DAIRY MARKET NEWS - Amazon S3 · 2018-03-23 · DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 --9, 2018 VOLUME 85, REPORT 10 NORTHEAST Butter production is tapering off for some processors, but others

DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEEK OF MARCH 5 - 9, 2018

VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

DAIRY MARKET NEWS AT A GLANCE **UPDATED**

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Product Highlights/CME/DMN at a Glance 1

Weekly CME Activity/Butter Markets/NDPSR 2

Cheese Markets 3

Fluid Milk and Cream 4

Nonfat Dry Milk/Dry Buttermilk/Dry Whole Milk 5

Dry Whey/WPC 34%/Lactose/Casein 6

U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter/Class Milk Prices 7

Organic Dairy Market News 8

March Supply and Demand Estimates 9

Dairy Graphs G1

Dairy Market News Retail Report

Dairy Market News Contacts

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (3/9)

BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.2050. The weekly average for

Grade AA is $2.2175(+.0245).

CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4975 and 40# blocks at $1.5700.

The weekly average for barrels is $1.5090 (+.0375) and blocks,

$1.5830 (+.0480).

NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $.6850. The weekly

average for Grade A is $.6555 (-.0165).

NOTICE TO THE INDUSTRY: Beginning on March 12, 2018,

Dairy Market News will include CME Group daily cash trading results

for Extra Grade dry whey. On that date, more information will also be

available at https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/md_da500.txt

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Butter production is ongoing as

available cream is making its way into churns. However, microfixing

has increased as cream prices have been driven up by Class II and

Class III manufacturing needs. Retail butter orders for both salted and

unsalted varieties are seasonally strong. Interest in print butter is

substantial, but bulk butter demand is somewhat lackluster. Bulk butter

prices range from 5 under to 7 cents over the market, based on the

CME Group with various time periods and averages used. The market

tone is somewhat bullish. Some contacts attribute the current uptrend

in trades and prices to the CME new crop butter requirement. Friday’s

CME Group cash trading saw Grade AA butter close at $2.2050, up

$.0050 from last Friday.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Winter storms are causing a

number of issues in the industry with Northeastern contacts reporting

power outages and delayed shipments of farm milk into production

plants, both within the region and into the Midwest. Milk flowing into

cheese vats is mixed nationwide. Reported spot milk prices ranged

from $2.00 to $3.00 under with situational offers as low as $5 under

Class. Despite bad weather, cheese production is active and strong

across the nation, especially for cheddar and hard Italian. Demand is

variable around the country. Midwestern mozzarella and provolone

producers report concerns that Eastern orders will be impacted by the

storm. Cheese inventories are generally in balance with demand.

However, in the West, contacts report supplies to be more substantial

compared to sales. The cheese market tone is unsettled. Friday on the

CME, barrels closed at $1.4975, up $.0225 from last Friday. Blocks

closed at $1.5700, up $.0100 from last Friday.

FLUID MILK: Milk production across the United States is

mostly steady to increasing. Supplies seem to be largely available to

meet end-users' needs. In the East, weather conditions disrupted the

distribution of milk. Organic and conventional dairies in the Midwest,

the East, and some parts of the West are battling to find new

processors that will take their milk as their current contracts will expire

soon. Class I sales remain balanced in most of the regions, except in

the Southeast where it is stable to down. Condensed skim demand is

ample in the East and the West. Although cream supplies are

sufficient, availability is starting to tighten in the East and the

Midwest. Cream multiples for all usages range 1.14-1.27 in the East,

1.20-1.25 in the Midwest, and 1.00-1.23 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM)

prices are steady to lower. The demand is generally sluggish and some

buyers/end users are postponing Q2 negotiations. The market tone is

weaker. High heat NDM prices are steady to shifted down, although

some buying interest is on the increase. Dry buttermilk prices are

steady to slightly lower. Buyer demand is fair, but in some areas,

supplies are hard to come by. The market undertone is fairly

questionable at this point, as nonfat dry milk prices are moving down.

Dry whole milk prices are unchanged on light trading. Supplies are

limited in the spot market, but adequate for contractual needs. Dry

whey prices are steady to tilted lower in some price ranges.

-CONTINUED ON PAGE 1A-

CME GROUP CASH TRADING

CHEESE: carload = 40,000 lbs., BUTTER: carlot = 40,000-43,000 lbs. *Sum of daily changes. # Weekly averages are simple averages of the daily closing prices for the calendar week.

Computed by Dairy Market News for international purposes. This data is available on the Internet at WWW.AMS.USDA.GOV/MARKET-NEWS/DAIRY

COMMODITY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY :: WEEKLY :: WEEKLY MAR 05 MAR 06 MAR 07 MAR 08 MAR 09 :: CHANGE* :: AVERAGE# CHEESE BARRELS $1.5125 $1.5150 $1.5100 $1.5100 $1.4975 :: :: $1.5090 (+.0375) (+.0025) (-.0050) (N.C.) (-.0125) :: (+.0225) :: (+.0375) 40# BLOCKS $1.6025 $1.6025 $1.5600 $1.5800 $1.5700 :: :: $1.5830 (+.0425) (N.C.) (-.0425) (+.0200) (-.0100) :: (+.0100) :: (+.0480) NONFAT DRY MILK GRADE A $.6500 $.6475 $.6475 $.6475 $.6850 :: :: $.6555 (-.0125) (-.0025) (N.C.) (N.C.) (+.0375) :: (+.0225) :: (-.0165) BUTTER GRADE AA $2.2025 $2.2325 $2.2300 $2.2175 $2.2050 :: :: $2.2175 (+.0025) (+.0300) (-.0025) (-.0125) (-.0125) :: (+.0050) :: (+.0245)

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/md_da500.txt

-CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1-

demand is generally steady. The overall dry whey market tone is steady

to shaky. Whey protein concentrate WPC34% prices are mostly

unchanged. Demand for specific name brands is strong. However, the

demand for interchangeable WPC34% is weak. Lactose prices are

steady to slightly increased at the bottom of each price series. The

demand is mixed and the market tone seems to be stable. Rennet and

acid casein prices have firmed. Many buyers are currently more

motivated to purchase supplies.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS (DMN): The churning

within the organic dairy sector continues. A smaller Midwest organic

coop has been told by a processor that less organic milk will be needed

moving forward. This has resulted in some coop member organic dairy

producers losing their milk contracts. In other cases, nonmembers

selling organic milk to processing coops have been told their milk will

no longer have a home. That coop has just announced the organic milk

pay price for the coming year will be $22.50, a disappointingly low

price for most producers.

Countrywide, organic retail survey ads declined 2 percent. For now,

the percentage changes in total organic ads by commodity compared to

the previous survey period show organic milk at 46 percent, down 5

percent; organic yogurt at 41 percent, up 8 percent; and organic cottage

cheese at 2 percent, up 1 percent. In addition, organic cream cheese and

organic flavored milk ads were included in retail store ads this period,

but organic butter, organic ice cream, and organic sour cream were not

included in store promotions this period. Commodity specific changes

in ad numbers show both organic cheese and yogurt ads increased, 183

and 23 percent respectively, but organic milk declined 11 percent. This

week, the retail milk price spread between organic and conventional

half gallon milk conveys an organic premium of 96 cents.

NATIONAL RETAIL REPORT (DMN): Total conventional

dairy advertisements slightly increased by 1 percent this week, but total

organic dairy advertisements decreased by 2 percent. Conventional

shredded cheese in 8 oz packages was the top advertised dairy item for

the week, followed by ice cream in 48-64 ounce containers. Half gallon

milk was the top advertised organic dairy item. Advertisement numbers

for conventional milk in half gallon containers increased by 485

percent, the largest percentage increase for a conventional dairy item

this week.

The national weighted average advertised conventional milk price

for half gallons, $2.52, increased 73 cents from a week ago. Milk

gallons averaged $3.02, up 15 cents. Organic half gallon prices

averaged $3.48, down 58 cents from one week ago. The resulting

organic-conventional half gallon price spread is $0.96.

Total conventional cheese advertisements increased 11 percent while

organic cheese advertisements rose 183 percent compared to last week.

The weighted average price of conventional 8 ounce block cheese was

$2.19. The weighted average price of conventional 8 ounce shred

cheese was $2.16, compared to $2.99 for organic 8 ounce shreds, an

organic premium of 83 cents.

The U.S. average conventional one pound butter price was $3.95 this

period, up 39 cents from a week ago. The weighted average advertised

price for organic yogurt in 4-6 ounce containers is $1.17, compared to

53 cents for conventional, an organic premium of 64 cents.

MARCH MILK SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES

(WAOB): The milk production forecast for 2018 is raised from last

month on more rapid growth in milk per cow in the first half of the year.

The 2018 imports on a fat and skim-solids basis are reduced on slower

sales of a number of processed dairy products. Exports on fat basis are

raised on increased cheese sales and exports on a skim-solids basis are

raised on stronger sales of both cheese and whey products. The supply

and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions to 2016 and 2017 milk

production and 2017 storage data. Annual product price forecasts for

cheese and butter are raised from the previous month as recent prices

have increased. However, continued large supplies of nonfat dry milk

(NDM) are expected to pressure NDM prices, and the forecast is

reduced. No change is made to the annual whey price forecast. The

Class III price is raised on the cheese price projection, while the Class

IV price is down, as the lower NDM price more than offsets a higher

butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast at $15.75 to $16.35

per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint.

NOTICE TO THE INDUSTRY - The Dairy Market News portal is

moving to a new platform - My Market News, https://

mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/. This is part of USDA's launch of

MARS, Market Analysis and Reporting Services, a state-of-the-art

electronic data platform. For a short time, Dairy Market News reports

will continue to appear on the existing portal, https://

www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home, and existing bookmarks will

work. Dairy Market News suggests readers also create new bookmarks

for favorite reports on the My Market News website to maintain easy

access to reports.

WEEK OF MARCH 5 - 9, 2018 DAIRY MARKET NEWS VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

DAIRY MARKET NEWS AT A GLANCE

-1A-

https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 - 9, 2018 VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

NORTHEAST

Butter production is tapering off for some processors, but others are

maintaining active production rates in order to replenish inventories.

While cream into churns is available, Class II production is pulling

stronger on available cream, prompting higher multiples. Some

market participants shared that they are uncertain of being able to

rebuild their stocks after the holiday demand due to tightening

cream supplies. Retail butter orders for both salted and unsalted

varieties are seasonally strong. Inventories are tight to sufficient. In

the international market, domestic butter prices are lower and still

very competitive. The market tone is trending higher. Sales of bulk butter in domestic markets are 4 to 7 cents over the market of the

CME Group, with various time periods and averages used.

