CARBON TAX 7-SECTOR MODEL This version of the model was created on: It supersedes all prior Created for the Carbon Tax Center by Charles Komanoff For more on the Carbon Tax Center, click: To e-mail Komanoff, click: This spreadsheet is Web-downloadable at It is baselined to actual U.S. energy-use data through 2013. For link to McDermott bill click here [link in June 2014]: For our commentary on McDermott bill click here: To change the pre-set carbon-tax rates, Page Down once, or cli To view key results, Page Down twice, or click: For graph of CO2 reductions over time, click: For graph of reductions in petroleum usage over time, click: For graph of carbon tax revenues (total, and per household) cl To access Index, which links to all 22 "tabs" in spreadsheet, Summary CARBON TAX 7-SECTOR MODEL, by Charles Komanoff, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. here [email protected] http://www.komanoff.net/fossil/CTC_Carbon_Tax_Model.x We suggest you not use Google docs to view/run the model. Use Excel (PC or Mac) instead. If error message, "Cell reference is circular," appears when you load the file: you'll need to alter an Excel setting. To see how, click: here This version of the model is pre-inputted for a carbon tax that begins in 2015 at $12.50 metric ton ("tonne") of CO2 and increments thereafter by $12.50/tonne (inflation-adjusted year. These inputs correspond to a bill introduced by Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) in May 20 here here here here here here here here This spreadsheet models the impacts of a national carbon tax on U.S. carbon emissions from fos combustion , along with impacts on petroleum use , and generation of carbon-tax revenues . The mo divides carbon emissions into seven sectors: Electricity, Personal Ground Travel, Freight, Avi Other Natural Gas, Other Petroleum Products, and Miscellany. The spreadsheet estimates the likely reductions in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from implemen either a "straight" carbon tax (levied on the carbon contents of coal, oil and natural gas) or carbon tax" that supplements the straight carbon tax with a per-gallon tax on selected petrole products (e.g., gasoline and aviation fuel).
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SummaryCARBON TAX 7-SECTOR MODEL This version of the model was created on:7/16/141.00It supersedes all prior versions.2.003.00CARBON TAX 7-SECTOR MODEL, by Charles Komanoff, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.4.005.006.007.00Created for the Carbon Tax Center by Charles KomanoffThere are 5 graphs in this spreadsheet. Here are thumbnails of two.8.009.00For more on the Carbon Tax Center, click: here10.00To e-mail Komanoff, click:[email protected] spreadsheet is Web-downloadable athttp://www.komanoff.net/fossil/CTC_Carbon_Tax_Model.xlsx13.00It is baselined to actual U.S. energy-use data through 2013.14.0015.00We suggest you not use Google docs to view/run the model. Use Excel (PC or Mac) instead.16.0017.00If error message, "Cell reference is circular," appears when you load the file: you'll need to alter an Excel setting. To see how, click:here18.00To view above graph in full size, not just thumbnail, click: here19.0020.00This version of the model is pre-inputted for a carbon tax that begins in 2015 at $12.50 per metric ton ("tonne") of CO2 and increments thereafter by $12.50/tonne (inflation-adjusted) per year. These inputs correspond to a bill introduced by Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) in May 2014. 21.0022.00
24.00For link to McDermott bill click here [link in June 2014]:here25.00For our commentary on McDermott bill click here: here26.00To change the pre-set carbon-tax rates, Page Down once, or click:here27.00To view key results, Page Down twice, or click:here28.00For graph of CO2 reductions over time, click: here29.00For graph of reductions in petroleum usage over time, click: hereTo view above graph in full size, not just thumbnail, click: here30.00For graph of carbon tax revenues (total, and per household) click: here31.00To access Index, which links to all 22 "tabs" in spreadsheet, click:hereTo view graph of reductions in petroleum usage, click: here32.00
Summary34.0035.00This spreadsheet models the impacts of a national carbon tax on U.S. carbon emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, along with impacts on petroleum use, and generation of carbon-tax revenues. The model divides carbon emissions into seven sectors: Electricity, Personal Ground Travel, Freight, Aviation, Other Natural Gas, Other Petroleum Products, and Miscellany.36.0037.0038.0039.00The spreadsheet estimates the likely reductions in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from implementing either a "straight" carbon tax (levied on the carbon contents of coal, oil and natural gas) or a "hybrid carbon tax" that supplements the straight carbon tax with a per-gallon tax on selected petroleum products (e.g., gasoline and aviation fuel).40.0041.0042.0043.00You, the user, select levels of both taxes below. Setting the supplemental petrol tax to zero eliminates hybrid aspect. 44.0045.00Emissions are expressed in CO2 (rather than carbon) and, for the most part, in metric terms. However, carbon tax rate is inputted in dollars per British (short) tons of CO2, not metric tons (tonnes).46.0047.0048.00Inputs49.0050.00Magenta-colored cells may be entered by you, the user. LEAVE OTHER CELLS ALONE, to avoid inadvertently altering the formulas that directly or indirectly determine their value.51.0052.0053.00A. Select time period over which tax is to be applied54.00Year in which tax takes effect (tax is assumed to begin Jan. 1, hence it 'covers' full year; must exceed 2013)201555.00Last year in which tax level is incremented (after which tax remains in effect at level reached in year selected)203856.0057.00B. Now select initial carbon tax, per short ton (not metric ton) of CO2 emitted (not carbon)$11.3458.0059.00C. Next, choose between two different ways to increment tax. Click on box directly to right, and input "1" or "2".160.0061.001. If you selected '1,' the initial tax amount in Cell J58 above will increment each year at the uniform annual rate shown in Cell J62. Consider this a 'linear' growth path.$11.3462.0063.00(Example: if initial rate in Row 58 box is $10, and increment rate in Row 62 box is $5, then Year 2 tax rate would be $15, Year 3 rate $20, etc.)% figure is irrelevant if Option 1 was chosen in box in Row 6064.00 or or or or or or or or or65.002. If you selected '2,' initial tax will be compounded annually at % rate chosen. Consider this a 'geometric' growth path.4.0%66.0067.00(Example: with compound growth rate of 10%, along with initial tax rate of $10, the second-year tax rate would be $11.00, third-year rate $12.10, next year $13.31, etc.)68.00Model assumes avg annual 2012-2040 inflation rate of 1.82% and GDP growth rate of 2.44%. See 'AEO' page for source and details.69.0070.00D. Specify whether changes in carbon tax level after initial year are expressed in "real" dollars (inflation-adjusted to a specified base year) or "nominal" dollars (unadjusted for inflation, so that impact of tax is attenuated by inflation). Nominal is default.Real71.0072.00Default is . Enter to instead index carbon tax to inflation.73.0074.00E. Now select surtax rate, if any, on certain liquid fuels (in /gal, to be applied in tax's initial year):0 /gal75.00This is an optional surtax to the carbon tax. It is incremented per choice made via 'switch' in Cell J60. If '1' is selected, the annual increment is only for inflation, and this requires that was entered in J71. If '2' is selected, tax is compounded at percent given in Cell J66.76.0077.0078.0079.00F. Also select which fuels are subject to this (optional) surtax (all are subject to carbon tax, regardless)D O N O T T Y P E I N A N Y O F T H E C E L L S I N T H E M A G E N T A A R R A Y B E L O W . T H E Y A R E C A L C U L A T E D A U T O M A T I C A L L Y F R O M Y O U R " R A T E " A N D " Y E A R " I N P U T S I N C E L L S A T L E F T .80.00GasolineDieselAviation fuelOtherIs year equal to or greater than tax-start year?NONOYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES81.00YESNOYESNOIs year