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Major Natural Disasters on the region
DisasterDisaster Life PeriodLife Period
FloodsFloods -- DaysDays
EarthquakesEarthquakes -- Second/MinutesSecond/Minutes
CyclonesCyclones -- DaysDays
DroughtsDroughts -- MonthsMonths
LandslidesLandslides -- DaysDays
AvalanchesAvalanches -- DaysDays
Heat/Cold wavesHeat/Cold waves -- Days/WeeksDays/Weeks
TsunamiTsunami -- Minutes/ HoursMinutes/ Hours
ThunderstormThunderstorm -- Minutes/ HoursMinutes/ Hours
DisasterDisaster Life PeriodLife Period
FloodsFloods -- DaysDays
EarthquakesEarthquakes -- Second/MinutesSecond/Minutes
CyclonesCyclones -- DaysDays
DroughtsDroughts -- MonthsMonths
LandslidesLandslides -- DaysDays
AvalanchesAvalanches -- DaysDays
Heat/Cold wavesHeat/Cold waves -- Days/WeeksDays/Weeks
TsunamiTsunami -- Minutes/ HoursMinutes/ Hours
ThunderstormThunderstorm -- Minutes/ HoursMinutes/ Hours
Climatology of tropical storms andcyclones
Average annual number (1970-2000) of tropical storms/cyclones over eachocean basin (average around the globe : 84 TS / 44 TC) and average trackof the disturbances
F. Roux, 2006F. Roux, 2006
Classification of Cyclonic disturbances Over theIndian Seas
Classification of Cyclonic disturbances Over theIndian Seas
Low pressure system Maximum sustained winds
Low < 17 knots
Depression 17 – 27 kts
Deep Depression 28 – 33 kts
Cyclonic storm 34 – 47 kts
Severe Cyclonic storm 48 – 63 ktsSevere Cyclonic storm 48 – 63 kts
Very Severe Cyclonic storm 64 – 89 kts
Extremely Severe Cyclonic storm 90 – 119 kts
Super Cyclonic storm 120 kts & above
Damage due to Cyclone ‘Phailin’ over Odisha
Districts Affected:Angul Balasore, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttak, Ganjapati, Ganjam,Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Kamdhamal, Kendrapara, Keonjhar, Khurda,Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Nayagarh, PuriBlock Affected (Nos.) : 151GPs Affected(Nos.) : 2015Village Affected(Nos.) : 18117ULB Affected (Nos.) : 43Population Affected (Nos.) due to flood & cyclone : 12396065Human Casualty due to cyclone : 21Human Casualty due to flood : 17Crop area affected (hect) : 668268Person evacuated due to cyclone : 983642Person evacuated due to flood : 171083Cattle evacuated : 31062House damaged : 419052
Districts Affected:Angul Balasore, Bhadrak, Bolangir, Cuttak, Ganjapati, Ganjam,Jagatsinghpur, Jajpur, Kamdhamal, Kendrapara, Keonjhar, Khurda,Koraput, Mayurbhanj, Nayagarh, PuriBlock Affected (Nos.) : 151GPs Affected(Nos.) : 2015Village Affected(Nos.) : 18117ULB Affected (Nos.) : 43Population Affected (Nos.) due to flood & cyclone : 12396065Human Casualty due to cyclone : 21Human Casualty due to flood : 17Crop area affected (hect) : 668268Person evacuated due to cyclone : 983642Person evacuated due to flood : 171083Cattle evacuated : 31062House damaged : 419052
Out of 80 forming over theglobe, five form over northIndian Ocean
Ratio of TCs between Bay ofBengal and Arabian Sea – 4:1
Year to year variation - Quitelarge.
BayBay ofof BengalBengal isis aa vastvast warmwarmpoolpool adjoiningadjoining thethe warmwarm poolpool ofofthethe westernwestern NorthNorth PacificPacific..
TheThe oceanocean currentscurrents inin thethe BayBay ofofBengalBengal areare quitequite complexcomplex..
