DAILY I FOREX REPORT 15 TH FEBRUARY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
DAILY I FOREX REPORT 15
TH
FEBRUARY 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 9752199966
Euro May Fall As Deepening Recession Drives ECB Easing Bets
Dollar At Risk Below 2012 High, S&P 500 Looking Top-Heavy
Euro Sets a 2-Week Low as the Euro-Zone Recession Continues
THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone GDP declines 0.6% in Q4, more than expected -> ECB predicts a recovery later in 2013 -> Euro declines to a 2-week low
The Euro-zone economy contracted for the third straight quarter in Q4, thereby extending
the area’s technical recession. The gross domestic product declined 0.6% over the quarter (seasonally adjusted), the highest quarterly decline in nearly 4-years, and the decline was worse than an expected 0.4% contraction and Q3’s 0.1% decline. The Euro-zone GDP dropped 0.9% from Q4 2011 according to a Eurostat initial estimate.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD
BELOW 1.3320 tgs
1.3305/1.3290 sl
1.3340
BUY USDJPY ABOVE
93.71 tgt
93.86/94.06 SL 93.57
SELL GBPUSD
BELOW 1.5492 tgt
1.5478/1.5464 SL
1.5506
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.3445
HIGH: 1.3455
LOW: 1.3320
CLOSE: 1.3330
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND : BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>. 0002(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 70(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 93.24
HIGH: 93.71
LOW: 92.13
CLOSE: 93.45
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD => 0005( BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>55(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5532
HIGH: 1.5543
LOW: 1.5492
CLOSE: 1.5506
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD => .-0011( BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 27(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 0.8656
HIGH: 0.8666
LOW: 0.8586
CLOSE: 0.8592
EURGBP LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
MACD =>.0017(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>81(BEARISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ECONOMIC CALENDER
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 80.0700
HIGH: 80.6210
LOW: 80.0620
CLOSE: 80.5920
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
TREND: BULLISH
STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS
MACD =>0.045(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI =>75(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Mon
Feb 11 00:30
AUD Home Loans (DEC)
Medium -1.5% 0.0% -0.7%
00:30
AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (DEC)
Low -2.7%
0.5%
00:30
AUD Investment Lending (DEC)
Low -2.4%
-3.2%
13:30
EUR Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
High
21:45
NZD NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.4%
21:45
NZD NZ Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
0.3% 0.3%
23:50
JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.3% 2.2%
23:50
JPY Japan Money
Stock M2+CD (YoY) (JAN)
Low
2.6% 2.6%
Tue Feb 12
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
3.2%
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0%
00:01
GBP RICS House Price Balance (JAN)
Medium
1% 0.0%
00:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (JAN)
Medium
3
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card
Purchases (DEC) Low
$A21.8B
00:30
AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (DEC)
Low
$A49.5B
00:30
AUD NAB Business Conditions (JAN)
Low
-4
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (JAN P)
Medium
-27.5%
08:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.3% -0.4%
08:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY)
(JAN)
Medium
-0.3%
08:15
CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.3% -0.2%
08:15
CHF CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.1%
09:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
High
2.4% 2.4%
09:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
High
2.7% 2.7%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
3.2% 3.1%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
2.0% 2.2%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
1.4% 1.5%
09:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-0.5% 0.5%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a.
(MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2% -0.1%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.1% 0.0%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.0% 0.3%
09:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.8% -0.2%
09:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (DEC)
Low
2.0% 2.1%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index
(MoM) (JAN) Low
-0.5% 0.5%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (JAN)
Low
3.1% 3.0%
09:30
GBP Retail Price Index (JAN)
Low
245.6 246.8
12:00
USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)
Low
7.4%
12:00
USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)
Low
4.1%
12:30
USD NFIB Small Business Optimism
(JAN)
Low
89 88
15:00
USD JOLTs Job Openings (DEC)
Low
3676
16:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska
Low
19:00
USD Monthly Budget Statement (JAN)
Medium
-$2.00B -$27.41B
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (FEB)
Medium
0.6%
23:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)
Low
100.6
23:50
JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
0.7% -0.3%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price
Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-0.3% -0.6%
23:50
JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.2% 0.3%
Wed Feb 13
00:30
USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Economic Outlook in Stanford
Low
00:30
USD Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economics in Lancaster
Low
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.0% 1.0%
08:15
CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0% 0.1%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-2.4% -3.7%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.2% -0.3%
10:30
GBP Bank of England Inflation Report
High
12:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 8)
Low
13:30
USD Advance Retail
Sales (JAN) High
0.1% 0.5%
13:30
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (JAN)
Medium
0.1% 0.3%
13:30
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JAN)
Low
0.4% 0.6%
13:30
USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (JAN)
Low
0.2% 0.6%
13:30
USD Import Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-1.5%
13:30
USD Import Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.8% -0.1%
15:00
USD Business Inventories (DEC)
Medium
0.3% 0.3%
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 8)
Low
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 8)
Low
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 8)
Low
15:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB
8)
Low
16:10
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Economy at Arkansas State University
Low
21:30
NZD Business NZ Performance of
Manufacturing Index (JAN)
Medium
50.1
21:45
NZD Food Prices (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.2%
23:50
JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
High
0.0% -0.9%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
High
0.1% -0.9%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (4Q P)
High
0.4% -3.5%
23:50
JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (4Q P)
Low
-0.5% -0.8%
Thu Feb 14
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (FEB 14)
High
-0.2% 0.10%
CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-0.2% -4.5%
00:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)
Medium
2.0%
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)
Low
3.1%
00:00
NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)
Low
118.3
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN)
Low
-3.0%
06:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (4Q P)
Medium
0.5% 0.0%
06:30
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
Low
-0.5% 0.1%
07:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product
w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
High
0.9%
07:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
High
0.4%
07:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)
Medium
0.2% 0.2%
09:00
EUR ECB Publishes Monthly Report
High
09:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)
Medium
-2.4%
09:00
EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)
Low
-0.2%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a.
(YoY) (4Q A)
High
-0.6%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (4Q A)
Medium
-0.1%
13:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 10)
Medium
360K 366K
13:30
USD Continuing Claims (FEB 3)
Low
3200K 3224K
15:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 8)
Low
-118
21:45
NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
-0.4%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8)
Low
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 8)
Low
¥419.5B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 8)
Low
Fri Feb 15
USD Revisions of Producer Price Index
Low
01:35
CNY MNI February Flash Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
02:00
NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (JAN)
Low
64.0%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC F) (DEC F)
Medium
-7.8%
04:30
JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F)
Low
2.5%
04:30
JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (DEC F) (DEC F)
Low
-0.2%
05:00
USD G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in Russia
Medium
09:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
0.9% 0.3%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
1.6% 1.1%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.5% -0.1%
09:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.5% -0.3%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros)
(DEC)
Low
10.6B 11.0B
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)
Low
12.0B 13.7B
13:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (FEB)
Low
-2 -7.78
13:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-0.5% 1.7%
14:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (DEC)
Medium
$52.3B
14:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)
Medium
-0.5%
14:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (DEC)
Low
$27.8B
14:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (JAN)
Medium
0.2% 0.8%
14:15
USD Industrial Production (JAN)
Medium
0.2% 0.3%
14:15
USD Capacity Utilization (JAN)
Low
78.9% 78.8%
14:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (FEB P)
High
74.5 73.8
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