I HC NNGTRNG I HC KINH TKHOA TI CHNH-NGN
HNG--------------------
BI TP NHM
Cuc khng hong tin t chu 1997 1998: Nguyn nhn v nh hng
GVHD: Nguyn Thiu QuangSVTH: Nhm L2TV1. L Th LoanLp
37K7.1TTQT3_3
2. Trn TonLp 37K7.1TTQT3_3
3. Thnh VinLp 37K7.1TTQT3_3
4. Nguyn Th Diu HuynLp 37K7.3TTQT3_4
5. Trn Th LanLp 37K7.3TTQT3_3
6. Nguyn Th Thu SngLp 37K7.3TTQT3_3
Nng, thng 10 nm 2014
Mc lcLI M U11.MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH21.1.Khi
nim21.2.Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh22.CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU
1997-199832.1. Din bin32.1.1. Thi Lan32.1.2. Indonesia32.1.3. Hn
Quc32.1.4. Philippines42.1.5. Malaysia42.1.6. Hong Kong42.2. Nguyn
nhn52.2.1. Nn kinh t v m yu km52.2.2.Ch t gi khng ph hp62.2.3.S tng
ln ca dng vn nc ngoi72.2.4.Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lot102.3.nh
hng102.3.1. nh hng ti cc nc trong khu vc112.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc
ngoi khu vc132.3.3. nh hng ti Vit Nam132.4.Gii php172.4.1. Tng cng
hp tc trong khu vc172.4.2.Ci cch khu vc ti chnh172.4.3.Huy ng vn h
tr trong v ngoi nc182.4.4.i mi phng php qun l kinh t v m182.5.Bi hc
kinh nghim192.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii192.5.2.Bi hc kinh
nghim cho Vit Nam20DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO22
DANH MC BNG BIUBiu 1: Vn t nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng ,
1990-1996.8Biu 2: T l % gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cng nghip ch bin
ca cc cng ty ti chnh Thi Lan trong tng d n (%).9Biu 3: Mc thu nhp
bnh qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 200212
Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng (%).6Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai
(%GDP)6Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan,
Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t 1991 1996.7Bng 4: N ti chnh ca
khu vc t nhn so vi GDP (%)8Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 19979Bng 6:
Vn t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia
v Philippines), 1991-199610Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h
thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998)11
THANH TON QUC T GVHD: Nguyn Thiu Quang
1. SVTH: Nhm L2TVLI M US pht trin ca h thng ti chnh ton cu bn
cnh vic mang li nhng c hi ln cho mi quc gia, mi dn tc th ng thi cng
tim n nhng nguy c khng hong.Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998 bt u
tthng 7nm1997Thi Lanri nh hng n ccth trng chng khon, trung tmtin
tln, v gi c ca nhng ti sn khc vi ncchu , nhiu quc gia trong c coi
nh l "nhng con H ng ". Cuc khng hong ny cn thng c gi lKhng hong tin
t chu .Indonesia,Hn QucvThi Lanl nhng nc b nh hng mnh nht bi cuc
khng hong ny.Hng Kng,Malaysia,Lo,Philippinescng b nh hng bi s st gi
bt thnh lnh. Cni lc Trung Hoa,i Loan,SingaporevVit Namch b nh hng
rt t.Nht Bncng khng b nh hng nhiu bi s khng hong, song nn kinh t
Nht phi kinh qua nhng kh khn kinh t di hn ca chnh bn thn mnh.Vy ti
sao cuc khng hong ny li din ra? Nguyn nhn do u? Din bin th no? Hu
qu ra sao? Nhng bi hc kinh nghim v nhng gii php khc phc, vt qua
khng hong rt ra c? tr li nhng cu hi trn, nhm chng ti nghin cu k v
trnh by ti theo cc ni dung sau:I. Mt s kha cnh l thuyt v khng hong
ti chnhII. Cuc khng hong tin t 1997-1998:1. Din bin2. Nguyn nhn3.
nh hng4. Gii php5. Bi hc kinh nghimDo kin thc v thi gian cn hn ch
nn khng th trnh khi sai st, rt mong nhn c s ng gp ca thy c v cc bn
bi tiu lun hon chnh hn.
2. MT S KHA CNH L THUYT V KHNG HONG TI CHNH1.1. Khi nimKhng hong
ti chnh (Financial Crisis): L s mt kh nng thanh khon ca cc tp on ti
chnh, dn ti s sp v ph sn dy chuyn trong h thng ti chnh. Khng hong
ti chnh l khi nim bao trm c s dng chung cho mi loi khng hong gn vi
mt cn i v ti chnh v thng l gn vi ngha v phi thanh ton nhiu hn phng
tin dng thanh ton ti mt thi im no .1.2. Mt s loi khng hong ti chnh
Khng hong ngn hng (Banking Crisis): Khi khch hng rt tin t khi ngn
hng, v ngn hng cho vay phn ln s tin gi nn iu ny lm ngn hng kh c kh
nng thanh ton ht cc khon n. S rt tin t v lan rng c th dn ti s ph sn
ca ngn hng, gy ra khng hong ngn hng mang tnh h thng hoc s tng ln ca
li sut tn dng. Khng hong tr nn nghim trng hn khi ngn hng vn cho vay
vo cc d n ri ro cao, khng hiu qu. Kt qu l t l n xu tng, ngn hng mt
vn v ri vo tnh trng ph sn. Khng hong tin t (Currency Crisis):y cn c
gi l khng hong t gi hi oi hay cn cn thanh ton nra khi hot ng u c
tin t dn n s gim gi mt cch t ngt cang ni t hoc trng hp buc cc c
quan c trch nhim phi bo v ngtin ca nc mnh bng cch nng cao li sut
hay chi ra mt khi lng lnngoi hi. Khng hong tin t thng gn lin vi mt
cuc khng hong kinh t thc s. Khng hong kp (Twin Crisis): Xy ra khi
khng hong ngn hng v khng hong tin t i lin vi nhau, ci ny dn n ci
kia. Cc khng hong ti chnh khc: Khng hong th trng chng khon (Crisis
of Security Market), Khng hong n quc gia (National Debt Crisis),
Khng hong ngn sch (Budget Crisis),
3. CUC KHNG HONG TIN T CHU 1997-19982.1. Din bin2.1.1. Thi LanT
nm 1985 n nm 1995, Thi Lan l nc c tc tng trng kinh t cao nht, tc
bnh qun hng nm l 9%. Cui nm 1996, bo co Trin vng kinh t th gii ca
IMF cnh bo nn kinh t Thi Lan tng trng qu nng v bong bng kinh t c th
khng gi c lu. Cng thi gian, th trng chng khon Thi Lan bt u c s iu
chnh, c mc vn ha th trng vn ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim.Ngy 14
v 15/5/1997, ng Baht b tn cng u c quy m ln. Sau khi th ni ng Baht
ngy 2/7/1997, Baht lp tc mt gi gn 50%, n xung mc 56 Baht mi i c 1
USD vo thng 1/1998. Ch s th trng chng khon tt t mc 1280 cui nm 1995
xung cn 372 cui nm 1997. ng thi, mc vn ha th trng gim t 141,5 t USD
xung cn 23,5 t USD. Finance One, cng ty ti chnh ln nht Thi Lan b ph
sn. Ngy 11/8, IMF tuyn b s cung cp mt gi cu tr tr gi 16 t USD v
thng qua mt gi cu tr na tr gi 3,9 t USD vo 20/8.2.1.2.