TheThe bathymetrybathymetry ofof thisthis coastcoast isisalsoalso veryvery complexcomplex duedue toto aanumbernumber ofof rivers,rivers, deltaicdeltaic regionsregionsandand orographyorography
MoreMore thanthan 7575%% ofof thethe cyclonescyclonescausingcausing 50005000 oror moremore humanhumandeathsdeaths havehave occurredoccurred overover thisthisregionregion
Cyclones over NIO Out of 80 forming over theglobe, five form over northIndian Ocean
Ratio of TCs between Bay ofBengal and Arabian Sea – 4:1
Year to year variation - Quitelarge.
BayBay ofof BengalBengal isis aa vastvast warmwarmpoolpool adjoiningadjoining thethe warmwarm poolpool ofofthethe westernwestern NorthNorth PacificPacific..
TheThe oceanocean currentscurrents inin thethe BayBay ofofBengalBengal areare quitequite complexcomplex..
TheThe bathymetrybathymetry ofof thisthis coastcoast isisalsoalso veryvery complexcomplex duedue toto aanumbernumber ofof rivers,rivers, deltaicdeltaic regionsregionsandand orographyorography
MoreMore thanthan 7575%% ofof thethe cyclonescyclonescausingcausing 50005000 oror moremore humanhumandeathsdeaths havehave occurredoccurred overover thisthisregionregion
Cyclone Mitigation Measures Reduction of cyclone disasters depends on several factors including hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, preparedness & planning, early warning and mitigation.
The early warning is a major component as evident from a surveyconducted for the south Asian region.
The early warning component includes skill in monitoring and prediction of cyclone, effective warning products generation and dissemination, coordination with emergency response units and the public perception about the credibility of the official
predictions and warnings.
Reduction of cyclone disasters depends on several factors including hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, preparedness & planning, early warning and mitigation.
The early warning is a major component as evident from a surveyconducted for the south Asian region.
The early warning component includes skill in monitoring and prediction of cyclone, effective warning products generation and dissemination, coordination with emergency response units and the public perception about the credibility of the official
predictions and warnings.
••
•• Established in 1973Established in 1973
•• MembersMembers
BangladeshBangladesh
IndiaIndia
(RSMC, New(RSMC, New--Delhi)Delhi)
MaldivesMaldives
MyanmarMyanmar
OmanOman
PakistanPakistan
Sri LankaSri Lanka
ThailandThailand
WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones••
•• Established in 1973Established in 1973
•• MembersMembers
BangladeshBangladesh
IndiaIndia
(RSMC, New(RSMC, New--Delhi)Delhi)
MaldivesMaldives
MyanmarMyanmar
OmanOman
PakistanPakistan
Sri LankaSri Lanka
ThailandThailand
Responsibilities of RSMC – New Delhi1) Round the clock watch over the entire North Indian Ocean.
2) Analysis and processing of global meteorological data for diagnosticand prediction purposes.
3) Detection, tracking and prediction of cyclonic storms in the NIO.
4) Running of numerical models for tropical cyclone track and intensityprediction.
5) Issue of Tropical Weather Outlook once daily (at 0600 UTC) and anadditional outlook at 1700 UTC in the event of a depression which is likelyto intensify into a cyclonic storm.
6) Issue of cyclone advisories to the Panel countries 8 times a day.
1) Round the clock watch over the entire North Indian Ocean.
2) Analysis and processing of global meteorological data for diagnosticand prediction purposes.
3) Detection, tracking and prediction of cyclonic storms in the NIO.
4) Running of numerical models for tropical cyclone track and intensityprediction.
5) Issue of Tropical Weather Outlook once daily (at 0600 UTC) and anadditional outlook at 1700 UTC in the event of a depression which is likelyto intensify into a cyclonic storm.
6) Issue of cyclone advisories to the Panel countries 8 times a day.
Responsibilities of RSMC – New Delhi ...
7) Issue of storm surge advisories.
8) Implementation of the Regional Cyclone Operational Plan ofWMO/ESCAP Panel.
9) Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonicstorms viz. wind, storm surge, pressure, rainfall, satellite information etc.
10)Exchange of composite data and bulletins pertaining to cyclonicstorms with Panel countries.
11)Preparation of comprehensive reports on each cyclonic storm.
12)Continued research on storm surge, track and intensity predictiontechniques.
7) Issue of storm surge advisories.
8) Implementation of the Regional Cyclone Operational Plan ofWMO/ESCAP Panel.
9) Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonicstorms viz. wind, storm surge, pressure, rainfall, satellite information etc.
