28 November 2014 Daily Market Outlook 1 Please see disclaimer on last page Measured optimism for the future Expect the SET to trade up today, as solid local news provide upwards momentum in the absence of major market-moving factors from the global stage. Locally, the comments regarding the likely postponement of the elections offers little new news, while the FPO’s October figure offers good news. Globally, investors continue to eagerly anticipate the ECB’s further action. Local issues: Elections to be delayed, martial law to stay. Finance Minister Sommai said bringing back democracy any time before mid-2016 was unfeasible. Deputy PM and defense minister General Prawit echoed the view, saying “If everything goes out as planned and if the constitution is ready, we think elections will be held in 2016”. Both also hinted it may be a year before martial law is lifted/relaxed. (The Nation) Comment: As long as government moves ahead with infrastructure projects and maintains order the lengthening of the government’s rule should not adversely affect equities gain – foreign investors have repeatedly said what they balk at is not the lack of democracy but of certainty. NRC in favour of direct election of PM and Cabinet: The National Reform Council (NRC)'s subcommittee on political structure and independent agencies reached the initial conclusion at its meeting yesterday that they want direct election of the whole set of Cabinet members, including prime minister, a new parliamentary system that has never been seen before in Thailand. (The Nation) October GDP signals 4Q14 improvement. The Fiscal Policy Office says GDP during October has pricked up as expected and November looks to be even better, though it has left its targets for GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 as 1.4% and 4.1%, respectively. Consumer Confidence Index increased from 69.2 in September to 69.6 in October, though still below the 100 baseline. Sales of durable goods, which lagged behind this year, improved as well, with passenger-car sales up 1.4% (The Nation) Thailand-Vietnam trade US$15bn target reaffirmed. Yesterday during PM Prayut’s meeting with Vietnamese PM Nguyen Tan Dung in Vietnam, the two parties reaffirmed Thailand Research Department: Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041 Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056 Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094 Major Indices Close Chg %Chg SET 1,599.82 +8.8 +0.6 SET50 1,074.80 +5.7 +0.5 SET P/E (x) 19.0 SET P/BV (x) 2.3 SET Div. Yield (%) 2.8 Dow Jones N.A. N.A. N.A. S&P 500 N.A. N.A. N.A. NASDAQ N.A. N.A. N.A. UK 6,723.42 -5.8 -0.1 Germany 9,974.87 +59.3 +0.6 France 4,382.34 +8.9 +0.2 Japan 17,248.50 -135.1 -0.8 South Korea 1,982.09 +1.3 +0.1 Hong Kong 24,004.28 -107.7 -0.4 China 2,630.05 +25.7 +1.0 Taiwan 9,165.31 +42.9 +0.5 Singapore 3,340.96 -8.7 -0.3 Malaysia 1,829.91 -12.3 -0.7 Indonesia 5,145.31 +12.3 +0.2 Philippines 7,265.34 -91.3 -1.2 Trading Summary Buy Sell Net Institution 4,597 4,752 -155 Proprietary 4,376 3,994 382 Foreign 7,962 7,751 211 Individuals 33,121 33,559 -438 Total Trading Value 50,056 Btmn Most Active Value Value Close %Chg MTLS 8,196.6 12.00 0.8 JAS 1,946.2 7.90 -1.9 ITD 1,627.1 7.40 0.0 CGD 1,576.6 2.48 9.7 TRUE 1,421.3 12.10 2.5 Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg US Crude N.A. N.A. N.A. Brent Crude 72.58 -5.17 -6.65 Gold N.A. N.A. N.A. FX Rates Close Chg %Chg USD/THB 32.77 0.01 0.03 EUR/USD 1.25 0.00 -0.31 USD/JPY 117.71 -0.02 -0.02 USD/CNY 6.14 0.00 0.00 Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
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Daily Market Outlook · Spot gold was down 0.3% at US$1,193.85 an ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery were down US$3.80 an ounce at US$1,192.80. (Reuters) Crude oil
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28 November 2014
Daily Market Outlook
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
Measured optimism for the future
Expect the SET to trade up today, as solid local news provide
upwards momentum in the absence of major market-moving
factors from the global stage. Locally, the comments regarding
the likely postponement of the elections offers little new news,
while the FPO’s October figure offers good news. Globally,
investors continue to eagerly anticipate the ECB’s further
action.