IndonesiaThng 8/1997, ng Rupiah b gii u c tn cng, n ngy 14, p dng
ch t gi th ni hon ton, ng Rupiah lin tc mt gi. Thng 9, c gi Rupiah
ln ch s th trng chng khon u gim xung mc thp lch s. Trc khng hong, t
gi hi oi gia Rupiah v USD khong 2000USD/IDR, nhng trong thi k khng
hong, t gi ln n 18000USD/IDR.Rupia mt gi lm suy yu bng cn i ti sn
ca cc cng ty Indonesia, c bit l khon mc n ngn hng nc ngoi tng ln.
Do , nhiu cng ty y mnh mua USD vo, bn Rupia ra, khin ni t thm mt gi
v t l lm pht tng vt. Lm pht km chnh sch ti chnh tht cht khin chnh
ph phi b tr gi lng thc v xng, lm gi 2 mt hng ny tng ln. Tnh trng bo
ng tranh ginh mua hng bng pht, ring Jakarta c 500 ngi cht do bo
ng.Do thay i t gi hi oi v do nhiu nhn t khc,GDPtheo Dollar M ca
Indonesia gim i.2.1.3. Hn Qucu thng 11/1997, cc nh u t bt u bn chng
khon hn quc vi quy m ln. Ngy 28/11/1997, t chc nh gi tn dng Moody h
th hng ca Hn Quc t A1 xung A3, ngy 11/12/1997 li h tip xung B2. iu
ny gp phn lm gi chng khon Hn Quc thm gim gi. Ngy 3/11/1997 t gi
Won/USD l 966,2 n ngy 10/12/1997 tng ln l 1450. ng Won mt gi lin
tc, s mt gi nhanh chng ca ng Won buc ngn hng trung ng Hn Quc cng b
th ni ng Won. ng thi c s ci thin trong cn cn thanh ton, mc thng d
thng 11/1997 l 600 triu USD, so vi mc thm ht ca cng k nm trc l 2,07
t gi USD2.1.4. PhilippinesCui thng 6 u thng 7/1997, t nhng kh khn
ni ti ca nn kinh t nht l vic thm ht ln trong cn cn vng lai (13%
GDP) v tc ng khng hong t Thi Lan, Ngn hng trung ng Philippin b ra
khong 2 t USD bo v ng Peso.Ngy 1/7/1997 Ngn hng trung ng Philippin
cng b ni rng bin giao ng t gi ng Peso vi ng USD m thc cht l s ph gi
ng tin khng chnh thc nh Thi Lan. D tr ngoi t ca Philippin vo thng
4/1997 ch c mc 13,6 t USD. y qu l t i bo v ng Peso => ng Peso mt
gi2.1.5. MalaysiaNgay sau khi Thi Lan th ni ng Baht (2/7/1997),
ngRinggit ca Malaysia v th trng chng khon Kuala Lumpur lp tc b sc p
gim gi mnh. Ringgit gim t mc 3,75 USD/MYR xung cn 4,20 USD/MYR.
Nhng ngi tham gia th trng tin duy tr ti khon bng ng Ringgit trng
thi bn ra nhiu hn mua vo, vi d tnh v s gim gi ca ng Ringgit trong
tng lai. Kt qu l li sut trong nc ca Malaysia gim xung, khuyn khch
dng vn chy ra nc ngoi. Lng vn chy ra t ti mc 24,6 t Ringgit vo qu
hai v qu ba nm 1997.2.1.6. Hong KongThng 10/1997, Dollar Hong Kong
b tn cng u c. C quan Tin t Hong Kong chi hn 1 t USD bo v ng tin ca
mnh. T ngy 20/10 n 23/10, Ch s Hang Seng gim 23%. Ngy 15/8/1998,
Hong Kong nng li sut cho vay qua m t 8% ln 23% v ngay lp tc nng vt
ln 50%. ng thi, C quan Tin t Hong Kong tuyn chin vi gii u c, bt u
mua vo cc loi c phiu thnh phn ca Ch s Hang Seng gim p lc gim gi c
phiu. Chnh quyn mua vo khong 120 t Dollar Hong Kong cc loi chng
khon. Cuc khng hong ny ngng li vo thng 9/1998. T gi gia Dollar Hong
Kong v Dollar M vn c bo ton mc 7,8 USD/HKD.2.2. Nguyn nhn2.2.1. Nn
kinh t v m yu kmThi Lan v mt s nc ng c gng thc hin B ba chnh sch
khng th ng thi. H va c nh gi tr ng tin ca mnh vo la M, va cho php t
do lu chuyn vn (t do ha ti khon vn). Kinh t ng tng trng nhanh trong
thp nin 1980 v na u thp nin 1990 to ra sc p tng gi ni t. bo v t gi
c nh, cc ngn hng trung ng ng thc hin chnh sch tin t ni lng. Kt qu l
cung tin tng gy ra sc p lm pht. Chnh sch v hiu ha (sterilization
policy) c p dng chng lm pht, v hnh chung y mnh cc dng vn chy vo nn
kinh t.1. H thng ngn hng - ti chnh yu km: H thng kim tra, kim sot
ni b cc nc ng dn n mt lng n lng vng khng l m khng kp pht hin kp
thi. Cc nc c th trng tin t khng hong u c mc nhp siu qu ln, trong
khi t l d tr ngoi t trn n nc ngoi qu thp. Trong nm 1996, t l ny ca
Hn Quc l 31%, Indonesia ch khong 12%, Thi Lan l 43,1%,S yu km ca h
thng ngn hng do cc nguyn nhn ch yu sau:1. Chnh ph cc nc c s can
thip (mc khc nhau) vo hot ng kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng v cc cng ty
ti chnh nhm hng cc hot ng ngn hng vo h tr cho chnh sch pht trin
kinh t. Khi cc ngn hng cho vay theo ch o ca chnh ph th lun tn ti mt
tm l li, gi nh ngm rng chnh ph s bo lnh v cu gip nu khon vay khng c
i. iu ny dn n c ch gim st, quy nh v hot ng thn trng c coi nh, vic
qun l tn dng lng lo v m rng qu mc khin cho hiu qu kinh t thp.1. Bn
thn cc ngn hng chm tr trong vic i mi hot ng v bo th trong vic hin i
