DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Microsoft...(24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment. 16 November 2016 DAILY TECHNICAL

RESEARCH TEAM

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

16 November 2016

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

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EUR / USD

Important selling pressures.

• EUR/USD has broken hourly support at 1.0709 (14/11/2016 low) while hourly resistance is given at 1.0954 (10/11/2016 high). The technical structure suggests further decline. Expected to see continued bearish pressures. • In the longer term, the death cross indicates a further bearish bias despite the pair has increased since last December. Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Strong support is given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low).

Yann Quelenn ¦ Market Strategist e-mail: [email protected]

16 November 2016DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

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GBP / USD

Medium-term momentum remains lively.

• GBP/USD is riding lower within medium-term uptrend channel. Hourly support is given at 1.2354 (09/11/2016 low). Resistance stands far away at 1.2674 (11/11/2016 high). As expected the pairs has bounced. Expected to continue pushing higher. • The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.



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USD / JPY

Is sky the limit?

• USD/JPY 's buying pressures are still important. Hourly resistance now lies at 109.44 (intraday high) while hourly support lies at 107.77 (15/11/2016 low). Key support can be found at 100.09 (27/09/2016). Expected to see further upside moves. • We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).



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USD / CHF

Breaking parity.

• USD/CHF has bas expected broken parity. Hourly support is given at 0.9929 (15/11/2016 low). Expected to see further continued consolidation. • In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.



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USD / CAD

Continued bearish consolidation.

• USD/CAD's bullish pressures are definitely on despite ongoing consolidation. Key support at 1.3000 (22/09/2016 low) seems nonetheless far. Closest resistance lies at 1.3589 (14/11/2016 high). Expected to see continued increase. Time to reload bullish positions. • In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).




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AUD / USD

Edging lower.

• AUD/USD's bearish momentum is growing after the break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Hourly support given at 0.7580 (09/11/2016 low) has been broken. Next support lies at 0.7507 (13/10/2016 low). Expected to see another leg lower. • In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.



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EUR / CHF

Buying pressures are coming back.

• EUR/CHF's short-term selling pressures are, as expected, fading. Yet, the pair is still way into a medium-term bearish momentum which should not last long as the SNB is defending the franc. Expected to bounce back way above 1.0800. • In the longer term, the technical structure remains positive. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).



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EUR / JPY

Continued increase.

• EUR/JPY is trading above former resistance at 116.37 (02/09/2016). Hourly support lies at 114.02 (03/11/2016 low). Expected to go further higher but larger downside moves may happen. The momentum is anyway largely bullish. • In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. The road is now wide open towards strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low).



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EUR / GBP

Monitoring resistance area below 0.8600.

• EUR/GBP has broken support area given around 0.8857 (04/11/2016 low). Hourly resistance is given at 0.9047 (30/10/2016 high). Expected to see another downside move towards intermediate support at 0.8535 (19/09/2016 low). • In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading far above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.



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GOLD (in USD)

Slightly higher.

• Gold remains weak. Strong support can be found at 1199 (30/05/2016 low ). Expected to see renewed bullish pressures as the underlying bearish move seemed too strong for being the start of a real trend. • In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).




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SILVER (in USD)

Renewed buying pressures.

• Silver has totally reversed in a week. Hourly support at 17.31 (07/10/2016 low) and 17.09 (07/10/2016 low) have been broken. Expected to see further consolidation. The move is way too strong to be the start of a new downtrend. • In the long-term, the metal is now in an increasing uptrend. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).



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Crude Oil (in USD)

Short-squeeze.

• Crude oil has has bounced back after breaking key support at 42.55 (20/09/2016 low). The break of hourly support at 49.15 (10/10/2016 low) has signaled that deeper selling pressures were increasing. We maintain our bearish view towards 42.00. Time to reload bearish positions. • In the long-term, crude oil is now recovering from its sharp decline and the signs of recovery are now strong. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while strong resistance at 50.96 (09/10/2015 high) has been broken. Crude oil is holding way above its 200-Day Moving Average. Expected to reach 60 before year-end.



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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT - Microsoft...(24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment. 16 November 2016 DAILY TECHNICAL

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