Daniel Chapman*, James Bullock, Tom Haynes, Stephen Beal, Mikhail Sofiev & Marje Prank * Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK, [email protected]ENV.B2/ETU/2010/0037: “Assessing and controlling the spread and the effects of common ragweed in Europe”
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Daniel Chapman*, James Bullock, Tom Haynes, Stephen Beal ...internationalragweedsociety.org/IRC_Lyon/IRC_Oral/14Chapman.pdf · Krasicka-Korczyńska, E. & Korczyński, M. (1994) [Ambrosia
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Daniel Chapman*, James Bullock, Tom Haynes, Stephen
Déchamp et al. (2009) Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. an invasive weed in Europe and adjacent countries: the geographical distribution (except France) before 2009. Ambroisie: The first international ragweed review, 24-46.
Linking phenology and distribution
Development rate depends on hourly temperature and
photoperiod (Deen et al. 2001)
Where can ragweed reproduce before frost?
Deen W., Swanton C.J. & Hunt L.A. (2001). A mechanistic growth and development model of common ragweed. Weed Science, 49, 723-731.
De
ve
lop
me
nt ra
te
De
ve
lop
me
nt ra
te
Phenology predicts the northern limit
N America Europe 10km
Moving the predicted limit south reduces accuracy
Moving the predicted limit north does not increase
accuracy
Proportion of presences correctly predicted
Predicted range limit
Phenology predicts the northern limit
Seeds are regularly produced
Too cold for seeds
Bra
nd
es &
Nitz
ch
e (2
00
6) N
achric
hte
nb
latt d
es D
euts
ch
en
Pfla
nze
nsch
utzd
ienste
s 5
8:2
86-2
91
Da
hl e
t al. (1
99
9) A
ero
bio
logia
15:2
93
-297
Dé
cha
mp
et a
l. (200
9) A
mb
rois
ie: T
he
first in
tern
atio
na
l ragw
eed
revie
w, p
24
-46
Re
zn
ik (2
00
9) A
mb
rois
ie: T
he
first in
tern
atio
na
l ragw
eed
revie
w, p
88-9
7
Ric
h (1
99
4) G
rana 3
3:3
8 - 4
3
Sa
ar e
t al. (2
00
0) A
ero
bio
logia
16:1
01
-106
Skjø
th e
t al. (2
00
9) IO
P C
onf. S
erie
s: E
arth
and
En
viro
nm
enta
l Scie
nce
), p 1
42
03
1
Other factors may limit ragweed
Dynamic model of ragweed invasion
Germination
Production of viable seed
Contaminated seed imports
from USA
Contaminated seed imports from invaded
countries
Seed bank
Dispersal to nearby
populations
Output distribution
“Habitat quality”
EXTINCTION
The habitat quality model
The habitat quality model
Déchamp et al. (2009) Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. an invasive weed in Europe and adjacent countries: the geographical distribution (except France) before 2009. Ambroisie: The first international ragweed review, 24-46.
Simulated spread over 60 years
History of spread may not be
produced (no data to test).
The model should show
where ragweed
can invade.
Simulated current distribution
Infestation in south east Europe
Rhône Valley invasion
Climate is suitable but crop and urban cover is low.
Invasion of microhabitats? Error in land use data?
Casual weed in north west Europe
High imports to crops
Contaminated seed imports drive spread
Banning contaminated
seed imports reduces
spread.
Trade within Europe
more important than
imports from USA.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Nu
mb
er o
f gr
id c
ells
occ
up
ied
Simulation year
No ban
Ban imports from native range
Ban imports from invaded range
Ban all imports
Import ban
Conclusions
We have mapped ragweed’s distribution in a good part of Europe.
Phenology is a key determinant of distribution.
Modelled ragweed invasion:
• Good fit to the distribution where we have data.
• Populations establish and spread in SE Europe.
• Imports sustain populations in the north, mainly as an urban weed.
• Biosecurity action should prioritise seed trade within Europe.
Conclusions
WARNING – many simplifications had to be made in the model:
• No data on actual history of spread.
• Crude seed trade model based on recent national import volumes.
• No weather or climate change.
• No land use change.
• No variation in agricultural practices.
Next steps:
• Predict pollen dispersal with SILAM (see poster by Prank et al.).
• Run the model with climate and land use change scenarios.