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Daily Market Outlook 14 Oct 2016
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
AWS pays heartfelt tributes to our beloved King Thai shares look
set for a cautious trading session today after the announcement of
the passing of Thailand’s beloved King yesterday. Asian stock
markets this morning seem to take a breather after dismal trade
data from China rocked global bourses in the previous session.
Global investors are turning attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s
speech in Boston later today and US retail sales and consumer
confidence data also due today as the last chance to gauge if the
Fed will hike rates in December.
Pick of the day: TU (Bt20.60; BUY; AWS 17TP Bt25.00) Thai Union
PCL is a world class seafood producer whose great achievement in
recent years has been its successful inorganic expansion and we
believe this winning streak will continue going forward. TU will
also benefit markedly from the US dollar’s appreciation trend
against the baht. The company set a target to reach US$8bn in total
revenues by 2020, up from US$4bn this year, representing robust
growth of 25% p.a. Stripping out extra items in 2015, we estimate
TU’s normalized profit to surge 34% YoY in 2016 and 8% YoY in 2017.
This year we expect the company’s gross profit margin (GPM) to
improve to 16% and net profit margin (NPM) to reach 4-5% for the
whole year, up from a GPM of 15.8% and NPM of 4.4%
in 1H16. Of its total revenues, exports account for 92% and
domestic sales represent 8% while US dollar revenues account for
62% and euro revenues 30%. Therefore, TU will benefit when the US
dollar appreciates against the baht, as its revenues and profits in
baht will swell. The outlook for TU’s tuna and shrimp businesses is
stable for at least the next six months. We also expect more
interesting acquisitions on the horizon. Our 2017 target price of
Bt25.00, which is derived from a 3-year average of PER of 20x,
offers 21% upside. TU’s price pattern indicates a very strong
uptrend with a buy signal occurring in all of its three key charts,
namely daily, weekly and monthly. The next target price is Bt22.00
with a stop loss at Bt20.50. (Resistance: 20.90, 21.30, 21.90;
Support: 20.40, 20.00, 19.40) Local issue His Majesty King Bhumibol
Adulyadej passed away.
As announced by the Royal Household Bureau, His
Majesty King Bhumibol Adulyadej passed away peacefully
at Chalermphrakiet Building of Siriraj Hospital at 3.52pm
yesterday. (Bangkok Post)
To propose three double-track rail projects to the
cabinet in October. Transport Minister Arkom
Termpitayapaisit said he will submit a proposal for three
double-track rail projects to the cabinet in October,
including 148-km Lop Buri-Pak Nam Pho route worth
Bt24.8bn, 165-km Nakhon Pathom-Hua Hin route worth
Bt20.0bn, and 90-km Hua Hin-Prachuap Khiri Khan route
worth Bt10.3bn. (InfoQuest)
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,412.82 +6.6 +0.5
SET50 906.77 +10.5 +1.2
SET P/E (x) 20.7
SET P/BV (x) 1.8
SET Div. Yield (%) 3.3
Dow Jones 18,098.94 -45.3 -0.2
S&P 500 2,132.55 -6.6 -0.3
NASDAQ 5,213.33 -25.7 -0.5
UK 6,977.74 -46.3 -0.7
Germany 10,414.07 -109.0 -1.0
France 4,405.17 -47.1 -1.1
Japan 16,774.24 -65.8 -0.4
South Korea 2,015.44 -18.3 -0.9
Hong Kong 23,031.30 -375.8 -1.6
China 3,061.35 +2.8 +0.1
Taiwan 9,219.17 -33.4 -0.4
Singapore 2,805.48 -8.2 -0.3
Malaysia 1,665.02 -2.0 -0.1
Indonesia 5,340.40 -24.2 -0.5
Philippines 7,312.18 -117.6 -1.6
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 15,143 5,426 9,716
Proprietary 10,758 13,255 -2,497
Foreign 31,227 31,801 -574
Individuals 46,695 53,340 -6,645
Total Trading Value 103,823 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
AOT 6,891 362.00 1.7 PTT 4,899 338.00 0.3 CPALL 3,949 61.75 4.7
KBANK 3,638 187.00 2.7 SCB 3,547 142.00 1.4
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 50.44 +0.3 +0.5
Brent Crude 52.03 +0.2 +0.4
Gold 1257.60 +3.8 +0.3
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 35.40 -0.3 -0.7