Tuesday’s CME Group trading saw the daily cash butter price settle

at $2.2325, up $0.0500 from last Tuesday. The CME Group monthly

average price for Grade AA butter during February 2018 was

$2.1211, compared to $2.1534 a year ago. According to the DMN

National Retail Report-Dairy, March 2-8, 2018, the Northeast

weighted average retail price for 1-pound butter was $3.73, 17 cents

higher than the national price, but down 16 cents from last week’s

regional price. Retail butter markets reported prices ranging $2.00-

$4.69 in the Northeast. DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, U.S. butter production

for January 2018 totals 185.5 million pounds, up 4.3 percent from

last year and up 9.0 percent from December 2017. January 2018

butter production in the Atlantic region totaled 23.0 million pounds,

up 4.1 percent from last year and up 25.5 percent from December

2017.

CENTRAL **Updated**

Butter markets are making their mark on the entire dairy industry,

as widespread analyses and reports are promulgating the vitality of

butter, particularly in relation to other dawdling dairy

commodities. Central region butter contacts are pointing to the

CME new crop butter requirement as a spur in the current uptrend

in trades and prices. Some Central region analysts have suggested

that butter markets will cool shortly. Regardless, a number of

contacts expect butter to maintain fairly steady price points

between $2.00 and $2.25, pointing to bullish futures and increasing

demand. Bulk butter is available for Central end users, particularly

from the Western region. Micro-fixing has increased as cream

prices have been driven up by Class II and Class III manufacturing

needs. Reported cream prices into butter churns range from 1.14 to

1.22. Next week is expected to be the last week of firming cream

prices ahead of spring demand upticks. Contacts are questioning

how far cream prices will decrease, if at all, in upcoming weeks.

DMN National Retail Report-Dairy for March 2-8 noted the

national weighted average advertised price for a 1 pound package

of butter is $3.56, $.20 below one week ago, but $.52 above one

year ago. Bulk butter prices ranged from flat market to 7 cents over

the CME average.

CONTINUED ON PAGE 2A

NATIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS SALES REPORT

WEEK ENDING

March 3, 2018

BUTTER CHEESE 40# BLOCKS

CHEESE BARRELS

38% MOISTURE DRY WHEY NDM

2.1373 6,490,650

1.5513 11,968,798

1.4574 12,364,849

0.2589 5,655,252

0.7012 16,942,074

Further data and revisions may be found on the internet at: http://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr

BUTTER MARKETS

-2-

MONDAY, MARCH 5, 2018 CHEESE -- SALES: 2 CARS BARRELS: 1 @ $1.4900, 1 @ $1.5125; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.6025; LAST BID UNFILLED: 2 CARS 40# BLOCKS: 1 @ $1.5275, 1 @ $1.5125; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE NONFAT DRY MILK -- SALES: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $0.6500; LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6150, 1 @ $0.6450, 1 @ $0.6500; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 6 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6575, 1 @ $0.7075, 2 @ $0.7175, 1 @ $0.6750, 1 @ $0.6650 BUTTER -- SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $2.2025; LAST BID UNFILLED: 5 CARS GRADE AA: 2 @ $2.1650, 1 @ $2.1600, 1 @ $2.1925, 1 @ $2.1650; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 4 CARS GRADE AA: 2 @ $2.2200, 1 @ $2.2225, 1 @ $2.2200 TUESDAY, MARCH 6, 2018 CHEESE -- SALES: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5150; LAST BID UNFILLED: 2 CARS BARRELS: 1 @ $1.4500, 1 @ $1.5150; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5200; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.6025 NONFAT DRY MILK -- SALES: 5 CARS GRADE A: 4 @ $0.6450, 1 @ $0.6475; LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $0.6400; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 7 CARS GRADE A: 4 @ $0.7150, 1 @ $0.7125, 1 @ $0.7050, 1 @ $0.6950 BUTTER -- SALES: 16 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.2050, 1 @ $2.2025, 2 @ $2.2000, 1 @ $2.2100, 1 @ $2.2250, 1 @ $2.2225, 2 @ $2.2275, 1 @ $2.2300, 1 @ $2.2250, 2 @ $2.2300, 1 @ $2.2350, 1 @ $2.2325, 1 @ $2.2300; LAST BID UNFILLED: 11 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.2250, 1 @ $2.2225, 1 @ $2.1925, 1 @ $2.1825, 1 @ $2.2025, 1 @ $2.2000, 1 @ $2.2100, 1 @ $2.2200, 1 @ $2.2275, 1 @ $2.2100, 1 @ $2.2325; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 5 CARS GRADE AA: 3 @ $2.2400, 1 @ $2.2350, 1 @ $2.2500 WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7, 2018 CHEESE -- SALES: 16 CARS BARRELS: 13 @ $1.5150, 1 @ $1.5125, 2 @ $1.5100; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5600; LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.4250; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 4 CARS BARRELS: 1 @ $1.5250, 1 @ $1.5175, 1 @ $1.5125, 1 @ $1.5100; 2 CARS 40# BLOCKS: 1 @ $1.6500, 1 @ $1.6200 NONFAT DRY MILK -- SALES: NONE; LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6200, 1 @ $0.6300, 1 @ $0.6350; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 7 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.7075, 1 @ $0.7125, 1 @ $0.6975, 3 @ $0.7175, 1 @ $0.6800 BUTTER -- SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $2.2350; LAST BID UNFILLED: 2 CARS GRADE AA @ $2.1800; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 4 CARS GRADE AA: 2 @ $2.2400, 2 @ $2.2300 THURSDAY, MARCH 8, 2018 CHEESE -- SALES: 6 CARS 40# BLOCKS: 2 @ $1.5500, 1 @ $1.5450, 1 @ $1.5500, 1 @ $1.5600, 1 @ $1.5800; LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.4400; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5525; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5100; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5800 NONFAT DRY MILK -- SALES: NONE; LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6350, 2 @ $0.6400; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 6 CARS GRADE A: 3 @ $0.7175, 1 @ $0.7125, 1 @ $0.7075, 1 @ $0.6775 BUTTER -- SALES: NONE; LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $2.2000; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 12 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.2175, 1 @ $2.2350, 3 @ $2.2200, 5 @ $2.2375, 1 @ $2.2275, 1 @ $2.2250 FRIDAY, MARCH 9, 2018 CHEESE -- SALES: 6 CARS BARRELS: 1 @ $1.5100, 1 @ $1.5050, 1 @ $1.5025, 1 @ $1.5000, 2 @ $1.4975; LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.4100; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 2 CARS BARRELS: 1 @ $1.5150, 1 @ $1.5100; 1 CAR 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5700 NONFAT DRY MILK -- SALES: 4 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6750, 1 @ $0.6675, 1 @ $0.6725, 1 @ $0.6800; LAST BID UNFILLED: 6 CARS GRADE A: 1 @ $0.6400, 1 @ $0.6300, 1 @ $0.6550, 1 @ $0.6650, 1 @ $0.6775, 1 @ $0.6850; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 12 CARS GRADE A: 3 @ $0.7175, 1 @ $0.7125, 1 @ $0.7075, 1 @ $0.7025, 5 @ $0.7000, 1 @ $0.6975 BUTTER -- SALES: 5 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.2000, 1 @ $2.1975, 3 @ $2.2050; LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.1925, 1 @ $2.2000, 1 @ $2.1700; LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 6 CARS GRADE AA: 1 @ $2.2500, 1 @ $2.2100, 1 @ $2.2200, 2 @ $2.2100, 1 @ $2.2050

http://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr


CONTINUED FROM PAGE 2

Prices for: Central U.S., All First Sales, F.O.B., Grade AA,

Conventional, and Edible Butter

Bulk Basis Pricing - 80% Butterfat $/LB: 0.0000 - +0.0700

Secondary Sourced Information:

The CME Group monthly average price for Grade AA butter during

February was $2.1211, down from January’s $2.1587 and down

from $2.1534 a year ago. In CME Group trading Wednesday, Grade

AA butter closed at $2.2300, up $.0525 from last Wednesday.

The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. butter production

during January 2018 in the Central region totaled 75.7 million

pounds, 0.4 percent higher than one year ago. Total U.S. butter

production during January 2018 was 185.5 million pounds, 4.3

percent higher than last year.

WEST

Western butter makers report cream is ample and butter production is

active. Print butter demand is strong, as would be expected ahead of

the spring holidays. However, such a cursory explanation does not

fully elucidate the current butter market. Some processors suggest bulk butter demand is somewhat lackluster for this time of year. Also,

some buyers are cautious, feeling that there will be enough butter

available when the need arises, and possibly at more favorable prices.

End users are working hard to manage their stocks closely, trying to

get the butter needed for the short term into the warehouse, but being

careful about longer term butter needs. Industry contacts suggest

there are good volumes of bulk butter on hand, while print butter

stocks are lower due to seasonal demand. Bulk butter pricing in the

West this week is 5 cents below to 6.5 cents above the market, based

on the CME Group with various periods and averages used. The

DMN National Retail Report–Dairy for the week of March 2-8 found that the U.S. weighted average advertised price of 1 pound butter is

$3.56 down $.20 from last week. The U.S. weighted average price

was $3.04 one year ago. The weighted average price in the Southwest

is $3.66, with a price range of $1.99-$4.99. The weighted average

price in the Northwest is $3.99. According to the NASS Dairy

Products report, U.S. butter production during January 2018, 185.5

million pounds, was 4.3 percent higher than January 2017, and 9.0

percent higher than December 2017. In the West, total January butter

production was 86.8 million pounds, 8.0 percent higher than January

2017 and 6.4 percent more than December 2017. California January

production was 53.9 million pounds, 4.5 percent higher than last year, and 7.1 percent higher than last month. The CME Group February

2018 monthly average price for AA butter, $2.1211, is down from the

January monthly average of $2.1587. One year ago the CME Group

monthly average was $2.1534.The Grade AA butter price at the CME

Group on Wednesday closed at $2.2300, up $.0525 from a week ago.