Local issues:
Elections to be delayed, martial law to stay. Finance Minister
Sommai said bringing back democracy any time before mid-2016
was unfeasible. Deputy PM and defense minister General Prawit
echoed the view, saying “If everything goes out as planned and
if the constitution is ready, we think elections will be held in
2016”. Both also hinted it may be a year before martial law is
lifted/relaxed. (The Nation) Comment: As long as government
moves ahead with infrastructure projects and maintains
order the lengthening of the government’s rule should not
adversely affect equities gain – foreign investors have
repeatedly said what they balk at is not the lack of
democracy but of certainty.
NRC in favour of direct election of PM and Cabinet: The
National Reform Council (NRC)'s subcommittee on political
structure and independent agencies reached the initial
conclusion at its meeting yesterday that they want direct election
of the whole set of Cabinet members, including prime minister, a
new parliamentary system that has never been seen before in
Thailand. (The Nation)
October GDP signals 4Q14 improvement. The Fiscal Policy
Office says GDP during October has pricked up as expected and
November looks to be even better, though it has left its targets
for GDP growth for 2014 and 2015 as 1.4% and 4.1%,
respectively. Consumer Confidence Index increased from 69.2
in September to 69.6 in October, though still below the 100
baseline. Sales of durable goods, which lagged behind this year,
improved as well, with passenger-car sales up 1.4% (The Nation)
Thailand-Vietnam trade US$15bn target reaffirmed.
Yesterday during PM Prayut’s meeting with Vietnamese PM
Nguyen Tan Dung in Vietnam, the two parties reaffirmed
Thailand Research Department:
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,599.82 +8.8 +0.6
SET50 1,074.80 +5.7 +0.5
SET P/E (x) 19.0
SET P/BV (x) 2.3
SET Div. Yield (%) 2.8
Dow Jones N.A. N.A. N.A.
S&P 500 N.A. N.A. N.A.
NASDAQ N.A. N.A. N.A.
UK 6,723.42 -5.8 -0.1
Germany 9,974.87 +59.3 +0.6
France 4,382.34 +8.9 +0.2
Japan 17,248.50 -135.1 -0.8
South Korea 1,982.09 +1.3 +0.1
Hong Kong 24,004.28 -107.7 -0.4
China 2,630.05 +25.7 +1.0
Taiwan 9,165.31 +42.9 +0.5
Singapore 3,340.96 -8.7 -0.3
Malaysia 1,829.91 -12.3 -0.7
Indonesia 5,145.31 +12.3 +0.2
Philippines 7,265.34 -91.3 -1.2
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 4,597 4,752 -155
Proprietary 4,376 3,994 382
Foreign 7,962 7,751 211
Individuals 33,121 33,559 -438
Total Trading Value 50,056 Btmn Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
a commitment to the proposal put forth by the previous government to increase
bilateral trade from the estimated US$10bn for this year to US$15bn by 2020. Given
particular focus will be agricultural products such as rice and rubber. (Bangkok Post)
Comment: The US$5bn would represent a 2.22% increase in exports value and
help Thailand’s exports by some measure. If prices of rubber and rice could be
maintained at a higher level through cooperation with Vietnam, farmers would
also receive boost.
Establishment of physical gold exchange to be delayed. Establishment of physical
gold exchange remains uncertain after negotiations between the SET and gold
dealers ended in disagreement regarding management power.
BTS was not successfully in its bidding for a 30-year concession to operate the Beijing
Subway Line 16 in China as its bidding price was higher than that of Beijing MTR.
However, the company has gained international experience and will continue to seek
opportunity for participating in future bids. (SET)
TRUE’s TrueVisions plans to spend Bt10.5bn in annual advertising within three years,
from just Bt450mn this year. It plans to expand its subscriber base in the middle-to-
mass market. TrueVisions expects to double its revenue to Bt20bn within two years.