ha cc hot ng nghip v ca mnh v ph thuc rt ln vo s tr gip ca chnh
ph.S yu km trong hot ng ca h thng ngn hng ti chnh th hin trc ht
trong vic qun l v cp tn dng trong nc c coi l km hiu qu v khng cht
ch, tc cho vay vt qu tc tng tin gi.Bn cnh , lng ln vn tn dng c u t
vo lnh vc i hi vn ln nhng chu k vn chm l bt ng sn v u t chng khon,
cc khon tn dng ny do nhiu l do khng c m bo. V vy, khi nn kinh t b
nh n, xut khu gim st lm cho cc doanh nghip vay vn khng c kh nng hon
tr, cc t chc ngn hng n b vc ph sn.Ngoi ra, cc ngn hng cn chm tr
trong vic a ra gii php i ph vi tnh trng di chuyn vn ngoi t mt cch
kh t do. Chnh sch qun l ngoi hi lng lo to iu kin cho s chuyn i d
dng gia ng bn t v ngoi t, dn n khng kim sot c s ri i ca cc dng vn
do s bn tho ng ni t i ly USD khi xut hin cc du hiu bt n trn th trng
tin t. Mt cn i v m:Nm 1996, tc tng trng kinh t ca cc nc ng bt u
chng li, tng trng trong xut khu ca ng Nam gim xung mt cch nhanh
chng lm cho ti khon vng lai b suy yu, nguyn nhn bao gm: (i) Tng
trng thng mi ton cu suy gim. (ii) ng yn mt gi. (iii) T gi hi oi thc
hin hiu dng ca cc nc ng ln gi. (iv) Lng cu v gi ca cc mt hng xut
khu, c bit l in t suy gim.Bng 1: Tng trng xut khu ng
(%).1994199519961997
Thi Lan1920-13
Hn Quc142345
Malaysia202161
Indonesia81297
Philippines17241421
Hong Kong111344
Ngun: NHTG, East Asia The Road to Recoverty, 1998.in hnh nh Thi
Lan, thm ht ti khon vng lai nc ny vo 1996 ln n 8% GDP, trong khi
con s ca 4 nc cn li khong 3,4-4,8%.Bng 2: Thm ht ti khon vng lai
(%GDP)199419951996
Hn Quc-0.96-1.74-4.42
Thi Lan-5.59-8.05-8.05
Malaysia-6.07-9.73-4.42
Indonesia-1.58-3.18-3.37
Philippines-4.6-2.67-3.77
Ngun: NHTG, Ch s pht trin th gii nm 2002.2.2.2. Ch t gi khng ph
hpNu yu km v m l nhng nguyn nhn su xa dn n khng hong th cc chnh sch
neo gi gia cc ng tin khu vc vi ng USD, to nn mt h thng t gi khin
cng l nguyn nhn ch yu dn ti vic ph gi hng lot cc ng tin khu vc. Mc
d khi pht t vic c nh ng Baht Thi Lan dn n hiu ng lan ta sang cc ng
Peso, Ringgit v Rupiah, nhng thc t, cc ng ni t ny b gim gi trc xu
hng ngy cng tng ca ng USD. Vic duy tr t gi hi oi c nh mt cch cng
nhc theo USD ca Thi Lan v cc nc ng Nam m nn kinh t c du hiu chng li
hoc i xung, trong khi nn kinh t ca M ang pht trin khin cho cc nc ny
thay v thc hin chnh sch th ni ng ni t, tr li gi ch thc ca n li phi
tiu tn hng chc t USD c gng duy tr mc cn bng gi to ti mc khng th kim
gi c na. c bit l Thi Lan, vic 13 nm lin Chnh ph Thi Lan duy tr t gi
c nh gia ng Baht v USD (khong 25 Baht/1USD) l ht sc phi kinh t, bi
trong khong thi gian ny, cc qu trnh kinh t th gii v khu vc din ra
rt mnh m, ng la M ngy cng mnh ln, ng Baht yu dn, cho n trc thi im
xy ra khng hong, ng Baht gim xung cn 30,27 Baht/1USD. Li dng iu ny,
cc nh u t nng cu USD ln 100 ln so vi bnh thng v y t gi vt xa t gi
thc. Kt qu ng Baht b b gy.2.2.3. S tng ln ca dng vn nc ngoiChnh sch
tin t ni lng v vic t do ha ti chnh M, chu u v Nht Bn u thp nin 1990
khin cho tnh thanh khon ton cu tr nn cao qu mc. Cc nh u t cc trung
tm tin t ni trn ca th gii tm cch thay i danh mc ti sn ca mnh bng
cch chuyn vn u t ra nc ngoi. Trong khi , cc nc chu li thc hin chnh
sch t do ha ti khon vn theo hng khuyn khch dng vn nc ngoi ngn hn. V
d nh chnh sch ca Hn Quc l hn ch u t nc ngoi di hn di dng FDI hay u
t chng khon, trong khi ch cho php cc ngn hng vay ngn hn nc ngoi. T
gi hi oi c nh m nhiu chnh ph ng duy tr cng l yu t khuyn khch dng vn
nc ngoi do ri ro t gi c loi b. Li sut cc nc chu cao hn cc nc pht
trin. Chnh v th, cc dng vn quc t t chy vo cc nc chu .T nm 1994 n
1997, lng vn t nhn chy vo cc nc ang pht trin tng 5 ln t 42 t USD ln
256 t USD. ng l ni thu ht mt lng ln dng vn ny, chim khong 60% trong
na u thp nin 1990 (theo NHTG 1998).Bng 3: Vn t nhn nc ngoi u t vo
nm nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Indonesia, Malaysia v Philippines) t
1991 1996.(VT: T USD)199119921993199419951996
- Vn t nhn rng24.829.031.836.174.265.8
+ u t trc tip rng6.27.37.68.87.58.4
+ u t chng khon rng3.26.417.29.917.420.3
+ Vay thng mi v u t khc15.415.37.017.449.237.1
- Vin tr chnh thc rng4.42.00.60.30.7-0.4
Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 5/1998 v 3/2000.Biu 1: Vn t
nhn nc ngoi chy vo 5 nc ng , 1990-1996.