2018 U.S. Butter and Milkfat Exports (USDA-FAS)

2018 Exports % Change From

(Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago

TOTAL, JANUARY 5.1 + 25

1 Canada 1.8 - 16

2 Mexico 1.0 + 28

3 Saudi Arabia 0.5 + 27

4 Dominican Republic 0.3 +1550

5 Morocco 0.3 + 435

2018 U.S. Butter and Milkfat Imports (USDA-FAS)

(Imports for Consumption)

2018 Imports % Change From


January Imports

Total Butter, Fats, Milk (H.S. Code 0405) 6.0 + 8

Butter

Quota (H.S. Code 405101000) 0.9 + 96

Over Quota (H.S. Code 405102000) 3.4 - 4

AMF

Quota (H.S. Code 405901020) 0.4 - 43

Over Quota (H.S. Code 405902020) 1.1 +140

Other Milk Fat 0.2 - 54



TOTAL, JANUARY 6.0 + 8

1 Ireland 3.5 + 50

2 Mexico 1.1 + 48

3 New Zealand 0.6 - 21

4 France 0.4 + 58

5 India 0.2 +107

-2A-


CHEESE MARKETS

-3-

NORTHEAST Milk volumes clearing to Northeastern cheese vats are mixed. There have been winter storms causing power outages and disruptions in milk haulers’ schedules. Despite the weather conditions, cheddar cheese production is strong and inventories are capable for current demand. Groceries are gearing up for the holiday by advertising cheese 8-32 ounce packages at discounts. This week, cheese 40-pound block and barrel spot sales are steady to lower. The wholesale price for ched-dar and Muenster increased $0.0050. The process cheese price shifted lower $0.0075. The Grade A Swiss price declined $0.1600 following the release of the February 2018 Announcement of Class and Compo-nent Prices. Additionally, the Class III skim milk price for February 2018 saw a 24 cents decline. The CME Group February 2018 monthly average price for barrels was $1.4096, compared to $1.6230 a year ago; blocks’ average price was $1.5157, compared to $1.6199 a year ago. The DMN Northeast February 2018 monthly average price for cheddar blocks is $2.1029, compared to $2.2547 one year ago. Pro-cessed 5# sliced average price is $1.7517, compared to $1.9757 one year ago. At Tuesday’s CME Group trading, daily cash prices saw barrels close at $1.5150, up $0.0450, and blocks closed at $1.6025, an increase of $0.0725 from last Tuesday. National Retail Report-Dairy, for March 2-8, 2018, noted the U.S. weighted average advertised price for 8 ounce cheese block was $2.27, up 5 cents from the previous week and up 12 cents from last year. The U.S. weighted average advertised price of 8 ounce cheese shreds was $2.20, a decrease of 1 cent from last week and from a year ago. Northeast region’s weighted average advertised price for 8 ounce cheese blocks was $2.24, 3 cents below the U.S. average, with a regional price range of $1.29-$3.00. The aver-age price for 8 oz. cheese shreds was $2.20, the same price as the na-tional average, with prices ranging $1.29-$3.00. In the Southeast re-gion, the average price for 8 oz. cheese blocks was $2.35, 8 cents above the average U.S. price, with a regional price range of $1.67-$3.00. The average price for 8 oz. shreds was $2.17, 3 cents below the U.S. average, with prices ranging $1.67-$2.50. DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, U.S. total cheese produc-tion in January 2018 was 1.08 billion pounds, 3.4 percent higher than a year ago, but 1.0 percent lower than last month. In the Atlantic region, total cheese production was 137.3 million pounds, 2.8 percent higher than a year ago, but 1.3 percent lower than the previous month. Total cheese production and percentage change, from last year for selected Eastern states are, Pennsylvania 37.0 million pounds, +3.3 percent; Vermont 12.3 million pounds, +0.2 percent, and New Jersey 4.9 mil-lion pounds, +20.9 percent.

WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED, DOLLARS PER POUND (1000 - 5000 POUNDS MIXED LOTS)

Cheddar 40# Block : 1.9900-2.2750 Process 5# Sliced : 1.6075-2.0875 Muenster : 1.9750-2.3250 Grade A Swiss Cuts 10 - 14# : 3.1625-3.4850

MIDWEST Spot milk into Midwestern cheese plants is wholly discounted. Report-ed milk loads ranged from $2 to $3 under, although there were reports of situational offers as low as $5 under Class. Hauling woes, whether systemic or weather related, continue to plague a number of cheese producers in the region and veritably across the nation. Milk shipments were delayed early in the week, while mozzarella and provolone pro-ducers, currently reporting steady demand, are concerned about multi-ple winter storms affecting orders made by Eastern region customers. Hard Italian orders are trending up, while barrel producers report de-mand as middling. The cheese markets are exhibiting bullish traits. Nevertheless, cheese contacts have seen positive, short term signs in the recent past, only to be beguiled by the somewhat delusive cheese markets. The DMN National Retail Report-Dairy shows that March 2-8 Midwest ads for 8 ounce shred cheese have a weighted average ad-vertised price of $2.09, 11 cents below the national average. Midwest

prices range from $1.28-$2.50. One year ago, the national price was $2.21. For 8 ounce blocks, the Midwest average price is $2.02, 25 cents below the national average price. Midwest ads are priced from $1.28-$2.50. Last year, the national price was $2.15. The CME Group Febru-ary 2018 monthly average price for barrels, $1.4096, is up from the January average of $1.3345, but down from the monthly average of a year ago, $1.6230. Blocks’ February average price, $1.5157, is up from the $1.4938 January monthly average, but down from $1.6199 one year ago. The DMN National Retail Report-Dairy shows that March 2-8 Midwest ads for 8 ounce shred cheese have a weighted average adver-tised price of $2.09, 11 cents below the national average. Midwest pric-es range from $1.28-$2.50. One year ago, the national price was $2.21. For 8 ounce blocks, the Midwest average price is $2.02, 25 cents below the national average price. Midwest ads are priced from $1.28-$2.50. Last year, the national price was $2.15. Midwestern wholesale prices are down $.1600 for Swiss cuts, down $.0075 for process, but up $.0050 for all other types. In CME trading Wednesday, barrels closed at $1.5100, up $.0400 from last Wednesday, and blocks closed at $1.5600, up $.0300. Dairy Products (NASS) reports total U.S. cheese production, for January 2018, was 1.081 billion pounds, 1.0 percent below December 2017. Central total cheese production for January 2018 was 489.5 million pounds, 1.7 percent lower than December. For total cheese and various types of cheese, January 2018 U.S. and Cen-tral cheese production percentage changes compared to January 2017 were as follows: Jan Production 2018 vs 2017 U.S. Central Total + 3.4% + 4.2% American + 2.7% + 3.1% Cheddar + 0.3% + 2.7% Total Italian + 3.4% + 4.5% Mozzarella + 3.1% + 5.0%

WISCONSIN WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED, DOLLARS PER POUND (1000 - 5000 POUNDS MIXED LOTS)

Process American 5# Loaf : 1.5625-1.9225 Brick And/Or Muenster 5# : 1.8975-2.3225 Cheddar 40# Block : 1.6250-2.0200 Monterey Jack 10# : 1.8725-2.0775 Blue 5# : 2.1650-3.1525 Mozzarella 5 - 6# (Low Moisture, Part Skim) : 1.6975-2.6375 Grade A Swiss Cuts 6 - 9# : 2.6800-2.7975

WEST Western cheese production is active as more milk is going to the vats. According to some contacts, hard Italian cheese output increased a little more this week. However, its production is expected to stabilize in a few days. The cheese market undertone seems unsettled. Although some reports suggest solid domestic demand and lively cheese export opportunities, supplies are still more substantial compared to sales. Intense competition with the European Union in the international mar-ket is also not helping the USA. Sellers are looking for possible waysto clear cheese out of storages. With most processing plants currently working at full capacity, manufacturers are worried about how they will manage milk supplies and cheese inventories during the spring flush. The DMN National Retail Report-Dairy for the week of March 2 - 8 shows the U.S. weighted average advertised retail price for an 8 ounce pack of natural shredded cheese is $2.20, down $.01 from last week. Packs average $2.65 in the Southwest and $2.20 in the North-west. One year ago, the national price was $2.21. For 8 ounce blocks, the U.S. price is $2.27, up $.05 from last week. Blocks average $2.84 in the Southwest and $2.06 in the Northwest. One year ago, the nation-al price was $2.15. In the West, wholesale prices were down $.0075 for process, but up $.0050 for cheddar block, cuts and Monterey Jack. Swiss cut wholesale prices are down $.1600 from last week.

CONTINUED ON PAGE 3A


CHEESE MARKETS

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 3

WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: DELIVERED, DOLLARS PER POUND Process 5# Loaf : 1.5500-1.8075 Cheddar 40# Block : 1.6575-2.1025 Cheddar 10# Cuts : 1.8375-2.0575 Monterey Jack 10# : 1.8475-2.0075 Grade A Swiss Cuts 6 - 9# : 2.7400-3.1700 The CME Group February 2018 monthly average price for barrels, $1.4096, is up from the January 2018 monthly average of $1.3345, but down from the monthly average of a year ago, $1.6230. Blocks’ Febru-ary average price, $1.5157, is up from the $1.4938 January monthly average, but down from $1.6199 one year ago. In CME Group trading Wednesday, barrels closed at $1.5100, up $.0400 from a week ago and blocks closed at $1.5600, up $.0300. Dairy Products (NASS) reports January 2018 U.S. total cheese production, 1.08 billion pounds, is 1.0 percent below December 2017, but 3.4 percent above January 2017. In the West, total cheese production for January 2018 was 454.05 million pounds, 0.2 percent less than last month. For total cheese production and various types of cheese, January 2018 U.S. and West cheese pro-duction percent changes compared to January 2017 are as follows: Jan Production 2018 vs 2017 U.S. West Total Cheese + 3.4 + 2.9 American + 2.7 + 2.5 Cheddar + 0.3 - 2.6 Total Italian + 3.4 + 2.5 Mozzarella + 3.1 + 2.2 Swiss + 7.5 ...

FOREIGN TYPE CHEESE The European Union (EU) cheese production is active as milk loads are more than enough to meet production needs. Cheese prices in the EU remain flat this week. Interest from the international market is still higher, but not enough to absorb all the supplies of cheese available in the market. However, in Germany sliced cheese is hard to find in the spot market. In the United States, the prices for wholesale blue, gor-gonzola, parmesan, and Romano increased $.0050, but Swiss cuts Switzerland decreased $.1600. All other prices held steady compared to the previous week.

WHOLESALE SELLING PRICES: FOB DISTRIBUTORS DOCK DOLLARS PER POUND (1000 - 5000 POUNDS, MIXED LOTS)

: NEW YORK VARIETY : IMPORTED : DOMESTIC : : Blue : 2.6400-5.2300 : 2.0425-3.5300* Gorgonzola : 3.6900-5.7400 : 2.5500-3.2675* Parmesan (Italy) : -0- : 3.4325-5.5225* Romano (Cows Milk) : -0- : 3.2325-5.3825* Sardo Romano (Argentine) : 2.8500-4.7800 : -0- Reggianito (Argentine) : 3.2900-4.7800 : -0- Jarlsberg-(Brand) : 2.9500-6.4500 : -0- Swiss Cuts Switzerland : -0- : 3.2000-3.5225* Swiss Cuts Finnish : 2.6700-2.9300 : -0-

= Price change.

