cultural heritage knowledge - EIB Instituteinstitute.eib.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Prof-Peter-Nijkamp... · Megatrends – The New Urban World • Rising urbanization everywhere

The Entrepreneurial

City 2050

The Connected City 2050

The Liveable

City

2050

The Pioneer

City 2050

knowledge

innovation

technology

social diversity

cultural heritage

creativity

learning

17

SPACE IN TRANSITION • Peter Gould (1963):

- Man against Nature

- Locational patterns

• Lucassen and Willems (2011):

- Challenge and Response

- Adaptation and rising urbanisation

• Kourtit and Nijkamp (2012):

- Globalisation and migration

- Agglomeration advantages and creative cities

THE NEW URBAN WORLD

URBANISATION: A GLOBAL DESTINY • Megatrends:

- Exponential growth world population

- Rural-urban

- Spiky spatial dynamics

- New geographical heartlands

- Every week a city the size of Amsterdam is emerging

• 3 Revolutions:

- Rural to urban shift (Tellier 2009)

- Industrial Revolution based on increasing returns

- Urban networks (ICT) and mega-cities

URBANITY AND RURALITY ARE FUZZY CONCEPTS

Megatrends – The New Urban World • Rising urbanization everywhere (not every city)

• Cities as ‘the home of man’

• Urban areas as centres of development and of concerns

• Pluriformity in urban appearance and socio-economic development

• Dominance of sustainability conditions (XXQ, Nijkamp, 2010)

• No natural or economic limit to city size

• The law of Van Loon (1932)

• Smart specialisation

• Need for effective long-range policy responses

• Challenges for Regional Science

THE LAW OF VAN LOON (1932)

"If everybody in this world of ours were six feet tall and a foot and a half wide and a foot thick, then the whole of the human race …………….could be packed into a box measuring half a mile in each direction“.

H.W. van Loon, Van Loon’s Geography, The Story of the World We Live in, Simon & Schuster,

New York (1932), p.3

Density

+

Proximity

Efficiency +

Productivity

Growth +

New Cities

Population +

Migration

Investment +

Jobs

A CIRCULAR CAUSALITY MODEL OF PERSISTENT URBAN GROWTH

DYNAMICS IN URBAN SYSTEMS

• Regularity in chaos, (e.g. Zipf): - Hierarchy and rank-size (Reggiani and Nijkamp) - Entropic conditions (Wilson)

• Complexity (Bertuglia and Vaio): - Agent-based modelling - Social cognitive analysis - Urban way of life as new societal paradigm - Self-regulation vs planning • Self-organisation on the basis of economic principles - Macro - Micro

3 FOCAL POINTS OF CITY GROWTH • Migration

• Ageing

• Knowledge (OECD 2009) - Progress for All - OECD Long Boom - Uneven Progress - Globalization Falters - Decoupled Destinies

MEGACITIES: ‘BLESSING IN DISGUISE’

CITIES AS MAGNETS FOR XXQ ADVANTAGES OF DENSITY AND PROXIMITY • AGGLOMERATION BENEFITS (ISARD, HOOVER)

- SCALE

- LOCALISATION (THISSE) - URBANISATION • KNOWLEDGE BASE AND SPILLOVERS (CAPELLO, STOUGH) - R&D - ENTREPRENEURSHIP • CREATIVENESS (FLORIDA, SCOTT) - INNOVATION - NEW LIFE STYLE - COMMUNICATION RESOURCE BASE • PHYSICAL (ADAM SMITH) • HUMAN RESOURCES (SASSEN) LEARNING • INTERACTION • EVOLUTION (BOSCHMA) • COMPLEXITY (NIJKAMP & REGGIANI) • IMAGINEERING (RATCLIFFE)

STRIKING FACTS ON URBAN WORLD • ‘The new urban century’: a structural phenomenon

• Double urbanization: big cities grow into mega-cities (including political power) and medium-sized cities grow even faster into big cities

• Urbanisation continues despite shrinking cities

• Emergence of Megacities: competitive advantages (opportunities for various stakeholders)

• Polynuclear morphological structures all over (Fractal Maps)

• Santa Fe hypothesis (Geoffrey West) (‘15% rule’) Urban scaling: efficiency and performance rise with city size (15 percent efficiency rise for doubling of cities)

China’s Pearl River Delta (largest mega-city in the world with more than 80 million people)

The European Blue Banana