Ngun: Tnh ton t NHTG World Development Indicator 2002.Mt khc,
nhng xc tin u t ca chnh ph v nhng bo h ngm ca chnh ph cho cc th ch
ti chnh cng gp phn lm cc cng ty chu bt chp mo him i vay ngn hng,
trong khi cc ngn hng bt chp mo him i vay nc ngoi m phn ln l vay n
ngn hn v n khng t bo him ri ro.Dng vn nc ngoi to nn s bng n tn dng
trong khu vc. Trong thp nin 1990, tn dng ngn hng cp cho khu vc t
nhn tng ln nhanh chng. T cui nm 1996, tng gi tr n ti chnh ca khu vc
t nhn trn GDP ln ti 140% Hn Quc v Thi Lan. Mc cung tin M2 Hn Quc,
Thi Lan, Phillippines, Malaysia v Indonesia tng gn 20%/nm trong nm
1996 v 1997.Bng 4: N ti chnh ca khu vc t nhn so vi GDP
(%)Nc199119921993199419951996
Hn Quc103.1110.7121.3128.8133.5140.9
Thi Lan88.698.4110.8128.1142.0141.9
Ngun: Radelet (1998).iu nguy him hn l Chnh ph khng kim sot c n
ca cc Ngn hng v doanh nghip cng nh khng xy dng c khun kh php lut v
nng lc gim st trong qu trnh t do ha ti chnh. Trong c ch qun l yu km
ny, c doanh nghip sn xut ua nhau vay n mt cch liu lnh, s n vt qu
tng s vn ca doanh nghip t 200% n 400%.im ng lu na l hu ht cc khon
vay nc ngoi ngn hn c u t di hn. N ngn hn nc ngoi lun lun ln hn so
vi d tr ngoi t ca cc nc ng vo thi im trc khi xy ra khng hong, c
ngha l trong ngn hn nn kinh t s khng c kh nng chi tr. Ch c 2 nc
Malaysia v Phillipines trong s 5 nc b khng hong c n ngn hn thp hn d
tr ngoi t.Bng 5: N ngn hn vo qu II nm 1997NcN ngn hn nc ngoiD tr
ngoi tT l n ngn hn
Hn Quc70.1834.072.06
Thi Lan45.5731.361.45
Indonesia34.6620.341.7
Malaysia16.2726.590.61
Philippines8.299.780.85
Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 1999.Mt t trng ln cho vay
ca ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng c tp trung vo khu vc bt
ng sn. Indonesia, cc khon vay khu vc bt ng sn tng 37%/ nm trong
giai on 1992-1995 (tng tn dng ngn hng ch tng 22%/nm). Thi Lan, cc
khon cho vay bt ng sn tng 41%/nm trong giai on 1990-1995 (tng tn
dng ch tng 33%/nm). Hn Quc, cc khon cho vay ca ngn hng tp trung ch
yu vo cc tp on ln. T l n/vn c phn ca cc doanh nghip cng nghip Hn
Quc ln ti 317% vo cui 1996 (trong khi M l khong 100%)Biu 2: T l %
gi tr cho vay bt ng sn v cng nghip ch bin ca cc cng ty ti chnh Thi
Lan trong tng d n (%).Ngun: Marcus Miller and Pongsak Luangaram
(1998).2.2.4. Hot ng tn cng u c v rt vn ng lotNguyn nhn trc tip ca
khng hong tin t Chu nm 1997 l nhng cuc tn cng u c v vic rt vn ng
lot khi cc nc chu . Khi pht hin nhng du hiu suy thoi ca h thng ngn
hng ti chnh khu vc, nhiu nh u c nc ngoi tng cng hot ng u c tin
t.Theo thng k, nhiu nh u c trong tng s 2300 qu tn dng t nhn M, vi
ti sn trn 100 t USD nhy vo th trng khu vc ny trong thng 7 v 8/1997.
Ngoi cc qu do Soros kim sot cn c cc qu tn dng ln nh Tiger, Orbis,
Pumas, Panther v Jaguar. H mua ng Baht, Peso, Ringgit, Rupiah, SGD
c tnh 10-15 t USD u c, d tr ngoi hi nh nc cn kit cng lm cho tn cng
u c thm ko di.Cui cng th th trng bt ng sn ca Thi Lan v. Mt s th ch
ti chnh b ph sn. Ngi ta khng cn tin rng chnh ph kh nng gi ni t gi
hi oi c nh. Khi pht hin nhng im yu nghim trng trong nn kinh t cc nc
chu , mt s th ch u c v m tin hnh tn cng tin t chu . Cc nh u t nc
ngoi ng lot rt vn ra.ng ri vo tnh trng cc nh u t khng cn tin rng d
tr ngoi t tr n ngn hn. C cc nh u t nc ngoi ln trong nc u mun chuyn
vn ra. Ngn hng i li vn cho vay, t chi o n v ngng cho vay mi; cn cc
nh u t chng khon th bn chng khon, i ra ngoi t v chuyn ra ngoi. Ring
trong nm 1997, hn 20 t USD rng c a ra khi 5 nc ng b khng hong,
trong khi trong nm 1996 vn cn nhn c gn 66 t USD. (Bng di).Bng 6: Vn
t nhn nhn nc ngoi 5 nc ng (Hn Quc, Thi Lan, Malaysia, Indonesia v
Philippines), 1991-1996VT: T USD.1996199719981999
- Vn t nhn rng65.8-20.4-25.6-24.6
+ u t trc tip rng8.410.38.610.2
+ u t chng khon rng20.312.9-6.06.3
+ Vay thng mi v u t khc37.1-43.6-28.2-41.1
- Vin tr chnh thc rng-0.417.919.7-4.7
Ngun: NHTG, World Economic Outlook, 3/2000.2.3. nh hng2.3.1. nh
hng ti cc nc trong khu vc nh hng tiu ccCuc khng hong tin t nm 1997
khin cho nn kinh t ri vo tnh trng suy thoi, tc tng trng gim st trm
trng thm ch b m (-). Ngoi ra s ph gi ng tin ca cc nc ng Nam gy ra
hu qu nghim trng lu di v tc ng xu n mi hot ng ca i sng kinh t x hi
ca cc t nc.1. Thi gian trc v trong cuc khng hong, cc nc u phi tiu
tn s lng ngoi t ln chng , gi cho ng tin khng b mt gi qu mc. in hnh
nh:1. Thi Lan s dng ti 15 t USD trong tng s 33 t USD d tr ngoi t ca
Nh nc cu nguy cho ng Baht,1. Philippines cng s dng 20% tng s d tr h
tr cho ng peso. 1. Cc nc khc nh Malaysia, Indonesia cng s dng nhiu