COLD STORAGE

WEEKLY COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS - SELECTED STORAGE CENTERS IN THOUSAND POUNDS - INCLUDING GOVERNMENT STOCKS

BUTTER : CHEESE : 03/05/18 20,782 : 86,966 03/01/18 19,983 : 87,419 CHANGE 799 : -453 % CHANGE 4 : -1

-3A-

2018 U.S. Cheese and Curd Imports (USDA-FAS) (Imports for Consumption)

2018 Imports % Change From (Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago January Imports TOTAL Cheese and Curd (H.S. Code 0406) 30.8 - 2 Cheese, Except Fresh (H.S. Code 040690) 27.4 - 2 Fresh Cheese (H.S. Code 040610) 1.4 - 22 Cheese, Processed (H.S. Code 040630) 0.8 + 3 Cheese, Blue-Veined (H.S. Code 040640) 1.0 + 42


(Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago TOTAL, JANUARY 30.8 - 2 1 Italy 5.9 + 2 2 France 3.6 - 9 3 Canada 2.6 + 16 4 Denmark 2.0 + 70 5 Germany 1.8 +110

2018 U.S. Cheese and Curd Exports (USDA-FAS)

2018 Exports % Change From

(Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago TOTAL, JANUARY 59.4 + 19 1 Mexico 19.4 + 62 2 South Korea 8.2 + 13 3 Japan 5.8 + 40 4 Australia 4.3 - 11 5 China 2.7 +121


FLUID MILK AND CREAM

In upper parts of the East, milk production is steady to slightly

moving up. During the weekend and into this week, wintry storms

have lingered, causing power outages and disrupted milk haulers’

pick-ups. Northeast balancing operations are steady to close to

capacity. Southeast milk production is increasing. Class I sales are

stable to slightly down in some Southeastern areas. Cream multiples

continue to firm this week ranging, 1.14-1.27. With the holiday

approaching in the next few weeks, Class II and IV production have

increased. Cream is currently less available due to the recent uptick in

demand. Condensed skim market conditions are unchanged as supplies are adequate, but the demand is sluggish. With last

Wednesday’s announcement of the Class and Component Prices, the

Class III Skim Milk price decreased $0.24, compared to the previous

month. The DMN February average for Northeast Class II cream was

$2.3466, compared to $2.2658 a year ago. The DMN February

monthly average for Northeast Class II condensed skim was $0.7132,

compared to $0.6945 a year ago. According to the DMN National

Retail Report-Dairy, for the period of March 2-8, 2018, the U.S.

weighted average advertised price for the half gallon pack size milk

was $1.79, down 65 cents compared to last week, but 2 cents higher

than last year. The Northeast region’s weighted average advertised price for the gallon pack size milk was $2.58, 29 cents below the U.S.

average.

DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, January 2018 U.S. hard

ice cream production totaled 56.6 million gallons, 0.9 percent less

than last year, but 14.3 percent more than a month ago. Meanwhile,

the Atlantic region’s hard ice cream production totaled 12.4 million

gallons, 6.2 percent below a year ago, but 4.4 percent higher than the

last month. U.S. yogurt production (plain and flavored) for January

2018 totaled 368.7 million pounds, down 1.6 percent from last year,

but up 3.6 percent from the previous month.

SPOT PRICES OF CLASS II CREAM, DOLLARS PER LB. BUTTERFAT: F.O.B. producing plants: Northeast - 2.5000-2.7851 F.O.B. producing plants: Upper Midwest - 2.6316-2.7413

PRICES OF CONDENSED SKIM, DOLLARS PER LB. SOLIDS, F.O.B.

PRODUCING PLANTS: Northeast - Class II - includes monthly formula prices - .50- .80

Northeast - Class III - spot prices - .55– .85

MIDWEST

A number of dairy farmers in the upper Midwest are facing a difficult

decision: auction cows when the beef price is ebbing or continue

milking as milk prices are trending downward. Additionally, a

number of conventional and organic dairy farms, both in the Midwest

and eastward, are fighting the clock in order to find new homes for

their milk as their contracts have been given an expiry. During a time

when some dry commodity inventories are coincidentally at record

levels, the situation has become disconcerting to a number of contacts

in the Midwest and throughout the rest of the country. Bottling orders

in the Central are unchanged, as producers are preparing for rerouted

milk loads during spring break. Fluid milk loads into Class III

operations were reported in the $2 to $3 under Class range, although many cheesemakers are foregoing the spot market altogether. Cream

availability is tightening, as Class II and Class III producers are

pulling from the supplies. Some Central region cream buyers and

sellers are expecting next week to be the final push ahead of spring

holiday cream buying season. F.O.B. cream multiples ranged from

1.20 to 1.25. The DMN monthly average of the range price series for

Upper Midwest Class II cream during February 2018 was $2.4800,

compared to $2.4132 a year ago. The DMN National Retail Report-

Dairy for March 2-8 noted the national weighted average advertised

price for one gallon of milk was $2.87, up $.10 from last week, but $.24 below one year ago. The weighted average regional prices in the

Midwest and South Central were $2.04 and $2.99, respectively. The

NASS Dairy Products report noted January U.S. regular (hard) ice

cream production totaled 56.6 million gallons, down 0.9 percent from

last year. January production in the Central region totaled 32.9

million gallons, 11.5 percent above a year ago.

WEST

Throughout the state of California, farm milk production is steady

this week. Milk continues to move out of state as some plants work on repair and maintenance issues. Due to the addition of a new plant

in the state, a few processors report that some of their dairies are

sending milk to the new plant. However, they still have more than

enough milk for processing needs. Milk volumes are plenteous in the

spot market. Class 1 intakes remain flat. Arizona milk supplies

available for processing are ample. Manufacturers are worried that

they might not have enough processing capacity for the spring flush

milk outputs. Fluid milk demand from grocery stores and schools

holds steady. Demand for other Classes of milk to fill contractual

needs seems steady. Nonetheless, some plant managers have to take

more loads of milk to help clear out excess milk. In New Mexico,

farm milk production is trending slightly up. However, repair/

maintenance workloads are affecting intakes for the different Classes

of milk. Class I intakes are following normal patterns. Class II sales

are slightly down. Class III demand varies by plants within the

region. Milk is also clearing out of the state to help with processing.

Pacific Northwest milk production continues to follow seasonal

patterns. Milk intakes are in good balance with processing needs and

there are sufficient volumes of milk. Bottling demand is steady. Some

industry contacts report ice cream manufacturers are ramping up

production runs. In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah and

Colorado, milk production is stable, but in some places output exceeds available processing capacity. A few industry contacts report

discounted spot loads are readily available and some milk is getting

shipped into neighboring states. Regional processors are running at or

near capacity. Farmers are bird-dogging reservoir and snow pack

levels as they begin to plan for the next cropping season. Currently,

contacts suggest reservoir levels are in pretty good shape, however

snow pack is less than normal, especially in some Southern parts of

the region. Available water only adds to the concern, as some farmers

are faced with the possibility of not having a market for their milk in

the months to come. As more milk is available in the West, so is

condensed skim. Most of the condensed skim is clear ing to nonfat dry milk. Processors report a lack of adequate processing capacity in

some areas. Cream inventories remain bountiful in the West.

Multiples vary greatly from state to state, ranging from flat to

1.23. According to the DMN National Retail Report-Dairy for the

week of March 2-8, the national weighted average advertised price

for one gallon of milk is $2.87, up $0.10 from last week, but down

$0.24 from a year ago. The weighted average regional price in the

Southwest is $2.43 with a price range of $1.99-$2.79. The weighted

average regional price in the Northwest is $1.59 with a price range of

$.99 -$1.99. According to the NASS Dairy Products report, hard ice

cream production in the West region for January 2018 is 11.2 million


-4-

EAST


FLUID MILK AND CREAM


gallons, 20.9 percent lower than a month ago, and 21.6 percent

below the previous year. The February 4a price (butter/powder) in

California is $12.72, down $0.21 from the previous month, and

$2.68 lower from a year ago. This compares to the Federal Order Class IV price of $12.87 for February. The February 4b price

(cheese) is $13.38, up $0.01 from the previous month, but $2.43

lower from a year ago. This compares to the Federal Order Class III

price for February at $13.40.

-4A-


NONFAT DRY MILK, BUTTERMILK & WHOLE MILK

Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.

NONFAT DRY MILK - CENTRAL AND EAST

CENTRAL: Pr ices of low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) slipped on the top of the range and bottom of the mostly price series. Following an active previous week, this week’s spot market was relatively placid. Undoubtedly, the NASS Dairy Products report reinstated a frequent murmur heard around the industry: NDM inventories are unnervingly high. Domestic demand has been reported as sluggish, and recently active Mexican buying is beginning to trend lower as well. Central region contacts are expressing concerns about spring flush level milk intakes, particularly in regards to condensed skim drying and NDM inventory levels. High heat NDM prices shifted lower on the bottom of the range, during a steady trading week. Central region high heat NDM inventories are mixed, while buying interest is on the increase. As market prices hover just above historic low points, market analysts question when, or better yet how, NDM market prices will reverse the trend. The CME Group monthly average price for Grade A NDM during February was $0.7097, compared to $0.9000 a year ago. The DMN monthly average of the mostly price series for Central and East low/medium heat NDM during February was $0.7250, compared to $0.9882 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. human NDM production during January 2018 in the Central region totaled 31.2 million pounds, 10.5 percent higher than one year ago. Total U.S. human NDM production during January 2018 was 161.7 million pounds, 5.4 percent higher than last year. Total U.S. NDM, human, month ending stocks for January were 340.2 million pounds, 50 percent above a year ago. EAST: In the East, low/medium heat nonfat dry milk pr ices are steady to lower. Some processors are gradually stepping up NDM production as condensed skim supplies increase seasonally. NDM supplies are readily available for spot sales, but demand is lackluster. Buyers still tend to purchase around their immediate needs. The market tone is weaker. High heat nonfat dry milk prices are steady to lower. Production is intermittent. Inventories are sufficient. The DMN monthly average price during February 2018, in the range series, for East and Central low/medium heat NDM was $0.7217, compared to $0.9721 a year ago. The monthly average for East and Central high heat NDM was $0.9013, compared to $1.1114 a year ago. At the CME Group, the February 2018 NDM monthly average price was $0.7097, compared to $0.9000 the previous year. DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, January 2018 U.S. production of human food nonfat dry milk totaled 28.1 million pounds in the Atlantic region, 3.1 percent less than a year ago and 7.8 percent below the previous month. The January 2018 U.S. production of skim milk powder totaled 45.8 million pounds, 17.2 percent less than a year ago and 8.3 percent less than last month. F.O.B. CENTRAL/EAST: Includes EXTRA GRADE and GRADE A LOW/MEDIUM HEAT: .6800 - .7550 MOSTLY: .7000 - .7400 HIGH HEAT: .8300 - .9800

NONFAT DRY MILK - WEST Western low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) free on board (f.o.b.) spot prices are slightly lower on both the range and mostly series. Similarly, the NDM futures values for the rest of Q1 and Q2 shifted down. Most industry participants agree that the market is weaker compared to a few weeks ago. With the expectation of having heavy drying schedules during the upcoming spring flush, many NDM manufacturers have had to reduce prices to clear aged NDM supplies. In this way, they are planning to have enough storage space to accommodate large amounts of NDM stocks throughout the season.