EUR/USD 1.11 +0.0 +0.5
USD/JPY 103.68 -0.5 -0.5
USD/CNY 6.72 +0.0 +0.1
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Technical picks (support & resistance)
IVL (S: 23.10, R: 31.50); BEM (S: 5.90, R: 7.70); SCB (S:
133.00, R: 151.50); SET (S: 1,339, R: 1,487)
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090
Mrs. Vajiralux Sanglerdsillapachai (No. 17385) Tel: 02 680
5077
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun, CFA, FRM (No.49234) Tel: 02 680
5094
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Daily Market Outlook 14 Oct 2016
2
Please see disclaimer on last page
Global issues Investors will have their last chance to gauge
whether the Fed will tighten
monetary policy through a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in
Boston and
US indicators due later in the day, including September retail
sales and the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. (Reuters)
US Treasury prices extended earlier gains on Thursday following
solid
demand at a US$12bn auction of 30-year government bonds, the
last part of
this week's US$56bn in coupon-bearing supply. Benchmark 10-year
Treasury
notes were last up 13/32 in price for a yield of 1.731%, down 5
basis points from
late on Wednesday, while the 30-year bond was nearly 1 point
higher with a
yield of 2.465%, down over 4 basis points on the day.
(Reuters)
The dollar tumbled from a seven-month high on Thursday, as risk
appetite
took a turn for the worse after soft Chinese trade data spooked
a market that is
expecting an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve by
the end of the
year. The dollar index slipped 0.3% to 97.695, after notching a
seven-month
peak earlier in the session. (Reuters)
USA Wall Street shares edged down on Thursday dragged down by
financial
shares and weak Chinese economic data. However, a late-day
rebound in oil
prices limited the day's losses. Financials, which have been
under pressure
following negative news on Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, were
down ahead
of quarterly results due Friday from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase
and
Citigroup. (Reuters)
US jobless claims held at a 43-year low last week, pointing to
sustained labor
market strength. The claims were unchanged at 246,000 last week,
the lowest
reading since November 1973. The figure for the prior week was
revised to
show 3,000 fewer applications received than previously reported.
It was the
84th consecutive week that the claims were below the 300,000
threshold, which
is associated with robust labor market conditions. That is the
longest stretch
since 1970. Economists had the claims rising to 254,000 in the
latest week.
(Reuters) Europe European shares fell on Thursday as
underwhelming Chinese trade data
knocked down mining stocks while Standard Life and Aegon slid on
broker
downgrades. (Reuters)
ECB likely to delay actions till December: The ECB will meet
next week on
20 Oct and could discuss changes to the bank's bond-buying
programme.
However, they may put off any decision until their next meeting
in December
awaiting the rate decisions of the Fed. (Reuters)
Asia Disappointing China trade data: China's September exports
fell 10% YoY, far
worse than expected, while imports unexpectedly shrank after
picking up in
August. The disappointing trade figures pointed to weaker demand
both at
home and abroad. China's exports had been expected to fall 3%,
slightly worse
than in August. Imports shrank 1.9%, dashing hopes for a second
rise in a row.
Imports had unexpectedly grown 1.5% in August, the first
expansion in nearly
two years. That left China with a trade surplus of US$41.99bn
for the month,
the lowest in six months, and against market expectation for a
surplus of
US$53bn. (Reuters)
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in China rose 4.2% YoY to
609.03bn yuan
(US$95.09bn) in the first nine months of this year, the Commerce
Ministry said
on Thursday. In September, FDI rose 1.2% YoY to 60.2bn yuan
(US$9.21bn).
