Current Trends and Future Bioenergy Trends © OECD/IEA 2010 Adam Brown SeniorEnergy Analyst IEA,Paris The State and Future of Bioenergy Tokyo International forum 17 November 2011
Current Trends and Future
Bioenergy Trends
© OECD/IEA 2010
Adam Brown
Senior Energy Analyst
IEA, Paris
The State and Future of Bioenergy
Tokyo International forum
17 November 2011
Topics
� Current Trends in Biomass for Energy
� The Role of Bioenergy in a Sustainable Energy
Future
� IEA Roadmaps on Biofuels and Bioenergy
© OECD/IEA 2010
Trends in Biomass Use for Energy
30
40
50
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
Mto
eOECD liquid biofuels
OECD biogas
OECD primary solid biomass
© OECD/IEA 2010
0
10
20
0
200
400
600
EJ
biomass
Non-OECD liquid biofuels
Non-OECD biogas
Non-OECD primary solid biomass
Recent Trends in Biofuels Production
30
40
50
60
Mto
eEU-27 biodiesel US bioethanol
Brazil bioethanol RoW biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2010
0
10
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mto
e
Recent Trends in Bioelectricity
Production
150
200
250
300
TW
h
© OECD/IEA 2010
0
50
100
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TW
h
United States Germany China Brazil Japan RoW
The IEA Blue Map Scenario – Towards a
Low Carbon Future
© OECD/IEA 2010
� Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy and
climate policies
� BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050
through CO2-price and strong support policies
� Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps
� 23% of global emission savings occur in the transport sector
Biomass use in ETP 2010
� Biomass currently provides around 1100 Mtoe (50 EJ) of primary
energy per year
� 190 Mtoe (8 EJ)/yr of commercial heat and power and 40 Mtoe
(1.7 EJ)/yr of liquid transport fuels
� Traditional biomass accounts for over 800 Mtoe (35 EJ) /yr
� In BLUE Map scenario biomass use increases to around 3400 Mtoe
(145EJ)/yr in 2050.
� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomass
© OECD/IEA 2010
� This will require roughly 7 000 Mt dry biomassFinal Bioenergy Use in ETP 2010 Blue Map
IEA Roadmaps - Bioenergy
� Roadmaps are intended to:
� Highlight pathway(s) to reach large scale use of low-carbon
technologies, consistent with Energy Technology Perspectives 2010
� Focus on the key steps over the next 5-10 years, as well as long-term
milestones, including:
� Identify barriers and obstacles and how to overcome these
� Identify key conversion pathways
� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability
© OECD/IEA 2010
� Key RD&D gaps and how to fill them while ensuring sustainability
� Identify market requirements and policy needs
� Define international collaboration needs
� Biofuels for Transport
� Published April 2011
� Bioenergy for Heat and Power
� Work in progress
� Published Spring 2012
Global Biomass Potential
Pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
© OECD/IEA 2010
� A considerable potential of “low risk” biomass sources has been assessed
� Biomass for biofuel production (65 EJ) could come entirely from residues,
wastes, and sustainably grown energy crops
Source: Adapted from Dornburg
et al., 2008 and Bauen et al.,
2009, and supplemented with
data from IEA, 2010c.
Pri
ma
ry e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision
� Global biofuel supply grows
from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in
2050
� Biofuels share in total
transport fuel increases from
2% today, to 27% in 2050
� Diesel/kerosene-type
biofuels become particularly
Fin
al e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
© OECD/IEA 2010
important to decarbonise
heavy transport modes
� Biofuels could reduce global
transport emissions by 2.1 Gt
CO2-eq. in 2050
� Large-scale deployment of
advanced biofuels will be
vital to meet the roadmap
targets
Fin
al e
ne
rgy
(E
J)
Land RequirementsPressure on agricultural land can be
limited and risk of ILUC can be mitigated
through:
� Productivity improvements
� Use of residues and wastes
� Use of pasture/ unused land
� Potential for wood biomass
� Biomass cascading & biorefineries
© OECD/IEA 2010
� Land required to produce biofuels increases from 30 Mha today to 100 Mha in 2050, in
addition to 1 billion tons of residues
� Sustainable land expansion will be challenging given increasing demand for food
and biomaterial
� Sound policies are needed to ensure sustainability and mitigate risk of indirect land-use
change (ILUC)
� In the long-term, a sustainable land-use management for all agricultural and forestry
land is needed.
� Land-use zoning and sustainable land-
use management schemes
Note: This is gross land demand, excluding land-use reduction potential of co-products
Sustainability of Biofuels
� Sound policies are needed to ensure biofuels are produced
© OECD/IEA 2010
� Sound policies are needed to ensure biofuels are produced
sustainably
� Adoption of internationally aligned sustainability certification for
biofuels
� Certification schemes should be based on international
sustainability criteria (as developed e.g. by the Global Bioenergy
Partnership, GBEP)
� However, most sustainability issues are relevant to the whole
agricultural/ forestry sector
� Ultimately, all agricultural and forestry products should be certified
Key policy actions
� Stability:
� Create a long-term policy framework for bioenergy
� Innovation and Deployment:
� Provide sustained funding for advanced biofuels RD&D and commercial
deployment.
� Support research efforts on land availability mapping and biomass potential
analysis.
© OECD/IEA 2010
� Sustainability:
� Adopt sound, internationally aligned sustainability certification for biofuels.
� Link economic incentives to sustainability performance of biofuels.
� Incentivise use of wastes and residues.
� International Collaboration:
� Engage in international collaboration on capacity building and technology
transfer.
� Promote the alignment of biofuel and other related policies (agriculture,
forestry, rural development).