t la M vo mc ch ni trn.1. Hn 20 ng bn t b ph gi lm tng cc chi ph n,
n nc ngoi tnh bng ngoi t tng ( khong 25-40% ty theo mc ph gi ca ng
tin). C th, n nc ngoi ca Thi Lan t 85 t USD ln 119 t USD; Malaysia
t 29 t ln 36,5 t USD; Philippines t 43,5 t ln 54,4 t USD; Indonesia
t 109,3 t ln 150,5 t USDng tin b mt gi, nn kinh t v m khng n nh dn
ti s rt vn t ca cc nh u t, ngi cho vay trong nc v ngoi nc khin ngun
vn tn dng cn kit, th trng chng khon trm lng. Hng lot cc ngn hng,
cng ty ti chnh thua l nng n v lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng thanh ton
hoc b ph sn, gii th, st nhp.Bng 7:Tnh trng thua l v ph sn trong h
thng ti chnh (1/4/1997-31/3/1998)NcTng s NHS NH b nh ch hot ngS NH
b CP gim stS NH b st nhpS NH bn cho Nh nc% S NH c vn
Thi Lan10856459%
Malaysia604168%
Indonesia22816561136%
Hn Quc561632%
Ngun: ADB, Asian Development Outlook, 19991. H thng ti chnh v gy
sc p ln ti lm pht. T l tht nghip tng vt, ch ring Thi Lan sau khng
hong khin 2 triu ngi mt vic lm, t l tht nghip Philippines t 9,5%
(nm 1996) tng ln 10,4% (nm 1997), ti Hn Quc t 2,5% (nm 1997) tng vt
ln 8,6% (thng 7/1998). ng thi thu nhp bnh qun u ngi st gim mnh, cho
n nm 2002 vn cha th hi phc bng mc ca nm 1996.Biu 3: Mc thu nhp bnh
qun/ngi nm 1996 so vi nm 2002
Ngun: World ban Developmen Indicators 2004Cui cng khc phc c hu
qu t cuc khng hong, n nh nn kinh t cc quc gia ny phi tiu tn mt lng
ti chnh rt ln, theo c tnh xp x 10% GDP. y l kh khn ln nht khng th
gii quyt ngay c trong mt thi gian ngn. nh hng tch ccCuc khng hong
khng ch hon ton gy tc hi m mt chng mc no , n l im dng m u giai don
mi y trin vng:- Vic chuyn sang chnh sch t gi linh hot s gip cc chnh
ph gim thiu c lng ngoi t can thip gi gi bn t nh thi gian trc , gip
tng d tr quc gia v lu di, ng thi gim gi ng bn t gp phn khuyn khch
xut khu, hng xut khu ca cc nc ny c thm cnh tranh ln trn th trng quc
t nht l trong tng quan so snh vi cc mt hng cng loi ca cc nc trong
khu vc c ng tin n nh hn.- Cc yu t u vo tnh bng ngoi t, bao gm tin
lng, t ai, dch v, gim mt cch tng i cao so vi cc nc khc nn khi khng
hong kt thc th chnh cc nc ny li c li th thu ht vn u t, c u t trc
tip v u t gin tip.- Nu xt v lu di, th y l dp cc nc ny rt ra c bi hc
iu chnh li cc chnh sch v m, iu chnh li c quan pht trin kinh t. Nhng
kt qu ca cc ci cch ny s to ng lc thc y s pht trin mt cch bn vng
hn.2.3.2. nh hng ti cc nc ngoi khu vcCuc khng hong tin t Chu c nhng
nh hng nghim trng khng nhng i vi nn kinh t ca cc nc trong khu vc m
i vi c cc nc khc trn th gii c bit l M. 1. Cuc khng hong lm cho th
trng xut khu ca M b co li do ng la ln gi, nn kh nng cnh tranh ca
hng ho M gim xung. Ngi ta tnh rng t nht th trng xut khu ca M gim
25%, bao gm phn ln l th trng ca cc nc b khng hong. iu ny lm cho tnh
trng nhp siu ca M ngy cng trm trng. Nm 1997, M nhp siu l 176 t USD,
cao hn nhiu so vi 148 t USD ca nm 1996. 1. ng thi hng nhp khu vo M
tr nn r mt cch tng i do ng tin ca cc nc b ph gi so vi ng la M. iu
lm cho gi c trn ton b th trng M phi gim xung theo, tc l lm cho li
nhun ca cc nh sn xut M gim v u t kinh doanh cng gim. 1. Ngoi ra, cc
nc khng hong phi thi hnh chnh sch tht cht tin t khc phc cuc khng
hong theo iu kin ca IMF nn h khng c kh nng tr s tin mua v kh hoc
phi ko di thi hn thanh ton cho nhng hp ng vi M. 2.3.3. nh hng ti
Vit NamL mt quc gia nm trong khu vc khng hong, trong bi cnh quc t
ho cao nh hin nay, r rng Vit Nam khng trnh khi nhng tc ng trc tip v
gin tip, ngn hn v di hn, tt v xu ca n n tt c cc lnh vc kinh t - x
hi ca t nc. V thng miSo vi cc nc, t trng thng mi ca Vit nam vi cc
nc trong khu vc Chu ng mt vai tr ht sc quan trng. Theo cc s liu c
tnh th khong 70% kim ngch mu dch ca Vit Nam l vi cc Chu v ch yu c
thanh ton bng USD hoc vng. Nhng khi ng tin cc nc b ph gi mnh s tc
ng xu ti cc doanh nghip c quan h kinh doanh vi cc nc trong khu vc.
Ngoi tr ng la Singapore v ng Yn Nht mi b mt gi trn di 20%, cn cc ng
tin khc trong khu vc b ph gi t 80% n 250% so vi ng USD. Trong khi
ng tin Vit Nam mi ch mt gi cht t, khong trn 10% so vi ng USD. V nhp
khu: Hng nhp khu t cc nc ASEAN vo Vit Nam vi mc r gn nh tng ng vi
mc ph gi ca ng tin cc nc. Do hng nhp t cc nc s ln t hng ni ca chng
ta ngay ti th trng Vit Nam. Chnh iu ny khuyn khch cc nh xut khu ca
cc nc tng lng hng bn sang Vit Nam, ng thi khuyn khch cc doanh nghip
Vit Nam nhp hng do gi r hn bng c hai con ng chnh ngch v tiu ngch
(bun lu qua bin gii). Hin nay, cc doanh nghip trong c nc ta cn tn
kho nhiu hng ca cc nc s b l nng v gi cc hng ho ny gim nghim trng.