10)Exchange of composite data and bulletins pertaining to cyclonicstorms with Panel countries.
11)Preparation of comprehensive reports on each cyclonic storm.
12)Continued research on storm surge, track and intensity predictiontechniques.
Action
Runs of differentModels,Consecutive runsfrom the samemodel,Ensemble runs("choosing thebest member")
Decisionmaker
Initial conditions(Observations)
Forecaster
Broad Classification ofObservations
Surface
Upper Air
Space Based
• Pilot Balloon• RSRW• Profiler• Ground Based RADAR• Aircraft
• Geoststionary Satellites• Polar Orbiting Satellites
• AW S• ARG• SYNOP• BUOYS• AVIATION• SHIPS
Monitoring andForecast Process
Monitoring and Forecast Process of Tropical Cyclone
Runs of differentModels,Consecutive runsfrom the samemodel,Ensemble runs("choosing thebest member") Numerical
forecasts
Model Decisionmaker
Numericalforecasts
Endforecast
ForecasterModelModel runs
Numericalforecasts
INSAT-3D
SpectralBand
Wavelength(µm)
GroundResolution
Visible 0.55-0.75 1 km
SWIR 1.55-1.70 1 km
MIR 3.80-4.00 4km
WV 6.50-7.10 8kmINSAT-3D launched on 26th July, 2013
Payloads on INSAT-3D Satellite• Six Channel Imager• 19 Channel Sounder• Data Relay Transponder• Satellite Aided Search and Rescue (SAS & R)
Transponder.
WV 6.50-7.10 8km
TIR1 10.2-11.3 4km
TIR2 11.5-12.5 4km
INSAT-3D Satellite ImagerChannel Specification
Radars India :
All radars are centrally connected to data servers at Delhi for data
conversion to NetCDF, BUFR and distribution to user community (
NCMRWF, IITM, INCOIS, IAF, and IMD use at NWP, Synergy etc)
Radar data are used in models:
GIS based systems overlays the radar products on Google Maps
Central server generates composites
Radar products are available to neighbouring countries also through
website.
Other WMO/ESCAP Panel countries :
DWR in Bangladesh are utilised
India :
All radars are centrally connected to data servers at Delhi for data
conversion to NetCDF, BUFR and distribution to user community (
NCMRWF, IITM, INCOIS, IAF, and IMD use at NWP, Synergy etc)
Radar data are used in models:
GIS based systems overlays the radar products on Google Maps
Central server generates composites
Radar products are available to neighbouring countries also through
website.
Other WMO/ESCAP Panel countries :
DWR in Bangladesh are utilised
Global Data DisseminationCentre
WMO WIS (WMO InformationSystem) programme, GlobalInformation System Centre(GISC) installed at IMD Pune.
GISC implementation hasuplifted IMD status fromRegional to Global datadissemination centre.
• Other achievements in Telecom• Launch website• www.indiaweather.gov.in• www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in• Upgradation of Internet• Internet bandwidth to 100 Mbps
during cyclone ‘Hudhud’ resultedin failure free service
• NKN connectivity• Video conferencing System
GISC implementation hasuplifted IMD status fromRegional to Global datadissemination centre.