equal to or greater than final tax year?NONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONONO82.000012345678910111213141516171819202122232483.00Shown at right are each year's carbon tax levels resulting from your choices above (figures are per short ton (not metric ton, or tonne) of CO2 emitted2012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203884.00By statuteTax charged in year shown, per ton of CO2 emitted.Tax level, by statute:$0.00$0.00$11.34$22.68$34.02$45.36$56.70$68.04$79.38$90.72$102.06$113.40$124.74$136.08$147.42$158.76$170.10$181.44$192.78$204.12$215.46$226.80$238.14$249.48$260.82$272.1685.00In nominal $$ the actual levied taxReflects inflator (escalator) if Cell J71 was set to . Inflator starts in first tax year and applies to entire tax.Tax level, in nominal $$:$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2386.00In 2012 dollarsIs included because it figures in estimation of impact of carbon tax on energy demand and supply in "sector" tabs.Tax level, in 2012 dollars:$0.00$0.00$10.74$21.44$32.08$42.68$53.23$63.73$74.18$84.58$94.94$105.25$115.51$125.72$135.89$146.01$156.09$166.12$176.10$186.03$195.92$205.77$215.56$225.32$235.02$244.6887.0088.00ResultsAs percentsAs million tonnes CO2/yAs percentsAs barrels/day (1,000)89.00in Tax's 10th Yearin Tax's 10th Yearin Tax's 10th Yearin Tax's 10th Year90.001. CO2 Emission Projections, "Snapshots"for 2020for 20201B. Petroleum Requirementsfor 2020for 202091.00Vis--vis actual 2005 emissions:-26.7%-33.4%-1,560-1,960Vis--vis actual 2005 requirements:-19.6%-23.4%-4,160-4,96092.00Vis--vis what emissions will be without a carbon price:-20.6%-28.7%-1,110-1,570Vis--vis what requirements will be without a carbon price:-12.0%-17.7%-2,330-3,49093.00Note: U.S. CO2 emissions for 2013 were already approximately 9% below 2005 emissions.94.0095.00Sectors' Projected 10th-tax-yr Emissions, vis--vis Actual 2005 EmissionsSector %'s of the Overall Reduction (vis--vis "Otherwise" Emissions in 10th tax yr)96.0097.0098.00Emission Reductions Projected for Carbon Tax's 10th Year, Broken down by SectorNote: We skip 2014 since data for it aren't yet available.99.00100.00Electricity Generation-43%57%101.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational boats, vehicles, etc.)-17%13%Tax Year:123456789101112131415161718192021222324102.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)-19%6%103.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)-14%2%Figures in column apply either to 2007 or throughout.Figures in column apply either to 2007 or throughout.Figures in column apply either to 2007 or throughout.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to est'd or actual data.This and later years pivot off first tax year.104.00"Other" Petroleum Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn, etc.)-19%6%Columns extend through 2038. Beyond that point (and likely before) the tax rate would almost certainly be adjusted.105.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)-31%14%106.00Miscellany (non-electric coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)-14%2%107.00Total-29%100%200520062007200820092010201120122013201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038108.00109.002. Annual EmissionsSectors' Shares of Overall 2013 Reduction from 2005Note: 2005-2013 rise in "other" natural gas is probably due to increased oil/gas extraction, rising penetration of gas in heating, and unusually cold U.S. temps in 2013 (19% more Heating Degree Days than in 2012).185110.000.0347922787111.00Actual and Projected, without carbon taxSectors' Shares of CO2ActualActualActualActualActualActualActualActualActualProjected112.00CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax200520135,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,3235,3445,3605,3765,3925,4085,4245,4395,4545,4705,4825,4915,5005,5095,5185,5275,5375,5465,5565,5655,5755,5845,5945,607113.00Electricity Generation41%39%67%2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0532,0612,0622,0632,0652,0662,0682,0692,0702,0722,0732,0742,0692,0632,0572,0512,0452,0402,0342,0282,0222,0172,0112,0052,000114.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)20%21%15%1,1971,1881,1681,1141,1141,1121,0931,0981,1151,1151,1241,1331,1421,1511,1601,1691,1781,1881,1971,2051,2131,2221,2301,2391,2471,2561,2651,2731,2821,2911,3001,3091,319115.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)9%9%2%510526556531477501496493498498500502504506508510512514516518519521522523525526528529530532533534536116.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)4%4%6%233230229214193201202198200203204205206207209210211212213214215216217218219220221221222223224225226117.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)11%11%14%645629654640597612608586569564562559557554552549547544542539535532529526523520517513510507504501498118.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)9%12%-20%541527549537501513510586647647656661666671675679683687691694702709716724731738746753761768776783791119.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)5%4%15%316313295279242267255239235236236236236237237237237238238238238238238238237237237237237237237237237120.00Change in Total Actual CO2 emissions from 2005 baseline-1.4%0.4%-2.9%-9.8%-6.5%-8.9%-10.6%-9.2%121.00122.00Actual and Projected, with carbon tax taking effect in 2015123.00CO2 emissions, million metric tons, with carbon tax incremented at levels inputted above5,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,0784,8844,7104,5564,4184,2944,1814,0783,9843,8973,8153,7373,6653,5983,5353,4763,4213,3683,3193,2723,2273,1853,1453,108124.00Electricity Generation2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0531,9101,7821,6711,5741,4881,4121,3431,2801,2231,1711,1241,0771,035995958924891861832805779755732709125.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)1,1971,1881,1681,1141,1141,1121,0931,0981,1151,0911,0771,0641,0521,0421,0321,0221,0141,006999991984977971965959954949945940936933929926126.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)510526556531477501496493498485475466458450443437431425420414409405400396392388384381377374371368366127.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)233230229214193201202198200198195193191189188186185184184183182181181180180180179179179179179179180128.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)645629654640597612608586569549533519505493481470460451441432423415407399392385378372366359354348343129.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)541527549537501513510586647614593572554538523510498488478469462455449444439434430426422418415412409130.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)316313295279242267255239235231228224221218215213210207205202200197195193191189187185183181179177175131.00Change in Projected CO2 emissions from 2005 baseline-9.2%-13.3%-16.6%-19.5%-22.2%-24.5%-26.7%-28.6%-30.3%-32.0%-33.4%-34.8%-36.2%-37.4%-38.5%-39.6%-40.6%-41.6%-42.5%-43.3%-44.1%-44.9%-45.6%-46.3%-46.9%132.00Projected, with carbon tax taking effect in 2015133.00Change in CO2 due to carbon tax, relative to moving trajectory, million metric tons(245)(460)(650)(820)(974)(1,114)(1,242)(1,361)(1,470)(1,572)(1,667)(1,754)(1,835)(1,911)(1,983)(2,051)(2,116)(2,178)(2,237)(2,293)(2,347)(2,399)(2,449)(2,498)134.00Electricity Generation(151)(280)(392)(490)(578)(656)(726)(790)(848)(902)(951)(991)(1,028)(1,062)(1,093)(1,122)(1,148)(1,173)(1,196)(1,217)(1,237)(1,256)(1,274)(1,290)135.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)(24)(47)(69)(90)(109)(128)(147)(164)(182)(198)(214)(230)(245)(259)(274)(288)(302)(315)(329)(342)(355)(367)(380)(393)136.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)(13)(25)(36)(46)(56)(65)(73)(82)(89)(96)(103)(110)(116)(122)(128)(133)(138)(143)(148)(153)(157)(162)(166)(170)137.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)(4)(8)(12)(15)(18)(21)(24)(26)(28)(30)(32)(33)(35)(36)(38)(39)(40)(41)(42)(43)(44)(45)(45)(46)138.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)(15)(29)(40)(51)(61)(70)(79)(87)(94)(100)(106)(112)(117)(122)(127)(131)(135)(138)(142)(145)(148)(151)(153)(156)139.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)(33)(63)(89)(112)(133)(152)(169)(185)(199)(213)(225)(240)(254)(267)(280)(292)(304)(316)(328)(339)(350)(361)(371)(382)140.