V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected]This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 1 CTL.SC0x - Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts Document This document contains the Key Concepts for the SC0x course. The document is based on a past run of the course and does not include all the material that will be included in this course; please check back for newer versions of the document throughout the course. These are meant to complement, not replace, the lesson videos and slides. They are intended to be references for you to use going forward and are based on the assumption that you have learned the concepts and completed the practice problems. The draft was created by Dr. Alexis Bateman in the Spring of 2017. This is a draft of the material, so please post any suggestions, corrections, or recommendations to the Discussion Forum under the topic thread “Key Concept Documents Improvements.” Thanks, Chris Caplice, Eva Ponce and the SC0x Teaching Community Spring 2017 v1
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V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 1
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 2
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 3
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 4
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 5
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 6
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 7
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 8
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 9
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 10
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 11
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 12
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 13
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 14
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 15
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 16
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 17
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 18
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 19
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 20
o Thesearealldeterministicmodels–dataassumedperfect&unchanging.o Optimizationmodelswilldoanythingforadollar,yuan,peso,euro,etc.
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 21
o Runmultiple“what-if”scenarioschanginguncertaininputvaluesandtestingdifferentconditions.
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 22
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 23
Algorithm:1. setmax=0andi=12. selectitemiinthelist3. ifv(i)>max,thensetmax=v(i)4. ifi<N,thenseti=i+1andgotostep2,otherwisegotostep55. end
Output:
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 24
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 25
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 26
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 27
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 28
Indices Demandnodesi VehicleroutesjInputData Cj=Totalcostofroutej($) Di=Demandatnodei(units) V=Maximumvehicles aij=1ifnodeiisinroutej; =0otherwiseDecisionVariables Yj=1ifroutejisused, =0otherwise
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 29
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 30
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 31
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 32
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 33
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 34
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 35
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 36
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 37
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 38
E[X]= x = µ = pixii=1
n∑
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 39
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 40
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 41
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 42
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 43
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“X follows a triangle distribution with a minimum of a, maximum b, and a mode of c, ~T(a, b, c)”
22
f (x) =
0 x < a
2 x - a( )b- a( ) c- a( )
a £ x £ c
2 b- x( )b- a( ) b- c( )
c £ x £ b
0 x > b
ì
í
ïïïï
î
ïïïï
a bc
2(b- a)
x
E xéë ùû=a+b+ c
3
Var xéë ùû=118
æ
èç
ö
ø÷ a2 +b2 + c2 - ab-ac-bc( )
P x > déë ùû=b- d( )2
b- a( ) b- c( )
æ
è
ççç
ö
ø
÷÷÷
for c £ d £ b
d = b- P x > déë ùû b- a( ) b- c( ) for c £ d £ b
Characteristics• Good way to get a sense of an unknown distribution• People tend to recall extreme and common values• Handles asymmetric distributions
pdf:
cdf:
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 45
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 46
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 47
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 48
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 49
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 50
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 51
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 52
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 53
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 54
yi = b0 +b1xi for i =1,2,...nei = yi − yi = yi −b0 +b1xi for i =1,2,...n
ei2( )i=1
n∑ = yi − yi( )
2
i=1
n∑ = yi −b0 −b1xi( )
2
i=1
n∑
= y −b1x b1 =(xi − x )(yi − y)i=1
n∑
(xi − x )2
i=1
n∑
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 55
Yi = β0 +β1x1i + ...+βk xki +εi for i =1,2,...nE(Y | x1,x2 ,...,xk ) = β0 +β1x1 +β2x2 + ...+βk xkStdDev(Y | x1,x2 ,...,xk ) =σ
ei2( )i=1
n∑ = yi − yi( )
2
i=1
n∑ = yi −b0 −b1x1i − ...−bk xki( )
2
i=1
n∑
TotalSumofSquares
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 56
o sx=Standarddeviationoftheindependentvariables=numberofobservations
• Thet-statistic
o k=numberofindependentvariableso bi=estimateorcoefficientofindependent
variable
ErrororResidualSumofSquares
CoefficientofDeterminationorGoodnessofFit(R2)
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 57
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 58
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 59
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 60
V1 Spring 2017・CTL.SC0x – Supply Chain Analytics Key Concepts・MITx MicroMasters in Supply Chain Management MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics・Cambridge, MA 02142 USA ・[email protected] This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. 61