DAILY I FOREX REPORT 23 RD MAY 2013 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
Jun 12, 2015
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
US Dollar At Risk Before Bernanke Testimony, FOMC Minutes
GBP/USD Slumps Under $1.5100 as April Retail Sales Underwhelm
THE TAKEAWAY: GBP Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (APR) > -1.4% versus +0.1% expected, from -0.7% (revised higher from -0.8%) (m/m), +0.2% versus +1.8% expected, from +0.4% (y/y) > Retail Sales w/ Auto Fuel (APR) > -1.3% versus +0.1% expected, from -0.6% (revised higher from -0.7%) (m/m), +0.5% versus +2.0% expected, from -0.5% (y/y) > Bank of England May meeting Minutes show split MPC over more QE > GBPUSD BEARISH
Despite a strong 1Q‟13 GDP report, it appears that the British economy is losing steam, in thanks to a slowdown in consumption trends. According to the Office for National Statistics, the slowdown in Retail Sales can be wholly attributed to a slump in food prices in the early-2Q, exacerbated by what‟s being described as „poor weather.‟ Regardless, in light of disinflating price pressures (per the April CPI report), the slowdown in sales can be viewed as a shift towards slower growth once more.
Concurrently, the Bank of England releases the Minutes from its May meeting as well earlier, noting the Monetary Policy Committee‟s concern for inflation (per the majority‟s perspective, as outgoing Governor Mervyn King was outvoted once more, 6-3). “There was tentative evidence that measures of medium-term inflation expectations were becoming more sensitive to short- term news in inflation...Financial markets were not expecting further asset purchases at this meeting and might, at the margin, reassess the committee‟s tolerance of elevated inflation should additional stimulus be injected.” If inflation continues to fall, incoming BoE Governor Mark Carney may be forced to implement additional policy measures, which would be GBP-negative.
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW
1.2900 TGT 1.2880/1.2860
SL 1.2930
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 103.00
TGT 103.20/103.50 SL
102.70
SELL GBPUSD BELOW
1.5070 TGT 1.5020/1.5000
SL 1.5100
HEADLINES
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.2920 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.2945 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.2903 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.2939 MACD =>-.0004(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 68(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 102.43 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 102.99 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 102.35 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 102.85 MACD =>.04(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 62(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 1.5160 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD
HIGH: 1.5174 TREND: BEARISH
LOW: 1.5074 STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
CLOSE: 1.5101 MACD =>-.00013(BEARISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 31(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 00.8522 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 00.8577 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 00.8519 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 00.8574 MACD =>.00005(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 85(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
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ANALYSIS
OPEN: 83.7790 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD
HIGH: 83.8870 TREND: BULLISH
LOW: 83.6760 STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
CLOSE: 83.8090 MACD =>.0291(BULLISH SIGNAL)
RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun May 19
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (APR)
Medium 56.1
55.6
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Low 2.1%
2.1%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5%
0.4%
Mon May 20
JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report for May
Medium
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.8%
48.4%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (MAR F)
Low 93.8
93.3
05:00
JPY Leading Index (MAR F)
Medium 97.9
97.6
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -0.5%
3.9%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low 2.1%
6.4%
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)
Medium -23.6%
-24.1%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low -2.6%
-0.4%
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (APR)
Medium -0.53
-0.23
17:00
USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy in Chicago
Low
Tue
May 21 00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)
Medium 0.1%
0.3%
01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - May Minutes
High
03:00
NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation (2Q)
Medium 2.06%
2.17%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.4%
-0.3%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (APR)
Medium 4.0%
3.6%
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
-0.4% 0.6%
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)
Low
1.7%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) (APR)
Low
-0.1% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.1% 0.4%
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)
Low
9.9%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
-1.3% -0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.2% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.4% 2.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium
0.9% 1.3%
08:30
GBP DCLG UK House Prices (YoY) (MAR)
Low
2.0% 1.9%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Medium
0.4% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.6% 2.8%
08:30
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
High
2.3% 2.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (APR)
Low
249.9 248.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.1% 3.3%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (APR)
Low
3.0% 3.2%
15:30
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt
Low
17:00
USD Fed's Dudley Speaks in New York
Low
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (APR)
Low
1220
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (APR)
Medium
-¥637.3B -¥362.4B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade
Low
-¥605.8B -¥922.0B
Balance (Yen) (APR)
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (APR)
Low
5.5 1.1
Wed May 22
JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (MAY 22)
High
0.10% 0.10%
JPY BOJ Kuroda Press Conference After Policy Meeting
High
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (MAY)
Medium
-5.1%
00:30
AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)
Low
104.9
01:00
AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1%
04:00
JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Medium
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
16.3B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (MAR)
Low
12.1B
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
High
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.8%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium
1.8% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (APR)
Low
0.1% -0.7%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (APR)
Medium
2.0% -0.5%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
-4.0B 31.3B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (APR)
Medium
8.5B 15.1B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (APR)
Medium
8.8B 16.7B
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (MAY)
Low
-17 -25
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (MAY)
Low
5 8
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 17)
Low
-7.3%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.2% 0.8%
12:30
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.2% 0.7%
14:00
USD Fed's Bernanke Testifies on Economic Outlook
High
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (APR)
Low
4.99M 4.92M
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.3% -0.6%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
-624K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
575K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 17)
Low
2588K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 17)
Low
2300K
18:00
USD Fed Releases Minutes from Apr 30 - May 1 FOMC Meeting
High
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (APR)
Low
6.9 5.5
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥186.4B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Medium
¥19.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
-¥413.5B
Thu May 23
01:00
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAY)
Medium
2.20%
01:45
LIVE
CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (MAY)
Medium
50.4 50.4
05:00
JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for May (Table)
Medium
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY P)
Low
44.8 44.4
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY P)
Low
44.5 44.3
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
48.5 48.1
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY
Medium
50.0 49.6
A)
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY A)
Medium
47.0 46.7
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 47.0
08:00
LIVE
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (MAY A)
Medium
47.2 46.9
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
High
0.3% 0.3%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P)
High
0.6% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Private Consumption (1Q P)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
08:30
GBP Government Spending (1Q P)
Low
0.2% 0.6%
08:30
GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
Low
0.3% -0.2%
08:30
GBP Exports (1Q P) Low
-1.0% -1.6%
08:30
GBP Imports (1Q P) Low
-0.9% -1.0%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
Low
-0.8%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)
Medium
0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (MoM) (MAR)
Low
0.1% 0.8%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (MAR)
Low
0.6% 0.1%
10:05
USD Fed's Bullard to Speak on Monetary Policy in London
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 18)
Medium
346K 360K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (MAY 17)
Low
3000K 3009K
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (MAY)
Medium
52
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
Medium
0.80% 0.70%
13:00
USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Low
1.40%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (MAY A)
Medium
-21.8 -22.3
14:00
USD New Home Sales (APR)
Low
425K 417K
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)
Medium
1.90% 1.50%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 17)
Low
99
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (MAY)
Low
-5 -5
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
480M 718M
22:45
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
4.06B 4.42B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Low
3.60B 3.70B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 17)
Low
¥878.8B
Fri May 24
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
Medium
0.1% 0.1%
01:35
CNY MNI May Flash Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
02:55
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speech at Nikkei Conference
Low
04:00
USD Revisions: New Home Sales
Low
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-0.2% -0.2%
06:00
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
High
-1.4% -1.4%
06:00
EUR German Domestic Demand (1Q)
Low
0.1% 0.2%
06:00
EUR German Exports (1Q)
Low
-0.6% -2.0%
06:00
EUR German Capital Investment (1Q)
Low
-0.7% -0.7%
06:00
EUR German Government Spending (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.4%
06:00
EUR German Construction Investment (1Q)
Low
-1.2% -0.1%
06:00
EUR German Imports (1Q)
Low
-0.9% -0.6%
06:00
EUR German Private Consumption (1Q)
Low
0.3% 0.1%
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN) (JUN)
Medium
6.2 6.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)
Medium
104.4 104.4
08:00
EUR German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)
Medium
107.2 107.2
08:00
EUR German IFO - Expectations (MAY)
Medium
101.6 101.6
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)
Medium
32800 31227
12:30
LIVE
USD Durable Goods Orders (APR)
High
1.7% -5.7%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (APR)
Medium
0.5% -1.4%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.5% 0.2%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (APR)
Low
0.3%
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (APR)
Medium
-380M -525M
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