d to CoCoRaHS · d to CoCoRaHS r k r Series y 26, 2015 nts Board. t nts Board. ojections Coordinator Economist etary e n Grains Livestock Fibers Oilseeds Crops ittees Analysts ologist

The Need for International Weather Dataand Related Products at the

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Presented to

CoCoRaHS Weather Talk Webinar Series

February 26, 2015

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

WASDE Report


Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator

OCE Chief Economist

Secretary/Deputy Secretary

USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure

WAOB Chairperson

Grains OilseedsLivestock Fibers Specialty Crops

Interagency Commodity Estimates CommitteesChaired by WAOB Senior Analysts

Chief MeteorologistUSDA Contingent

Joint Agricultural Weather Facility


USDA/JAWF’S Main Responsibilities

• Routinely collect global agricultural weather information to determine the cumulative impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects;

• Provide information on weather-related agricultural developments to the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture;

• Publish the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin; and

• Provide crop-weather assessments for WAOB’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report.


JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY

U.S. Dept. of AgricultureNational Oceanic &

Atmospheric Administration

National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental

Prediction

Office of the Chief Economist

National AgriculturalStatistics Service

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

U.S. Dept. of Commerce

Global Weather DataInternational

CropInformation

DomesticCrop

Statistics


World Agricultural Outlook Board

AgriculturalStatistics Board


Source: USDA


Source: USDA

Price Impact of 2008 Argentina Drought


Soybean prices up 40 to 50 percent:U.S. acreage up 1.5 million acres from intentions

Soaking rains to benefit Brazil coffee, sugar cane, grain crops ‐ RTRS


Rain fosters soy and corn crops in Argentina ‐meteorologist ‐ RTRS

Higher-than-normal temperature in north China favorable for wintering of wheat - XINHUN

UPDATE 1‐Cyclone threatens over 10 pct of Australian sugarcane ‐industry body ‐ RTRS

Sampling of Press Report Headlines - February 2015

Hailstorm damages upto 20% wheat crops in Shahkot, Nakodar ‐ HINDUT

+ many others regarding weather impacts in other parts of the world

23‐Feb‐2015 11:05 ‐MOROCCO COULD HARVEST RECORD CEREAL CROP ABOVE 10 MLN TONNES THIS YEAR AFTER FAVOURABLE RAINS ‐ FARM MINISTRY OFFICIAL

WMO Synoptic and Metar Observations

NWS

NCEP

USDA CPCProducts

Weather Data

• Weather has a significant impact on crop development from pre-planting to harvesting.

• Weather events must be closely monitored in all crop areas as each crop is affected differently by heat, drought and other weather and climate extremes during the growing season.


1 United Nations World Meteorological Organization

Location of weather stations received daily via the WMO1

* Random sampling of available daily weather data


* Most have data since at least 1982(many with normals)

WMO (~70) Rain Gauge (900+)

Data obtained by CPC from the Mexican weather bureau are incorporated into the weekly rainfall chart created for the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and are provided separately to USDA analysts for their

analysis of crop weather impacts.

Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Secondary sources of weather data


Weekly Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010

(WMO)


(Mexican Rain Gauge)

The maps above highlight the differences that arise using WMO data, which are sparse in coverage, versus the supplemental rain gauge data, which provides a denser network of stations and a better

representation of rainfall.

0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm

25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm

0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm

25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm

Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Secondary sources of weather data


Comparison with other sources of information, including satellite derived estimates (CMORPH), support the rain gauge analysis.

0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm

25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm


(Mexican Rain Gauge)

Estimated Rainfall (mm)April 11-17, 2010

(CMORPH)

Lower (1-10 mm) Higher (~ 200 mm) Highest (> 400 mm)

Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF)Validation using existing GIS products


Higher

Yields*Average (2005/06-09/10)

IntensityProductionLower

*Source: SAGPyA

* Corn Yields

Stations in “Main Crop Area”

BuenosAiresLa Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

Chaco

Santiagodel

Estero

SanLuis

Salta

Corrientes

Form.

Tu.

BuenosAiresLa Pampa

EntreRios

SantaFe

Cordoba

Chaco

Santiagodel

Estero

SanLuis

Salta

Corrientes

Form.

Tu.

