D- 32668 ANAHLYSIS OF IHE IMPACT 0F 0POL PROGRAMS UN RE TENTION OF ENL ISTER PE RE SOURCS RE HERCH CORP COLLEGE STATIUR TX 09 JN 82 F4 ERR89-1 0063 UCAEE h/h 5/E hhE Emmhmhhmhhhus EhhhEmhhEmhEEE mhEmhhmhEEmhEE .0fllfllfllfllfllfllfl mhEEEEEEEEEEEE
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D- 32668 ANAHLYSIS OF IHE IMPACT 0F 0POL PROGRAMS UNRE TENT ION OF ENL ISTER PE RE SOURCS RE HERCH CORPCOLLEGE STATIUR TX 09 JN 82 F4 ERR89-1 0063
UCAEE h/h 5/E hhEEmmhmhhmhhhus
EhhhEmhhEmhEEEmhEmhhmhEEmhEE.0fllfllfllfllfllfllflmhEEEEEEEEEEEE
11111 0 02.
112IL 4 11L6
MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHARTNATIONA[ BUREAU Of STANOAROS 1963 A
PHOTOGRAPH THIS SHEET
S LEVEL RS@Ainines Iagr amp - 7%nt TZ INVENTORy
Ahslpft of t.w bpaft of Ncgple, A fendgites K, Li N
DOSTIUCAEIO ELECFIATO
DISTRIBUTION STTMN
AVAILIO AN/RSECAOAEACESREDIS GA
DSTIBUTION SAM
PHOTOGRAPH /hSSETAN EUNT DTI-D-
DIOT AVALDO PCA DOT CMESNPOESSNHE
DTIC OTM7 70ADOUETPOSINSHT
OCT 79
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF "PEOPLE PROGRAMS"
UPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNELIN THE AIR FORCE
C1 Contract No. F41689-81-C-0063
NFinal ReportAPPENDICES K, L, N
Ilk)
Resources Research Corporation3833 Texas Ave., Suite 256, Bryan, Texas 77801, 713/8464713
I UTUIDTIN STALTEMUENT AAp~w..i public W60004
'WwibudOB Usilimiwd
A-
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF *PEOPLE PROGRAMS"UPON RETENTION OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL
IN THE AIR FORCE
Contract No. F41689-81---o63
Final Report
APPENDICES K, L, N
June 9, 1982
Submitted toMajor George Petrick
AFMPC/MPYARandolph AFB 78150
Submitted byRRC
3833 Texas Avenue, Suite 256Bryant Texas 77801
Apuyed in pubko MekiI isibudos IUnud
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Volume I
Chapter Page
SI Introduction 1
xI. Supply of Air Force Personnel 3
III. Equilibrium in the Air ForcePersonnel Market 16
IV. An Overview of the Data 32
V. An Econometric Model of Retention 71
Bibliography 166
Appendix AAppendix B
Volume II
Appendix CAppendix DAppendix E
Volume III
Appendix FAppendix GAppendix H
Volume IV
Appendix IAppendix JAppendix KAppendix LAppendix 1
* V. - .- .~
I I
CHAPTER I
Introduction
Currently, a major concern of the U.S. Air Force is the
relatively low reenlistment rates of experienced Air Force
1personnel. For example, the Air Force is faced with manpower
shortages in AFSCs such as Weather Observers, Air Traffic
Controllers, Missile Systems Analysts, and Avionic Communications
Specialists. During the last two decades, the Air Force has
instituted several "people programs" which are designed to
encourage reenlistment of trained first term, second term, and
career airmen. Basically, these programs allow experienced
airmen to have some input in choosing the location or length of
tour of their future assignments. In deciding to what extent
these programs should be continued or expanded, one of several
criteria upon which the Air Force must evaluate the effectiveness
of the "people programs" is t, determine the impact of "People
Programs" on retention rates. Of particular concern are such
programs as Base of Preference (BOP) assignments, Joint
Assignment of Married Couples (Join Spouse), Voluntary Stabilized
Base Assignment Program (VSBAP), and the CONUS Assignment SWAP
Program, among others.
Ji The primary purpose of this project is to provide an
*valuation of the impact of the "people programs" on retention.
n particular, we examine both theoretically and empirically the
Mpact of assignment policy on the retention of first-termers,
econd-termers and career airman for the years 1974 to 1980.
his time series analysis is undertaken at an individual level,
I I k
though some aggregate statistics are considered. At the
individual level a probit specification will be used to carry out
the analysis. This analysis will allow the Air Force to
!determine not only the impact of the "people programso on
reenlistment rates, but also if the cost of implementing these
programs will be offset by the benefits which, to a large extent,
;consist of the savings in training costs of new personnel.
2
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