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)(4)(8)(12)(15)(18)(22)(25)(28)(30)(33)(35)(38)(40)(42)(45)(47)(49)(51)(53)(54)(56)(58)(60)(61)141.00142.002. Annual Emissions, continuedTax Year:123456789101112131415161718192021222324143.00144.00 For graph of CO2 reductions over time, click: here200520062007200820092010201120122013201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038145.00146.00Change in CO2 in that year, relative to same year's CO2 if no carbon tax, expressed as a percent.-4.6%-8.6%-12.1%-15.3%-18.1%-20.6%-22.9%-25.0%-27.0%-28.7%-30.4%-31.9%-33.4%-34.7%-35.9%-37.1%-38.2%-39.3%-40.3%-41.2%-42.1%-43.0%-43.8%-44.6%147.00Electricity Generation-7.3%-13.6%-19.0%-23.8%-28.0%-31.7%-35.1%-38.2%-40.9%-43.5%-45.8%-47.9%-49.8%-51.6%-53.3%-54.8%-56.3%-57.7%-59.0%-60.2%-61.4%-62.5%-63.5%-64.5%148.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)-2.2%-4.2%-6.1%-7.8%-9.5%-11.1%-12.6%-14.0%-15.3%-16.6%-17.8%-18.9%-20.0%-21.1%-22.1%-23.1%-24.0%-24.9%-25.8%-26.6%-27.5%-28.3%-29.0%-29.8%149.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)-2.6%-5.0%-7.2%-9.2%-11.0%-12.8%-14.4%-15.9%-17.3%-18.7%-19.9%-21.1%-22.3%-23.4%-24.4%-25.3%-26.3%-27.2%-28.0%-28.8%-29.6%-30.4%-31.1%-31.8%150.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)-2.2%-4.1%-5.8%-7.4%-8.8%-10.1%-11.2%-12.2%-13.2%-14.0%-14.8%-15.5%-16.2%-16.8%-17.3%-17.8%-18.2%-18.6%-19.0%-19.3%-19.7%-19.9%-20.2%-20.4%151.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)-2.7%-5.1%-7.2%-9.2%-11.1%-12.8%-14.3%-15.8%-17.2%-18.5%-19.8%-20.9%-22.0%-23.1%-24.1%-25.0%-25.9%-26.8%-27.6%-28.4%-29.1%-29.9%-30.6%-31.2%152.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)-5.1%-9.6%-13.4%-16.8%-19.8%-22.5%-24.9%-27.1%-29.0%-30.8%-32.5%-34.2%-35.8%-37.3%-38.7%-40.0%-41.2%-42.4%-43.5%-44.6%-45.6%-46.5%-47.4%-48.3%153.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)-1.7%-3.4%-4.9%-6.4%-7.8%-9.1%-10.4%-11.6%-12.8%-13.9%-14.9%-15.9%-16.9%-17.9%-18.8%-19.7%-20.5%-21.4%-22.2%-23.0%-23.7%-24.5%-25.2%-25.9%154.00155.00Change in CO2 in that year, relative to actual CO2 emissions in 2005, expressed as a percent-1.4%0.4%-2.9%-9.8%-6.5%-8.9%-10.6%-9.2%-13.3%-16.6%-19.5%-22.2%-24.5%-26.7%-28.6%-30.3%-32.0%-33.4%-34.8%-36.2%-37.4%-38.5%-39.6%-40.6%-41.6%-42.5%-43.3%-44.1%-44.9%-45.6%-46.3%-46.9%156.00Electricity Generation-20.9%-26.2%-30.8%-34.8%-38.3%-41.5%-44.4%-47.0%-49.3%-51.5%-53.5%-55.4%-57.1%-58.8%-60.3%-61.7%-63.1%-64.3%-65.5%-66.7%-67.7%-68.7%-69.7%-70.6%157.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)-8.8%-10.0%-11.1%-12.1%-13.0%-13.8%-14.6%-15.3%-15.9%-16.5%-17.2%-17.8%-18.4%-18.9%-19.4%-19.8%-20.3%-20.7%-21.1%-21.4%-21.8%-22.1%-22.4%-22.6%158.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)-5.0%-6.9%-8.7%-10.3%-11.8%-13.2%-14.4%-15.6%-16.7%-17.8%-18.8%-19.8%-20.7%-21.6%-22.4%-23.2%-24.0%-24.7%-25.4%-26.1%-26.7%-27.3%-27.9%-28.4%159.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)-14.7%-15.9%-16.9%-17.8%-18.6%-19.3%-19.8%-20.3%-20.7%-21.1%-21.5%-21.8%-22.1%-22.3%-22.5%-22.6%-22.8%-22.8%-22.9%-22.9%-22.9%-22.9%-22.8%-22.6%160.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)-14.9%-17.3%-19.5%-21.6%-23.5%-25.3%-27.0%-28.6%-30.1%-31.5%-33.0%-34.3%-35.6%-36.8%-38.0%-39.2%-40.3%-41.3%-42.3%-43.3%-44.2%-45.2%-46.0%-46.9%161.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)13.6%9.8%5.9%2.5%-0.5%-3.2%-5.7%-7.8%-9.8%-11.6%-13.3%-14.6%-15.8%-16.9%-17.9%-18.9%-19.7%-20.6%-21.3%-22.0%-22.7%-23.3%-23.8%-24.4%162.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)-26.7%-27.8%-28.9%-29.9%-30.9%-31.8%-32.7%-33.5%-34.3%-35.1%-35.9%-36.7%-37.4%-38.2%-38.9%-39.6%-40.2%-40.9%-41.5%-42.1%-42.7%-43.3%-43.9%-44.4%163.00164.00Breakdown of CO2 changes (relative to moving trajectory, not 2005) among the seven sectors 201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038165.00Electricity Generation62%61%60%60%59%59%58%58%58%57%57%57%56%56%55%55%54%54%53%53%53%52%52%52%166.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)10%10%11%11%11%12%12%12%12%13%13%13%13%14%14%14%14%14%15%15%15%15%16%16%167.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)5%5%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%168.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%169.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%6%170.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)13%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%14%15%15%15%15%15%15%15%171.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%2%172.00173.003. Annual Oil Requirements For graph of reductions in petrol usage over time, click: here(Figures below were calculated in Graph_Oil worksheet and copied from there.)Tax Year:123456789101112131415161718192021222324174.00175.00WITHOUT CARBON TAX200520062007200820092010201120122013201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038176.00177.00Petroleum Consumption, thousand bbl/day21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,92719,01519,10419,19419,28419,37419,46419,55519,64719,73919,81119,88419,95620,02920,10320,17620,25020,32520,40020,47520,55120,62720,70320,801178.00Electricity Generation622327335235198189154118137137137137138138138138138138138138138137137137136136135135135134134134133179.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)8,7958,7348,5828,1868,1858,1758,0378,0048,0718,1988,2638,3288,3938,4598,5258,5928,6608,7288,7968,8578,9188,9809,0429,1049,1679,2309,2949,3589,4239,4889,5549,6209,695180.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)3,2693,3683,5613,4003,0553,2073,1773,0943,1603,1873,2013,2143,2283,2413,2543,2673,2803,2933,3063,3153,3253,3343,3433,3523,3613,3703,3793,3883,3963,4053,4143,4223,433181.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)1,5851,5681,5581,4561,3181,3691,3751,3481,3651,3821,3901,3981,4061,4141,4231,4311,4391,4471,4551,4611,4671,4741,4801,4861,4921,4971,5031,5091,5151,5211,5271,5331,541182.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)4,4004,2924,4674,3694,0784,1754,1503,9983,8843,8513,8343,8183,8013,7843,7673,7503,7323,7153,6983,6763,6553,6333,6123,5903,5693,5483,5263,5053,4833,4623,4413,4193,402183.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0184.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)2,5372,4632,3652,2672,0802,2602,2112,1332,1332,1712,1902,2092,2282,2482,2672,2872,3062,3262,3462,3632,3812,3982,4162,4332,4512,4692,4872,5042,5222,5402,5582,5762,597185.00186.00WITH CARBON TAX187.00188.00Petroleum Consumption, thousand bbl/day21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,44218,11317,81217,53517,28017,04416,82516,62116,43116,25316,07215,90215,74115,58915,44515,30915,17915,05614,93914,82714,72014,61814,52014,439189.00Electricity Generation6223273352351981891541181371271191111059994898582787572696664625957555452504947190.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)8,7958,7348,5828,1868,1858,1758,0378,0048,0718,0207,9167,8227,7357,6557,5817,5137,4517,3937,3407,2837,2317,1817,1357,0927,0517,0136,9776,9436,9126,8826,8546,8276,809191.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)3,2693,3683,5613,4003,0553,2073,1773,0943,1603,1053,0422,9842,9322,8832,8382,7972,7582,7222,6882,6542,6222,5912,5622,5352,5092,4852,4612,4392,4172,3962,3772,3582,342192.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)1,5851,5681,5581,4561,3181,3691,3751,3481,3651,3521,3331,3161,3021,2901,2801,2711,2631,2561,2511,2451,2401,2351,2311,2281,2261,2241,2231,2221,2221,2221,2231,2241,227193.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)4,4004,2924,4674,3694,0784,1754,1503,9983,8843,7523,6453,5473,4553,3703,2913,2163,1463,0803,0172,9542,8942,8372,7832,7312,6812,6332,5862,5422,4992,4572,4172,3772,342194.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0195.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)2,5372,4632,3652,2672,0802,2602,2112,1332,1332,0872,0582,0312,0061,9821,9601,9381,9181,8981,8791,8611,8441,8271,8111,7951,7801,7661,7511,7371,7241,7111,6981,6851,673196.00197.00Tax Year:123456789101112131415161718192021222324198.00199.004. Annual Revenues For graph of carbon tax revenues, click: here200520062007200820092010201120122013201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038200.00All dollar figures in this section are in nominal (not constant) money.201.00Tax Revenues, $ billionsSum of same year's revenues in applicable rows of each of the seven "sectoral" worksheets.