The strategy follows the success of True Corporation's mass-tier packages and
convergence policy resulted in 50% revenue growth. (The Nation, Bangkok Post)
TTA posted best earnings performance in 5 year by reporting a net profit of Bt1.0bn
in FY14 (Oct 13 - Sep 14), turning around from net loss last year. Revenue surged
16% YoY as key business units delivererd solid performance which pushed
normalized profit up 507% YoY to Bt1.0bn in FY14 from normalized loss Bt253mn in
FY13. (SET)
Global issues
Macroeconomics continue to take center stage, and weak price data from Europe
has created some optimism for Eurozone equities which in the absence of any major
news, look to continue today. (Reuters)
USA
The US stock and bond markets were closed on Thursday for a public holiday and
will reopen for a half-day session on Friday. (Reuters)
28 November 2014
Daily Market Outlook
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Europe
European stock markets moved higher, as the weak inflation concerns is seen as
forcing the ECB to move towards full blown QE that involves sovereign bond buying.
Despite the fall in stocks related to oil and gas - the German DAX extended its winning
streak to 11 sessions and rose 0.6% after better German jobs data and soft German
inflation data encouraged buying. (Reuters)
Inflation in Germany fell to its lowest level in five years in November. Preliminary
figures showed inflation harmonized to compare with other European countries
dropped to 0.5% from 0.7% in October, undershooting a consensus forecast of 0.6%.
On the month, the cost of living was unchanged using this measure. The final price
data is due to be released on December 11. (Reuters)
Preliminary euro zone inflation data, due later in the day, is expected to show the
annual rate slowing to 0.3% from 0.4%, according to a Reuters poll. The ECB
considers anything below 1% to be in its deflation "danger zone". (Reuters)
The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after data showed German inflation
sinking to its lowest since February 2010 in November, reinforcing bets the ECB will
ease monetary policy more aggressively. The euro fell back under US$1.25, falling
0.1% at US$1.2494. (Reuters)
European bond yields fall: The deflationary implications of falling oil prices weighed
on already depressed bond yields on Thursday. The 10-year German bund yield fell
below 0.70% for the first time ever, at the low 0.69%, before closing at 0.70%. The
falls in euro zone peripheral bond yields were even bigger - with the 10-year Spanish
bond yield falling 8 basis points to 1.90% and the 10-year Italian bond yield falling
10basis points to 2.06%. (Reuters)
Commodities
Gold eased on Thursday, hurt by a sharp drop in oil prices, strength in the dollar and
fresh outflows from bullion-backed funds, with traders cautious ahead of Swiss
referendum on central bank bullion assets on Sunday. A "yes" vote would force the
Swiss central bank to buy about 1,500 tonnes of gold in coming years. Spot gold was
down 0.3% at US$1,193.85 an ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery
were down US$3.80 an ounce at US$1,192.80. (Reuters)
Crude oil prices took a nose dive on Thursday after the OPEC failed to reach an
agreement to cut oil production. Brent Crude plunged 6.34% to US$72.82 a barrel,
after hitting a 4-year low at US$71.25. US crude for January plummeted US$4.79 to
close at US$68.90 after trading as low as US$67.75. It was the first time NYMEX
Crude traded below US$70 a barrel since 2010. (Reuters)
Other commodities were not severely impacted by sliding oil price on Thursday
as an upturn in economic sentiment in Europe was supported the prices. However, a
strong dollar is expected to cap gains. Three-month copper on the London Metal
Exchange, untraded at the close, was bid at US$6,555 a tonne, down 0.2%. Iron ore
surged 2.50% to US$69.70 a tonne. (Reuters)
28 November 2014
Daily Market Outlook
4
Please see disclaimer on last page
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
1 2 3 4 5
8 9 10 11 12
XD
CITY : 0.16 Bt
IRC : 0.6269 Bt
15 16 17 18 19
XD
UIC : 0.04728 Bt
December 2014
28 November 2014
CG Report
5
Please see disclaimer on last page
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2013.