• Other achievements in Telecom• Launch website• www.indiaweather.gov.in• www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in• Upgradation of Internet• Internet bandwidth to 100 Mbps
during cyclone ‘Hudhud’ resultedin failure free service
• NKN connectivity• Video conferencing System
• Future Plan• Centralized GIS Based Content
managed Website• Upgradation of IMD LAN at HQ• Expansion of NKN.• Upgradation of National VPN links• Replacement of Old AMSS
CYBER-2000U1994 ~ 2009CYBER-2000U1994 ~ 2009
1st Supercomputer1st Supercomputer
Theoretical performance25 Mflops/10GBModels: LAM (110 km)/QLM (40 km)
Theoretical performance25 Mflops/10GBModels: LAM (110 km)/QLM (40 km)
CYBER-2000U1994 ~ 2009
1st Supercomputer
Theoretical performance25 Mflops/10GBModels: LAM (110 km)/QLM (40 km)
2nd Supercomputer2nd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance14 Tflops/200TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
Theoretical performance14 Tflops/200TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
IBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~
IBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~
2nd SupercomputerIBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~
IMD’s HPC Resource & Model ChangesIMD’s HPC Resource & Model Changes
2nd Supercomputer2nd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance14 Tflops/200TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
Theoretical performance14 Tflops/200TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
IBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~
IBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~Theoretical performance14 Tflops/200TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (27/9 km)
IBM P6/P57424 nodes2009 ~
3rd Supercomputer3rd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance100 Tflops/600TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (9/3 km), HWRF (9/3 km)
Theoretical performance100 Tflops/600TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (9/3 km), HWRF (9/3 km)
IBM iDataPlex-X series300 nodes2014 ~
IBM iDataPlex-X series300 nodes2014 ~
3rd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance100 Tflops/600TBModels: GFS (23 km), WRF (9/3 km), HWRF (9/3 km)
IBM iDataPlex-X series300 nodes2014 ~
×7
×56
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Modeling :Backbone for Early Warnings
Ensemble Pred. Tools
120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h
Global Models
Regional Models
Global models
Regional models
Multi-model ensemble, Single ModelEnsemble, Grand Global Ensemble
Regional Models
Nowcasting Tools
Regional models
Warnings Activities
Nowcasting
Seasonal Prediction of Cyclogenesis
Deterministic forecast for 2014 (Pattanaik et al, 2014)The deterministic forecast for frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances over theBay of Bengal during October-December season is 2.9 against the normalfrequency of 3.4. Thus, there is a tendency of below normal cyclonicdisturbances during 2014 post-monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal.
Genesis Probability : Short Range Forecast
• SOP for Genesis Forecast• Input :• Observations (mainly satellite based) for synoptic and environmental
conditions• NWP models• Dynamical statistical guidance• The official forecast is based on a consensus forecast determined
from NWP, synoptic, environmental, statistical and dynamical-statistical inputs.
• It provides probability of cyclogenesis during next 72 hrs based onthe observations at 0300 UTC of everyday and issued at 0600 UTC.
• This probabilistic forecast is issued in terms of nil, low, fair, moderateand high probability corresponding to 0, 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100% probability of occurrence.
• It commenced since 01 June 2014
• SOP for Genesis Forecast• Input :• Observations (mainly satellite based) for synoptic and environmental
conditions• NWP models• Dynamical statistical guidance• The official forecast is based on a consensus forecast determined
from NWP, synoptic, environmental, statistical and dynamical-statistical inputs.
• It provides probability of cyclogenesis during next 72 hrs based onthe observations at 0300 UTC of everyday and issued at 0600 UTC.
• This probabilistic forecast is issued in terms of nil, low, fair, moderateand high probability corresponding to 0, 1-25, 26-50, 51-75 and 76-100% probability of occurrence.
• It commenced since 01 June 2014
TC track and intensity forecasting methodsi) Statistical Techniques
Analogue, Persistence, Climatology, CLIPERi) Synoptic Techniques – Empirical Techniquesii) Satellite Techniques Techniquesiii) Radar Techniquesv) NWP Models
• Individual models (Global and regional)• IMDGFS (574), NCMRWF (574), ARP (MeteoFrance), ECMWF, JMA,
UKMO, NCEP, WRF (IMD, IITD, IAF), HWRF (IMD), QLM• MME (IMD) and MME based on Tropical Cyclone Module (TCM)• EPS (Strike probability, Location specific probability :• NCMRWF and TIGGE products are availableR&D is required forDevelopment of EPS of regional modelsUtilisation of EPSDevelopment of Cone of Uncertainty based on EPS
vi)
i) Statistical TechniquesAnalogue, Persistence, Climatology, CLIPER
i) Synoptic Techniques – Empirical Techniquesii) Satellite Techniques Techniquesiii) Radar Techniquesv) NWP Models
• Individual models (Global and regional)• IMDGFS (574), NCMRWF (574), ARP (MeteoFrance), ECMWF, JMA,
UKMO, NCEP, WRF (IMD, IITD, IAF), HWRF (IMD), QLM• MME (IMD) and MME based on Tropical Cyclone Module (TCM)• EPS (Strike probability, Location specific probability :• NCMRWF and TIGGE products are availableR&D is required forDevelopment of EPS of regional modelsUtilisation of EPSDevelopment of Cone of Uncertainty based on EPS
vi)
Dynamical Statistical Models forCyclone Prediction:
CyclogenesisPrediction
TrackPrediction
IntensityPrediction
SCIP Model
MultimodelEnsemble(MME)
Genesis PotentialParameter(GPP)
STEP-I
STEP-II
STEP-III
STEP-IV
IntensityPrediction
RapidIntensificationDecay afterLandfall
Decay Model
RI-Index
SCIP ModelSTEP-III
STEP-V
Quadrant wind radii monitoring• Inputs: NOAA-NESDIS multi-platform
wind products and analysis field ofthe model closest to theobservational analysis
• The wind radii forecasts are issuedover the sea area only as per therequirement of the users.
