Daniel B. Gilbert & Bruce A. Boe Weather Modification, Inc. Fargo, North Dakota USA Dr. Terry W. Krauss Krauss Weather Services & Alberta Severe Weather Management Society Alberta, CANADA WMI Photograph by Mike Torris & Joel Zimmer Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting Aboard “The Queen Mary” Long Beach, California 27 April 2016
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Daniel B. Gilbert & Bruce A. Boe Weather Modification, Inc. Fargo, North Dakota USA
Dr. Terry W. Krauss Krauss Weather Services & Alberta Severe Weather Management Society
Alberta, CANADA
WMI Photograph by Mike Torris & Joel Zimmer
Weather Modification Association Annual Meeting Aboard “The Queen Mary” Long Beach, California 27 April 2016
AHSP Project Area
AHSP Project Area
AHSP Project Area
SEEDING BUFFER ZONE
PROTECTED AREA
Approximately 11,100 mi2
(28,800 km2)
Cities and towns, not agriculture
RADAR & OPS CENTER
Quick History
• Alberta Research Program 1956-1986
• 1991 Calgary storm
• The Alberta Severe Weather Management Society (ASWMS)
• Rebirth of AHSP in 1996
+
Average Number of Lightning Days 1999 – 2009
Burrows and Kochtubajda (2010)
Hail frequency in Canada
Population Density
2011 Census
Operations Design
Five Aircraft: three Beechcraft C90 King Airs, two Cessna 340As.
Two aircraft bases, one in the south, west of Calgary, the other up north
just SW of Red Deer.
Operations are all directed from central operations area about
halfway between Calgary and Red Deer.
AHSP Infrastructure
Cessna 340A 310 HP per side
1,650 fpm climb rate
220 kts max speed
29.8 kft service ceiling
24-30 BIPs, 102 EJs
2 wingtip generators
Two Cessna 340A aircraft are employed in the AHSP. Hailstop 2 is based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 4 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.
King Air C90 550 HP per side
2,137 fpm climb rate
270 knots max cruise
30 kft service ceiling
48 BIPs and 306 EJs Three King Air C90 aircraft are deployed in the AHSP. Hailstop 1 and 5 are based in Springbank, west of Calgary, and Hailstop 3 is based at the Red Deer Regional Airport, immediately SW of Red Deer.
The Key Personnel
• Alberta Severe Weather Manager Society
– Chairman: Todd Klapak
– Project Director: T.W. Krauss
• Weather Modification, Inc.
– On-Site Project Manager: Jody Fischer
– Chief Met./Operations Director: Dan Gilbert
Configuring TITAN parameters prior to the 2012 season. (Gilbert and Krauss, front to back.)
Shown here, the Operations Room contains, TITAN, CIDD, AirLink, VHF radio, radar log, etc.
Recent Improvements
• Radar upgrades in 2011 & 2014
• Dr. Krauss ASWMS Project Director in 2011
• Hailstop 5 added at Springbank in 2013
• Insurance industry CEU tours and lectures
• New Davis Weather Station 2013
• Updates to Suspension Criteria 2013
• New paint on the radome 2013
2011 Improvements - Radar • HiQ digital receiver
with Doppler
• New transmitter (modulator and power supply) now Pulse Systems solid state
• Latest TITAN version
• Ubuntu Operating System
2014 Upgrade Pedestal replacement New Receiver with Doppler New ARC Antenna Control System ARC GUI interface Latest TITAN and Ubuntu Linux
Seeding Concepts Illustration from Canadian Geographic, based
on WMO schematic, 1995
Targeting
• Potential hailers headed for or developing over urban areas are targeted.
• Simultaneous seeding at cloud top and at cloud base.
Propagation Vector
Cell Motion
Storm Motion
TARGET AREA
WMI Photograph by Mike Torris & Joel Zimmer
WMI Photograph by Mike Torris & Joel Zimmer
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CDC Strategy Description
-3 No Seed Clear skies, fair weather cumulus, or stratus (with no rain). No deep convection.
-2 No Seed Towering cumulus, altocumulus, alto-stratus, or nimbostratus producing rain for several hours or weak echoes (e.g. virga).
-1 No Seed Scattered convective rain showers but no threat of hail. No reports of lightning.
0 Patrol flights and potential seeding
Thunderstorms (at least one) but no hail. VIL < 20 kg/m2 within the project area or buffer zones on north, east, and south sides.
+1 Seed Thunderstorms with pea or shot sized hail (0.5 to 1.2 cm diameter). 20 kg/m2 < VIL < 30 kg/m2
+2 Seed Thunderstorms with grape sized hail (1.3 to 2.0 cm diameter). 30 kg/m2 < VIL < 70 kg/m2
+3 Seed Thunderstorms with walnut sized hail (2.1 to 3.2 cm diameter). 70 kg/m2 < VIL < 100 kg/m2
+4 Seed Thunderstorms with golf ball sized hail (3.3 to 5.2 cm diameter). VIL > 100 kg/m2
+5 Seed Thunderstorms with greater than golf ball sized hail (>5.2 cm diameter).
Daily Forecasts and CDC
Daily
Forecast
Sheet
Observed Days
No Hail Hail Totals Fo
reca
st D
ays
No Hail 47
[44%] 6
[6%] 53
[50%]
Hail 14
[13%]
40 [37%]
54 [50%]
Totals
61
[57%]
46
[43%] 107
F O R E C A S T I N G
POD, FAR, HSS, and CSI PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, FALSE ALARM RATIO, HEIDKE SKILL SCORE, AND CRITICAL SUCCESS INDEX
Past six seasons have all ranked in top 10 most active Three busiest seasons occurred in last five years AgI per storm higher since 2013 likely due to addition of fifth aircraft