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SPY (SP500 ETF) DAILY REPORT
It was the computer that projected the future without the messy biases and shortcomings of personal foresight .
Among the retail crowd, advisors tried to pound their chests and pretend they were better than everyone else and only
their method was correct. Real money knows the latter tends to know it is not true. Markets are so dynamic and
complex it is beyond consistent personal foresight. M. Armstrong
Subscription: 399$/year
Subscription info: [email protected]
All the following charts will be available as NinjaTrader plugin.
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Weekly observations:
Thursday , April 21:
- Swing model back full long.Tuesday , April 19:
- Update 20 days predicition chart. Monday action invalidated previous one.- Fixed witdh channels slope still up.- Still no change to the short side from the swing model.
Monday, April 18:
- The 20 days algorithm predicts a probable sideway movement over the next week. Not a clear bias.- Last week High Low trend side of swing model alerted from a potential change from long to short. The model still
long.
- NK momentum chart shows a divergence between price reaching previous highs and the nk momentum wellbelow previous levels.
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1.- 20 DAYS PRICE PREDICTION (BETA).
The following chart is generated by a machine learning algorithm based on 100+ parameters . It looks for similar pattern in the price
history of the SPY etf. Vertical axis represents % return from the close on Monday April, 18.
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Previous Update: Vertical axis represents % return from the close on Friday April, 8
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2.- ADAPTIVE PRICE CHANNEL.
The multi-year chart shows a central moving average line plus channel lines at a distance above and below, plus 200ma and 50ma.
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The charts shows the last 200 days of price, a central moving average line plus channel lines at a distance above and below, plus 200ma
and 50ma. A touch of the upper band or lower band itself does not constitute a buy or sell signal.
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3.- NK MOMENTUM (NKM).
Is a proprietary non-parametric momentum indicator that you can
t find elsewhere. NKM value itself does not constitute a buy or sell
signal. Blue positive momentum, red negative.
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4.- POTENTIAL TURNING POINTS.
Multi day high or low in relation with the bottom indicator above 0.7, can potentially be a turning point. Buying opportunities on pullbacks
or selling on retracements. Beware of breakouts as exceptions.
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5.- SWING TRADING MODEL.
The swing trading model is a combination o f two independent trend models: fractal peaks and highs-lows trend
5.1.- FRACTAL PEAKS TREND.
Trend indicator derived from fractal peaks lines. +1 uptrend. -1 downtrend. Money management is key, if you want to use the indicator in
isolation.
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5.2.- HIGHS-LOWS TREND.
A close above the highs or below the lows trend (after eliminating high frequencies) marks a point of change.
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6.3.- SWING MODEL.
Observations: (+2) Long. (+0.5) take partial profits. ( -2) Short. (-0.5) take partial profits.
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7.- FIXED WIDTH CHANNELS.
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
100
110
120
130
140