$61$120$176$231$285$338$390$442$494$546$597$649$701$753$806$859$913$968$1,023$1,079$1,136$1,193$1,252$1,312202.00203.00Cumulative Tax Revenues, $ billionsSum of this year's revenues in Row 202 and prior year's cumulative revenues in this Row (204).$61$181$358$589$874$1,212$1,602$2,044$2,538$3,084$3,682$4,331$5,032$5,785$6,591$7,451$8,364$9,331$10,354$11,433$12,569$13,762$15,014$16,326204.00Percentages in Row 206 reflect intent of a 2011 bill introduced by (former) Rep. Pete Stark to allocate 100% of Year-1 revenues to dividends, and, in all succeeding years, to do same while also applying $10/ton worth of carbon tax revenues to deficit reduction. Percentages don't reflect complicating factor of possible surcharges on some petroleum products, so should be considered approximate.205.00Share of annual tax revenue applied to deficit or other purposes0%44%29%22%18%15%13%11%10%9%8%7%7%6%6%6%5%5%5%4%4%4%4%4%206.00207.00Tax Revenues applied to deficit or other purposes, $ billionProduct of percents in Row 206 and amounts in Row 202.$0$53$52$51$50$50$49$49$48$48$48$48$48$47$47$47$47$47$47$48$48$48$48$48208.00209.00Cumulative Tax Revs applied to deficit or other purposes, $ billionsSum of this year's revenues in Row 208 and prior year's cumulative revenues in this Row (210).$0$53$105$156$206$256$305$354$402$450$498$546$593$641$688$735$783$830$878$925$973$1,021$1,069$1,117210.00211.00Cumulative Tax Revenues not applied to deficit or other, $ billionsRow 204 less Row 210. These revenues are therefore available for 'tax-swapping' or 'dividending.'$61$128$253$433$668$956$1,297$1,691$2,136$2,634$3,184$3,785$4,439$5,145$5,903$6,715$7,581$8,501$9,477$10,508$11,596$12,741$13,945$15,209212.00213.00U.S. Population (millions, July 1 of each year)318.9321.4323.8326.3328.9331.4333.9336.4338.9341.4343.9346.4348.9351.3353.7356.1358.5360.8363.1365.3367.5369.7371.8371.8214.00Source: 2012 National Population Projections, , Table, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2015 to 2060," downloaded 20-March-2013. 2014 value (not provided in above) was estimated here by applying 2015-2016 differential to 2014-2015.215.00216.00217.00Maximum Annual Carbon Tax Dividend per capita Assumes 100% of revenues are distributed equally among U.S. residents, i.e., Row 202 divided by Row 214; multiply results by 2.6 for dividend per household.$192$373$545$709$866$1,020$1,169$1,315$1,457$1,599$1,737$1,874$2,009$2,145$2,279$2,413$2,547$2,682$2,817$2,953$3,090$3,228$3,367$3,530218.00219.00Annual Carbon Tax Dividend per capita Same as note in Row 218, except that revenue pie is shrunk by allocations to deficit reduction, so figures are Row 218 multiplied by complement of Row 206.$192$209$385$552$714$870$1,022$1,170$1,315$1,458$1,598$1,736$1,873$2,010$2,145$2,280$2,415$2,551$2,686$2,823$2,961$3,099$3,238$3,400220.00Persons per HH:2.6U.S. Census 'Quick Facts': http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html221.00Maximum Annual Carbon Tax Dividend per householdPer capita dividend in Row 218, multiplied by persons per household in Cell I221.$500$970$1,416$1,843$2,253$2,651$3,039$3,418$3,789$4,156$4,517$4,872$5,225$5,576$5,925$6,275$6,623$6,974$7,325$7,678$8,035$8,393$8,755$9,178222.00223.00Annual Carbon Tax Dividend per householdPer capita dividend in Row 220, multiplied by persons per household in Cell I221.$500$543$1,000$1,436$1,855$2,262$2,657$3,041$3,418$3,790$4,155$4,514$4,870$5,225$5,576$5,929$6,279$6,632$6,985$7,340$7,697$8,057$8,419$8,840224.00225.005. "Demand Side" vs. "Supply Side" Estimating the Relative Contributions of "Conservation" (reduced and/or more-efficient usage) and of "Decarbonization" (changes in fuel mix)226.00227.00Projections for Tenth Year of Carbon Tax228.00(vis--vis moving trajectory)Projected reduction, MM tonsShare of reduction from reduced useMM tons of reduction from reduced use229.00230.00231.00Electricity Generation90244%399232.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational boats, vehicles, etc.)19842%83This section is intended to shed quantitative light on the role of the "demand side" in reducing CO2 emissions.233.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)9649%47234.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)3085%26235.00"Other" Petroleum Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn, etc.)10048%48The calculation here, with the result shown in Cell G239, indicates that 48% of the CO2 reduction 'bang' from a carbon tax would occur as the result of higher prices for fuels and energy. In other words, relying on, say, energy subsidies or clean-energy R&D to accelerate the shift to low- and zero-carbon fuels, while theoretically capturing 52% of the overall potential CO2 savings from a carbon tax, would still leave 48% of the potential savings 'on the table.'236.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)21370%148237.00Miscellany (non-electric coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)3330%10238.00T O T A L1,57248%762239.00Total, except Electricity67154%362240.00241.00242.00243.00244.00245.00246.00247.00
http://www.carbontax.org/mailto:[email protected]://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/hr4754/texthttp://www.komanoff.net/fossil/CTC_Carbon_Tax_Model.xlsxhttp://www.carbontax.org/services/bills/IndexIndex7/16/14
This spreadsheet has 22 worksheet "tabs," or "pages." Clicking on any linked tab takes you to that page.
Linked tab or pageDescriptionSummarySummarizes nature, purpose and structure of the spreadsheet.Index(this page)Graph_CO2Graphs showing future CO2 emissions with and without carbon tax, and breakout of 10th-year differences by sector.Graph_OilGraphs showing future petroleum requirements with and without carbon tax, and breakout of 10th-year differences by sector.Graph_RevenueGraph showing total revenue generation and per-household "dividend" shares of revenue from the carbon taxHowUnravels the model's key precepts and mechanics (still under construction, however).ElectricityFirst of seven sector-specific tabs, covering fossil-fuel electricity generation, which accounted for 38.6% of emissions in 2013.Personal Ground TravelSecond of seven sector-specific tabs, covering passenger and recreational vehicles accounting for 21% of emissions in 2013.FreightThird of seven sector-specific tabs, covering goods movement by trucks, ships and planes accounting for 9.4% of emissions in 2013.AviationFourth of seven sector-specific tabs, covering air-passenger travel, which accounted for 3.8% of emissions in 2013.Other_PetrolFifth of seven sector-specific tabs, covering use of oil in industry, heating, etc., which accounted for 10.7% of emissions in 2013.Other_Natural Gasseventh of seven sector-specific tabs, covering use of natural gas in industry, heating, etc., accounting for 12.2% of emissions in 2013.MiscellanySeventh of seven sector-specific tabs, covering coal (non-electric uses), 'non-energy' FF use, and emissions from U.S. territories, accounting for 4.4% of emissions in 2013.EmissionsCompiles each sector's baseline (actual) CO2 emissions for 2013 and earlier years.EnergyCompiles key baseline (actual) energy-use data (kWh of electricity, barrels of petroleum products, etc.) for 2013 and earlier years.AEOContains forecasted energy prices and general-economy indicators from U.S. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (preliminary for 2014).ParametersHas price- and income-elasticities for the seven sectors, along with conversion factors (e.g., tons to tonnes) used throughout.GHG'sCompiles emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (still under construction, however).Other GraphsA collection of "other" graphs, some of which figure in a Komanoff PPT slide show created in late May 2013.Larson RevenueDisplays breakout of revenue distributions under Rep. John Larson's "AESTFA" carbon-tax bill from 2009 Admin Cost'!A1Calculates costs of administering carbon tax "dividend" distribution (this worksheet is under construction)SettingInstructions to change an Excel "setting" to allow "iterative calculation" and thus eliminate circular references.
