D7 dell analysis

1

Financial Statement AnalysisFinancial Statement AnalysisCurriculum designed for use with the Iowa Electronic Markets

by

Cynthia J. BrownMarilyn M. DuttonThomas A. Rietz

2

Financial Statement Analysis: Financial Statement Analysis: Lecture OutlineLecture Outline Review of Financial Statements Ratios

– Types of Ratios– Examples

The DuPont Method Ratios and Growth Summary

– Strengths– Weaknesses– Ratios and Forecasting

3

Stock PriceStock Price

Risk ofRisk ofCashflowsCashflows

Timing of Timing of CashflowsCashflows

ExpectedExpectedCashflowsCashflows

Stock PriceStock Price

Market Market ConditionsConditions

NPVNPVMVAMVAEVAEVA

4

Financial AnalysisFinancial Analysis

Assessment of the firm’s past, present and future financial conditions

Done to find firm’s financial strengths and weaknesses

Primary Tools:– Financial Statements– Comparison of financial ratios to past,

industry, sector and all firms

5

Financial StatementsFinancial Statements

Balance Sheet Income Statement Cashflow Statement Statement of Retained Earnings

6

Sources of DataSources of Data

Annual reports– Via mail, SEC or company websites

Published collections of data– e.g., Dun and Bradstreet or Robert Morris

Investment sites on the web– Examples

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor http://www.marketguide.com

7

The Main IdeaThe Main Idea

Value for the firm comes from cashflows Cashflows can be calculated as:

(Revt - Costt - Dept)x(1-) + Dept

—OR— (Revt - Costt)x(1-) + xDept

—OR— Revtx(1-) - Costtx(1-) + xDept

8

Review: Major Balance Sheet Review: Major Balance Sheet ItemsItems

Assets Current assets:

– Cash & securities

– Receivables

– Inventories Fixed assets:

– Tangible assets

– Intangible assets

Liabilities and Equity Current liabilities:

– Payables

– Short-term debt Long-term

liabilities Shareholders'

equity

9

An Example: Dell An Example: Dell Abbreviated Balance SheetAbbreviated Balance Sheet Assets:

– Current Assets: $7,681.00

– Non-Current Assets: $3,790.00

– Total Assets: $11,471.00 Liabilities:

– Current Liabilities: $5,192.00

– LT Debt & Other LT Liab.: $971.00

– Equity: $5,308.00

– Total Liab. and Equity: $11,471.00

10

Review: Major Income Review: Major Income Statement ItemsStatement Items Gross Profit = Sales - Costs of Goods Sold EBITDA

= Gross Profit - Cash Operating Expenses EBIT = EBDIT - Depreciation - Amortization EBT = EBIT - Interest NI or EAT = EBT- Taxes Net Income is a primary determinant of the

firm’s cashflows and, thus, the value of the firm’s shares

11

An Example: DellAn Example: DellAbbreviated Income StatementAbbreviated Income StatementSales $25,265.00Costs of Goods Sold -$19,891.00Gross Profit $5,374.00Cash operating expense -$2,761.00EBITDA 2,613.00Depreciation & Amortization -$156.00Other Income (Net) -$6.00EBIT $2,451.00Interest -$0.00EBT $2,451.00Income Taxes -$785.00Special Income/Charges -$194.00Net Income (EAT) $1,666.00

12

Objectives of Ratio AnalysisObjectives of Ratio Analysis Standardize financial information for

comparisons Evaluate current operations Compare performance with past

performance Compare performance against other

firms or industry standards Study the efficiency of operations Study the risk of operations

13

Rationale Behind Ratio Rationale Behind Ratio AnalysisAnalysis A firm has resources It converts resources into profits through

– production of goods and services– sales of goods and services

Ratios– Measure relationships between resources and

financial flows– Show ways in which firm’s situation deviates from

Its own past Other firms The industry All firms-

14

Types of RatiosTypes of Ratios Financial Ratios:

– Liquidity Ratios Assess ability to cover current obligations

– Leverage Ratios Assess ability to cover long term debt obligations

Operational Ratios:– Activity (Turnover) Ratios

Assess amount of activity relative to amount of resources used

– Profitability Ratios Assess profits relative to amount of resources used

Valuation Ratios: Assess market price relative to assets or earnings

15

Current Ratio:

Quick (Acid Test) Ratio:

Liquidity Ratio Examples: DellLiquidity Ratio Examples: Dell

16

Ratio Comparison: Current RatioRatio Comparison: Current Ratio

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Cu

rren

t R

atio

Dell 2.08 1.66 1.45 1.72 1.48

Industry 1.80 1.80 1.90 1.60

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

17

Debt Ratio:

Leverage Ratio Examples: Leverage Ratio Examples: DellDell

18

Ratio Comparison: Debt RatioRatio Comparison: Debt Ratio

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Deb

t R

atio

Dell 54.70% 73.07% 69.70% 66.25% 53.73%

Industry 62.96% 60.00% 52.38% 62.96%

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

19

Return on Assets (ROA):