ADVANC BTS GRAMMY MCOT PTT SC SSI TMBAOT CIMBT HANA MINT PTTEP SCB SSSC TNITYASIMAR CK HEMRAJ NKI PTTGC SCC SVI TOPBAFS CPF ICC NOBLE QH SCSMG SYMC TRCBANPU CPN INTUCH PAP RATCH SE-ED TCAP TRUEBAY CSL IRPC PG ROBINS SIM THAI TTWBBL DRT IVL PHOL RS SIS THCOM TVOBCP DTAC KBANK PR S&J SITHAI THRE UVBECL EASTW KKP PRANDA SAMART SNC TIP VGIBKI EGCO KTB PS SAMTEL SPALI TISCO WACOALBROOK ERW LPN PSL SAT SPI TKT
2S ASP CHOW GBX JUBILE LRH NMG PPP SINGER TCP TOG UACACAP AYUD CM GC KBS LST NSI PREB SIRI TF TPC UMIAF BEC CNT GFPT KCE MACO NWR PRG SKR TFD TPCORP UMSAHC BFIT CPALL GL KGI MAJOR OCC PT SMT TFI TPIPL UPAIT BH CSC GLOW KKC MAKRO OFM PYLON SNP THANA TRT UPOICAKP BIGC DCC GOLD KSL MBK OGC QTC SPCG THANI TRU UTAMANAH BJC DELTA GSTEL KWC MBKET OISHI RASA SPPT THIP TSC VIBHAAMARIN BLA DTC GUNKUL L&E MFC PB SABINA SSF TICON TSTE VIHAMATA BMCL ECL HMPRO LANNA MFEC PDI SAMCO STANLY TIPCO TSTH VNGAP BWG EE HTC LH MODERN PE SCCC STEC TK TTA VNTAPCO CCET EIC IFEC LHBANK MTI PF SCG SUC TLUXE TTCL YUASAAPCS CENTEL ESSO INET LHK NBC PJW SEAFCO SUSCO TMILL TUF ZMICOASIA CFRESH FE ITD LIVE NCH PM SFP SYNTEC TMT TWFPASK CGS FORTH JAS LOXLEY NINE PPM SIAM TASCO TNL TYM
A ASIA CITY EASON HTECH KASET MJD PL SF SVOA TMI UOBKHAAV BAT-3K CMR EMC HYDRO KC MK POST SGP SWC TNDT UPFAEC BCH CNS EPCO IFS KCAR MOONG PRECHA SIMAT SYNEX TNPC UWCAEONTS BEAUTY CPL F&D IHL KDH MPIC PRIN SLC TBSP TOPP VAROAFC BGT CRANE FNS ILING KTC MSC Q-CON SMIT TCCC TPAC VTEAGE BLAND CSP FOCUS INOX KWH NC QLT SMK TEAM TPP WAVEAH BOL CSR FPI IRC LALIN NIPPON RCI SOLAR TGCI TR WGAI BROCK CTW FSS IRCP LEE NNCL RCL SPC TIC TTI WINAJ BSBM DEMCO GENCO IT MATCH NTV ROJNA SPG TIES TVD WORKAKR CHARAN DNA GFM JMART MATI OSK RPC SRICHA TIW TVIALUCON CHUO DRACO GJS JMT MBAX PAE SCBLIF SSC TKS TWZANAN CI EA GLOBAL JTS MDX PATO SCP STA TMC UBISARIP CIG EARTH HFT JUTHA PRINC PICO SENA SUPER TMD UEC
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
28 November 2014
Contact
6
Please see disclaimer on last page
This report has been prepared by Asia Wealth Securities Company Limited (“AWS”). The information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but AWS makes no representation as to the accuracy and completeness of such information. AWS does not accept any liability for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of such information or opinions in this report. Before making your own independent decision to invest or enter into transaction, investors should study this report carefully and should review information relating. All rights are reserved. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any person in any manner for any purpose without permission of AWS. Investment in securities has risks. Investors are advised to consider carefully before making decisions.