Graph_CO2Graph_CO27/16/141.002.00All emissions are for USA, in millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, from fossil-fuel combustion.3.004.005.00CO2 emissions2005200620072008200920102011201220132015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720386.00Without a carbon tax or other carbon-pricing action5,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,3235,3445,3605,3765,3925,4085,4245,4395,4545,4705,4825,4915,5005,5095,5185,5275,5375,5465,5565,5655,5755,5845,5945,6077.00Figures are copied from Summary tab, Row 113.8.00User Selected Carbon Emissions Price5,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,0784,8844,7104,5564,4184,2944,1814,0783,9843,8973,8153,7373,6653,5983,5353,4763,4213,3683,3193,2723,2273,1853,1453,1089.00Figures are copied from Summary tab, Row 124.10.0011.00Graph results below correspond to following carbon tax inputs/assumptions12.00Initial carbon tax rate ($/ton of CO2):$11.3413.00Annual increment ($/ton or %):$11.3414.00Inflation treatment:Carbon tax is indexed to inflation15.00Year that carbon tax starts201516.0017.0018.0019.0020.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.0036.0037.0038.0039.0040.0041.0042.0043.00Go to 'Summary' tab, Rows 52-79 to see parameters of carbon tax underlying this graph.44.0045.00CO2 emissions, million metric tons, w/o c-tax5,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,3235,3445,3605,3765,3925,4085,4245,4395,4545,4705,4825,4915,5005,5095,5185,5275,5375,5465,5565,5655,5755,5845,5945,60746.00Electricity Generation2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0532,0612,0622,0632,0652,0662,0682,0692,0702,0722,0732,0742,0692,0632,0572,0512,0452,0402,0342,0282,0222,0172,0112,0052,00047.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)1,1971,1881,1681,1141,1141,1121,0931,0981,1151,1151,1241,1331,1421,1511,1601,1691,1781,1881,1971,2051,2131,2221,2301,2391,2471,2561,2651,2731,2821,2911,3001,3091,31948.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)51052655653147750149649349849850050250450650851051251451651851952152252352552652852953053253353453649.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)23323022921419320120219820020320420520620720921021121221321421521621721821922022122122222322422522650.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)64562965464059761260858656956456255955755455254954754454253953553252952652352051751351050750450149851.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)54152754953750151351058664764765666166667167567968368769169470270971672473173874675376176877678379152.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)31631329527924226725523923523623623623623723723723723823823823823823823823723723723723723723723723753.00This array is copied from 'Summary' tab, Rows 113-119.54.00Obama Target5,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,1725,17255.00WITH CARBON TAX20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203856.0057.00CO2 emissions, million metric tons, with carbon tax incremented at levels inputted above5,8555,7725,8765,6875,2825,4765,3345,2355,3175,0784,8844,7104,5564,4184,2944,1814,0783,9843,8973,8153,7373,6653,5983,5353,4763,4213,3683,3193,2723,2273,1853,1453,10858.00Electricity Generation2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0531,9101,7821,6711,5741,4881,4121,3431,2801,2231,1711,1241,0771,03599595892489186183280577975573270959.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)1,1971,1881,1681,1141,1141,1121,0931,0981,1151,0911,0771,0641,0521,0421,0321,0221,0141,00699999198497797196595995494994594093693392992660.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)51052655653147750149649349848547546645845044343743142542041440940540039639238838438137737437136836661.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)23323022921419320120219820019819519319118918818618518418418318218118118018018017917917917917917918062.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)64562965464059761260858656954953351950549348147046045144143242341540739939238537837236635935434834363.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)54152754953750151351058664761459357255453852351049848847846946245544944443943443042642241841541240964.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)31631329527924226725523923523122822422121821521321020720520220019719519319118918718518318117917717565.00This array is copied from 'Summary' tab, Rows 124-130.66.0067.00CO2 Impacts of the Carbon Tax, million metric tons2454606508209741,1141,2421,3611,4701,5721,6671,7541,8351,9111,9832,0512,1162,1782,2372,2932,3472,3992,4492,49868.00Electricity Generation1512803924905786567267908489029519911,0281,0621,0931,1221,1481,1731,1961,2171,2371,2561,2741,29069.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational)2447699010912814716418219821423024525927428830231532934235536738039370.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)1325364656657382899610311011612212813313814314815315716216617071.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)481215182124262830323335363839404142434445454672.00"Other" Petrol Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn)15294051617079879410010611211712212713113513814214514815115315673.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)33638911213315216918519921322524025426728029230431632833935036137138274.00Miscellany (non-elec. coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)481215182225283033353840424547495153545658606175.0076.00CO2 emissions, million metric tons, with carbon tax incremented at levels inputted above77.00Electricity2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0531,9101,7821,6711,5741,4881,4121,3431,2801,2231,1711,1241,0771,03599595892489186183280577975573270978.00Other Sectors Combined3,4403,4133,4503,3143,1243,2053,1643,1993,2643,1693,1023,0392,9822,9302,8822,8382,7982,7612,7262,6912,6602,6312,6032,5772,5532,3412,3212,3022,2842,2672,2512,4132,39979.0080.00CO2 Impacts of the Carbon Tax, million metric tons81.00Electricity1512803924905786567267908489029519911,0281,0621,0931,1221,1481,1731,1961,2171,2371,2561,2741,29082.00Other Sectors Combined941802583293964585165716226717167628078498909309681,0051,0411,0761,1101,1431,1761,20883.0084.0085.0086.0087.0088.0089.0090.00
From CTC Carbon Tax Spreadsheet Model, June 2014From CTC Carbon Tax Spreadsheet Model, May 2014From CTC Carbon Tax Spreadsheet Model, June 2014
Graph_OilGraph_Oil7/16/141.002.003.00Graph results below correspond to following carbon tax inputs/assumptions4.00Initial carbon tax rate ($/ton of CO2):$11.345.00Annual increment ($/ton or %):$11.346.00Inflation treatment:Carbon tax is indexed to inflation7.00Year that carbon tax starts20158.009.0010.0011.0012.0013.0014.0015.0016.0017.0018.0019.0020.0021.0022.0023.0024.0025.0026.0027.0028.0029.0030.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.00Note: Throughout this tab, 2006 figures (which we did not record independently) are taken as mean of entries for 2005 and 2007.36.0037.0038.00US oil consumption (thousands of barrels per day)20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203839.0040.00Without a carbon tax or other carbon-pricing action21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,92719,01519,10419,19419,28419,37419,46419,55519,64719,73919,81119,88419,95620,02920,10320,17620,25020,32520,40020,47520,55120,62720,70320,80141.00Figures are copied from Row 50.42.00User Selected Carbon Emissions Price21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,44218,11317,81217,53517,28017,04416,82516,62116,43116,25316,07215,90215,74115,58915,44515,30915,17915,05614,93914,82714,72014,61814,52014,43943.00Figures are copied from Row 61.44.00Projected oil requirements w/ tax shown, vis--vis actual in 2005:-23%45.00Projected oil requirements relative to 2020 if no carbon price:-16%46.00WITHOUT CARBON TAX47.0048.00Relatively high figure, intended to reflect cycling and stand-by role for oil-fired plantsFigures for 2015 and beyond extrapolate from prior years via ratios of fuel/energy volumes and CO2 per unit fuel (w/o tax).49.00Petroleum Consumption, thousand bbl/day (w/o c-tax)21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,92719,01519,10419,19419,28419,37419,46419,55519,64719,73919,81119,88419,95620,02920,10320,17620,25020,32520,40020,47520,55120,62720,70320,80150.00Electricity Generationassumes:11,500Btu/kWh62232733523519818915411813713713713713813813813813813813813813813713713713613613513513513413413413351.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational boats, vehicles, etc.)8,7958,7348,5828,1868,1858,1758,0378,0048,0718,1988,2638,3288,3938,4598,5258,5928,6608,7288,7968,8578,9188,9809,0429,1049,1679,2309,2949,3589,4239,4889,5549,6209,69552.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)3,2693,3683,5613,4003,0553,2073,1773,0943,1603,1873,2013,2143,2283,2413,2543,2673,2803,2933,3063,3153,3253,3343,3433,3523,3613,3703,3793,3883,3963,4053,4143,4223,43353.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)1,5851,5681,5581,4561,3181,3691,3751,3481,3651,3821,3901,3981,4061,4141,4231,4311,4391,4471,4551,4611,4671,4741,4801,4861,4921,4971,5031,5091,5151,5211,5271,5331,54154.00"Other" Petroleum Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn, etc.)4,4004,2924,4674,3694,0784,1754,1503,9983,8843,8513,8343,8183,8013,7843,7673,7503,7323,7153,6983,6763,6553,6333,6123,5903,5693,5483,5263,5053,4833,4623,4413,4193,40255.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 056.00Miscellany (non-electric coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)2,5372,4632,3652,2672,0802,2602,2112,1332,1332,1712,1902,2092,2282,2482,2672,2872,3062,3262,3462,3632,3812,3982,4162,4332,4512,4692,4872,5042,5222,5402,5582,5762,59757.0058.00WITH CARBON TAX20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203859.0060.00Petroleum Consumption, thousand bbl/day (with carbon tax)21,20820,75120,86919,91318,91519,37419,10318,69418,75018,44218,11317,81217,53517,28017,04416,82516,62116,43116,25316,07215,90215,74115,58915,44515,30915,17915,05614,93914,82714,72014,61814,52014,43961.00Electricity Generation622327335235198189154118137127119111105999489858278757269666462595755545250494762.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational boats, vehicles, etc.)8,7958,7348,5828,1868,1858,1758,0378,0048,0718,0207,9167,8227,7357,6557,5817,5137,4517,3937,3407,2837,2317,1817,1357,0927,0517,0136,9776,9436,9126,8826,8546,8276,80963.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)3,2693,3683,5613,4003,0553,2073,1773,0943,1603,1053,0422,9842,9322,8832,8382,7972,7582,7222,6882,6542,6222,5912,5622,5352,5092,4852,4612,4392,4172,3962,3772,3582,34264.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)1,5851,5681,5581,4561,3181,3691,3751,3481,3651,3521,3331,3161,3021,2901,2801,2711,2631,2561,2511,2451,2401,2351,2311,2281,2261,2241,2231,2221,2221,2221,2231,2241,22765.00"Other" Petroleum Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn, etc.)4,4004,2924,4674,3694,0784,1754,1503,9983,8843,7523,6453,5473,4553,3703,2913,2163,1463,0803,0172,9542,8942,8372,7832,7312,6812,6332,5862,5422,4992,4572,4172,3772,34266.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 067.00Miscellany (non-electric coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)2,5372,4632,3652,2672,0802,2602,2112,1332,1332,0872,0582,0312,0061,9821,9601,9381,9181,8981,8791,8611,8441,8271,8111,7951,7801,7661,7511,7371,7241,7111,6981,6851,67368.0069.00Petroleum Impacts of the Carbon Tax, thousand bbl/day4859021,2931,6592,0042,3302,6402,9353,2163,4863,7393,9824,2154,4404,6574,8675,0715,2695,4615,6485,8316,0096,1836,36270.00Electricity Generation10192633384448535760636668717375767880818284858671.00Personal Ground Travel ("driving" + recreational boats, vehicles, etc.)1783465066598049441,0791,2091,3351,4571,5741,6881,7991,9072,0132,1162,2172,3172,4152,5112,6062,7002,7922,88672.00Freight (goods movement, whether by road, rail, ship, air)831592302963584164705225716186617037437818178528869189499791,0091,0371,0641,09273.00Aviation (passenger only, i.e., excludes freight)30578210412414316017619120421722823824825726527328028729329930430931474.00"Other" Petroleum Products (industry, heat/hot water, construxn, etc.)991892713454134765335866356817227607968298608889159409639851,0051,0241,0421,05975.00"Other" Natural Gas (industry, heat/hot water, etc.)- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 0- 076.00Miscellany (non-electric coal, non-energy FF's, U.S. territories)8413217822226530734938942846750253757160563867170373576779883086189192577.0078.0079.0080.0081.0082.0083.0084.0085.0086.0087.0088.0089.0090.0091.0092.0093.0094.0095.0096.0097.0098.0099.00100.00101.00102.00103.00104.00105.00106.00107.00108.00109.00110.00111.00112.00113.00114.00115.00116.00117.00118.00119.00120.00121.00122.00123.00124.00125.00126.00127.00128.00129.00130.00131.00132.00133.00134.00135.00136.00137.00138.00139.00140.00141.00142.00143.00144.00145.00146.00
Graph_RevenueGraph_Revenue7/16/14
Carbon Tax RevenuesFigures are copied from Summary tab, Rows 202 and 224.201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038
Tax Revenues, $ billions (100% of revenues, whether 'recycled' or not)$61$120$176$231$285$338$390$442$494$546$597$649$701$753$806$859$913$968$1,023$1,079$1,136$1,193$1,252$1,312Figures are copied from Summary tab, Row 202.Carbon Tax Dividend per household (reflects any applicable deductions)$500$970$1,416$1,843$2,253$2,651$3,039$3,418$3,789$4,156$4,517$4,872$5,225$5,576$5,925$6,275$6,623$6,974$7,325$7,678$8,035$8,393$8,755$9,178Figures are copied from Summary tab, Row 224 and reflect any deductions per percentages in Summary tab, Rows 206-208.