• Basis : NWP models adjusted toinitial conditions
50 kt
64 kt
NortheastNorthwest• Inputs: NOAA-NESDIS multi-platformwind products and analysis field ofthe model closest to theobservational analysis
• The wind radii forecasts are issuedover the sea area only as per therequirement of the users.
• Basis : NWP models adjusted toinitial conditions
28 kt
34 ktSouthwest Southeast
Disastrous weather forecasting:Disastrous weather forecasting:Technological limitations andTechnological limitations andcapabilitiescapabilities Storm Surge prediction -
Nomograms, IITD model
INCIOS Coastal Inundation Model
Strong wind
Satellite, DWR Method, Climatology
NWP (global and regional models)
Heavy rainfall
Synoptic method, Climatological
method
Satellite, Radar and NWP Method
Storm Surge prediction -
Nomograms, IITD model
INCIOS Coastal Inundation Model
Strong wind
Satellite, DWR Method, Climatology
NWP (global and regional models)
Heavy rainfall
Synoptic method, Climatological
method
Satellite, Radar and NWP Method
Raingauge and satellite basedmerged rainfall analysis
Rainfall MonitoringRainfall Monitoring
Raingauge and satellite basedmerged rainfall analysis Accumulated rainfall (8-14 Oct, 2013
with track of Phailin showing rainfallbelt shift during landfall
Technology for Decision Support System for Early Warning
Global plottingConditional plotting Profile
Satellite
Hazard specificDSS Module
Gauges
Plane trajectories
Radar
Phailin Forecast VerificationForecast Wind
Forecast Products:
Lead Time (Hrs) Landfall Point Error (km) Landfall Time Error (hrs)12 3 3 hr delay24 13 3 hr delay36 5 3 hr delay48 11 3 hr delay60 2 3 hr delay72 6 01 hr early84 41 01 hr early
LeadTime(h
)
LandfallPointError(km)
LandfallTimeError
(hours)19 10 0 h31 20 0 h43 17 4 h early55 04 4 h early67 08 3 h early
Cyclone, HUDHUD: Forecast Performance of IMD
67 08 3 h early79 02 1 h early91 24 3 h early
103 40 3 h early
Observed and |Forecast Track of cyclone, HUDHUD based on 1200UTC of09.October 2014 (67 hours before landfall)
As predicted, Landfall took place around 0700 UTC of 12 October 2014 withwind speed of 170-180 gusting to 195 kmph. Reported wind atVisakhapatnam=180 kmph
Observed TrackForecast Track
Cyclone Warning ServicesCycloneHazard ProneDistricts
Remarkable improvement in the predictionof cyclone, e.g. Phailin and Hudhud
At par or better than other leading centres141km
99 km97 km
56 km
40
80
120
160
Track error Landfall error
2006-10 2011-15
24 hr forecast errors
Remarkable improvement in the predictionof cyclone, e.g. Phailin and Hudhud
At par or better than other leading centres
Improvement in landfall point forecast
Comparative loss of Human Lives andcost of evacuation
Reduction in Landfall point forecast errorfrom 2006-10 to 2011-15:12 hr : 33%, 24 hr : 43%36 hr : 49%, 48 hr : 67%68 hr : -22%, 72 hr : 21%
Average error in km (2011-15)Lead Error Lead Error12 hr – 36.5 24 hr- 56.3 km,36 hr – 60.6 48 hr- 93.5 km60 hr – 95.2 72 hr- 105.7 km
Economic Impact of improvements in cycloneWarning services
SN
Parameter PARADIPSuCS
Cyclone, 1999
VSCSPHAILI
N,2013
1 Loss ofhuman life
9887 21
2 Ex-gratiapaid byGovt. @Rs 6 lakhs
Rs 593 cr Rs 1.26cr
3 Area ofevacuation
500 km(approx)
180 km
Comparative loss of Human Lives andcost of evacuation
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Land
fall
Poin
t Err
or(k
m)
Annual Average Landfall PointError (km)
12 hr 24 hr36 hr 48 hr60 hr 72 hrLinear (12 hr) Linear (24 hr)
The Atmospheric Technology Vision isforan end-to-end, integrated and inter-operablenetwork of Indian atmosphericobservations,data communications, managementand deliverysystems, supported by acomprehensive useroriented software utilities to enableNowcastingto climate modeling.To achieve maximal indigenouscapacity inbuilding sensors and observationalnetworkson different platforms Likeground, upperatmosphere, aircraft and spacecraft.