Tuy nhin i vi cc mt hng nh cc loi vt t, nhin liu, my mc phc v cho
sn xut u c nhp khu kh d dng nh thu sut thp, r rng y l mt li m cuc
khng hong trong khu vc em li cho Vit nam. Theo bo co ca B thng mi
gi my mc thit b gim t 20- 40% so vi trc khi xy ra khng hong, gi
nguyn liu nha gim 10- 30%, linh kin in t gim 10-30%, bng x cc loi
gim 10-15%. y thc s l iu kin thun li cho cc doanh nghip Vit nam tn
dng gim chi ph u vo . V xut khu: i vi th trng cc nc ASEAN kim ngch
xut khu ca Vit nam chim t trng khng di 20%, th trng Chu chim 40%
trong tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit nam. Tnh chung, Cc mt hng xut khu
ch yu gm : du th, than , cao su, c ph ht, go, dt may, da giy v hi
sn . Do ng ni t ca cc nc b khng hong mt gi hn so vi ng Vit Nam nn
theo nguyn l xut khu hng ho ca Vit nam sang cc nc ny s b hn ch do
gi ca cc hng ho ny tr ln t tng i v nhu cu ni a ti cc nc b khng hong
gim st. Mt khc c cu hng xut khu ca Vit nam cng ging nh c cu hng xut
ca cc nc ASEAN do chc chn v xut khu ca Vit nam hin ti v trong tng
lai s c s st gim ng k. Do vy ngun thu t xut khu s gim v hai yu t :
Th nht, gi xut khu h th doanh nghip nh sn xut hng xut khu c th phi
ngng sn xut v doanh thu khng trang tri cho cc yu t u vo. Th hai,
nhng doanh nghip ln c th tm c th trng khc khi b p gi, nhng lng xut
khu gim i, ng thi doanh thu cng gim xung do gi xut khu h. Ring su
thng cui nm 1997, li tc ca Vit Nam ch tnh t xut khu ca mt hng nng
sn b mt khong 500 triu USD. ng thi, do gi c dch v, sinh hot hin nay
Vit Nam cao tng i,nn lng khch du lch vo Vit Nam cng b gim mnh i vi
Ngn sch Nh nc V thu ngn sch : Nh phn tch phn trn, do tc ng ca cuc
khng hong lng hng nhp s c xu hng gia tng v vy thu thu t nhp khu s
tng ln. Song theo chng ti, xt v di hn th mc tng thm s khng nhiu v m
bo cc iu kin cho qu trnh hi nhp v kinh t Vit nam phi ct gim hng lot
thu cc mt hng nhp khu. Do tc ng ca cuc khng hong s dn n thu ngn sch
Nh nc c hai hiu ng tri ngc nhau : Mt l : c kh nng tng thu thu xut
nhp khu. Hai l : gnh nng n nn v chi ph nguyn vt liu tng ln c th lm
cho cc doanh nghip sn xut Vit nam b nh n thm ch l ph sn v nh vy tc
ng ca khng hong s lm gim thu ngn sch V chi ngn sch : Trong thi gian
ti do VN mt gi 10-15% do nh hng ca cuc khng hong ln vic chi ngn sch
Nh nc s tng ln i ph vi lm pht c th ln cao v chi tr n nc ngoi. Cc
khon n tnh bng VN ca Nh nc v cc doanh nghip s tng ln do VN mt gi s
l gnh nng cho cc doanh nghip v Nh nc, lm gim ng k d tr quc t ca Vit
nam. i vi lnh vc Ti chnh Ngn hng Sc p gim gi ng Vit Nam trn th trng
hi oi:Do ng tin ca cc nc trong khu vc mt gi t 30-70% nn trn thc t
VN ln gi so vi ng tin cc nc ny v gy sc p ph gi. Thc t, tm l lo s VN
ph gi dn n vic vi vng chuyn t VN sang USD tch tr, y t gi USD trn th
trng t do tng mnh trong mt thi gian, c thi im ln ti 1USD=14.600 VN.
i ph li NHNN phi dng nhiu bin php i ph nh tung ngoi t ra bn, nng mc
bin dao ng, tng cng cc bin php kim sot ngoi hi. nh hng n c cu tin
gi ca h thng ngn hng:Cuc khng hong gin tip tc ng mnh ti c cu tin gi
gia ng Vit Nam v ngoi t. Vo thi im u nm 1998, lng tin gi bng VN tng
chm trong khi tin gi bng ngoi t tng kh nhanh ( k c tin gi ca dn c v
ca cc doanh nghip). Nhiu doanh nghip gi li ngoi t trn ti khon m
khng bn li cho NHNN trnh ri ro do s mt gi ca VN. Tnh hnh ny gy nn s
mt cn i gia cung cu ngoi t to sc p khng nh ti t gi VN v gy nhng xo
trn bt n trn th trng ngoi hi nc ta. Tc ng n hot ng giao dch ngoi
tGiao dch trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng cng nh th trng ngoi t ni
chung b gim st. Trn th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng tnh t u nm n thng
3/1998, cc hot ng giao dch c chiu hng gim st , cc ngn hng thng mi
ch tin hnh mua vo m khng bn ra ngoi t dn n cu vt xa cung gy mt cn i
cung cu ngoi t t gy sc p tng li sut v d lm mt n nh h thng ngn hng.
Doanh s mua 6 thng cui nm 1997 t 2,5 t USD, gim 5% so vi 6 thng u
nm; doanh s bn t 2,6 t USD gim 1% so vi 6 thng u nm. Tng gnh nng v
n cho cc doanh nghipKhng hong tin t tc ng tng t gi hi oi gin tip lm
tng thm cc khon n nc ngoi. c bit l cc khon n n hn thanh ton, nhiu
doanh nghip khng mua c ngoi t hoc phi mua vi gi cao chu l rt ln. T
gi tng t bin cng gy kh khn cho cc doanh nghip trong khi gi hng ha
trong nc khng tng nhiu. Gy sc p vi li sut ng Vit NamNgoi t tng gi
mnh lm nhu cu vay vn ng Vit Nam do li sut thp hn v trnh ri ro v t
gi song khi nhu cu vay vn bng VN tng ln gy mt cn i cung cu v tin
trn th trng, to sc p tng li sut ng ni t. nh hng khng nh ti chnh sch
li sut nhm khuyn khch u t kinh doanh sn xut i vi nn kinh t.1. Tt c
cc mc nh hng trn ti lnh vc Ti chnh e da s mt n nh ca h thng Ngn hng
Vit Nam. Th hin s kh khn ca cc NHTM v huy ng vn, kh nng thanh ton
trong nc v quc t. i vi lnh vc u t i vi u t trong nc:Nu sn xut hng
tiu th trong nc khng nhp nguyn liu t bn ngoi th khng chu nh hng g.
Trong trng hp u t sn xut hng xut khu khng nhp NVL t nc ngoi th nh u
t s c hng li nhun do VND b mt gi so vi USD. T ngn sch nh nc s tng
ln. Bn cnh hot ng huy ng vn ca Ngn hng gp nhiu kh khn nn ngn hng mi
ch p ng c c khong 45-46% nhu cu v vn cho cc doanh nghip quc doanh.
