Dan Reuter, Atlanta Regional Commission

PLAN 2040Regional Assessment Findings

NHC and NARJune 14, 2010

ARC Roles and Statutory Authority

• Regional Commission under Georgia Planning Act and MAPDC Laws

• Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) under Federal Transportation Law

• Metro North Georgia Water Planning District (MNGWPD)

• 7 County Workforce Board• Area Agency on Aging (AAA)

What is PLAN 2040?

• Metro Atlanta’s plan to accommodate economic and population growth over the next 30 years.

• Federally required long-range Regional Transportation Plan

• State required long-term Regional Agenda and short-term Regional Work Program

Demographics - Headlines

• Unprecedented growth in Atlanta region this past decade

• Dynamic shifts in the age, race and ethnic composition of the region

• Creates challenges for all sectors (public, private and civic)

Metro Atlanta vs. other Boomtowns

Age Pyramid - 2040

Generation X : Age 73 to 86

Generation Y: Age 72-58

Generation Z: Age 57 to 40

Generation AB: Age 10 to 24

Generation AA: Age 25 to 39

Generation AC: Age 0 to 9

PLAN 2040 anticipates dynamic shifts in race/ethnicity

Jobs and Housing - Headlines

• Significant job contraction in the region

• Income not keeping up with price increases

• Long-term employment growth forecasted

• Foreclosure crisis continues

Jobs Peak: Nov 2007 from then to August 2009 – 233,819 JOBS

Significant period of job contraction

Average wages not keeping up

Building permit slowdown…

-90.0% -80.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0%

Atlanta

Austin

Boston

Charlotte

Chicago

Dallas

Houston

Las Vegas

Los Angeles

Miami

New York

Orlando

Philadelphia

Phoenix

Washington DC

Percent Change 2008 – 2009 (through June)

Foreclosures remain a major issue throughout region

2009 Total Foreclosure Filings

2009 Total Housing Units

% of County Units with 2009 Foreclosure Filing

Cherokee 4,569 80,742 5.66%

Clayton 9,736 107,461 9.06%

Cobb 12,890 280,476 4.60%

DeKalb 17,768 302,644 5.87%

Douglas 4,067 50,959 7.98%

Fayette 1,853 39,728 4.66%

Fulton 24,621 439,923 5.60%

Gwinnett 23,205 285,625 8.12%

Henry 6,894 73,816 9.34%

Rockdale 2,762 32,400 8.52%108,365 1,693,774 6.40%

Transportation- Headlines

• Demand for travel expected to increase greatly

• Much of the region has limited travel options

• Region’s limited transit options are in jeopardy

• Our ability to fund new projects is tied to revenue streams that are decreasing, while demand increases

Very few households have high degree of job-access

2010 2040

Blue = Largest concentrations of households with a degree of access to jobs

Green = Limited employment options, workers are ‘exported’ to other areas

Transportation costs greatest in suburbs.

Urban expansion without urban services

Falling behind our peers/competitors on transit

Charlotte (2007) LYNX Blue Line 9.6 miles, $462 million

Dallas Expansion (2009-2013)43 miles, $2.9 billion

Denver (2007) 122 miles, $4.7 billion

Transit Oriented Development (TOD) is Key.

Brookings Institute 2007 report 29 largest metro areas in the U.S. in terms of the number of transit enabled, walkable urban locations.

The report ranked Atlanta 14th with a total of four: Midtown, Atlantic Station, Decatur and Buckhead. Washington, D.C. which was ranked #1 and has twenty (20) locations.

MARTA rail station areas must become walkable, urban centers.

ARC, Livable Communities Coalition and MARTA have begun seeking greater support for local governments.

• Check out the other resource material on the PLAN 2040 website at www.atlantaregional.com/plan2040.

• If you have a question, email or call us at [email protected] or 404.463.3272.

Want more information?

Or go to the PLAN 2040 online public meeting…..

PLAN 2040Regional Assessment Findings

NHC and NARJune 14, 2010