NDM prices NDM prices from recent and near future production. Meanwhile, with various NDM contract base indices trending down, some buyers/end users are postponing Q2 negotiations, anticipating lower values before the conclusion of Q1. Spot trading is light/moderate as most sales are based on contracts this week. Overall, buyers/end users’ demands are sluggish, below the current NDM/SMP oversupply. Nevertheless, the current NDM pricing trends are attracting the attention of some WPC34% buyers/end users. High heat NDM production is irregular, driven by contractual needs. Inventories are sufficient for fulfilling customer orders. Prices for high heat nonfat dry milk shifted slightly down this week. The February 2018 Dairy Market News monthly average for the West low/medium heat nonfat dry milk mostly series is $0.7221 compared to $0.9758 a year ago. The average for Western high heat nonfat dry milk is $0.9118 compared to $1.1116 a year ago. The CME Group monthly average price for Grade A NDM during February was $0.7097, compared to $0.9000 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. human NDM production during January 2018 in the West region totaled 102.4 million pounds, 6.5 percent higher than one year ago, and 0.5 percent higher from the previous month. Total U.S. human NDM production during January 2018 was 161.7 million pounds, up 5.4 percent from last year. Total U.S. NDM, human, month ending stocks for January were 340.2 million pounds, 50.0 percent above a year ago. F.O.B. WEST: Includes EXTRA GRADE and GRADE A LOW/MEDIUM HEAT: .6150 - .7500 MOSTLY: .6500 - .7200 HIGH HEAT: .8500 - .9400

CALIFORNIA MANUFACTURING PLANTS - NONFAT DRY MILK WEEK ENDING PRICE TOTAL SALES March 2 $.7174 18,283,285 February 23 $.7171 13,893,527 Prices are weighted averages for Extra Grade and Grade A Nonfat Dry Milk, f.o.b. California manufacturing plants. Prices for both periods were influenced by effects of long-term contract sales. Compiled by Dairy Marketing Branch, California Department of Food and Agriculture.

U.S. NDM Exports, H.S. Code 0402100000(FAS) 2018 Exports % Change From (Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago January Total 109.4 + 4 TOTAL, JAN 109.4 + 4 1 Mexico 45.1 + 8 2 Indonesia 12.8 + 8 3 Philippines 10.8 - 35 4 Vietnam 7.1 + 6 5 Pakistan 6.1 + 36

DRY BUTTERMILK - CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL: Pr ices for Central dry buttermilk shifted back down on the top of the range. Spot market activity remains fairly quiet, as most of the trading activity is taking place in the middle of the price range. Dry buttermilk supplies vary from plant to plant, but more producers report limited availability. That said, a number of buyers suggest offers are available, but some of those offers are of off-spec/feed grade powders. Historically, dry buttermilk prices fall close in line with those of nonfat dry milk. In this case, the dry buttermilk market


-5-


NONFAT DRY MILK, BUTTERMILK & WHOLE MILK

Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.

-CONTINUED FROM PAGE 5- tone is fairly questionable at this point, as nonfat dry milk prices are on a downward trajectory. The DMN monthly average of the range price series for Central and East dry buttermilk during February was $0.7287, compared to $0.9742 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. dry buttermilk production during January 2018 totaled 13.1 million pounds, 11 percent higher than a year ago. Total U.S. dry buttermilk month-ending stocks for January were 25.1 million pounds, 12.6 EAST: Pr ices for East dry buttermilk are mostly steady. However , sources reported sluggish cash sales led to a marginal price decline at the top of the range. Dry buttermilk production is mixed. Buyer demand is fair, but supplies are sometimes hard to come by, as some preferred suppliers’ inventories of dry buttermilk is reported limited. The market undertone is variable, in an unsettled market. The February 2018 Dairy Market News monthly average price for Central and East dry buttermilk is $0.7287, compared to $0.9742 a year ago. DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, U.S. production of dry buttermilk during January 2018 totaled 13.1 million pounds, 11 percent above a year ago and 17.0 percent higher than the previous month. Month ending stocks were 25.1 million pounds, up 12.6 percent from last year and 5.9 percent from the previous month. F.O.B. CENTRAL/EAST: .6700 - .7900

DRY BUTTERMILK - WEST

Western free on board (f.o.b.) spot prices for dry buttermilk are unchanged on the range, but slightly lower on the mostly series. Dry buttermilk production is active as cream volumes are ample while butter churning remains strong. Therefore, dry buttermilk spot inventories are becoming more assessable in the spot market. This week, sales activity has been light/moderate as the bulk of transactions are based on contracts. The February 2018 Dairy Market News monthly average for the West dry buttermilk mostly series is $0.7150 compared to $1.0000 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. dry buttermilk production during January 2018 totaled 13.1 million pounds, 11.0 percent higher than a year ago, and 17.0 percent higher than the previous month. Total U.S. dry buttermilk month ending stocks for January were 25.1 million pounds, 12.6 percent above last year. F.O.B. WEST: .6800 - .7700 MOSTLY: .6900 - .7200

DRY WHOLE MILK - NATIONAL

Nationwide, dry whole milk f.o.b. spot prices are steady on light trading. At this point, national pricing is fairly even with the international WMP values. In the U.S., dry whole milk drying schedules have been irregular as most processors are focusing on converting large volumes of condensed skim into NDM/SMP. Nevertheless, dry whole milk manufacturing is expected to increase throughout the spring flush season. Inventories are mixed in the spot market, but are adequate to meet contractual needs. The February 2018 Dairy Market News monthly average for the National price series for dry whole milk is $1.4461 compared to $1.4950 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. dry whole milk production during January 2018 totaled 10.1 million pounds, 15.3 percent lower from one

-5A-

year ago, and 11.0 percent lower than the previous month. Total U.S. dry whole milk month ending stocks for January were 34.1 million pounds, 89.3 percent above last year. F.O.B. PRODUCING PLANT: 1.4000 - 1.5000


WHEY, WPC 34%, LACTOSE & CASEIN Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.

DRY WHEY - CENTRAL Central whey spot prices decreased on the range, while the mostly price series held steady for two consecutive weeks. Dry whey spot activity remained active, as a number of buyers/sellers are finding the low to mid $.20 price point adequate. Regional analysts suggest that any price surges, with the exception of brand or specification requirements, would be difficult to sustain currently, as higher protein blends are dragging the entire whey complex down. Situationally, some Midwestern cheese plants have been closed for updates, in some cases for up to seven days. Thus a few contacts have suggested whey supplies are situationally limited. Chinese demand is steady to increasing. Animal feed whey prices are unchanged on a slower trading week. The overall dry whey market tone is shaky. As a number of Class III producers rely heavily on Southeast Asian exports to maintain manageable inventories, potential trade shifts are a primary concern of Central region whey producers. The DMN monthly average of the mostly price series for Central dry whey during February was $0.2382, compared to $0.4684 a year ago. The monthly average of the range price series for Central animal feed whey during February was $0.1888, compared to $0.4002 a year ago. The NASS Dairy Products report noted U.S. total dry whey (Human) production for January 2018 was 87.2 million pounds, up 9.1 percent from a year ago. The Central region produced 42.1 million pounds of U.S. human dry whey production in January, 6.9 percent higher than a year ago. F.O.B. CENTRAL: .2000 - .3100 MOSTLY: .2200 - .2500 F.O.B. CENTRAL: ANIMAL FEED MILK REPLACER: .1500 - .2150

DRY WHEY - NORTHEAST

Northeastern whey powder prices tilted lower on the top of the range this week. Trading activities are fairly steady as multiple buyers and end users are purchasing around the price range. With cheese production operating at steady to high levels, dry whey production is generally following the same pattern. Supplies are stable to slightly growing. The market tone is somewhat mixed as many market participants are trading around mid to upper $.20s. However, some sources have provided anecdotal information of a few spot offers at a premium. The February 2018 Dairy Market News monthly average for Northeast dry whey was $0.2772 compared to $0.4896 one year ago. DAIRY PRODUCTS: According to NASS, January 2018 U.S. human food dry whey production totaled 87.1 million pounds, 9.1 percent above a year ago and 6.4 more than the previous month. In the Atlantic region, the production of human food dry whey for January 2018 totaled 20.5 million pounds, 8.0 percent less than a year ago and 0.6 percent less than last month. F.O.B. NORTHEAST: EXTRA GRADE AND GRADE A: .2500 - .2900

DRY WHEY – WEST F.O.B prices for western dry whey are steady this week. According to some contacts, there is an uptick in current dry whey demand from the Southeast Asian market. Domestic demand is relatively stable. Dry whey output is ongoing following the seasonal pattern. Stocks remain plentiful to meet all needs. Industry contacts feel that the weakness in the market for whey protein concentrates and isolates might negatively affect dry whey prices. The DMN monthly average of the mostly price series for West dry whey during February was $0.2416 compared to $0.2587 one month ago and $0.4938 a year ago. NASS reports that January 2018 U.S. human dry whey production, 87.1 million pounds, is up 9.1 percent from a year ago, and up 6.4 percent from December 2017. The Western region produced 24.6 million pounds of human dry whey during January,

up 34.6 percent from last year, and up 17.3 percent from last month. Month ending stocks for U.S. human dry whey, at 86.1 million pounds, are 28.6 percent higher than one year ago, but down 11.7 percent from December 2017. NONHYGROSCOPIC: .2100 - .3200 MOSTLY: .2200 - .2800

U.S. Dry Whey Exports. H.S. Code 0404104000(FAS)

2018 Exports % Change From (Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago

January Total 44.1 + 30 TOTAL, JAN 44.1 + 30 1 China 16.5 + 26 2 Japan 4.3 + 139 3 Mexico 3.7 + 10 4 Canada 2.8 - 28 5 Philippines 2.8 + 49 WHEY PROTEIN CONCENTRATE 34% - CENTRAL AND WEST