Trong khi vic cc nc trong khu vc ph gi ng ni t lm cho hng sn xut t
cc nc ny tr ln r tng i v cnh tranh gay gt vi hng sn xut ca Vit Nam.
Nh vy cuc khng hong lm cho vic u t m rng sn xut ca cc doanh nghip
gp kh khn do thiu vn v b cnh tranh gay gt bi hng ho r t cc nc trong
khu vc. i vi u t trc tip ca nc ngoi:S gim st u t trc tip vo Vit Nam
t cc nc ang chu tc ng trc tip hoc c lin quan n cuc khng hong. Bi ng
tin ca h b mt gi, s khng c li th nu chuyn i ra USD u t ra nc ngoi.i
vi cc nc khc trn th gii, v c bn lu di cc nh u t s nhn nhn khu vc
Chu trong c Vit Nam nh mt khu vc pht trin khng n nh. Do mi trng v m
khng sc li ko h u t vn, cng ngh v k thut qun l vo. Tc ng i vi tin
trnh hi nhp kinh t Vit nam vo AFTA , APEC v WTO. Theo cc mc tiu ca
AFTA : tng chu chuyn thng mi ni b gia cc nc ASEAN v th thng lng cnh
tranh thng mi ca ton ASEAN vi th gii, to lp khu vc hp dn u t trc
tip nc ngoi vo khu vc v lm cho nn kinh t ASEAN thch ng vi mi bin i
ca nn kinh t th gii.. th cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t trong khu vc
hon ton nh hng n mc tiu v cc nh hng t ra. Do tin trnh rt ngn thi hn
thc hin AFTA ca mt s nc thnh vin trong bi nh hin nay l ht sc kh
khn. V vy i vi Vit nam tin trnh hi nhp vo nn kinh t khu vc v th gii
bng vic gia nhp ASEAN, APEC, WTO chc chn s khng trnh khi nhng tr
ngi.2.4. Gii php2.4.1. Tng cng hp tc trong khu vcNgay t nhng thng u
xy ra khng hong, cc nc trong khu vc tm ra gii phi l phi hp, on kt
vi nhau to ra sc mnh tng hp, cng nhau vt qua khng hong. S hp tc ny
c c th ha bng vic thnh lp nhng th ch ti chnh- tin t cho khu vc nh
Qu tn dng chu , Ngn hng thanh ton b tr a bin ASEAN, hay tha thun
gia cc b trng ti chnh ASEAN v vic khuyn khch s dng ng bn t trong
thanh ton cc giao dch thng mi ni b ASEAN trn c s cc tha thun song
phng nhng vn ly gi tr ng USD tham kho t gi chuyn i gia cc ng tin,
tng cng, xc tin vic trao i trc tip hng ly hng.2.4.2. Ci cch khu vc
ti chnhCc nc ng thc thi cc bin php, chnh sch sau ci cch khu vc ti
chnh:1. Xa v gim n xu, ti vn ha cc th ch ti chnh1. ng ca cc th ch
ti chnh v1. Tng cng gim st v p dng cc tiu chun qun tr, k ton mi i
vi cc t chc tn dng v ti chnh khc1. y mnh chuyn mn ha cc th ch ti
chnhTng cng gim st v iu tit cc t chc tn dng ng thi nng cao tnh k
lut trn th trng2.4.3. Huy ng vn h tr trong v ngoi ncS h tr ti chnh
khn cp ca cng ng quc t l nhn t c hiu lc tc th v mnh m nht ch ng cuc
khng hong, trnh s lan rng v hu qu lu di trong v ngoi nc. Da vo chng
trnh h tr IMF, WB v cc t chc ti chnh quc t khc.i vi Thi Lan, nc chu
tc ng mnh m nht, vo giai on u ca khng hong, sau nhng c gng vn ng
khu vc v quc t ti phin hp IMF ch tr Tokyo thng 8/1997, cc t chc ti
chnh quc t cam kt h tr cho ngc ny 17,2 t USD, trong IMF v Nht Bn mi
bn gp 4 t USD, ngn hng th gii (WB) v ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) gp
2,7 t USD; Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Hng Kong, Trung Quc mi
bn gp 1 t USD, Hn Quc, Brunei mi bn gp 500 triu USD. ng lu l nhn
khon tn dng ny, chnh ph Thi Lan phi chp nhn gii php c gi m IMF a
ra: Vi ngn sch, Thi Lan phi tng thu VAT t 7-10%, va gim chi tiu
10%; ng ca cc cng ty ti chnh yu km v duy tr d tr ngoi t t nht 25 t
USD; gi t l lm pht 8-9%; gim thm ht ti khon vng lai xung cn 5% GDP
trong nm 1997 v 3% GDP trong nm 1998; ci t c cu v st nhp mt s ng ch
ti chnh.i vi Hn Quc th sao? nhanh chng khc phc khng hong, chnh ph
ku gi cc t chc ngn hng nc ngoi h tr ti chnh, cng c ngun vn u t
trong nc. Theo cng b ca IMF, vo u thng 12/1997 t chc ngn hng quc t
v cc nc khc ng cho Hn Quc vay 57 t USD. Hot ng ca IMF tr nn tch cc
hn khi Hn Quc b cun vo vng xoy khng hong v khi ng Rupiah mt gi mnh.
i ly cc khon h tr, ngoi nhng cam kt nh Thi Lan, cc nc ny cn phi thc
hin nhng chnh sch m ca lnh vc ngn hng.2.4.4. i mi phng php qun l
kinh t v mHn Quc, Thi Lan v Indonesia v ang thc thi mt ch t gi hi
oi linh hot v c ch n nh gi c. C th, cc nc t b ch t gi hi oi neo v
hng ti ch mc tiu lm pht. ng thi, cc nc n lc gia tng lng d tr ngoi
hi nh nc ca mnh. T 1997 n 2005, nm nc b nh hng nng nht ca khng hong
tng lng d tr ngoi hi ca mnh ln bn ln, t 378 t USD.2.5. Bi hc kinh
nghim2.5.1. Bi hc kinh nghim cho th gii Phi c cng c iu tit lung
vnDo thiu cc bin php kim sot, cc nc chu ri vo tnh trng qu ph thuc
vo nn ti chnh bin ng t bn ngoi- chnh l cc khon vay ngn hn. Cui nm
1996, cc nc ng n ngn hng Chu u 328 t USD, ngn hang Nht bn 260 t USD
v ngn hng M l 46 t USD v hu ht cc khon vay u l vay theo hnh thc ngn
hn (< 1 nm ).Khi cuc khng hong xy ra, cc ngun vn ngn hn bin mt
nhanh nh khi xut hin v khng h c mt cng c iu tit hp l no dnh cho n.