* Soybean Yields


2014/15

Average

2009/10 2006/07




3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

MT/HA Argentina Corn Yield Actual vs. Forecast

Fcst Actual MinAg Yield

Min Ag Yield f(trend, 2012 Dummy, Dec‐Jan Avg Temp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp^2

2014 Forecast: 8.53 MT/HA, SE: 0.37


Major

Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)

IntensityProductionMinor

*Source: MINAG / IBGE

Soybean ProductionBrazil and Paraguay

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & ParaguayPlanting

HarvestingFill

FlowerRio Grande

do Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

Para

Rondonia

Paraguay

Cr: Subtropical RainAw: Tropical wet and dry

Soy: ~40%1st Corn: ~50%

Soy: ~60%1st Corn: ~50%


Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm)

0123456789

Jul

-01

Jul

-23

Aug

-14

Sep

-05

Sep

-27

Oct

-19

Nov

-10

Dec

-02

Dec

-24

Jan

-15

Feb

-06

Feb

-28

Mar

-22

Apr

-13

May

-05

May

-27

Jun

-18

Parana MTAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

April 8


2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Met

ric T

ons

Per H

ecta

re (m

T/ha

)

Mato Grosso*2nd Crop Corn Yields

Observed Predicted

2011: Above-normal rainfall, then early end to season

2nd crop yield: 4.02 mT/ha (down 15.5%)

April 8

Source: IBGE/CONAB


2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Met

ric T

ons

Per H

ecta

re (m

T/ha

)


Observed Predicted

2012: Near-normal rainfall, then unusual May / June rainfall

2nd crop yield: 5.70 mT/ha (up 15.5%)

April 8

Source: IBGE/CONAB


2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Met

ric T

ons

Per H

ecta

re (m

T/ha

)


Observed Predicted

2013: Above-normal rainfall, then scattered showers in May

2nd crop yield: 5.78 mT/ha (up 13.4%)

April 8

Source: IBGE/CONAB


Brazil Soybeans

Source: IBGE Brazil

* State-Level Production(as % of total)

Mato GrossoParanaRio Grande do SulGoiasMato Grosso do SulMinas GeraisBahiaSao PauloMaranhaoSanta CatarinaTocantinsOther

30191312

8543222

~2

* 2005 to 2009 Average


Soybean crop calendar for most of Center-South BrazilPlanting

HarvestingFill

Flower

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Major

Soybean Production*Average (2005-09)


*Source: IBGE

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui

a – Cearab – Rio Grande do Nortec – Paraibad – Pernambucoe – Alagoasf – Sergipeh – Espirito Santoi – Rio de Janeiro

ab

cd

ef

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

Roraima

Amapa

Acre


Elements: Average Temperature, Days >=35°C, Precipitation, Days Between Rainfall

Rio Grande do Sul: Jan, Feb, Mar (r2 = .99)

Estimated yield: 2.54 mT/ha

March Lockup: 2.45 mT/ha

Parana: Dec, Jan, Feb (r2 = .92)

Estimated yield: 2.78 mT/ha


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Perc

cent

(%)

Comparison of Yield Departures From TrendParana versus Mato Grosso do Sul

Pr %Diff MS %Diff


Parana

MGDS

Precipitation(mm)

Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015


Precipitation(mm)

Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015

Crop Mask(~50 mm or less)

*Soy: 25% (2009-13)*1st Corn: 34% (2011-13)

* Source: IBGE


Brazil Corn (First Crop)

Source: IBGE Brazil


ParanaMinas Gerais

Rio Grande do SulSanta Catarina

Sao PauloGoiasBahia

Mato GrossoPara

Mato Grosso do SulCeara

SergipeMaranhao

Other States

2317141010

94322211

~4* 2007 to 2009 Average

Major

Corn Production*Average (2007-09)


*Source: IBGE

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui


ab

cd

ef

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

Roraima

Amapa

Acre


1st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul).

Period of Highest Intensity Plant

Harvest


Brazil Corn (First Crop)

Major

Corn Production*Average (2011-13)


*Source: IBGE

Rio Grandedo Sul

SantaCatarina

Mato Grosso

Bahia

Mato Grossodo Sul

Parana

SaoPaulo

MinasGerais

Goias

Tocantins

Maranhao

Piaui


ab

cd

ef

h

i

Para

Amazonas

Rondonia

Roraima

Amapa

Acre


1st Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil

In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul).

Period of Highest Intensity Plant

Harvest

Source: IBGE Brazil


Minas GeraisParana

Rio Grande do SulSanta Catarina

Goias Sao Paulo

BahiaMaranhao

PiauiPara

Mato GrossoMato Grosso do Sul

CearaOther States

20201410

995222111

~4* 2011 to 2013 Average



Other Climate Data / Information

Australia


Source: PSD-Online

El Niño


-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C)Niño Region 3.4

La Niña Neutral / non-Event El Niño

1997/98

2002/03

09/10

06/07


Source: PSD-Online

El Niño

1997/98 2002/03 09/1006/07



Thank You !

[email protected]


d to CoCoRaHS · d to CoCoRaHS r k r Series y 26, 2015 nts Board. t nts Board. ojections Coordinator Economist etary e n Grains Livestock Fibers Oilseeds Crops ittees Analysts ologist

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