Project ID: 768884 H2020-NMBP-CSA-2017 Mapping a path to future Supply Chains Next generation Technologies for networked Europe D2.1: Report on trends and key factors Disclaimer: The NEXT-NET project is co-funded by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme. This document reflects only authors’ views. EC is not liable for any use that may be done of the information contained therein. WP: WP2-Industrial future scenarios for SCs Task: T2.1- Identification of trends and key factors Partner responsible: Dimitra Kalaitzi and Aristides Matopoulos (Aston University) Contributors: Rosanna Fornasiero, Andrea Zangiacomi and Irene Marchiori (CNR-ITIA), Ana Cristina Barros, Kerley Pires, Pedro Campos, Vasco Amorim (INESC TEC), Victoria Muerza (ZLC), Saskia Sardesai, Denis Daus and Markus Witthaut (Fraunhofer IML), Luk Aerts and Sébastien Balech (PNO) Status: Final Date: 31/01/2017 Version: 1.0 Classification: Public Ref. Ares(2018)596974 - 31/01/2018
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Project ID: 768884
H2020-NMBP-CSA-2017 Mapping a path to future Supply Chains
Next generation Technologies for networked Europe
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
Disclaimer:
The NEXT-NET project is co-funded by the European Commission under the Horizon 2020 Framework
Programme. This document reflects only authors’ views. EC is not liable for any use that may be done of the
information contained therein.
WP: WP2-Industrial future scenarios for SCs
Task: T2.1- Identification of trends and key factors
Partner responsible: Dimitra Kalaitzi and Aristides Matopoulos (Aston
University)
Contributors:
Rosanna Fornasiero, Andrea Zangiacomi and Irene
Marchiori (CNR-ITIA), Ana Cristina Barros, Kerley Pires,
Pedro Campos, Vasco Amorim (INESC TEC), Victoria
Muerza (ZLC), Saskia Sardesai, Denis Daus and
Markus Witthaut (Fraunhofer IML), Luk Aerts and
Sébastien Balech (PNO)
Status: Final
Date: 31/01/2017
Version: 1.0
Classification: Public
Ref. Ares(2018)596974 - 31/01/2018
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
2
NEXT-NET Project Profile
Project ID: 768884; H2020-NMBP-CSA-2017
Acronym: NEXT-NET
Title: Next generation Technologies for networked Europe
URL: https://nextnetproject.eu/
Start Date: 01/10/2017
Duration: 24 Months
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
3
Document History
Version Date Author (Partner) Remarks
0.1 6/11/2017 Aston University Version submitted to
consortium members
0.2 10/11/2017 CNR-ITIA, INESC
TEC, ZLC,
Fraunhofer IML, PNO
Version with
comments
0.3 22/11/2017 Aston University Version submitted to
consortium members
0.4 15/12/2017 Aston University Updated list of
megatrends and
trends submitted to
consortium members
0.5 3/01/2018 Aston University Updated version
submitted to
consortium members
0.6 08/01/2018 CNR-ITIA, INESC
TEC, ZLC,
Fraunhofer IML,
PNO
Version with
Comments
0.8 16/01/2018 Aston University Document submitted
for review
0.9 22/01/2018 PNO Internal review
0.9 23/01/2018 CNR-ITIA, INESC
TEC, ZLC,
Fraunhofer IML
Version with
comments
1.0 31/01/2018 Aston University Final document for
submission
Final 31/01/2018 CNR-ITIA Submitted
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
4
Executive Summary
This report is the Deliverable 2.1 entitled “Report on trends and key factors” of the Next-net
project. The aim of the project is to put in place a cross-sectoral and cross-technological
initiative at European level to increase integration between production and distribution
proposing research and innovation priorities for the future of supply chain. The Deliverable 2.1
focuses on identifying and providing a comprehensive list of megatrends and associated
trends that address critical aspects of several domains of analysis (e.g. political).
