DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 3: 10/13/2015 ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast.

DARGAN M. W. FRIERSONDEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

DAY 3 : 10 /13 /2015

ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast

Next: Who’s Responsible?

How much are average emissions for: Citizen of the world Average American Nations of the world

Which sectors do emissions come from? Transportation Electricity generation Industry

“Carbon efficiency”

Carbon Dioxide vs Other Pollutants

Most pollution is felt near the source Air quality near urban centers or coal power plants Water quality near mining, etc

CO2 is not like this! Since CO2 stays in the atmosphere for so long,

everyone’s emissions affect everyone else Truly a global problem

So it makes sense to think about who’s responsible

How Much Carbon Dioxide Is There?

Total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: 3100 gigatonnes

World emissions: over 34 gigatonnes per year 1 gigatonne = 1 billion metric tons

And one metric ton is a little more than a regular ton (2000 pounds)

4.8 tonnes per person per year!

Note sometimes stats are given in tonnes of carbon instead… CO2 is heavier than C by a factor of 3.67 (b/c of the

oxygen)

Gigatonnes…

Confession: I hate dealing with really big numbers like this I think they’re hard to put into our everyday

experience Say a company advertises they cut emissions by 500

pounds of CO2 per day: is this a lot or a little??It’s important to know the numbers too, but

let’s first talk about an easier way to visualize emissions

The “Carbon Blanket”

What if all the CO2 in the atmosphere sank to the surface of the Earth and was in one layer of gas Forming a carbon blanket all over the globe

It would be 3.2 meters (10.5 feet) thick Preindustrial (1750) thickness was 2.3 m (7.5 feet) 1990 thickness was 2.9 m (9.5 feet)

Adding to the Carbon Blanket

Each year we emit the equivalent of 3.7 cm (1.5 inches) to the blanket A little over a foot per decade…

What Happens to CO2 Emissions?

Not all of those emissions go into the atmosphere though A little less than 50% does actually…

25% goes into the ocean Unfortunately this leads to ocean acidification (a

future topic)30% goes into land ecosystems

So around 6 inches per decade is added into the blanket…

Pieces of the Blanket: China

We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting…

China: 25%

8.5 gigatonnes per year

Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: USA

We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting…

USA: 16%

5.4 gigatonnesper year

Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: Canada

We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting…

Canada: 1.5%

0.5 gigatonnesper year

Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: Bangladesh

We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting…

Bangladesh: 0.2%

65 million tonnes per year

Source of images: carbonquilt.org

National Emissions

Another way to look at national carbon dioxide emissions Area of each country is made proportional to its

emissions

Source of images: WorldMapper

Our Individual Share: USA

Per capita matters Some of these countries are so large because they

have large populations

USA per capita emissions: 17.3 tonnes per year

100 pounds per day

Individual Share: World Average

Per capita matters Some of these countries are so large because they

have large populations

World per capita emissions: 4.8 tonnes per year

30 pounds per day

Emissions Numbers

World average per capita emissions is 4.8 tonnes World population: 7 billion total emissions are 34

billion tonnes (34 gigatonnes)

Countries by CO2 Emissions

China: 25%US: 16%European Union: 10%India: 6%Russia: 5%Japan: 3%All other countries less than 2% each

Countries by Per Capita CO2 Emissions

World average is 4.8 tonnes per yearHighest are oil producing states (e.g., Qatar,

Kuwait)US is rather high (12th): 3.3 times world average

(17.3 tonnes per person per year) Australia, Canada have similar emissions as US per

capitaRussia, Korea, Many EU countries, Japan: 8-

13 tonnes/yrFrance, Spain, China: 5-7 tonnes/yrIndia: 1.7 tonnes/yr

2010-2011 numbers

Exporting CO2 Emissions

Bought anything made in China lately?? Who should pay the cost of carbon emissions

from goods made in one country but exported to other countries?

Related concept is “carbon leakage”: when production of goods moves to a location with less strict regulation of emissions

The Developing World

2.2 billion people live on less than $2/day1.3 billion live without access to electricity

Future of Emissions for Developing Nations

The developing world will soon surpass developed countries in CO2 emissions

Advanced

Developing

OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentincludes 30 countries, mostly industrialized

Developing nations will be a massive energy market in the future… What fuels will they use?(this plot assumes no additional regulations)

What Makes Up the Emissions?

oil

90% fossil fuel burning, 10% deforestation

Coal and oil makes up 80% of worldwide fossil fuel emissions

Oil for transportation, coal for electricity

What Makes Up the Emissions?

Industry: 29% Getting more efficient & dropping in importance More and more shifting to developing countries like

China, India Another equity concern: “carbon leakage”

Electricity and heat generation: 18%Deforestation/soils: 15%Transportation: 15%

Rising rapidlyOther fuel-related emissions: 13%

Coal, oil, and gas productionAgriculture: 7%

From textbook & World Resource Institute (all greenhouse gases)

US Emissions Sources

Electricity: 42%Transportation: 32%Industry: 15%Residential: 6%Commercial: 4%

2008 data, EPA

US Emissions Sources

If you distribute electricity use into the other sectors:

Transportation: 32%Industry: 27%Residential: 21%Commercial: 19%

2008 data, EPA

How About in Seattle?

Recent study by Brookings Institution says Seattle is 6th best in the country (5.7 tons CO2 each per year) Hydroelectric power means small electricity emissions Relatively mild climate means small home heating Surprisingly, Los Angeles was #2 in this study

Study did not include industrial emissions, or airplane travel (which constitutes most of my personal footprint) Also only CO2, no methane, etc No emissions associated with where we get food & goods

eitherWe’ll discuss Seattle more in future weeks…

Summary

Big problem spanning lots of different sectors Can’t blame just one type of energy use

Trends in energy use Industry is getting more efficient Residential is getting worse

Partially due to significantly larger home sizes Transportation is getting worse

More cars on the roads, longer driving distances