissions; as well as oversupply across subsectors resulting in negative reversions on renewals. Distributions and pay-out policies are currently being reviewed by most management teams and we anticipate that the historical pay-out ratio of 100% will be revised lower in line with global norms. Numerous SA REITs and listed property companies have postponed or suspended dividend payments and withdrawn their DPS guidance statements as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

VALUATION 2/2

Source: Anchor Stockbrokers; Catalyst Fund Managers.

T (03 April 2020) +1: Rolled forward income yield on distributable income. We are forecasting reduction in payout ratios & dividend cuts/deferrals due to COVID-19.

SAPY FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR DISTRIBUTION(FAD) GROWTH

Hyprop

EPP

SA Corporate

Redefine

Arrowhead

Indluplace

RDI

Dipula

Vukile

Interim

Final

Final

Interim

Interim

Interim

Interim

Interim

Final

Postponed Period

Texton

Hammerson

Octodec

MAS

Hospitality

Delta

Interim

Final

Interim

Final

Final

Final

Suspended Period

Calendar year

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

FAD

Gro

wth

31-Dec-04

31-Dec-05

31-Dec-06

31-Dec-07

31-Dec-08

31-Dec-09

31-Dec-10

31-Dec-13

31-Dec-14

31-Dec-15

31-Dec-16

31-Dec-17

31-Dec-18

31-Dec-19 T+1 T+2 T+3

31-Dec-11

31-Dec-12

OUR COMMENTARY

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Page 8: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS 1/2

April and May rental collections reported by retail REITS were the weakest amongst the three traditional commercial real estate subsectors. Rental collections remain under pressure, with non-essential services, mid-tier tenants and SMMEs showing most strain. Growthpoint reported retail collections of 47%, 54% and 81% for the months of April, May and June whilst Vukile reported 72%, 73% and 65% for the respective months. Despite the relaxation of trade restrictions, we still expect retail trading conditions to remain weak in the short term. We do not anticipate a return to normalised trading levels in the short term due to consumers reluctance to return to public spaces, stores adhering to social-distancing requirements and a compromised consumer due to the weak economic backdrop and the prospect of job losses across various sectors of the economy.

Globally, with the notable exception of Ireland and Russia, most countries had lifted many of the earlier lockdown restrictions. Businesses from all sectors are gradually assessing and returning to a new normal which for some will look very different to 3 months ago. Despite the easing of restrictions, the road to recovery remains uncertain and will depend on several factors including, but not limited to, the length of time it takes to find a vaccine and the behavioural changes that are sure to result from the lockdown.

The IMF projects GDP growth in advanced economies to be -8% in 2020 and emerging markets -3%, with material differences across individual economies, reflecting the evolution of the pandemic and the effectiveness of containment strategies.

At the end of May, South Africa moved to Level 3 of the SA government strategy of a risk-adjusted approach based on alert levels. A much broader number of retailers have been allowed to reopen for trade which may significantly benefit collection rates in the short-term. Collection rates have been particularly topical with several companies disclosing estimates of their April, May and June collection rates.

RETAIL

OVERVIEW

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, June 2020 Update.

ALPI exposure not on a see-through basis.

*CEE forecasts based on ‘Emerging & Developing Europe’ as per IMF classification

Source: World Wide Worx

0%

5%

10%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2007 2008 200920042003 2005 2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Perc

enta

ge

Australia

Germany

CEE*

South Africa

Spain

United Kingdom

United States

2.80%

1.50%

3.20%

0.80%

2.40%

1.30%

2.90%

1.80%

0.60%

2.10%

0.20%

2.00%

1.40%

2.30%

-4.50%

-7.80%

-5.80%

-8.00%

-12.80%

-10.20%

-8.00%

4.00%

5.40%

4.30%

3.50%

6.30%

6.30%

4.50%

Region 2018 2019 2020 2021

4.00%

5.40%

4.30%

3.50%

6.30%

6.30%

4.50%

2021

3.2%

2.9%

22.5%

64.3%

0.0%

7.0%

0.0%

ALPI Exposure

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

FIRST HALF 2020

ONLINE RETAIL YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH (2003-2020)

Page 9: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS 2/2

According to research by Broll Property Intel, online retail has grown substantially over the years both globally and in SA. SA’s local online retail was expected to surpass R14 billion in 2018, accounting for 1.4% of SA’s total retail and reaching 2% by 2022.