Whey protein concentrate 34% prices are mostly unchanged, except for a slight increase on the bottom of the price range. WPC34% that meets infant formula requirements or tight customer specifications continues to have strong demand, tight supplies, and firm prices. A few manufacturers say they are behind on orders, but keep getting requests from buyers. However, manufacturers of less specialized WPC34%, that which is interchangeable with other protein sources, find continued pressure from the mixed rabble of the protein market. Ample supplies of discounted higher whey protein concentrations and nonfat dry milk prevent this WPC34% from gaining any traction. These processors say demand is weak, prices are low, and inventories are abundant for their WPC34%. They also suggest prices may recede further unless improvements are felt across the dry dairy protein markets. The February 2018 Dairy Market News average of the mostly price series for Central and West whey protein concentrate 34% was $0.7211, compared to $0.7268 one month ago and $0.9905 one year ago. According to the NASS Dairy Products report U.S. production of WPC (25.0-49.9% protein) during January 2018 totaled 16.7 million pounds, 11.2 percent higher than one year ago and 8.7 percent higher than December. Manufacturers’ end-of-month stocks for WPC (25.0-49.9% protein) totaled 25.1 million pounds, 15.5 percent higher than one year ago, and 1.2 percent more than December 2017. F.O.B. EXTRA GRADE 34% PROTEIN: .6000 - .9400 MOSTLY: .6400 - .7600

U.S. WPC < 80% Exports, H.S. Code 0404100500(FAS) 2018 Exports % Change From

(Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago TOTAL, JAN 34.0 + 16 1 China 16.4 + 8 2 Mexico 4.3 + 15 3 Canada 3.5 + 7 4 Indonesia 1.7 + 14 5 Hong Kong 1.6 + 7,210

LACTOSE - CENTRAL AND WEST

Lactose prices are unchanged at the top of the range and mostly price series, but moved slightly higher at the bottom of each price series. The lactose market seems to have found a stable tone. Inventories are mixed. While a few manufacturers report committed


-6-


WHEY, WPC 34%, LACTOSE & CASEIN Prices represent carlot/trucklot quantities for domestic and export sales packaged in 25 kg. or 50 lb. bags, or totes, spray process, dollars per pound.


supplies, others say their inventories are sufficient to meet most buyer requests. A few manufacturers appear to have stocks they want to clear before spring, as indicated by the occasional large sale or discounted spot sale at the bottom end of the price range. Industry contacts also suggest mixed demand. Contacts say demand from Asia has picked up a little. But in Oceania, U.S. processors are facing aggressive competition and low prices from European lactose. Some say EU producers are targeting New Zealand in efforts to gain market share. U.S. lactose production is steady to lower due to some down time of dryers and lower whey protein isolate production. Quarter 2 contracting is active and a number of processors report pushing price offers a few pennies due to tight stocks and strong demand. However, increasing freight rates and some low prices offered by competitors are not making the negotiations any easier. The February 2018 Dairy Market News average of the mostly price series for Central and West lactose was $0.2159, compared to $0.2146 one month ago and $0.3750 one year ago. NASS’s Dairy Products report shows U.S. lactose production during January 2018 totaled 94.1 million pounds, a 1.5 percent increase from one year ago, but 2.9 percent less than last month. Month ending stocks, at 129.3 million pounds, are 16.7 percent higher than one year ago, but 4.4 percent less than December 2017. Including spot sales and up to 3 month contracts. F.O.B. EDIBLE, NON PHARMACEUTICAL .1650 - .3500 MOSTLY: .1800 - .2450

U.S. Lactose Exports, H.S. Code 1702110000(FAS) 2018 Exports % Change From

(Million Lb.) 1 Year Ago TOTAL, JAN 49.7 + 6 1 Mexico 9.3 - 24 2 China 8.8 + 35 3 New Zealand 5.5 - 1 4 Japan 5.2 + 4 5 Indonesia 4.4 + 35

CASEIN - NATIONAL Casein markets strengthened. Rennet casein firmed at each end of the price range. Acid casein firmed at the bottom of the price range. Buyers are currently believed to be slightly more motivated to lock in supplies, which helped nudge prices higher this week. Many sellers are less willing to yield much as to pricing and enough buyers have wanted to close deals to help prices along. Data now available for New Zealand casein exports during January 2018, shows volumes down 1.1 percent from January 2017. Casein supplies are reported slightly tighter in the region, as the aftermath of peak milk production season storms and extreme heat settle in. At GDT event 207 on March 6, the all contracts price of rennet casein, $2.3260, increased 2.2 percent. The April contract price, $2.4222, increased 8.9 percent. SPOT SALES AND UP TO 3 MONTH CONTRACTS. PRICES ARE F.O.B., U.S. WAREHOUSE FOR EDIBLE NONRESTRICTED AND VARY ACCORDING TO MESH SIZE AND QUALITY. RENNET: 2.3275 - 2.4225 ACID: 3.0200 - 3.3500

-6A-

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 - 9, 2018 -7- VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

U.S. Dairy Cow Slaughter (1000 head) under Federal Inspection

2018 WEEKLY 2018 2017 WEEKLY 2017 WEEK ENDING DAIRY COWS CUMULATIVE DAIRY COWS DAIRY COWS CUMULATIVE DAIRY COWS 02/17/2018 67.1 452.3 62.6 439.3 WEBSITE: http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/sj_ls714.txt SOURCE: The slaughter data are gathered and tabulated in a cooperative effort by the Agricultural Marketing Service, The Food Safety and Inspection Service, and the National Agricultural Statistics Service, all of USDA.

CLASS III MILK PRICES (3.5% Butterfat)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 18.14 17.25 16.93 17.59 18.52 18.02 17.38 17.91 18.14 18.22 18.83 18.95 2014 21.15 23.35 23.33 24.31 22.57 21.36 21.60 22.25 24.60 23.82 21.94 17.82 2015 16.18 15.46 15.56 15.81 16.19 16.72 16.33 16.27 15.82 15.46 15.30 14.44 2016 13.72 13.80 13.74 13.63 12.76 13.22 15.24 16.91 16.39 14.82 16.76 17.40 2017 16.77 16.88 15.81 15.22 15.57 16.44 15.45 16.57 16.36 16.69 16.88 15.44

CLASS IV MILK PRCES (3.5% Butterfat)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 17.63 17.75 17.75 18.10 18.89 18.88 18.90 19.07 19.43 20.17 20.52 21.54 2014 22.29 23.46 23.66 23.34 22.65 23.13 23.78 23.89 22.58 21.35 18.21 16.70 2015 13.23 13.82 13.80 13.51 13.91 13.90 13.15 12.90 15.08 16.43 16.89 15.52 2016 13.31 13.49 12.74 12.68 13.09 13.77 14.84 14.65 14.25 13.66 13.76 14.97 2017 16.19 15.59 14.32 14.01 14.49 15.89 16.60 16.61 15.86 14.85 13.99 13.51

FEDERAL MILK ORDER CLASS PRICES FOR 2018 (3.5% Butterfat)

CLASS JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC I 1/ 15.44 14.25 13.36 II 14.11 13.44 III 14.00 13.40 IV 13.13 12.87

1/ Specific order differentials to be added to this base price can be found by going to: www.ams.usda.gov/DairyMarketingStatistics; then select “Prices”; and then select “Principal Pricing Points.”

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00

$19.00

$20.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Class I2016

2017

2018

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00

$19.00


Class II 201620172018

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00

$19.00


Class III201620172018

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

$18.00


Class IV 201620172018

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 – 9, 2018 VOLUME 85, REPORT 10 ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS

Information gathered February 26 - March 9, 2018

ORGANIC DAIRY FLUID OVERVIEW Midwest Organic Dairy Producers Lose Markets. The churning within the organic dairy sector continues. A smaller Midwest organic coop has been told by a processor that less organic milk will be needed moving forward. This has resulted in some coop member organic dairy producers losing their milk contracts. In other cases, nonmembers selling organic milk to processing coops have been told their milk will no longer have a home. That coop has just announced the organic milk pay price for the coming year will be $22.50, a disappointingly low price for most producers. Another larger organic cooperative which previously had posted its organic milk pay prices on its website no longer has the price available through the website link. The falling pay price for organic milk and disappearing sales options are causing great stress within the organic dairy sector. For some time the perception of too much organic milk has often been suggested as explaining situations such as this. Now though, some knowledgeable people within the Midwest organic dairy sector state that more complex analysis will better illustrate what is happening. At least some of the Wisconsin produced and processed organic milk will be replaced by milk trucked to Wisconsin from among the largest U.S. organic mega dairy farms, located in Texas, apparently at prices which still keep it less expensive than the contracted prices with the local Wisconsin organic producers. Even with estimated trucking costs from Texas to Wisconsin of up to $5.00 per hundredweight, some Wisconsin processors have switched from sourcing local milk, to milk trucked from Texas. It is over 1,100 miles from some locations in Texas to parts of Wisconsin, for example. This is emblematic of a continuing source of friction within the organic dairy industry - farm size. As is often discussed at organic conferences, on organic blogs, and in research papers, the size issue relates to the magnitude and quality of access to pasture for dairy cows. It also relates to the socioeconomic composition and health of rural communities when typical farms are one size versus another. Finally, it relates to the efficiency of manufacturing milk and dairy products when organic milk is transported long distances, using more fuel, to replace locally produced milk already available. Texas has organic dairy farms much larger than most in Wisconsin in three measures: sales quantity; average sales per farm in volumes; and average sales per farm in dollars. The NASS 2016 Certified Organic Survey enumerates demographics of organic dairying in U.S. states including Wisconsin and Texas. Data from the 2016 survey comparing Wisconsin organic dairy farms and those in Texas follows. Number of Farms Wisconsin Texas 453 6 State Sales Quantity (000,000) pounds Wisconsin Texas 370.6 481.4 Average Sales/Farm (000,000) pounds Wisconsin Texas 0.8 80.2

Average Sales Per farm-dollars Wisconsin Texas $277,998 $27,415,333 The data reveal that for the six organic dairy farms in Texas, average dollar sales per farm are nearly 100 times greater than the average organic dairy farm in Wisconsin. The average organic dairy farm in Texas averages just over 100 times the quantity of organic milk produced on the average Wisconsin organic dairy farm. There is some concern expressed that economic pressures facing organic processors will further fuel the erosion of organic dairy farming profitability in states such as Wisconsin, losing out to very large organic dairy operations such as in Texas. Organic Cheese Stocks Are Increasing. A less delineated aspect of the challenges of utilizing and processing current volumes of organic milk, goes beyond milk itself. Cheese is one product option used to convert organic milk not needed for fluid milk sales, into a longer shelf life storable form. Some Midwest organic cheese manufacturers report that stocks of organic cheese in cold storage are building faster than sales. For awhile the cheese option is taking up some organic milk not needed for fluid sales, but there is increasing thought being given to how much organic cheese can be maintained in stocks and how that could affect manufacturing volumes, or profitability. Organic Cow Auction Prices. At a livestock auction in Oregon, March 2, organic cows sold for slaughter sold at a discount to conventional cows. The average of all organic cows auctioned brought a price of $0.6043 per pound, compared with a $0.6608 average for all conventional cows. The top 40 organic cows brought an average price of $0.6335 per pound, versus $0.7419 for conventional cows. ORGANIC GRAIN AND FEEDSTUFF MARKETS. Feed grade organic corn demand is good with moderate activity, trading 42 cents higher f.o.b. The bulk of trading is on the west coast. Feed grade organic soybean activity is too limited to trend, but prices are steady. Organic food grade wheat activity is too limited to trend, but prices are steady. Organic soybean meal demand is good with moderate activity and steady prices. Few contracts have been made for new crop organic feed grade corn and soybeans. Offers seem lower than current market prices overall. All other organic grain activity is too limited to trend.