The research design adopted follows two sequential phases of data collection namely
literature review and experts workshop. The methodological approach of the first phase is
guided by PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal and Environmental)
framework, which examines political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental
megatrends and trends that can shape the landscape of the discrete manufacturing, process
manufacturing and the logistics industry. NVivo software was used for content analysis of the
collected reports and articles for recognising recurring themes, namely megatrends and their
associated trends. Regarding phase two, Aston University, with the support of all project
partners, organised and conducted a workshop with 18 experts on December 5, 2017 in
Birmingham, United Kingdom.
In the political dimension 3 megatrends emerged namely protectionism (4 trends: import
tariffs, quotas, different tax structures and subsidies), political stability (2 trends:
terrorism/conflict and social unrest), and supranationalism (2 trends: trade agreements and
free movement). There also 3 megatrends under the economic dimension: global trade
Annex A: List of Acronyms ............................................................... 148
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
8
List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Impact and time horizon of megatrends ............................................................................ 13
Figure 1-2: Examples of megatrends and trends ................................................................................. 13
Figure 3-1: Geographical breakdown of trade and investment barriers, 2016 (* - G20 countries) ...... 22
Figure 3-2: Simple Average Price of the Most Sold Brand, Excise Tax per pack ................................ 23
Figure 3-3: Tax structure by country [53] .............................................................................................. 23
Figure 3-4: Pre-tax subsidies and post-tax energy subsidies ............................................................... 24
Figure 3-5: Global political violence score vs year .............................................................................. 25
Figure 3-6: Number of terrorist attacks in 2016 ................................................................................... 26
Figure 3-7: Social unrest ...................................................................................................................... 26
Figure 3-8: Unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty trends ............................... 27
Figure 3-9: Global exports and trade agreements ............................................................................... 27
Figure 3-10: Free movement and migration ......................................................................................... 28
Figure 3-11: Free movement and migration ......................................................................................... 28
Figure 3-12: Projected GDP growth by region ..................................................................................... 30
Figure 3-13: Global trade patterns ....................................................................................................... 31
Figure 3-14: The growth gap ................................................................................................................ 31
Figure 3-15: Contributions to world trade volume growth by region, 2011-2016 ................................. 32
Figure 3-16: Growth in world trade volume (good and services) ......................................................... 32
Figure 3-17: Inward and outward foreign direct investment stocks of the EU relative to the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP, EU-28, 2008-2015 ............................................................................. 33
Figure 3-57: Household expenditure by consumption purpose - COICOP, EU-28, 2015, share of total .............................................................................................................................................................. 59
Figure 3-58: Caloric intake per capita in least developed, other developing and developed countries .............................................................................................................................................................. 60
Figure 3-59: The percentage of global consumers who shop in-store at least once a week .............. 61
Figure 3-60: the gap between what is important to consumers in-store, versus their satisfaction levels .............................................................................................................................................................. 61
Figure 3-61: Total worldwide e-commerce sales ................................................................................. 62
Figure 3-62: percentage of customers who purchased from an overseas retailer .............................. 62
Figure 3-71: Top 10 use cases ............................................................................................................ 71
Figure 3-72: Percentage of enterprises which buy cloud computing services used over the internet, 2016 ..................................................................................................................................................... 72
Figure 3-100: Total hydrogen use, 2015 estimate ............................................................................... 90
Figure 3-101: Total Data exchange between companies as an essential feature of digitisation ......... 94
Figure 3-102: Data exchange currently carried out by companies with other companies or institutions .............................................................................................................................................................. 94
Figure 3-103: 10 types of company currently involved in data exchange ............................................ 95
Figure 3-104: Regularity of data exchange with other companies according to company size ........... 95
Figure 3-105: Opportunities provided by the present possibilities for cross-company data exchange 96
Figure 3-106: Obstacles which mean companies do not approve of data exchange ........................... 97
Figure 3-107: Growth in reporting since 1993 ...................................................................................... 99