The risk of an accelerated structural change to retail continues to be a headwind. Global retail giant Inditex group reported online sales of 14% of total sales for 2019 financial year and targets online sales above 25% of total sales by end of 2022. Locally, The Foschini Group’s online turnover now contributes 8.4% to Group retail turnover. Foschini has prioritised capital expenditure to focus on e-commerce platforms and digital transformation initiatives, whilst the Woolworths group expects online sales to make-up 20% of total sales by 2025. It is clear that the retail landscape will continue to change and while we expect a rise in online shopping, quality retail centres will have a critical role in any economy as part of an ongoing evolution to a world of omnichannel retailing.

The domestic office sector was the weakest going into the Covid-19 environment. Growthpoint reported collection rates on its SA office portfolio of 92%, 85% and 88% for the months of April, May and June respectively. As Governments move towards the gradual reopening of their economies, business attention has turned towards the re-occupancy of offices. This is far from a ‘normal’ return to office life. The necessary requirement to respect social distancing measures could lead to the reconfiguration of office layouts with a potential reduction in office capacity in the medium to long term.

We expect vacancies to increase as demand for office space remains sluggish and the impact of corporate failures filter through. As at Q1 2020, the national office vacancy rate, as recorded bySAPOA, was 11.6%. Sandton A-Grade office vacancies were reported at 18.5%, whilst the City of Cape Town recorded the lowest overall office vacancy at 8.0%.

It remains unclear what the future for office space, as we have come to know it, will look like. Some of the challenges that landlords could be faced with include possible changes in occupier demand requirements and more flexible or hybrid solutions. Growthpoint has recently introduced a SmartFLEX campaign which offers leases of 3 to 18 months across 28 buildings within their current portfolio.

Collection rates were the highest recorded in the months of April and May. The SA portfolio of Equites recorded 92.8% collection for the 2 months whilst the UK portfolio collected 100% of contractual rents. Rental collections remain robust, but management teams recognise that the ability to collect rentals in future is contingent upon the tenants’ ability to maintain operations. We think a weak economic backdrop will impact on supply chains and tenant distress will inevitably turn to failure for some corporates, leading to a possible increase in vacancies in the short term. This could be offset by the accelerated shift to online as retailers reopen and adjust to a new marketplace.

OFFICES

INDUSTRIAL

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Page 10: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE

Sustainability is a trend on the rise in every sector of the business world. From consumers to corporates, there has been a global shift bringing environmental and social consciousness to the fore. Corporate governance and responsible investing have also proven to be paramount to the value and risk ascribed to companies in this fluid environment. Companies with management teams that have historically acted irresponsibly, by taking excessive debt levels, investing in quantity over quality, creating inorganic growth and once-off unsustainable incomes, have seen their valuations plunge.

The Covid–19 pandemic has shone the spotlight on the role that responsible businesses play in society. We have seen management teams of some REITs introduce salary cuts for employees, including board members and executive directors to share the burden of the crisis.

Businesses are launching new initiatives to help those in need during this time. Fortress’s executive and non-executive directors have, in their individual capacities, collectively pledged R2 million to various initiatives. EPP donated 17,000 masks to local hospitals which were purchased from one of their current tenants. EPP also provided meals to medical staff as part of the property4heroes campaign, involving some of the biggest players from the commercial property sector in Poland. We welcome the appointment of Dr Barry Schoub, a virology expert who previously served on several World Health Organisation (WHO) committees, in the capacity of strategic advisor to the Board of Vukile on health matters related to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The JSE published a letter on 26th May 2020 requesting input from all stakeholders on the matter related to the various forms of relief requested by entities that have been granted REIT status.

Our view is that deferrals should only be considered in a case where the Board of Directors of a company have made an assessment on the overall financial health of the company and considers it necessary, based on solvency and liquidity requirements stipulated in Section 46 of the Companies Act, No 71 of 2008. We are in favour of the JSE amending section 13.47 (a) of the JSE listing requirements by extending the period that companies have to pay dividends after the financial year-end. We are not in favour of a blanket dispensation not to pay dividends but rather each company should be considered by the JSE on a case-by-case basis.

On the 26th of June 2020, the JSE, together with the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA), made a ruling that no blanket dispensation will be granted by the JSE and that an extension of two months will be granted to companies with year ends between 29th February 2020 and 30th September 2020.

At Catalyst we endeavour to provide sustainable portfolio solutions. ESG policies and procedures form a central part of this process. Environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) issues affect the long-term performance of these companies as well as align investors with the broader objectives of society in which the company operates or has direct physical assets.