CONTINUED ON PAGE –8A-

-8-

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 – 9, 2018 VOLUME 85, REPORT 10 ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS

Information gathered February 26 - March 9, 2018

CONTINUED FROM PAGE –8-

Source: Graphs by Livestock, Poultry and Grain Market News

Additional livestock and grain market news information is available at: www.ams.usda.gov/LSMarketNews

ORGANIC DAIRY RETAIL OVERVIEW

Countrywide, organic retail survey ads declined 2 percent. For now, the percentage changes in total organic ads by commodity compared to the previous survey period show organic milk at 46 percent, down 5 percent; organic yogurt at 41 percent, up 8 percent; and organic cottage cheese at 2 percent, up 1 percent. In addition, organic cream cheese and organic flavored milk ads were included in retail store ads this period, but organic butter, organic ice cream, and organic sour cream were not included in store promotions this period. Commodity specific changes in ad numbers show both organic cheese and yogurt ads increased, 183 and 23 percent respectively, but organic milk declined 11 percent. This week, the retail milk price spread between organic and conventional half gallon milk conveys an organic premium of 96 cents. The pie chart below displays percentages of all the organic commodities detailed in the survey. Click the link to view the PDF version of this report, https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dybdairyorganic.pdf

Data source: USDA Dairy Market News

Advertising information presented is compiled from nearly 23,000 surveyed newspaper supermarket ads. Prices are valid from March 9-15, 2018, identifying weekly specials and containing organic dairy content. Retail survey ads reflect “advertised specials” and not the range of non-advertised supermarket cooler prices.

NATIONAL RETAIL ORGANIC DAIRY WEIGHTED AVERAGE ADVERTISED PRICE (Dollars) Commodity This Last Last Week Week Year Butter … 4.99 5.01 Milk Half Gal. 3.48 4.06 3.69 Gal. 6.15 6.37 5.03 8 oz. … … .50 Yogur 4-6 oz. Greek 1.25 1.20 1.14 32 oz. Greek 3.54 3.16 … 4-6 oz. Yogurt 1.17 .99 1.10 32 oz. Yogurt 2.80 2.98 2.99 DIRECT TO CONSUMER ORGANIC DAIRY PRODUCTS PRICES. The following tables identify U.S. price range results from a Dairy Market News national survey of publicly available prices of organic dairy products, available from farmstead outlets and online. There may be prices offered outside of the price range which were not identified by the survey. These are cows’ milk products. Information is for the period February 26-March 9, 2018. ORGANIC CHEESE Commodity Type Pack Size : Organic : : Price Range $ : Cheese Cheddar - Mild-Medium 8 oz. : 3.75 – 12.00 : Cheese Cheddar - Sharp 8 oz. : 3.75 – 12.00 : Cheese Colby 8 oz. : 3.75 - 8.00 : Cheese Monterey Jack 8 oz. : 3.75 – 8.00 : Cheese Mozzarella 8 oz. : 3.75 – 12.50 : Cheese Gouda 8 oz. : 3.75 – 11.00 : Cheese Curds 16 oz. : 4.20 - 8.00 : ORGANIC BUTTER Butter 1 lb. : 8.00 – 14.00 :

-8A-

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 – 9, 2018 -9- VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

March Supply and Demand Estimates The milk production forecast for 2018 is raised from last month on more rapid growth in milk per cow in the first half of the year. The 2018 imports on a fat and skim-solids basis are reduced on slower sales of a number of processed dairy products. Exports on fat basis are raised on increased cheese sales and exports on a skim-solids basis are raised on stronger sales of both cheese and whey products. The supply and use estimates are adjusted to reflect revisions to 2016 and 2017 milk production and 2017 storage data. Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are raised from the previous month as recent prices have increased. However, continued large supplies of nonfat dry milk (NDM) are expected to pressure NDM prices, and the forecast is reduced. No change is made to the annual whey price forecast. The Class III price is raised on the cheese price projection, while the Class IV price is down, as the lower NDM price more than offsets a higher butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast at $15.75 to $16.35 per cwt, unchanged at the midpoint.

U.S. Milk Supply and Use

Commodity 2016 2017 Estimated 2018 Projected

Feb Mar Feb Mar (billion pounds) Milk Production 212.4 215.4 215.5 218.7 219.0 Farm Use 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Fat Basis Supply Beginning Commercial Stocks 12.3 12.7 12.7 13.5 13.5 Marketings 211.4 214.4 214.5 217.7 218.0 Imports 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.7 Total Commercial Supply 230.8 233.2 233.2 237.3 237.2 Fat Basis Use Commercial Exports 8.4 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.6 Ending Commercial Stocks 12.7 13.5 13.5 12.9 12.8 CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic Commercial Use 209.6 210.4 210.4 214.9 214.8 Skim-Solid Basis Supply Beginning Commercial Stocks 9.2 9.5 9.5 11.9 11.8 Marketings 211.4 214.4 214.5 217.7 218.0 Imports 6.5 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 Total Commercial Supply 227.1 230.0 230.0 235.7 235.7 Skim-Solids Basis Use Commercial Exports 39.0 40.8 40.8 42.5 42.8 Ending Commercial Stocks 9.5 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.3 CCC Donations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic Commercial Use 178.5 177.3 177.5 181.6 181.6

NOTE: Totals may not add due to rounding. Continued on page 11

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 - 9, 2018 -10- VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

March Milk Supply and Demand Estimates-cont’d

1 Simple average of monthly prices calculated from AMS weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. Details may be found by going to http://www.ams.usda.gov/rules-regulations/mmr/dmr; scroll down to Publications, National Dairy Products Sales Reports, and select Current Release & Archives.” 2 Annual and quarterly Class III and Class IV prices are the simple average of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3 Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation. 4 Projection. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. World Agricultural Outlook Board. World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-575, March 8, 2018. Approved by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee [members for Dairy are: Shayle Shagam, Chairperson, WAOB; Carolyn Liebrand, AMS; Paul Kiendl, FAS; Jerry Cessna, ERS; and Milton Madison, FSA].

U.S. Dairy Prices

Commodity 2016 2017 Estimated 2018 Projected

Feb Mar Feb Mar (dollars per pound) Product Prices 1 Cheese 1.6050 1.6344 1.6344 1.530-1.600 1.545-1.605 Butter 2.0777 2.3303 2.3303 2.195-2.295 2.210-2.300 Nonfat Dry Milk 0.8292 0.8666 0.8666 0.715-0.775 0.700-0.750 Dry Whey 0.2875 0.4437 0.4437 0.270-0.300 0.265-0.295 (dollars per cwt) Milk Prices 2 Class III 14.87 16.17 16.17 14.20-14.90 14.30-14.90 Class IV 13.77 15.16 15.16 13.35-14.15 13.25-13.95 All Milk 3 16.30 17.63 17.63 15.70-16.40 15.75-16.35 Quarterly 2017 IV 2018 I 4 2018 II 4 2018 III 4 2018 IV 4 (billion pounds) Milk Production 53.1 54.4 56.2 54.2 54.2 (dollars per cwt) All Milk Price 2, 3 17.73 15.55-15.75 15.25-15.75 15.60-16.40 16.60-17.60 Class III Price 2 16.34 13.70-13.90 14.15-14.65 14.50-15.30 14.85-15.85 Class IV Price 2 14.12 12.90-13.20 13.15-13.75 13.30-14.20 13.65-14.75

DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 - 9, 2018 -G1- VOLUME 85, REPORT 10

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

250


THOUSANDS

FEDERAL ORDERS INCLUDED ARE: 30, 32, 33, 126

Average Somatic Cell Count of Producer Milk in Four Federal Milk Orders Combined

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017DATA SOURCE, USDA, AMS, DAIRY PROGRAMS, MIB; GRAPH, USDA, AMS, DMN

3.50

3.54

3.58

3.62

3.66

3.70

3.74

3.78

3.82

3.86

3.90

3.94

3.98


%

DATA SOURCE, USDA, AMS, DAIRY PROGRAMS, MIB; GRAPH, USDA, AMS, DMN

Average Butterfat Test of Producer Milk in All Federal Milk Orders Combined

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017FEDERAL ORDERS INCLUDED ARE: 1, 5, 6, 7, 30, 32, 33, 124, 126, 131

2.92

2.95

2.98

3.01

3.04

3.07

3.10

3.13

3.16

3.19

3.22

3.25


%

FEDERAL ORDERS INCLUDED ARE: 1, 30, 32, 33, 124, 126

Average Protein (True) Test of Producer Milk in Six Component Pricing Federal Milk Orders Combined

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017DATA SOURCE, USDA, AMS, DAIRY PROGRAMS, MIB; GRAPH, USDA, AMS, DMN

1 -- Dairy Market News surveys nearly 150 retailers, comprising over 23,000 individual stores, with online weekly advertised features.

Dairy Market News Branch

AgriculturalMarketingService

National Retail Report-DairyWebsites: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home and http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dybretail.pdf

Volume 85- Number 10 Issued Weekly Friday, March 9, 2018

Advertised Prices for Dairy Products at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 03/09/2018 to 03/15/2018

Total conventional dairy advertisements slightly increased by 1 percent this week, but total organic dairy advertisements decreased by 2 percent. Conventional shredded cheese in 8 oz packages was the top advertised dairy item for the week, followed by ice cream in 48-64 ounce containers. Half gallon milk was the top advertised organic dairy item. Advertisement numbers for conventional milk in half gallon containers increased by 485 percent, the largest percentage increase for a conventional dairy item this week.

The national weighted average advertised conventional milk price for half gallons, $2.52, increased 73 cents from a week ago. Milk gallons averaged $3.02, up 15 cents. Organic half gallon prices averaged $3.48, down 58 cents from one week ago. The resulting organic-conventional half gallon price spread is $0.96.

Total conventional cheese advertisements increased 11 percent while organic cheese advertisements rose 183 percent compared to last week. The weighted average price of conventional 8 ounce block cheese was $2.19. The weighted average price of conventional 8 ounce shred cheese was $2.16, compared to $2.99 for organic 8 ounce shreds, an organic premium of 83 cents.

The U.S. average conventional one pound butter price was $3.95 this period, up 39 cents from a week ago. The weighted average advertised price for organic yogurt in 4-6 ounce containers is $1.17, compared to 53 cents for conventional, an organic premium of 64 cents.