Technological Need :Air Borne Observations:
• Aircraft should be qualified for flying through thunderstorms and intothe peripheral regions of severe cyclones, with a provision forDropsonde release.
• Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) need to be used for measurementsduring occurrence of specific atmospheric events.
The Atmospheric Technology Vision isforan end-to-end, integrated and inter-operablenetwork of Indian atmosphericobservations,data communications, managementand deliverysystems, supported by acomprehensive useroriented software utilities to enableNowcastingto climate modeling.To achieve maximal indigenouscapacity inbuilding sensors and observationalnetworkson different platforms Likeground, upperatmosphere, aircraft and spacecraft.
Telephone, Tele-faxMobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network,
Agromet Network, INCOIS network VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global telecommunication system (GTS) : (International
Telecom centres) Internet (e-mail), ftpWebsites, Dedicated website for cyclone
(rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio,
Private TV) : Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters
Cyclone Warning Dissemination Mechanism
Telephone, Tele-faxMobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network,
Agromet Network, INCOIS network VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global telecommunication system (GTS) : (International
Telecom centres) Internet (e-mail), ftpWebsites, Dedicated website for cyclone
(rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio,
Private TV) : Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters
Launch of dedicated website on 4 April 2014
Text -2 Here
Dissemination to member countries
Regular updating of RSMC website with latest bulletins andgraphics.
Bulletins are disseminated through email also in addition to GTSE-mail IDs and focal point addresses are updated every yearbefore the start of the cyclone season.
Telephonic communication is also used as and when required.
RSMC New Delhi appreciates the cooperation extended by themember countries in this regard.
Regular updating of RSMC website with latest bulletins andgraphics.
Bulletins are disseminated through email also in addition to GTSE-mail IDs and focal point addresses are updated every yearbefore the start of the cyclone season.
Telephonic communication is also used as and when required.
RSMC New Delhi appreciates the cooperation extended by themember countries in this regard.
Coordination with ACWCs and CWCs
BULLETINS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY ACWCS AND CWCS Four stage cycloneFour stage cyclone
warningwarning Sea area bulletinSea area bulletin Coastal weather bulletinCoastal weather bulletin Bulletins for Indian navyBulletins for Indian navy Fisheries warningsFisheries warnings Port warningsPort warnings Aviation warningAviation warning Bulletins for departmentalBulletins for departmental
exchangesexchanges Bulletins for AIR/Bulletins for AIR/
DoordarshanDoordarshan/ press/ press CWDS bulletinsCWDS bulletins Warnings for registered/Warnings for registered/
designated users.designated users.
1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to CabinetSecretary and Senior Officials indicatingformation of a cyclonic disturbance –potential to intensify into a Tropical Cycloneand the coastal belt likely to be affected.
2. Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs inadvance indicating expected adverseweather conditions.
3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrsin advance indicating latest position ofTropical Cyclone, intensity, time and pointof landfall, storm surge height, type ofdamages expected and actions suggested.
4. Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12hrs before landfall & till cyclone force windsprevail; District Collectors of interiordistricts besides the coastal areas are alsoinformed.
** Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issuedwhen the Tropical Cyclone weakens intoDepression stage.
Four stage cycloneFour stage cyclonewarningwarning
Sea area bulletinSea area bulletin Coastal weather bulletinCoastal weather bulletin Bulletins for Indian navyBulletins for Indian navy Fisheries warningsFisheries warnings Port warningsPort warnings Aviation warningAviation warning Bulletins for departmentalBulletins for departmental
exchangesexchanges Bulletins for AIR/Bulletins for AIR/
DoordarshanDoordarshan/ press/ press CWDS bulletinsCWDS bulletins Warnings for registered/Warnings for registered/
designated users.designated users.
