Danica Spasova Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS)

National climate services including aspects of using global and regional climate information at

national level

Danica SpasovaRepublic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS)

Republic of SERBIA

WMO Workshop on Strategy for Implementation of CSISGeneva, Switzerland, 5-7 April 2011

Republic of Serbia

RHMSS Climate Observation and Monitoring

• Synoptic/Princ. Clim.St. • AWS

32

28

hourly observations

• Ordinary Climatological stations

97 3 times per day

• Precipitation stations 558 daily measurements

• Ordinary Agromet. stations 35

• Phenological stations 52

• Upper air observations 1

• Meteorological Radar • Hydrological stations for

surface water • Hydrological stations for

ground water

1

211

455

+ 1 in construction

Meteorological and Hydrological Observing System of the RHMSS consists of:Meteorological and Hydrological Observing System of the RHMSS consists of:

*Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) was established in 1947 as a special organization within the state administration and performs the tasks of monitoring, research, analysing and forecasting of weather, climate and water, international cooperation as well as other functions and duties of NMHS set by the Law.

Republic of Serbia

RHMSS Climate Monitoring related activities and products

-The analysis of climate elements and their anomalies in relation to multi-annual mean values (RHMSS Weekly, Monthly and Annual bulletin); Monthly temperature and precipitation and their anomalies are regularly submitted to DWD – ECSM (European Climate System Monitoring).- Update of climate maps- Trend analysis of observed climate change- Statistical analysis of extremes- Climate services for users These products are available on RHMSS web-site www.hidmet.gov.rs

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE 1961-1990 1971-2000

MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION1961-1990 1971-2000

RHMSS Climate Monitoring related activities and

products/Climate Indexes for Serbia (1950-2009)

Trend: TN10p

Trend: TXx

RHMSS Climate Monitoring Operational Activities –Drought, Forest Fire, Heat Waves …

As climate change begins to manifest in the form of increased frequency and intensity of hazards such as floods, storms, heat waves, drought, forest fire—the RHMSS has established the operational system for drought, forest fire, floods, heat waves and other meteorological and hydrological extremes monitoring to support national disaster management activities.

RHMSS Forest Fire IndexRHMSS DROUGHT MONITORING

Near normal

Minor drought

Moderate drought

Severe drought

Extreme drought

Exceptional drought

SPI - 2

RHMSS METEOALARM AND HYDROALARM AS A PART OF THE EU METEOROLARM AND EU EFAS

RHMSS meteoalarm: www.meteoalarm.rs Meteoalarm-alerting Europe for extreme weather /EUMETNET

The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) RHMSS hydroalarm: www.hidmet.gov.rs

RHMSS Infrastructure and Forecasting-access to and use of GPCs and RCCs products by RHMSS-

Short- to Medium-Range Weather

Seasonal ForecastsShort-Term Climate

Long-TermClimate

In performing a wide range of tasks within the Convention on the WMO, Agreement on cooperation with European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast-ECMWF, Agreement on Cooperation with the European Organization for Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites- EUMETSAT, and other multilateral and bilateral agreements, RHMSS in its forecasting operative work used the products of GPCs (ECMWF, DWD, Météo-France, ROSHYDROMET, NCEP).

RHMSS is the host of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre – SEEVCCC, and uses all the available products of this Center. SEEVCCC available technologies: ● NCEP NMM-B: Unified Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid (Zavisa Janjic, NCEP) ● SEEVCCC LRF System: [NCEP/Eta (Eta Belgrade University = EBU) + POM]

(Vladimir Djurdjevic, Borivoj Rajkovic, Belgrade University - SEEVCCC) ● DREAM: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (Slobodan Nickovic, WMO) ● HYPROM: Hydrology prediction model (Nickovic, WMO)

RHMSS Long Range ForecastAnalogy method:

Ensemble seasonal forecast:new

Recognizes in statistical sense earlier system that is similar to the existing one to be forecasted;• monthly forecast (on 1st and 15th in the month)

SEEVCCC LRF products available every month for 7 months ahead. Dynamical downscaling of ECMWF 41 ensemble forecast with RCM-SEEVCCC fully coupled atmospheric-ocean-land model.

Use of information from different sources – forecast in text form •7 months forecast (once a month)

Interpretation of GPC forecasts:

Operational available products are:• mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data 1961-1990) for one month and three months (season)• diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place)

CPT: Preparation for operational use

RHMSS CLIMATE WATCH EXPERIMENTAL ACTIVITIES– EARLY WARNING OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EXTREMES

P a l i ¢

S o m b o r

N o v i S a dZ r e w a n i n

K i k i n d a

B a n a t s k i K a r l o v a c

L o z n i c a

S r e m s k a M i t r o v i c a

V a q e v o

B e o g r a d

K r a g u j e v a c

S m e d e r e v s k a P a l a n k a

V e l i k o G r a d i ¡ t e

C r n i V r hN e g o t i n

Z l a t i b o r

S j e n i c a

P o ` e g aK r a q e v o

K o p a o n i k

K u r ¡ u m l i j a

K r u ¡ e v a c

› u p r i j a

N i ¡

L e s k o v a c

Z a j e ~ a r

D i m i t r o v g r a d

V r a w e

6

7

8

9

1 0

1 1

1 2

Example: Positive June 2010 temperature anomaly forecasted in March 2010 is used for initial climate watch advisory for heat wave – SEEVCCC LRF forecast start: March 1st 2010

Map of temperature anomaly for June 2010

Probabilistic diagram for monthly temperatureBelgrade (LRF, normal 1961/90, observations)

Observed heat wavefor June 2010

Simple BIAS correction applied on temperature: 0.5C decrease on every100m altitude above 200m.

