International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems National Policy Workshop , “ Energy Efficiency policy in Belarus - Role of innovation in promoting the energy efficiency ” , Ma y , 20 16, Minsk Current trends of Energy systems innovative development in Europe Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems Power Engineering and Energy Management Chair Department of Energy, Power Engineering and Environment Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture University of Zagreb, Croatia
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International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
National Policy Workshop, “Energy Efficiency policy in Belarus - Role of innovation in promoting the energy
efficiency”, May, 2016, Minsk
Current trends of Energy systems
innovative development in Europe
Prof.dr.sc. Neven Duić
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Power Engineering and Energy Management ChairDepartment of Energy, Power Engineering and EnvironmentFaculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
University of Zagreb, Croatia
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Security of energy supply• Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030
Employment and regional development policies
• Deindustrialization and trade liberalization
• “Boosting growth and jobs by meeting our climate change commitments”
Mitigation of global warming
Environmental protection
Sustainable development
EU energy context
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Increasing
energy
efficiency
Unsustainable
energy
sources
Sustainable
energy
sources
“Business as usual”
Scenario
Time
En
erg
y d
em
an
d
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
80% lower GHG emissions by 2050 Decarbonising power RES 40%-100% + nuclear + CCS
Buildings – energy neutral from 2018
Electrification of transport
Four pillars of Post carbon society Renewable Energy
Buildings as Positive Power Plants
Energy Storage
Smart grids and Plug-in Vehicles
Torwards 2050
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Decoupling is possible – EU case
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Buildings as Positive Power Plants Buildings – nearly zero energy from 2018
Definition depending on countries
New buildings plus reconstructions (0.5%-3% per year)
Grid parity for PV made it relatively cheap
Heat pumps, district heating/cooling, biomass, smart metering
Phase out of incandescent bulbs in 2012
Energy efficiency labels and standards for appliances
Energy certificates for buildings
Torwards 2050
6
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
7
Decoupling is possible – Danish case
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
3 options for heat sector
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Individual heating
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Heat networks
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Surplus heat today in Europe
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
4th generation district heating Low temperature 60-70/40
Low ratio heating/hot water – continuity of heat load
Heat storage (4 m3/customer)
CHP – follows electricity market
Waste heat from various sources (power plants, waste to energy, industry)
Heat from solar, biomass, gas
Electric heaters – primary reserve market (in future heat pumps, also secondary reserve)
District heating
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Transport Biofuels 10% by 2020 (5% 1st generation)
Average CO2 emissions from new passenger cars per company: 130 gCO2/km by 2015
95 gCO2/km do 2020
Electrification of transport – passenger cars only
Modal shit towards fast rail
Trucks, ships and aviation – biofuels, later maybe synthetic fuels
Torwards 2050
14
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Security of energy supply • EU: Import dependence from 50% to 70% by 2030
• Energy dependence is potentially catastrophic, but primarily reduces day to day independence
• EU has not much fossil fuels left
• Nuclear is good but quite expensive (110 EUR/MWh), politically difficult in some countries, additionally expensive for small countries, even more for new entrants
• Therefore renewables are only available to increase security of supply
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Security of energy supply - renewables• Hydro – excellent but all viable projects have been
made long time ago
• Biomass – excellent but also very much used in EU, any further increase risks food production and environment
• Low solar to electricity efficiency (2% * 20% = 0,4%)
• Only waste biomass and from co-production is sustainable
• Geothermal – complicated and only available in some places
• Wind – available everywhere and cheap
• Solar – available everywhere and getting cheap
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Power sector developments
EU electricity generation installed capacity net change,
2000-2015 [MW], EWEA
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Denmark2015 – 42%
Portugal – 24%
Cape Verde, Ireland, Spain – 20%
Nicaragua – 15% Costa Rica2015, Germany2015 – 13%
Romania – 11% Sweden – 9% EU – 8%
Estonia, UK – 7% Greece, Lithuania, Morocco – 6%
Cyprus, Honduras, India, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, US – 5%
Australia, Austria, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Croatia, France,
New Zealand, Tunisia, Turkey, World – 4%
Belgium – 3%
Brazil, Dominican R, Hungary, Lux., Norway, Uruguay – 2%
Chile, Czech R, Finland, Japan, Latvia, Mexico – 1%
Macedonia, Ukraine – 0.5%
Wind share in electricity demand 2014
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Baseload + wind
20
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Electricity price = marginal cost
Demand
Supply
HE NECoal
Import
Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load
Electricity market
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Demand
Supply
HE
NECoal
Imports
Gas
Fuel oil
Marginal cost
Base load –
windy night
Wind
Electricity price = marginal cost
Electricity market
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Wind and solar: Coal vs. gas?
23
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Consequences of market liberalisation: Demission of base load
The importance of balancing power (gas, hydro)
Cycling of old coal power plants (4000 hours by 2020)
Market arbitrage (time delay, demand management, power-2-heat, power-2-water, e-mobility, power-2-efuels)
Markets and RES
24
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
XX century energy systems: supply follows demand
XXI century energy systems: demand follows supply -> smart energy systems
Demand management
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
26
Power to heat
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Electromobility Only personal cars and short distance utility
vehicles, market in 2015 1.3 mln PHEV and BEV
If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy
Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)
Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand
Demand management
27
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Smart charging
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Energy efficiency in buildings and transport
Wind and solar are coming, but difficult to integrate
Integration of power, heating, cooling, water and transport system necessary
District heating, heat pumps and e-mobility
Conclusions
International Centre for Sustainable
Development of Energy, Water and
Environment Systems
International Centre for Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
Thank you for your attention!
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Շնորհակալություն ուշադրության համար!
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