1. Pre-cyclone watch – Issued to CabinetSecretary and Senior Officials indicatingformation of a cyclonic disturbance –potential to intensify into a Tropical Cycloneand the coastal belt likely to be affected.
2. Cyclone Alert- Issued at least 48 hrs inadvance indicating expected adverseweather conditions.
3. Cyclone warning – Issued at least 24 hrsin advance indicating latest position ofTropical Cyclone, intensity, time and pointof landfall, storm surge height, type ofdamages expected and actions suggested.
4. Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12hrs before landfall & till cyclone force windsprevail; District Collectors of interiordistricts besides the coastal areas are alsoinformed.
** Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issuedwhen the Tropical Cyclone weakens intoDepression stage.
Bulletins issued during VSCS PHAILIN fromIMD, New Delhi
Bulletin No. of BulletinsPress Release 3No. of Press ConferencesRound the clock response to press and public
5
Personal Briefings to senior Officials (ChiefSecy, VC, NDMA, Cabinet Secy, Home Secy etc
At least once a Day.On 12th frequently
DGM Bulletin 4DGM Bulletin 4National Bulletin 45RSMC Bulletin 27TCAC Bulletin (Text & Graphics) 19Bulletin to Hong Kong website for Aviation DRR 18TC vitals to NWP modelers 10Quadrant Wind 7sms to Senior Govt. Officials 2
LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENTAUTHORITIES
NATIONAL LEVEL :1. CONCERNED MINISTRY2. NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY3. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, WATER, TELECOMAUTHORITIES
4. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA STATE LEVEL :1. CHIEF SECRETARY2. SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER3. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY4. REGISTERED WARNEES5. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS6. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
NATIONAL LEVEL :1. CONCERNED MINISTRY2. NATIONAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY3. HIGHER OFFICIALS LINKED WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENT
INCLUDING PORT, SHIPPING, TRANPORT, WATER, TELECOMAUTHORITIES
4. NATIONAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA STATE LEVEL :1. CHIEF SECRETARY2. SPECIAL RELIEF COMMISSIONER3. STATE DISASTER MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY4. REGISTERED WARNEES5. FISHERMEN, FISHERY OFFICIALS, PORTS, COASTAL SHIPS6. LOCAL PRESS AND ELECTRONIC MEDIA
LINKAGE WITH DISASTER MANAGEMENTAUTHORITIES
DISTRICT LEVEL :
1. DISTRICT COLLECTORS
2. REGISTERED WARNEES
LAST MILE CONNECTIVITY :
CYCLONE WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEM (CWDS) PLACEDAT OFFICE OF BDO/ TEHSILDAR/ SCHOOL/ POST OFFICES
/ CYCLONE SHELTERS
MULTI-LINGUAL CWDS BULLETINS ARE BROADCAST BYPUBLIC ADDRESS SYSTEM BY THE RECEIVING OFFICES
ALL INDIA RADIO
DISTRICT LEVEL :
1. DISTRICT COLLECTORS
2. REGISTERED WARNEES
LAST MILE CONNECTIVITY :
CYCLONE WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEM (CWDS) PLACEDAT OFFICE OF BDO/ TEHSILDAR/ SCHOOL/ POST OFFICES
/ CYCLONE SHELTERS
MULTI-LINGUAL CWDS BULLETINS ARE BROADCAST BYPUBLIC ADDRESS SYSTEM BY THE RECEIVING OFFICES
ALL INDIA RADIO
SOP for Cyclone Warning for each country Synergised SOP within country Synergised SOP for WMO/ESCAP PTC and
Typhoon Committee countries Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for
WMO/ESCAP Panel countries
SOPSOP SOP for Cyclone Warning for each country Synergised SOP within country Synergised SOP for WMO/ESCAP PTC and
Typhoon Committee countries Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for
WMO/ESCAP Panel countries
R&D Workshops and training programmes were conducted successfully
with participation from member countries.