Graph result below corresponds to following carbon tax inputs/assumptionsInitial carbon tax rate ($/ton of CO2):$11.34Annual increment ($/ton or %):$11.34Inflation treatment:Carbon tax is indexed to inflationYear that carbon tax starts2015
HowHow (The Model Works)This page under construction as of:7/16/14For each of the seven energy-consuming sectors (electricity, personal ground travel, etc.), we have tabulated current/recent usage (e.g., electricity consumption; gallons of gasoline) and the carbon content of each unit of usage pounds of CO2 emitted per kWh provided, per gallon of gasoline supplied, etc.
We then project each sector's usage and carbon content, with and without the carbon tax.
Usage is dictated by income (GDP) and price. (More precisely, year-to-year changes in usage are dictated by year-to-year changes in GDP and changes in the (real, i.e., inflation-adjusted) price of the energy or fuel.) We have assigned to each sector an "income-elasticity" and a "price-elasticity" that determine the rate at which changes in income and price affect usage.
All things equal ("ceteris paribus"), the steeper the rise in national income, the steeper the "natural" increase in usage, as more affluent Americans occupy more and larger houses, more factories churn out more stuff, and more autos, trucks, boats, etc. are driven more miles. At the same time, and overlaying the "income" effect, costlier energy leads to less use of it per unit of economic activity, as more-expensive energy incentivizes households, factories, institutions and humans to find ways to economize on energy as they do with any commodity or good or service that grows more expensive. Thus, income-elasticity and price-elasticity operate simultaneously and independently.
Introducing the carbon tax affects usage by elevating the price of the energy (electricity, gasoline, etc.) above what it would be without the tax and, thus, bending the curve of usage downward. The model has two price trajectories and thus two "usage" trajectories: a business-as-usual path without the carbon tax, and a second, lower path with the tax. The difference between the two trajectories translates into (or, more precisely, "is") the difference in units of consumption (electricity, gasoline, etc.) for each energy sector.
The discussion thus far concerns only the "demand" (usage) side of the equation. The "supply" side will also be affected by the carbon tax, as tax-minimizing energy users increasingly shift their purchases of energy to suppliers who draw on low-carbon fuels which will be taxed at lower rates per kWh or Btu.
This shift to lower-carbon energy sources will be most pronounced in the electricity sector. This is because there is a wide range of sources, with a broad range of carbon intensity, capable of producing what is, after all, merely a commodity a kilowat-hour of electricity: wind turbines, solar collectors, nuclear power plants (all essentially zero-carbon at the point of generation); gas-fired power plants, including combined-cycle turbines that, due to "efficiency" rates up to 60% and natural gas's relatively low carbon content (among other fossil fuels), produce only 35-40% as much CO2 as conventional coal-fired power plants; and, of course, at the top of the carbon-emissions chart, coal-fired generation.
How to "model" (estimate / analyze) the decarbonization of electricity and other energy supply is something we've been wrestling with for awhile. We know that a higher carbon tax will accelerate the pace of decarbonization. But we haven't yet been able to derive an empirical relationship or otherwise devise an analytical means to estimate the strength of the linkage. This "analytical gap" forces us to make assumptions for each sector.
[More to come, esp'ly on the supply-side elasticities.]
ElectricityElectricity7/16/141.002.00This page pertains only to Electricity. Succeeding pages show Personal Ground Travel, Freight, Aviation, and Other Sectors.This linkgoes to new sectionTax Inputs (copied from 'Summary' Tab, Rows 58-71)3.00sketching sector re-alignment in response to a robust carbon tax.First-year tax per ton of CO2$11.344.00How tax will be incremented By Constant Amount5.00Annual rate of increment$11.346.00Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to four pages. Print area extends to 2033.Are above rates nominal or real?Real7.008.00All money figures in this tab are in nominal ("as-spent") dollars. Any conversions from real (inflation-adj'd) dollars have been made in Summary.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to est'd or actual data.Figures in column correspond to est'd or actual data.This and later years pivot off first tax year.9.0010.0011.00Parameters that pivot off assumptions in Summary sheet are shown in blue.12.00Parameters that user may vary in this worksheet are shown in magenta.20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203813.0014.00Effective tax year, numberThis and next two rows are derived in 'Summary' tab, Rows 84-87.0000012345678910111213141516171819202122232415.00Tax in year shown, per ton of CO2 emitted. May be in either nominal or real dollars. (If latter, ad'ment to nominal is done in next row).$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$22.68$34.02$45.36$56.70$68.04$79.38$90.72$102.06$113.40$124.74$136.08$147.42$158.76$170.10$181.44$192.78$204.12$215.46$226.80$238.14$249.48$260.82$272.1616.00Tax in yr shown, also per ton CO2 and in nominal $ (w/ inflation adj'ment if Cell J71 in 'Summary' tab was set to )$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2317.00Tax in year shown, per metric ton of carbon dioxide emitted (with inflation adjustment, if any; shown for reference, only)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$12.50$25.40$38.71$52.43$66.58$81.17$96.21$111.70$127.66$144.10$161.03$178.46$196.41$214.88$233.89$253.46$273.58$294.28$315.57$337.46$359.97$383.11$406.89$431.3418.00Tax in year shown, in constant 2012 $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$10.74$21.44$32.08$42.68$53.23$63.73$74.18$84.58$94.94$105.25$115.51$125.72$135.89$146.01$156.09$166.12$176.10$186.03$195.92$205.77$215.56$225.32$235.02$244.6819.0020.0020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203821.00Electricity Prices, Usage, Generation and Carbon Intensity, without carbon tax22.00Average Retail Price of Electricity (/kWh)9.829.839.909.8510.0923.00Monthly Energy Rev, T09.09. 2009-11 are from annual avg's in earlier editions. 2012 and 2013 ratio arithmetic means of 12 monthly values by same for preceding yr.9.8639.81610.058Arithmetic means of 12 monthly values24.00Ratio of Real Avg Retail Price per kWh to Prior Year's (w/o carbon tax)AEO projections, from 'AEO' tab, Row 15.1.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0021.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.0061.00625.00Ratio of Real General Price Index to Prior Year's AEO projections, from 'AEO' tab, Row 20.1.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0161.