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Page 11: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

OUTLOOK

Our 5-year annualised nominal return forecasts for the sector range between 16% and 20%. This is underpinned by revised lower GDP and short-term inflation forecasts which has translated into lower market rental growth across most sub-sectors. We are forecasting the short to medium-termimpact of the hard lockdown on rent collections and, where we deem it appropriate, cut/ deferdividends where bank interest cover ratio covenants may be breached.

Our forecasted forward funds available for distribution (FAD) of 8.86%, circa 30-40% lower than our pre-Covid dividend, takes into account the materially lower earnings due to Covid-19. Off this low base, we are expecting FAD growth to be circa 8% per annum, which is in excess of long-term inflation forecasts. In the short-term we expect volatility to persist as the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns play out on businesses and the economy.

Source: Catalyst Fund Managers

Data is as at 30 June 2020

Sector is expected to deliver a return of 16% to 20% over the

long-termRETURNS MATRIX ALPI

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

FIRST HALF 2020

17.4%

18.3%

19.1%

20.0%

20.8%

16.8%

17.7%

18.5%

19.4%

20.2%

16.3%

17.1%

17.9%

18.8%

19.6%

15.7%

16.5%

17.4%

18.2%

19.0%

15.2%

16.0%

16.8%

17.7%

18.5%

7.59%

6.1%

7.1%

8.1%

9.1%

10.1%

7.84% 8.09% 8.34% 8.59%

4-yr

Div

iden

d G

row

th

Exit FAD yield (After Capex)

Page 12: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

FOUNDED2001Mvula Seroto

Portfolio ManagerCA(SA), CFA

RAGING BULL WINNER

RAGING BULL WINNER

YEARS OF PROPERTY

EXPERIENCE100

PROFILE

AWARDS

Mvula has 6 years of property experience. He is also a member of the South African

Black Property Practitioners (SAIBPP) and Association of Black Securities and

Investments Professionals (ABSIP).

Catalyst Global Real Estate UCITS Fund

Catalyst Global Real Estate Prescient Feeder Fund

2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017

2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019

AUTHOR OVERVIEW

TEAM

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[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]@catalyst.co.za

[email protected]@catalyst.co.za

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected]

Page 13: DASHBOARD · 2020-07-20 · African Real Estate. Escalations and Reversions: Reported escalations on new leases have started trending lower to track inflation in the short term and

YEAR-TO-DATE 2020 INDIVIDUAL SHARE PERFORMANCE

ANNEXURE

Source: Bloomberg and CFM

Data is as at 30 June 2020

BI-ANNUAL DASHBOARD

FIRST HALF 2020

APF SJACS SJAHA SJAHB SJALP SJATT SJBWN SJCCO SJCRP SJDLT SJDIA SJDIB SJEMI SJEQU SJEXP SJFVT SJFFA SJFFB SJGTC SJGTR SJGRT SJHMN SJHET SJHPB SJHYP SJIAP SJILU SJITU SJIPF SJL2D SJLTE SJMSP SJNRP SJNFP SJOCT SJ EPP SJPPR SJREB SJREA SJRDF SJRES SJRPL SJSAC SJSAR SJSCD SJSRE SJSEA SJSTP SJSSS SJTEX SJTWR SJTDH SJ TPF SJVKE SJ

ACCPROP ACSION ARROWHEAD A ARROWHEAD B ATLEAF ATTACQ BALWIN CAPCO CAPREG DELPROP DIPULA-A DIPULA-B EMIRA EQUITES EXEMPLAR FAIRVEST FORTRESS-A FORTRESS-B GLOBE TRADE CENTRE GRIT REAL GROWTHPOINT HAMMERSON HERIOT HOSPITALITY-B HYPROP IAPF INDLU INTUPROP INVESTEC PROPERTY FUND LIBERTY 2D LIGHTHOUSE MAS NEPI ROCK NEW FRONTIER OCTODEC POLSKA PROP PUTPROP REBOSIS REBOSIS A REDEFINE RESILIENT RI PLC SA CORPORATE SAFARI SCHROEDERS SIRIUS SPEAR REIT STENPROP STOR-AGE TEXTON TOWER TRADEHOLD TRANSCEND VUKILE