(Reuters)
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Daily Market Outlook 14 Oct 2016
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Japanese households' inflation expectations weakened for the
fifth
straight quarter to a nearly four-year low in 3Q16, the BOJ’s
survey showed,
a sign its heavy money printing is failing to boost stagnant
economic growth.
The ratio of households which expect prices to rise a year from
now stood at
65.1% in September, down from 72.4% in June, to hit its lowest
since December
2012. (Reuters)
Commodities Oil prices steadied on Thursday, as a US government
report of larger-than-
expected draws in diesel and gasoline helped prices rebound from
losses
incurred when data showed the first crude inventory build in six
weeks was
much larger than expected. Brent crude settled up 22 cents
(+0.4%) at
US$52.03 per barrel. US crude ended up 26 cents (+0.55) at
US$50.44.
(Reuters)
US refined products draws vs crude build: The US EIA said crude
stocks
swelled 4.9mn barrels in the week ended 7 Oct. It was the first
crude build since
the end of August and was far above a 700,000-barrel rise
forecast by analysts.
However, the same report showed a drop of 3.7mn barrels for
distillates, which
include diesel and heating oil, and 1.9mn barrels decline for
gasoline. Analysts
had expected distillates to draw by just 1.6mn barrels and
gasoline to decline
by 1.5mn. (Reuters)
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as the dollar declined and
after world
shares slipped following renewed worries about China's economy.
Spot gold
was up 0.3% at US$1,257.83 an ounce while US gold futures
climbed 0.4% to
US$1,259.10 an ounce. (Reuters)
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Daily Market Outlook 14 Oct 2016
4
Please see disclaimer on last page
Date Regions
11-Oct-16 EU
11-Oct-16 US
11-Oct-16 JP
12-Oct-16 US
12-Oct-16 EU
13-Oct-16 EU
14-Oct-16 CN
14-Oct-16 US
14-Oct-16 US
14-Oct-16 US Fed's Yellen Speech
Economic Indicators
ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Oct)
Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Oct)
Labor Market Conditions Index (Sep)
FOMC Minutes
Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Aug)
EU Extraordinary Economic Summit
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Sep)
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Sep)
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
3 4 5 6 7XD
TF
XD
MODERN
NSI
SPA
TCAP
TCAP-P
10 11 12 13 14XD
PRG
17 18 19 20 21XD
LHSC
QHPF
XD
MBK
XD
JMART
24 25 26 27 28
31
Oct-16
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5
Please see disclaimer on last page
CG Rating
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG
Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in
2015.
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of
Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made
pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange
Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for
Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by
a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the
perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not
based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the
Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the
survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities
Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey
result.
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EGCO
GRAMMYHANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT
MINTMONO NKI PHOL PPS PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS
SAMARTSAMTEL SAT SC SCB SCC SE-ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO TKT
TMBTOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP BMCL BOL BROOKBWG
CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTADEMCO ECF
EE ERW GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICCICHI INET
IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK MC MEGAMFEC NBC NCH NINE
NSI NTV OCC OGC OISHI OTO PAP PDI PEPG PJW PM PPP PR PRANDA PREB PT
PTG Q-CON QH RS S&JSABINA SAMCO SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS
SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT SNPSPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC SYMC
SYNTEC TASCO TBSPTCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI THIP THRE THREL
TICON TIP TIPCO TKTKS TMI TMILL TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP
TRC TRU TRUETSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWPC UAC UT UVVNT
WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICOVNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH AMARIN AP APCOAQUA AS
ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHIBKD BTNC CBG CGD
CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSCCSP CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON
ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE FOCUS FORTHFPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL
GLAND GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECHIEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP ITD JSP JTS
JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGIKKC KTIS KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT
LIVE LST M MAJOR MAKROMATCH MATI MBKET M-CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK
MODERN MOONG MPG MSC MTIMTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT OCEAN PACE PATO PB
PCA PCSGH PDGPF PICO PL PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT
RCIRCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN SCP SEAOIL
SIRISKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY
STPISUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI
TICTIW TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI UP UPFUPOIC
UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN XO
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
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6
Please see disclaimer on last page
CG Rating
ข้อมูล Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator ของบริษัทจดทะเบียน
ระดบั 1ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT-3K
BIG BJCBLISS BMCL BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH CSC CSPCTW
DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS FSMART GIFT GLANDGRAND GUNKUL
HFT HTECH IHL ILINK ITD JSP KDH KTIS KTP LEE LSTMAJOR MATCH MAX
M-CHAI MDX MIDA ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL NWR OHTLPICO PK PL PPM PRAKIT
PRECHA PRIN PSTC PYLON RAM RICH RS SANKOSAUCE SAWAD SAWANG SCN
SEAFCO SF SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPGSPPT SPVI STA STAR
SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ TCOAT THTKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY
TRC TRUBB TSE TTA TTI TTL TTTMTWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UTP UVAN VARO
VI VIBHA VIH VTEWG
ระดบั 22S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT BH
BKDBLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE FNS FVC GEL GLOBALHEMRAJ
IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX MMALEE MBK
MBKET MEGA MK MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PBPCA PRINC QH ROCK
RPC S&J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKONSUSCO TAKUNI TEAM TF
TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU TRUETSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ
UWC VNG WIIK WIN XO
ระดบั 3AABC ACAP ADVANC AEC AGE AH AIE AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE
ASASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN CHO
CHOTICM CNT COL CPALL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET DNA DTAC EAECF
EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFECINOX INSURE
IRC JAS JTS JUBILE KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKROMC MCOT MFC MFEC
MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC NDR NINE NMG NSINTV OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG
PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB PSQLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO
SCCC SCG SEAOIL SE-ED SENA SINGERSITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI
SRICHA SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMCSYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI
THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TNL TPCORPTMILL TMT TSTE TSTH TTCL TU
TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHAZMICO
ระดบั 3BAAV AHC AI AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BECL BJCHI
BUICGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON EPG
F&DFANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY HYDRO IRCP IT
JCTKCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK
NPKNUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTLQ-CON
QTC RCI S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIMSLP SMT SPA
SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA T TAE TBSPTCC TFD TGCI TGPRO
THANA THIP TIW TK TMW TNDT TOPP TPC TPCHTPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS
UEC UMI UP UPF UT UV VPOWAVE WINNER YUASA
ระดบั 4ASP BAFS BANPU BAY BBL BKI BLA CIMBT CNS CSL DCC DRT
DTCEASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK
KCEKGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNCSNP
SSF SSSC TCAP THCOM TISCO TIMB TMD TNITY TOG
ระดบั 5BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT SCC THANI TOP
ไม่เปิดเผยหรือไม่มีนโยบายA ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO
CPR CRANE EICFER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MBAX MCS METCO NEW
NEWS NYTPAE PDG PERM PMTA POST RCL RICHY ROH S SIMAT TCB TR TSFTVT
WORKหมายเหตุระดบั 1 : มนีโยบายระดบั 2 : ประกาศเจตนารมณ์ระดบั 3 :
มมีาตรการป้องกนั ซึ่งทัง้ 2 กรณี
ถอืเป็นผลการประเมนิในระดบัเดยีวกนั
3A : บรษิทัมกีารประกาศเจตนารมณ์เขา้ร่วมโครงการ CAC หรอืภาค3B :
บรษิทัมคี ามน่ั และนโยบายของบรษิทั
แต่มไิดป้ระกาศเจตนารมณ์เขา้ร่วมโครงการ CAC หรอืภาค
ระดบั 4 : ไดร้บัการรบัรองระดบั 5 : ขยายผลสูผู่ท้
ีเ่กีย่วขอ้ง
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Please see disclaimer on last page
Contact
Branch Address Phone Fax
Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road,
Lumphini,
Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom
Rd.,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1
Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21
Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328
Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th
Flr.,
Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,
Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
02-884-7367
Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd
Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2300 02-8353006
Chaengwattana 2
9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd
Flr.,
Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2388 02-119-2399
Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7
Bangna-Trad
Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang
District, Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District,
Chonburi
20000
038-053-858 038-784-090
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung
Sub-
District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591