Return on Equity (ROE):

Profitability Ratio Examples: Profitability Ratio Examples: DellDell

20

Profitability Ratio Examples: Profitability Ratio Examples: DellDell Net Profit Margin:

Retention Ratio

21

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

RO

E

Dell 28.13% 64.27% 73.01% 62.90% 31.39%

Industry 22.30% 30.60% 25.50% 18.00%

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Ratio Comparison: ROERatio Comparison: ROE

22

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

RO

A

Dell 12.66% 17.31% 22.12% 21.23% 14.52%

Industry 6.80% 10.90% 7.20% 5.70%

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Ratio Comparison: ROARatio Comparison: ROA

23

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Pro

fit

Mar

gin

Dell 5.14% 6.68% 7.66% 8.00% 6.59%

Industry 3.40% 4.74% 3.79% 2.85%

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Ratio Comparison: Profit MarginRatio Comparison: Profit Margin

24

Total Asset Turnover Ratio:

Inventory Turnover Ratio:

Activity (Turnover) Ratio Activity (Turnover) Ratio Examples: DellExamples: Dell

25

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

Ass

et T

urn

ove

r

Dell 2.47 2.59 2.89 2.65 2.20

Industry 2.00 2.30 1.90 2.00

Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00

Ratio Comparison: Asset TurnoverRatio Comparison: Asset Turnover

26

The DuPont SystemThe DuPont System

Method to breakdown ROE into:– ROA and Equity Multiplier

ROA is further broken down as:– Profit Margin and Asset Turnover

Helps to identify sources of strength and weakness in current performance

Helps to focus attention on value drivers

27

The DuPont SystemThe DuPont System

Profi t M argin T ota l A sse t T urnover

RO A E quity M ultip l ie r

RO E

28

The DuPont SystemThe DuPont System

Profi t M argin T ota l A sse t T urnover

RO A E quity M ultip l ie r

RO E

EquityCommon

Assets Total

Assets Total

IncomeNet MultiplierEquity ROAROE

29

The DuPont SystemThe DuPont System

Profi t M argin T ota l A sse t T urnover

RO A E quity M ultip l ie r

RO E

Assets Total

Sales

Sales

IncomeNet TurnoverAsset TotalMarginProfit ROA

30

The DuPont SystemThe DuPont System

Profi t M argin T ota l A sse t T urnover

RO A E quity M ultip l ie r

RO E

EquityCommon

Assets Total

Assets Total

Sales

Sales

IncomeNet MultiplierEquity TurnoverAsset TotalMarginProfit ROE

31

The DuPont System: DellThe DuPont System: Dell

Multiplier EquityROA

Multiplier EquityTurnover Asset TotalMarginProfit Equity Common

AssetsTotal

AssetsTotal

Sales

Sales

IncomeNet ROE

31.39%

2.16111452.0

2.16112.20250.0659$5,308.00

$11,471.00

$11,471.00

$25,265.00

$25,265.00

$1,666.00ROE

32

A Note on Sustainable Growth A Note on Sustainable Growth and Stock Returnsand Stock Returns In the long run

– Sustainable growth and long run capital gains (g) = ROE x

Recall the relationship between stock returns (r), capital gains (g) and forward dividend yields (D1/P0):– r = g + D1/P0 = g + Do(1+g)/P0

Note: r & g must be quarterly if D is quarterly and annual if D is annual

33

Example: Predicted Example: Predicted Sustainable Growth for DellSustainable Growth for Dell Based on the most

recent numbers:– ROE = 31.39% &

= 100%

– g = 0.3139 x 1 = 31.39%

– r = 0.3139 + 0/P = 31.39%

Based on 5 year averages:– ROE = 51.94% &

= 100%

– g = 0.5194 x 1 = 51.94%

– r = 0.3139 + 0/P = 51.94%

34

Summary of Financial RatiosSummary of Financial Ratios

Ratios help to:– Evaluate performance– Structure analysis– Show the connection between activities and

performance Benchmark with

– Past for the company– Industry

Ratios adjust for size differences

35

Limitations of Ratio AnalysisLimitations of Ratio Analysis

A firm’s industry category is often difficult to identify

Published industry averages are only guidelines

Accounting practices differ across firms Sometimes difficult to interpret deviations

in ratios Industry ratios may not be desirable

targets Seasonality affects ratios

36

Ratios and ForecastingRatios and Forecasting

Common stock valuation based on– Expected cashflows to stockholders– ROE and are major determinants of cashflows to

stockholders Ratios influence expectations by:

– Showing where firm is now– Providing context for current performance

Current information influences expectations by:– Showing developments that will alter future

performance

37

How Might Ratios Help Me on How Might Ratios Help Me on the IEM?the IEM? Analysis of AAPL, IBM and MSFT, and

comparisons to the S&P500 companies can help to:– Assess the (absolute and relative) financial state of

each company– Show each company’s strengths and weaknesses– Predict sustainable growth rate

Combined with current information, this can help to:– Assess likely future performance– Predict future valuation and earnings growth– Predict returns