Figure 3-108: % of companies with CR reports .................................................................................... 99
Figure 3-109: Growth in independent assurance of CR information ................................................... 99
Figure 3-114: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel use and industry ........................................ 104
Figure 3-115: Global CO2 emissions, 2000-2017 ............................................................................. 104
Figure 3-116: Greenhouse gas emissions per capita, by country, 2005 and 2015 ............................ 105
Figure 3-117: Greenhouse gas emissions and projections, 1990–2050 ........................................... 105
Figure 3-118: % of samples with concentrations above the threshold value in all the LUCAS samples ............................................................................................................................................................ 106
Figure 3-119: Change in global mean sea level ................................................................................ 107
Figure 3-120: Global average temperature change .......................................................................... 108
Figure 3-121: Projections of extreme high temperatures ................................................................. 108
Figure 3-122: Projected change in minimum river flow .................................................................... 109
Figure 3-123: Projected growth in global water consumption by sector ............................................ 110
Figure 3-124: Water consumption patterns by sector and regions .................................................... 110
Figure 3-125: Worldwide evolution of land use .................................................................................. 111
Figure 3-126: Evolution of per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) ....................................... 111
Figure 3-127: Food price development and its relation to water and climate change ....................... 111
Figure 3-128: EU food waste per year (tonnes) ................................................................................ 112
Figure 3-129: Waste per person by food type .................................................................................... 112
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
11
Figure 3-130: Energy demand by sector ............................................................................................ 113
Figure 3-131: Global transportation demand ..................................................................................... 113
Figure 3-132: Global Commercial transportation demand by different modes of transportation ........ 114
Figure 3-133: Energy demand by region ........................................................................................... 114
The goal of this deliverable is to present an overview of the trends and megatrends that can
influence discrete manufacturing, process manufacturing and the logistics industry and thus
define the future of supply chains. In particular, on the basis of 6 specific dimensions of the
PESTLE analysis (i.e. political, economic, social, technological, legal, environmental), this
report has identified 22 megatrends and 66 related trends were also associated (see Figure
4-1). The identification of megatrends and their trends is critical for the generation of future
industrial scenarios which is the objective of the Task 2.2. More specifically, the
trends/megatrends will be further adapted/updated in T2.2 where the development paths will
be created based on them. The generation of such scenarios will forge a strategic research
agenda and policy recommendations to develop measures so that supply chains are able to
fulfil their full potential for contributing to European economic growth and prosperity.
Figure 4-1: Megatrends and trends
These trends and megatrends have been identified based on an extensive literature review
that was held with the support of all the partners. A systematic analysis of almost 350 reports
allowed to categorise the content along the six dimensions. The literature analysis was based
not only on scientific publications, but also on sectoral studies, other strategic roadmaps,
governmental reports, visionary insights and data from Eurostat. The analysis was also
supported by the expert workshop, an interactive session organised by Aston University where
further insights on the trends have been collected and merged.
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
124
Megatrends/ trends have different implications on the future of supply chains and each of them
could affect different aspects of the supply chain (e.g. climate change impacts on
infrastructures such as logistics and transportation, while pollution which is a trend of the
climate change leads to sustainable manufacturing processes, in the same way, for what
concerns the political dimension, e.g. an increase in custom duties can change both the goods
flow and the production location).
The next step towards the scenario formulation will be the creation of the development paths
for each megatrend or, if necessary, for the related trends in order to exploit, on the basis of
literature and other insights, the possible evolution of the megatrend itself and enable the
creation of new scenarios. The probability of occurrence of these paths for the year 2030 will
be then assessed and evaluated through evidences and specific surveys with experts.
Efforts have been made to produce a detailed and systematic analysis since the vast amount
of information available on these topics and the use of different terminology (often to describe
the same trend or concept) made the analysis challenging because of megatrends/trends
complementing or contradicting each other. Given the dynamic, complex and fast evolving
nature of modern supply chains it may be possible that certain trends may not have been (fully
or partially) included in this deliverable or they received less emphasis. Other
trends/megatrends could arise during the next steps and would be included in the future
analysis.
Besides its contribution for the next tasks of the project, this report can be useful for European
companies as they can use it as a framework for the identification of changes and
opportunities, as well as challenges and threats along the six dimensions, and consequently
improve the competitiveness of their future supply chain.
D2.1: Report on trends and key factors
125
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