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.0201.02026.00Avg Retail Electricity Price (/kWh) w/o carbon tax, nominal (w/ inflation)Previous yr's price x same yr's ratios in Rows 25-26, except first yr pivots off last known yr.10.0310.2210.4010.5910.7910.9811.1811.3911.6011.8112.0212.3412.6713.0013.3513.7014.0614.4314.8215.2115.6116.0216.4516.8827.0028.00U.S. electricity end use (TWh), without carbon tax 3,8113,8173,8903,8653,7243,8863,8833,8323,8313,9153,9574,0004,0444,0874,1324,1774,2224,2684,3144,3614,3934,4254,4584,4904,5234,5564,5904,6234,6574,6914,7264,7604,79529.002005-2013 figures are from EIA/MER, Table 7.6. Figures for 2015 and later apply (i) electricity income-elasticity in 'Parameters' page, Row 6, to assumed real GDP growth rate in 'AEO' tab, Row 19; and (ii) electricity price-elasticity in 'Parameters' page, Row 6, to assumed real electricity price changes in 'AEO' tab, Row 15. IF statement selects applicable rate for both income and price.30.0031.0032.00Average factor by which CO2 lb/kWh ratio changed yr-to-yr, 2005-20130.98033.00Derived in, and copied from, 'Emissions', Cell O45.34.00Assumed multiplier to that increase rate going forward, if no carbon price50%35.00CTC assumption, chosen on assumption that ongoing decarbonization of electricity sector will continue in future even w/o carbon tax, albeit at lesser pace than during 2005-2013.36.00Baseline annual factor ratio in CO2 emissions, lb/kWh, if zero price on carbon0.99037.00Complement of product of Cell K35 and complement of Cell K33.38.00Equates to following per-yr reduxn in CO2/kWh:1.01%39.00Complement of Cell K37.40.00CO2 emissions, lb/kWh generated, w/o carbon tax1.3131.2791.2861.2701.2041.2141.1671.1091.1151.0931.0821.0711.0601.0501.0391.0291.0181.0080.9980.9880.9780.9680.9580.9490.9390.9290.9200.9110.9020.8930.8840.8750.86641.00Figures through 2013 are calc'd in 'Emissions' worksheet, Row 43. Subsequent figures are previous year's figure times ratio in Cell K37 (with latter compounded from 2013 to first year shown).42.00Ratio, Generation to SalesAvg for 9 yrs shown:1.0621.0641.0651.0691.0661.0611.0611.0561.0561.05943.00U.S. net electric generation w/o carbon tax, thousand GWh4,0554,0654,1574,1193,9504,1254,1004,0484,0584,1574,2024,2484,2944,3404,3884,4354,4834,5324,5814,6314,6654,6994,7334,7684,8034,8384,8744,9104,9464,9825,0185,0555,09244.00Figures through 2013 are from Energy worksheet, Row 8. From 2013, each figure is product of projected end-use TWh in Row 29 and empirical ratio of generation to sales in Cell G43.45.00CO2 emissions, w/o carbon tax, millions of metric tons2,4142,3592,4252,3722,1582,2712,1702,0352,0532,0612,0622,0632,0652,0662,0682,0692,0702,0722,0732,0742,0692,0632,0572,0512,0452,0402,0342,0282,0222,0172,0112,0052,00046.00Figures through 2013 are from Emissions worksheet, Row 40. From 2013, each figure is product of projected electricity generation TWh in Row 44 and projected ratio of CO2/kWh generated in Cell G41.47.0048.0020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203849.00Assumed rate at which each $10/ton CO2 charge (expressed in 2012$) magnifies baseline factor in Cell K39 by which CO2/kWh ratio changes each year absent a carbon charge.3.0$ 10.00ton/CO2 tax50.0051.00CTC estimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of wind, natural gas, nuclear and generation efficiencies as coal-burning grows more costly. Note that relative cost of a coal-fired kWh vis-a-vis natural gas rises by approx'ly 0.7 per $10/ton CO2 rise in carbon tax. Ideally, impact would be modeled with time lag and, perhaps, attenuation (diminishing returns).52.0053.0054.00CO2 emissions, lb/kWh generated, w/ carbon taxFalls over time as tax moves generators to reduce carbon-intensity of generation.1.211.171.111.121.061.010.970.930.890.850.820.790.750.720.690.660.640.610.590.560.540.520.500.480.460.440.430.4155.00Figures in Row 55 reduce Row 41 emission rates by a percentage calculated from Cells K39 and K50, normalized by Cell N50.56.00Carbon emission charge, /kWh, per kWh generated (w/ tax)Product of CO2 per kWh in Row 55 and carbon charge in $ per ton of CO2 in Row 17, adjusted for dimensions.0.601.171.702.212.693.153.573.984.364.725.065.385.685.966.236.486.726.947.147.347.527.697.847.9957.00Line losses (% of generation that doesn't reach user)Complement of reciprocal of Cell G435.8%58.0059.00Carbon charge per kWh delivered, in /kWhRow 57 divided by complement of Cell K58.0.641.241.812.352.863.343.804.224.635.015.375.716.036.336.626.887.137.377.597.797.988.168.338.4960.00Average Retail Price of Electricity (/kWh), with carbon tax, in nominal terms (unadj'd)Sum of Rows 23 and 60.9.829.839.909.8510.0910.6711.4512.2112.9413.6414.3214.9815.6116.2316.8217.4018.0518.7019.3419.9620.5821.1921.8022.4023.0023.5924.1924.7825.3761.00Avg Retail Price of Electricity with carbon tax, in 2012 dollars Row 61, adjusted for inflation.10.3710.1910.089.859.9110.1110.6611.1611.6112.0212.4012.7313.0313.3013.5413.7614.0214.2614.4914.6914.8715.0415.1915.3315.4615.5815.6815.7815.8762.00% increase in U.S. avg real (inflation-adjusted) retail price of electricity over prior year-1.7%-1.1%-2.3%0.6%1.0%5.4%4.7%4.1%3.5%3.1%2.7%2.4%2.1%1.8%1.6%1.9%1.7%1.6%1.4%1.3%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.6%63.00% increase in avg retail price of electricity due to carbon tax (i.e., tax's price differential as % of price w/o tax)Calculated as excess of Row 61 over Row 27.6.3%12.1%17.4%22.2%26.5%30.4%33.9%37.1%39.9%42.5%44.7%46.3%47.6%48.7%49.6%50.2%50.7%51.0%51.2%51.2%51.1%50.9%50.6%50.3%64.065.020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203866.067.0Percent change in electricity usage, relative to ongoing trend w/o carbon taxCalculated as one plus % increase in electricity price in Row 64, raised to the (negative) price-elasticity given in Cell G6 of the 'Parameters' tab; less one.-4.2%-7.7%-10.6%-13.1%-15.2%-17.0%-18.5%-19.8%-21.0%-21.9%-22.8%-23.4%-23.9%-24.3%-24.6%-24.8%-25.0%-25.1%-25.1%-25.1%-25.1%-25.0%-24.9%-24.8%68.069.070.0Change in U.S. electricity end-usage due to price impact of c-tax, terawatt-hoursProduct of Rows 68 and 29.(165)(305)(425)(529)(620)(701)(773)(837)(894)(947)(994)(1,027)(1,056)(1,081)(1,103)(1,121)(1,137)(1,151)(1,162)(1,171)(1,178)(1,183)(1,187)(1,189)71.00U.S. electricity end-usage with carbon tax, terawatt-hoursSum of Rows 29 and 71.3,7503,6523,5753,5153,4673,4313,4043,3853,3733,3683,3673,3663,3693,3763,3873,4023,4193,4393,4623,4863,5133,5423,5733,60672.00U.S. net generation with carbon tax, terawatt-hoursProduct of Row 72 and Cell G43.3,9823,8793,7973,7323,6823,6433,6153,5953,5823,5763,5763,5743,5783,5853,5973,6123,6313,6523,6763,7023,7313,7623,7943,82973.00CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, with carbon taxProduct of Rows 73 and 55, with appropriate conversion factors.1,9101,7821,6711,5741,4881,4121,3431,2801,2231,1711,1241,0771,03599595892489186183280577975573270974.00Change in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectoryRow 74 less Row 46.(150.9)(280.0)(392.1)(490.5)(577.7)(655.7)(726.1)(789.9)(848.2)(901.6)(950.9)(991.1)(1,027.9)(1,061.7)(1,092.8)(1,121.6)(1,148.2)(1,172.9)(1,195.9)(1,217.4)(1,237.4)(1,256.2)(1,273.7)(1,290.2)75.00Change in CO2 due to carbon tax, million metric tons, relative to 2005 emissionsRow 74 less Cell I46.(504.5)(632.3)(743.0)(840.0)(925.9)(1,002.5)(1,071.5)(1,133.9)(1,190.8)(1,242.9)(1,290.8)(1,336.9)(1,379.5)(1,419.1)(1,456.0)(1,490.6)(1,523.0)(1,553.4)(1,582.2)(1,609.3)(1,635.1)(1,659.5)(1,682.7)(1,704.8)76.00Carbon Tax Revenues, $ billions (nominal dollars, i.e., not adjusted for inflation)Product of Rows 74 and 17.$21.7$41.1$58.7$74.9$89.9$103.9$117.2$129.7$141.7$153.1$164.1$174.4$184.3$194.0$203.3$212.4$221.2$229.8$238.2$246.4$254.4$262.3$270.0$277.677.0078.00Assumed price-elasticity of electricity demand (long-run)70%79.00Sourced in 'Parameters' worksheet tab, Row 6. Also see discussion in http://www.carbontax.org/issues/energy-demand-how-sensitive-to-price/.80.0081.00AnalysisNote: This section not included in Print Area.82.0083.00This section examines "sources" of CO2 reductions, to determine relative amounts associated with demand side vs. supply side.84.0085.0086.00Year chosen for snapshot (10th year of tax):202487.0088.00Electricity sales w/o carbon tax (TWh)4,31489.00Electricity sales w carbon tax (TWh)3,36890.00Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.7891.0092.00Emission rate (CO2 per kWh) w/o carbon tax1.0093.00Emission rate (CO2 per kWh) w/ carbon tax0.7294.00Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.7295.0096.00These entries are shown as a check, to ensure that ratio here is product of two prior ones.97.00Total CO2 emissions w/o carbon tax (million metric tons)2,07398.00Total CO2 emissions w/ carbon tax (million metric tons)1,17199.00Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.57100.00101.00Product of two earlier ratios, above0.57102.00103.00Ratio of "demand" shrinkage factor to 104.00"emissions rate" shrinkage factor:0.79105.00106.00 Share of total reduction attributable to demand44%107.00 Share of total