RHMSS CLIMATE WATCH EXPERIMENTAL ACTIVITIES– EARLY WARNING OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AND EXTREMES/Cont.

Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010 – LRF forecast start: January 1st 2010

RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast

observed

New! Under development

RHMSS CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH TO SUPPORT ADAPTATION

The climate projections developed for the period 2001-2030 and 2070-2100 using RCM-SEEVCCC and IPCC/SRES A1B and A2 scenarios are used in national

climate change impacts studies

Climate projections performed with RCM – SEEVCCC: A1B scenario, 2070-2100: Temperature (left) and precipitation (right) changes over the territory of Serbia

Annual Temperature (0C): 2.4-2.8; Annual precipitation (%):-15 - 0

P A L I ]

S O M B O R

B E ^ E J

N O V I S A D

K I K I N D A

Z R E W A N I N

V R [ A C S . M I T R O V I C A

B E O G R A D

L O Z N I C A

V A Q E V O

V . G R A D I [ T E

S . P A L A N K A

K R A Q E V O

P O @ E G A

] U P R I J A

K R U [ E V A C

N E G O T I N

Z A J E ^ A R

N I [

L E S K O V A C

V R A W E

K O P A O N I K S J E N I C A

C R N I V R H

P E ]

P R I Z R E N

P R I [ T I N A

5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5

Is (%)1961-1990. г.

P A L I ]

S O M B O R

B E ^ E J

N O V I S A D

K I K I N D A

Z R E W A N I N

V R [ A C S . M I T R O V I C A

B E O G R A D

L O Z N I C A

V A Q E V O

V . G R A D I [ T E

S . P A L A N K A

K R A Q E V O

P O @ E G A

] U P R I J A

K R U [ E V A C

N E G O T I N

Z A J E ^ A R

N I [

L E S K O V A C

V R A W E

K O P A O N I K S J E N I C A

C R N I V R H

P E ]

P R I Z R E N

P R I [ T I N A

P A L I ]

S O M B O R

B E ^ E J

N O V I S A D

K I K I N D A

Z R E W A N I N

V R [ A C S . M I T R O V I C A

B E O G R A D

L O Z N I C A

V A Q E V O

V . G R A D I [ T E

S . P A L A N K A

K R A Q E V O

P O @ E G A

] U P R I J A

K R U [ E V A C

N E G O T I N

Z A J E ^ A R

N I [

L E S K O V A C

V R A W E

K O P A O N I K S J E N I C A

C R N I V R H

P E ]

P R I Z R E N

P R I [ T I N A

Thorntwaite-drought index

(% PET)

Thorntwaite-drought index

(% PET) for 2оC global warming

RHMSS climate change research to support adaptation in agriculture sector

1961-1990

Annual drought index projections for 2oC global worming

RHMSS climate change research to support adaptation inagriculture sector

1. Subotica-Horgos2. Srem3. Banat

8. Pocerac4. Sumadija-G.Morava

5. W.Morava6. Timok7. Nisava-S.Morava

9. Kosovo

observed values are compared with model result of the closest model point

Example: vineyard regions in Serbia

Climate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.) Shifts on ~1000m altitude

RHMSS climate extremes risk assessment to support DRR activities – preliminary results –

RHMSS SUPPORTING THE WMO SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM (SEECOF)

Participants of the WMO/SEECOF 4, held in Belgrade, Serbia, from 22-26 November 2010

RHMSS actively participate in and offered support to the WMO RCOF process in Southeastern Europe

(SEECOF).

RCOF/SEECOF is a mechanism which stimulates the development of climate capacity at the NMHSs and facilitates

the liaison with the end-users, helping to generate decisions and activities which

could mitigate the adverse impacts of climate variability and change and help

communities to build appropriate adaptation strategies.

Southeastern Europe Climate Outlook Forum as an integral part of the RCOFs process is important sub-regional mechanism for providing advanced information on the climate for the next season and beyond and building capabilities of NMHSs in using, interpreting and downscaling seasonal prediction products into regional and national products.In cooperation with WMO, RHMSS provided support for SEECOF 3rd session as an online Forum, and for organization of the SEECOF 4, in 2010. SEECOF 5 under preparation.

End users at national level

1. Improvement of Long Range Forecasting introducing the model climatology2. Introducing and adapting climate watch – early warning system to end users (sector of

agriculture, energy, water management,..)3. Assessment and mapping of climate hazard, vulnerability, and risk4. To develop ensemble monthly forecast, as dynamical downscaling of ECMWF ensemble

monthly forecast on higher resolution in order to have more precise tool for early warning system as expected event approaches in time (depend on available CPU time)

5. Improve verification of LRF system6. Enhancing regional cooperation within WMO Programmes and RA VI RCC Network,

SEEVCCC, DMCSEE, WMO/UNDP DRR SEE Regional Project, SEE Action plan for adaptation and other initiatives to support data exchange, climate research, training and capacity building

7. Continuing participation in WMO, WCRP, EU projects and building partnerships8. Active support and participation in follow-up WMO/GFCS activities.

Climate data, monitoring products, LRF and Climate watch advisory are sent to ministries and other institutions from the following sector: disaster risk management, energy, environment, agriculture, forestry, health, insurance, district heating companies, road authorities, media, etc.

Monthly and annual bulletins are available on web-site of RHMSS www.hidmet.gov.rs

Future plans

THANK YOU!