Cheese Yogurt Ice cream Sour cream Cream cheese

Sto

res

with

Ads

0K

5K

10K

15K

20K

25K

30K

03/09/2018 03/02/2018 02/23/2018

Top 5 Commodities Featured This Week

http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/dybretail.pdf

National Retail Report - Dairy Vol 85 - No. 10Friday, March 9, 2018 - Page 2

Wtd Avg - Simple weighted average

Butter, 4%

Cheese, 29%

Cottage cheese, 3%

Cream cheese, 8%

Flavored milk, 1%Ice cream, 14%

Milk, 3%

Sour cream, 12%

Yogurt, 22%

Percentage of Total Conventional Ads by Commodity

Cheese, 1%

Cottage cheese, 2%

Cream cheese, 8%

Flavored milk, 2%

Milk, 46%

Yogurt, 41%

Percentage of Total Organic Ads by Commodity



NATIONAL -- CONVENTIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS

Commodity Type Pack Size

THIS PERIOD LAST WEEK LAST YEAR

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

StoresWith Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 3729 3.95 4299 3.56 3882 3.18

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 8146 2.19 9428 2.27 8250 2.25

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 1633 3.31 1373 4.02 1253 3.45

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 257 7.02 1896 5.28 247 6.01

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 13571 2.16 8838 2.20 7611 2.31

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 1098 2.92 721 4.59 695 3.07

Cottage cheese 16 oz 2412 1.92 3951 1.78 4115 1.90

Cream cheese 8 oz 6567 1.79 4612 1.93 4076 1.90

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 321 2.16 668 2.29 268 1.36

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 444 3.13 310 2.30 716 2.53

Ice cream 48-64oz 11815 3.16 13865 3.00 10781 3.27

Milk All fat tests half gallon 468 2.52 80 1.79 655 1.55

Milk All fat tests gallon 1843 3.02 2938 2.87 1522 2.51

Sour cream 16 oz 10001 1.76 7803 1.72 9252 1.84

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 11567 .94 10982 .98 10958 .97

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 796 3.97 1794 4.01 2951 4.64

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 6263 .53 4175 .55 7859 .51

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 759 2.24 3066 2.65 1029 3.59

REGIONAL -- CONVENTIONAL DAIRY PRODUCTS


NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHEAST U.S. MIDWEST U.S.

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Price Range

Stores with Ads

Wtd AvgPrice

Butter 1 # 1.88-4.99 1021 3.91 3.50-3.99 1799 3.97 3.33-3.49 175 3.43

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 1.29-3.00 2400 2.16 1.66-3.00 2496 2.14 1.99-2.50 888 2.16

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 3.29-4.79 551 3.82 2.49 324 2.49 2.49-3.99 226 3.26

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 1.29-3.00 2632 2.12 1.66-2.50 3879 2.06 1.50-2.50 2127 2.17

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 3.99 100 3.99 2.49 210 2.49 2.49-3.99 226 3.26

Cottage cheese 16 oz 1.99-2.50 1340 2.07 1.99-2.50 278 2.38 1.00-2.00 520 1.45

Cream cheese 8 oz 1.46-4.99 1131 1.92 0.99-1.99 2688 1.54 1.49-2.59 1040 2.03

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 2.50 214 2.50 1.48 107 1.48

Flavored milk All fat tests gallon 3.99 62 3.99 2.99 382 2.99

Ice cream 48-64oz 1.99-4.49 2692 2.94 2.49-4.49 2796 3.14 2.50-3.99 1538 3.35

Milk All fat tests half gallon 3.00 108 3.00

Milk All fat tests gallon 2.99-4.99 331 3.98 2.49-3.99 298 3.57 0.99-2.99 557 2.48

Sour cream 16 oz 1.50-2.49 1621 1.83 1.48-2.00 3705 1.85 0.99-2.19 1567 1.60

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.75-1.25 3174 .97 0.80-1.00 1856 .97 0.80-1.00 1276 .96

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 3.99-4.99 269 4.39 3.99 214 3.99

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 0.39-1.00 2043 .53 0.40-0.50 2208 .48 0.50-0.66 808 .56





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Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 1.99-2.50 386 2.18 2.48 180 2.48


SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWEST U.S.

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Butter 1 # 2.49-3.49 256 3.03 4.99 246 4.99 3.99-4.49 166 4.17

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 1.69-3.00 1196 2.23 1.99-3.00 825 2.45 1.67-2.00 286 1.87

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 2.49-5.49 421 3.44 2.49 90 2.49

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 7.99 167 7.99 4.99 69 4.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 1.69-3.49 2639 2.22 1.99-3.00 1773 2.35 1.67-2.50 521 2.09

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 2.49 210 2.49 2.49-2.99 331 2.85

Cottage cheese 16 oz 2.00 55 2.00 1.00 114 1.00 2.00 105 2.00

Cream cheese 8 oz 1.50-1.99 834 1.86 1.67-2.50 627 2.05 1.99-2.00 226 1.99

Ice cream 48-64oz 2.28-5.99 1560 3.34 2.50-4.50 2261 3.28 1.49-3.99 934 2.87

Milk All fat tests half gallon 1.79 80 1.79 1.99 246 1.99

Milk All fat tests gallon 1.97-3.98 420 2.90 1.99-2.79 176 2.27 2.99 61 2.99

Sour cream 16 oz 1.00-2.00 1780 1.74 1.00-1.99 816 1.75 1.25-1.74 488 1.44

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.79-1.00 1688 .90 0.75-1.00 2762 .91 0.80-1.00 714 .90

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 2.50-4.99 292 3.58

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 0.49-0.88 200 .60 0.50-0.75 306 .70 0.39-0.75 698 .55

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2.00-2.19 193 2.12


ALASKA U.S. HAWAII U.S.

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Butter 1 # 3.49-4.99 42 4.24 3.99 24 3.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 3.49 21 3.49 2.50 34 2.50

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # block 3.99 21 3.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 2 # block 5.99 21 5.99

Cheese Natural Varieties 1 # shred 3.99 21 3.99

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.49 21 2.49

Ice cream 48-64oz 3.79 34 3.79

Milk All fat tests half gallon 6.49 34 6.49

Sour cream 16 oz 2.69 24 2.69

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 0.99-1.25 63 1.16 1.25 34 1.25

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 4.00 21 4.00

NATIONAL -- ORGANIC DAIRY PRODUCTS




THIS PERIOD LAST WEEK LAST YEAR

StoresWith Ads

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Butter 1 # 80 4.99 751 5.01

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz block 21 3.49 312 3.08

Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 119 2.99 21 3.49 238 4.06

Cottage cheese 16 oz 133 2.99 61 5.49 51 2.99

Cream cheese 8 oz 629 2.50 306 2.59

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 180 3.99

Ice cream 48-64oz 1083 4.50

Milk All fat tests half gallon 3519 3.48 3181 4.06 3754 3.69

Milk All fat tests gallon 247 6.15 1056 6.37 1133 5.03

Milk All fat tests 8 oz UHT 216 .50

Sour cream 16 oz 80 1.99

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 1083 1.25 376 1.20 510 1.14

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 684 3.54 158 3.16

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 241 1.17 640 .99 384 1.10

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 1333 2.80 1541 2.98 588 2.99

REGIONAL -- ORGANIC DAIRY PRODUCTS



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Cheese Natural Varieties 8 oz shred 2.99 119 2.99

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.50 210 2.50 2.50 119 2.50

Flavored milk All fat tests half gallon 3.99 180 3.99

Milk All fat tests half gallon 3.00-5.29 804 3.87 2.99-3.79 703 3.25 2.99-3.99 770 3.23

Milk All fat tests gallon 5.99 167 5.99

Yogurt Greek 4-6 oz 1.25 1083 1.25

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 3.50 62 3.50 2.50-2.99 485 2.85

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 1.25 161 1.25

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 3.49 221 3.49 2.50 210 2.50 2.50 110 2.50




SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHWEST U.S.

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Cottage cheese 16 oz 2.99 133 2.99

Cream cheese 8 oz 2.50 210 2.50 2.50 90 2.50

Milk All fat tests half gallon 2.00-4.49 620 3.48 2.99-3.99 448 3.79 2.50-3.44 174 2.87

Milk All fat tests gallon 6.49 80 6.49

Yogurt Greek 32 oz 5.99 137 5.99

Yogurt Yogurt 4-6 oz 1.00 80 1.00

Yogurt Yogurt 32 oz 2.50-3.99 478 2.75 2.49-3.00 314 2.68


ALASKA U.S. HAWAII U.S.

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REGIONAL DEFINITIONS

As used in this report, regions include the following states:

NORTHEAST U.S. Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Hampshire, New jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont

SOUTHEAST U.S. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West VirginiaMIDWEST U.S. Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and WisconsinSOUTH CENTRAL U.S. Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and TexasSOUTHWEST U.S. Arizona, California, Nevada and UtahNORTHWEST U.S. Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and WyomingALASKA AlaskaHAWAII HawaiiNATIONAL Continental United States

USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer

Dairy Market News United States Department of Agriculture

Agricultural Marketing Service Dairy Programs Market Information Branch

Volume 85, Report 10 March 9, 2018

GENERAL NUMBER (608) 422-8587 Elizabeth Frederick (608) 422-8587 [email protected] INTERNS Al Yang (608) 422-8598 [email protected] Jennifer Hernandez (608) 422-8597 [email protected]

EAST/ ORGANIC Daniel Johnson (608) 422-8605 [email protected]

EAST Jessica Mueller (608) 422-8589 [email protected]

CENTRAL Israel Weber (608) 422-8601 [email protected]

SOUTHWEST/SOUTH AMERICA AJ (Angel José) Terán (608) 422-8593 Angel.Terá[email protected]

SOUTHWEST Florence Kone-Gonzalez (608) 422-8594 [email protected]

NORTHWEST/MOUNTAIN Mike Bandli (608) 422-8592 [email protected]

ORGANIC/EUROPE & OCEANIA Eric Graf (608) 422-8590 [email protected]

NATIONAL SUPERVISOR

Janet Linder (608) 422-8588 [email protected]

BRANCH CHIEF

Butch Speth (608) 422-8586 [email protected]

INTERNET ADDRESS www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy

MARKET NEWS PORTAL www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

RECORDED INFORMATION SYSTEM (608) 422-8602

FAX (608) 240-6689 ________________________ USDA, Dairy Market News 4600 American Parkway, STE 106 Madison, WI 53718-8334

DAIRY MARKET NEWS - Amazon S3 · 2018-03-23 · DAIRY MARKET NEWS, MARCH 5 --9, 2018 VOLUME 85, REPORT 10 NORTHEAST Butter production is tapering off for some processors, but others

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