Vn t do ha th trng vn cng rt quan trng, khng phi tnh c 2 nc chu l n
v Trung Quc t b nh hng bi cuc khng hong m v 2 quc gia ny khng t do
ha th trng vn. Ngoi ra, trong c nc t do ha th trng vn th cng khng
phi ngu nhin nh nc khng ch tt nht tc ng ca khng hong , Singapore
chnh l nc c h thng php lut c thc thi tt nht. Cn xy dng hnh lang php
l ph hpS gp khng t ri ro khi m ca nn kinh t ca cc nc ang pht trin
vi th trng vn quc t m cha xy dng h thng php lut vng chc v i ng cn b
lim khit.Thi im trc nm 1997, h thng gim st tn dng ca ngn hng qu lng
lo dn n s pht trin qu mc ca th trng tn dng nhiu nc chu nh
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Hn Quc v Thi Lan ko theo vic u t
d tha vo mt s ngnh kinh t. Vic d tha ngun vn tn dng cn dn n tnh
trng lng ph, vi cuc chy ua s hu ta nh cao nht th gii cc nc chu l mt
v d. T hn vic tha tin u t cn dn ti tnh trng pht trin bong bong ca
th trng bt ng sn, t quay li thi trng tn dng, v cc ngn hng li cho
vay nhiu hn gi tr th chp, nn khi khng hong xy ra, hn ai ht ngn hng
phi hng chu hu qu nng n nht.Vic gim st lng lo ca ngn hng cn cho php
cc ngn hng c t l vn lu ng khng ph hp. Theo s liu nm 1997 ca ngn hng
thanh ton quc t (BIS) th Philippines l 17%, Hong Kong 18% v
Singapore l 19%, cc t l ny cao hn rt nhiu so vi tiu chun ti thiu
quc t. Nguy c d tha vnS mt cn bng trn th trng ti chnh th gii khin
chnh ph ca cc nn kinh t mi ni kh c th ngn chn trong tm kim sot ca
h. Ngn kh ca hu ht cc nc Chu hoc cn bng hoc thng d, v khng h c lm
pht. Cuc khng hong xy ra phn nhiu nguyn nhn do nhng thay i v m hnh
hot ng ca trung gian ti chnh quc t.Th nht, s m rng ng k ca kh nng
thanh ton quc t trong thp nin 90 lm gia tng tnh cnh tranh trong dch
v ti chnh trn ton th gii. V th cc gim c ti chnh buc phi nhng khon
li nhun cao hn thng qua cc d n u t mo him. Th hai l chnh sch kinh t
v m ca cc cng quc ng vai tr quan trng trong s m rng ca kh nng thanh
khon quc t.1. Tuy nhin tnh trng mt cn bng ny khng ko di , vic tng
ngun vn gia tng sc p i vi vic tng t gi hi oi, t lm trm trng thm tnh
trng thm ht thng mi. V khi th trng to sc p gim gi ng tin, cc nh u t
t ngt rt vn, khin tnh hnh kinh t ti chnh chu chao o.2.5.2. Bi hc
kinh nghim cho Vit NamKhi khng hong xy ra, Vit Nam l mt nc khng b
cun ht vo vng xoy ca n, v m ca cha rng v s ch ng vt trc ngn chn.
Nhng trn mt s mt th tc ng ca cuc khng khong l khng h nh.Lng vn u t
trc tip nc ngoi ng k gim manh, nm 1997 l 5.591 triu USD ti nm 1999
cn 2.565 triu USD. Lng vn thc hin nm 1998-1998 cng gim nhng t hn.
Tc tng kim ngch xut nhp khu cng gim nhanh, tc tng GDP cng gim st, t
8.15% xung cn 4.77%. Trong thi gian tng ng tc tng trng cng nghip xy
dng v dch v cng gim, tc tng gi tiu dung li ln cao, lng khch quc t
cng b gim st, lng kiu hi thp.t thc t cho Vit Nam nhng bi hc ng nh
:1. Vit nm cn phi c chin lc , quy hoch v cc bin php s dng vn vay nc
ngoi , l ODA vay ngn hn v di hn mt cch hiu qu nht v m bo hon tr ng
thi hn. Vit Nam cn c h thng lut php , qun l nh nc cht ch qun l vn
cc khon vay nc ngoi ngy cng gia tng. Khuyn khch vay vn nc ngoi di
hn, hn ch v qun l cht ch vn ngn hn, thn trng vi nhng lung vn ngn hn
chu chuyn t.1. Cn duy tr mt th cn bng tng i gia cc mc tiu kinh t v
m trong chin lc pht trin kinh t nh : lm pht, tng trng, t gi hi oi,
li sut, ngn sch, cn cn thng mi v cn cn thanh ton . Cc chnh sch nn c
phi hp ng b, cht ch vi nhau t c hiu qu tt nht.1. S thm ht cn cn vng
lai l vn c nhiu quc gia nhc ti, nn cn c quan tm v c nhng bin php iu
chnh thch hp.1. Tip tc i mi v m ca nn kinh t, xy ng nn kinh t th
trng hin i, quc t ha nn kinh t, xy dng lc lng bn trong vng chc c th
chng chi vi cc tnh th nguy cp ca nn kinh t bn ngoi. 1. Lc chn mt
cch ph hp v tp trung cc mc tiu u tin trong qu trnh pht trin, la chn
vng, ngnh, sn phm,th trng, quy m d n, nh nc nh hng u t theo c cu v
quy m hp l nht pht trin ton x hi.1. S pht trin ca th trng phi i km
vi pht trin h thng cc ngn hng mnh, c kinh nghim trong vic iu chnh
chnh sch tin t trong kinh t th trng1. Va m rng cnh ca th trng vn,
nhng khng c php lng lo trong vic qun l v cc quc gia nn duy tr nhng
t l hp l nh quan h vn trong nc vi vn nc ngoi; quan h gia vn ngn hn,
trung hn v di hn khi gi vn nc ngoi; quan h gia thi hn vay v vn c u
t
DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO1. Tp ch Kinh tquc t January / February
1998 trang 9-111. Vit Nam trc cuc khng hong tin t khu vc _ PTS.
Nguyn Th Luyn1. Khng hong ti chnh ng : M hnh khng hong ti chnh th h
th ba. Nguyn Xun Thnh Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright.1. Khng
hong ti chnh m hnh l thuyt v nhng nguy c i vi Vit Nam trong qu trnh
hi nhp hin nay. L Vn Anh. Tp ch khoa hc i hc Quc gia H Ni, Kinh t -
Lut 24 (2008) 55-65.1. Khng hong ti chnh chu 1997 - mt gc nhn. Lu
Qu Phng, 6/2007.1. Trang web ca Diplomatic academy of VietNam:
http://www.dav.edu.vn/en/Truy cp vo ngy 21/10/2014
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