Improved modelling efforts with HWRF and EPS based forecastproducts and the same are shared with Member countries
Storm surge and coastal inundation modelling efforts by INCOIS andIIT Delhi fully utilised for operational forecasting. The same areprovided to Member countries
FDP on landfalling cyclones continuing with participation of Membercountries. Report and results are shared with these countries
WMO SWFDP-SE Asia : RSMC New Delhi acts as regional centre
WMO SWFDP-Bay of Bengal : It is under Planning Process
Workshops and training programmes were conducted successfullywith participation from member countries.
Improved modelling efforts with HWRF and EPS based forecastproducts and the same are shared with Member countries
Storm surge and coastal inundation modelling efforts by INCOIS andIIT Delhi fully utilised for operational forecasting. The same areprovided to Member countries
FDP on landfalling cyclones continuing with participation of Membercountries. Report and results are shared with these countries
WMO SWFDP-SE Asia : RSMC New Delhi acts as regional centre
WMO SWFDP-Bay of Bengal : It is under Planning Process
Published: Annual RSMC Report on Cyclonic Disturbances Annual Cyclone Review Report of WMO/ESCAP Panel countries Annual Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan (TCP-21) WMO/ESCAP Panel News Annual Report of Cyclone Warning Division, IMD and MoES News Letters : IMD, MoES, SMRC Preliminary reports of cyclonic disturbances – circulated to all
member countries Handbook on cyclone warning Publication in reviewed Journals Review Reports of IWTC-8 and IWTCLP-III, Jeju, Korea
(Genesis, Track, Intensity, Structure and landfall processes) Special Issue : Geography and You (Sep-Oct-2014)
Plans Proceedings of National Workshop held in 2014 – complimentary
copies sent to all member countries. Video Film on Cyclones getting ready
PublicationsPublications Published: Annual RSMC Report on Cyclonic Disturbances Annual Cyclone Review Report of WMO/ESCAP Panel countries Annual Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan (TCP-21) WMO/ESCAP Panel News Annual Report of Cyclone Warning Division, IMD and MoES News Letters : IMD, MoES, SMRC Preliminary reports of cyclonic disturbances – circulated to all
member countries Handbook on cyclone warning Publication in reviewed Journals Review Reports of IWTC-8 and IWTCLP-III, Jeju, Korea
(Genesis, Track, Intensity, Structure and landfall processes) Special Issue : Geography and You (Sep-Oct-2014)
Plans Proceedings of National Workshop held in 2014 – complimentary
copies sent to all member countries. Video Film on Cyclones getting ready
Digital program India initiativeDigitisation of RSMC Reports (1990-2014)
Digital program India initiativeDigitisation of RSMC Reports (1990-2014)
Path for 2005-2013:Home /Publications /Annual RSMC Report
Path for 2005-2013:Home /Publications /Annual RSMC Report
Path for (1990-2004):Home / Archive /RSMC Report (1990-2004)
Path for (1990-2004):Home / Archive /RSMC Report (1990-2004)
Digitization of all the available annual reports from 1990 onwardsBy scanning and making the PDF version of the reports.
Views from Disaster Managers and PolicyMakers
• ODISHA SUPER CYCLONE 1999:No accurate forecastNo consistent forecastLead period less than 24 hrsNot very usable and actionable forecastHuge loss of life and property –Economic loss
• VSCS, PHAILIN AND HUDHUD• Minimal loss of life, Substantial saving of economy• Appreciation from all over the globe• National Award to IMD for the first time• You have proved IMD right while others wrong- Vice Chairman,
NDMA
• ODISHA SUPER CYCLONE 1999:No accurate forecastNo consistent forecastLead period less than 24 hrsNot very usable and actionable forecastHuge loss of life and property –Economic loss
• VSCS, PHAILIN AND HUDHUD• Minimal loss of life, Substantial saving of economy• Appreciation from all over the globe• National Award to IMD for the first time• You have proved IMD right while others wrong- Vice Chairman,
NDMA
Views from Media• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES.
The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict thecontours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to do abetter job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclonestudies is needed.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM.The India Meteorological Department, with improved models andobservation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accuratelynot only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES.The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict thecontours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to do abetter job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclonestudies is needed.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM.The India Meteorological Department, with improved models andobservation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accuratelynot only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.
Thank youThank you
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