-2.84%-7.69%3.98%

-0.26%4.00%

-6.64%-10.57%-0.37%

-14.95%-5.63%-1.00%

-21.43%-3.03%-0.70%7.78%

-4.08%-4.21%-6.38%0.00%7.14%

-4.61%-18.24%

4.55%-1.45%-3.89%4.02%0.00%

-45.05%-5.02%2.69%1.15%3.87%

-0.27%-40.00%-0.59%1.34%

-20.00%31.25%

-33.33%-4.89%-4.32%7.08%

-5.23%15.90%5.11%

10.38%-2.46%11.93%-3.25%-9.09%-7.33%-2.34%7.37%

-7.73%

-2.73%0.00%

-3.83%-21.64%-4.94%

-16.15%6.06%

-17.06%-16.48%-37.31%-10.61%-25.45%-8.12%

-13.04%0.00%

-6.91%-12.47%-33.24%

0.00%-3.09%

-16.55%-10.80%

0.00%-25.20%-17.15%-8.39%

-12.82%-31.40%-17.51%-21.51%-9.09%

-16.43%-7.69%

-33.33%-19.07%-8.52%-5.00%

-26.19%-70.38%-24.48%-11.66%-10.44%-28.28%-4.65%-3.64%-9.74%-6.32%-5.66%-9.79%

-12.00%-17.74%-18.73%

0.00%-18.10%

-68.07%0.00%

-15.42%-39.39%-21.71%-46.08%-25.14%-8.69%

-46.97%-35.71%-22.60%-30.24%-42.65%-4.17%-5.15%

-28.57%-34.54%-58.22%

0.00%-14.58%-26.88%-60.68%

0.00%-45.63%-57.43%-14.17%-17.35%-58.05%-40.38%-3.76%

-23.75%-33.83%-31.46%-55.56%-36.92%-61.01%10.53%

-45.16%-22.08%-56.35%-41.67%-36.80%-45.67%-19.51%-22.55%-10.23%-36.07%-14.00%-3.49%

-36.36%-48.70%

2.63%5.40%

-51.71%

Ticker Stock January Feb Mar

71.05%6.67%

-5.88%-17.22%13.26%15.60%

-17.56%4.27%

13.90%48.15%

-22.04%18.18%2.70%

-0.60%-2.17%8.92%0.20%

39.29%-10.53%

0.08%17.95%-4.72%0.00%

44.59%0.00%8.76%

-9.25%26.26%19.91%17.53%19.67%5.50%6.53%

125.00%-19.13%-15.32%

2.00%58.82%

-30.00%-4.22%12.47%-8.75%6.19%

-11.82%5.63%

11.88%-4.57%1.86%1.61%

-7.86%19.44%-4.62%-8.57%

-23.59%

Apr

13.85%-6.25%

-25.00%-9.40%32.59%

-11.28%31.48%-6.83%8.58%5.00%0.56%

15.38%-13.60%

3.63%6.67%3.23%9.68%

-2.14%-37.94%

3.69%-10.41%-1.24%0.00%

-35.37%-10.26%11.19%-5.88%0.00%5.82%

-3.68%12.22%

-11.63%12.02%

-38.89%-10.32%16.19%-0.24%29.63%

269.05%-15.42%

3.50%10.34%

-11.62%20.27%

-11.24%3.69%

24.23%-1.78%2.77%

-6.98%11.63%-6.99%1.56%

14.05%

May

9.46%-8.33%41.67%25.93%2.36%4.58%

-4.93%-11.42%-18.87%-4.76%11.55%-7.69%16.10%2.58%5.32%

17.19%12.16%28.82%0.00%5.34%6.97%7.89%0.00%

-12.28%31.32%8.29%

10.00%-76.80%

7.10%-2.55%18.62%37.89%-0.83%72.73%7.96%

53.93%-16.47%-2.86%

-28.39%72.40%16.30%19.96%29.29%-4.57%3.00%

-4.40%11.17%20.60%5.38%

16.67%21.25%2.44%0.00%

24.64%

June

-48.89%-15.38%-15.42%-55.26%18.98%

-54.72%-26.83%-35.07%-62.21%-43.66%-40.10%-48.57%-47.36%-12.57%12.34%

-15.97%-32.34%-54.15%-44.47%-3.05%

-34.20%-70.89%

4.55%-67.15%-60.05%

7.10%-32.31%-95.37%-36.52%-14.44%11.70%

-26.16%-25.32%-57.78%-60.26%-45.25%-28.60%

6.25%-71.54%-56.22%-33.25%-26.80%-55.19%-9.97%

-24.24%-0.81%

-23.01%9.57%

-7.31%-49.09%-36.77%-25.97%

5.08%-60.36%

YTD