reduxn attributable to emission rate56%108.00109.00Reduction902110.00Difference between Rows 98 and 99.111.00Reduction attributable to conservation (reduced demand)399112.00Reduction attributable to decarbonization of supply502113.00Product of Rows 110 and Rows 107 and 108, respectively.114.00115.00This area is a "space filler" (material to enable subsequent worksheets' configuration to track this one) that sheds light on an important issue: inter-fuel competition within the electricity sector. Figures in this area have no effect on results.116.00117.00118.00Amount by which a $10/ton carbon tax raises the price of a coal-fired kWh w/ 10,000 Btu heat rate:1.04/kWh2.08$10.00lb CO2 per kWh, @ 10,000 heat rate (from Komanoff "Carbon Contents" XLS).119.00Amount by which a $10/ton carbon tax raises the price of a gas-fired kWh w/ 6,000 Btu heat rate:0.34/kWh1.13$10.00120.00Amount by which $10/ton carbon tax raises price advantage of gas-fired combined cycle vs. coal:0.70/kWhDifference121.00122.00123.00124.00Exploratory Calculations to "Realize" (Flesh Out) ForecastedReductions in CO2 from Electricity Sector125.00126.00127.00All forecasts/estimates are for year 2024 (10th year of carbon tax assumed to start in 2015) and assume 'McDermott' carbon tax bill discussed and linked to in 'Summary' worksheet tab, Rows 21-25.128.00129.00130.00Electricity Sector CO2 emissions w/o carbon tax (million metric tons)2,073131.00Electricity Sector CO2 emissions w/ carbon tax (million metric tons)980132.00Copied from Rows 98 and 99, but second figure (w/ tax) is 'hard-wired' (i.e., converted from formulas to values) to remain tethered to McDermott bill inputs.133.00134.00% CO2 savings ascribed to changed on the 'demand' side32%135.00% CO2 savings ascribed to changed on the 'supply' side68%136.00Copied from Rows 107 and 108, but also hard-wired for reason given in Row 133.137.00138.00Demand Side139.00140.00Demand Side, Part 1: Dampening in Electricity Growth Rate due to Carbon Tax141.00Electricity sales in 10th year w/o carbon tax (TWh)4,314142.00Electricity sales in 10th year w carbon tax (TWh)3,515143.00First figure is copied from Cell G89. Second is copied and hard-wired from G90.144.00Electricity sales in 2013 (Twh)3,832145.00Copied from Cell P29.146.00Total growth in electricity sales to 10th year from 2013, w/o carbon tax12.6%147.00Ratio of Rows 142 and 145, less one.148.00Total growth in electricity sales to 10th year from 2013, w/ carbon tax-8.3%149.00Ratio of Rows 143 and 145, less one.150.00Annual growth in electricity sales from 2013 to 2024, w/o carbon tax1.1%151.00Annual growth in electricity sales from 2013 to 2024, w/ carbon tax-0.8%152.00Figures in Rows 151 and 152 are one-eleventh power of Rows 147 and 149, respectively, less one.153.00Difference in ann. growth in electricity sales to 2024, between having and not having C tax1.9%154.00Row 151 less Row 152.155.00156.00Demand Side, Part 2: The Boost in Electricity Prices that Will Cause the Dampening in Usage157.00Nominal2012$158.00Average actual retail electricity price, cents/kWh, 201310.099.91159.00Copied from Cells Q61 and Q62, respectively.160.00Avg retail electricity price, cents/kWh, 2024, w/o carbon tax11.819.51161.00Nominal figure is copied from cell AA27. Constant-$ 2012 price prorates nominal price by ratio of 2012$ to nominal price in next row below.162.00163.00Avg retail electricity price, cents/kWh, 2024, w/ carbon tax16.0612.93164.00Nominal figure is copied from cell Z61, and Constant-$ 2012 figure from Z62. Both figures have been hard-wired here.165.00Total percent growth in electricity price from 2013, w/o carbon tax17.0%-4.1%166.00Ratio of Row 161 to Row 159, less one.167.00Total percent growth in electricity price from 2013, w/ carbon tax59.1%30.4%168.00Ratio of Row 164 to Row 159, less one.169.00Annual growth in electricity price from 2013, w/o carbon tax1.4%-0.4%170.00Annual growth in electricity price from 2013, w/ carbon tax4.3%2.4%171.00Figures in Rows 170 and 171 are one-eleventh power of Rows 166 and 168, respectively, less one.172.00Difference in annual growth in electric price btwn having and not having carbon tax2.9%2.8%173.00Row 171 less Row 170.174.00175.00Demand Side, Part 3: Increase in Average Electric Bill with and without Carbon Tax176.00Annual growth in average electricity bill from 2013, w/o carbon tax2.5%0.7%177.00Product of one plus the % figure in Row 151 (sales) and one plus the % figure in Row 170 (price), less one.178.00Annual growth in average electricity bill from 2013, w/ carbon tax3.5%1.6%179.00Product of one plus the % figure in Row 152 (sales) and one plus the % figure in Row 171 (price), less one.180.00Diff. in annual growth in electric bills, between having and not having a carbon tax1.0%0.9%181.00Row 179 less Row 177.182.00183.00Supply Side184.00185.00The baroquely colored array below shows baseline (2013) U.S. electricity generation and CO2 emissions by fuel, and three scenarios for 2023.186.00187.00'2023, without a Carbon Tax' must generate 523,000 more GWh from all sources combined, than in 2012, while emitting barely more CO2 than was actually emitted in 2012. One way to do this is to greatly increase output from methane firing while increasing wind power output steadily and reducing coal-burning somewhat. This is shown in Rows 214-221.188.00189.00190.00191.00'2023, with a Carbon Tax: A High-Wind, Low-Methane Scenario,' generate 325,000 *fewer* GWh from all sources combined than in 2012, and emits less than half as much CO2 as was emitted in 2012. One way to do this is to increase output from wind turbines by 16% a year -- a growth rate less than the 29% rate over the past dozen years, but an extremely difficult rate to achieve/sustain when the 'base' is as large as wind is today. Meeting this target would require that 88,000 new large wind turbines be installed in the U.S. over the next decade. Were this to happen, coal and methane firing could/would both be curtailed substantially. This is shown in Rows 222-229.192.00193.00194.00195.00196.00197.00The last scenario, '2023, with a Carbon Tax: A Lower-Wind, Higher-Solar, Higher-Methane Scenario,' must meet the same GWh and CO2 targets/constraints as the preceding one. It does so with a lower wind-growth rate -- 8% a year rather than 16% -- which requires that 'only' 28,000 wind turbines be installed over the next decade, but a very rapid scale-up in solar-electric generation -- a 64-fold increase over the 2012 level. This scenario also entails an *increase* in methane-fired electricity generation from 2012 (though the approximately 10% increase is less of an increase than that shown in the 2023-no-carbon-tax scenario). Note the decimation of the coal-fired electricity generation sector in this scenario.198.00199.00200.00201.00202.00203.00SUPPLY SIDE SCENARIOS TO "MEET" THE ELECTRICITY GROWTH AND CO2 REDUCTION SCENARIOS PROJECTED IN THE MODEL204.00205.00Figs. below are annual growth rates from 2012 chosen for wind and solar generation2002-2012 annual growth rates are shown at rightCoalOilMethaneNukeHydroCelluloseGeothWindSolarOtherTotals206.00-1.8%-10.8%4.4%0.1%0.2%1.7%1.2%28.8%29.2%0.5%Figs. below are, respectively, GWh and CO2 "numerical targets" determined by the elasticity-driven model. Totals must equal them.207.00Actual 2013208.00Next 4 rows are U.S. Electricity Gen. in GWh and % avg lb CO2/kWh CO2 in Million Tonnes (calc'd as GWh x lb/GWh)209.001,586,00027,0001,114,000789,000269,00060,00017,000168,0009,25019,0004,058,000210.0039.1%0.7%27.5%19.4%6.6%1.5%0.4%4.1%0.2%0.5%100.0%211.002.191.700.881.101.11212.001,5742144700000092,050213.002024, without a CarbonTax214.00Next 4 rows are U.S. Electricity Gen. in GWh and % avg lb CO2/kWh CO2 in Million Tonnes (calc'd as GWh x lb/GWh)215.001,160,00027,0002,000,000673,000269,00060,00017,000287,00069,00019,0004,581,0004,581,123216.00Wind25.3%0.6%43.7%14.7%5.9%1.3%0.4%6.3%1.5%0.4%100.0%217.005%2.191.700.861.100.94218.00Solar1,1512178000000091,9612,073219.0020% vs. 2013(426,000)0886,000(116,000)000119,00060,0000523,000220.00# new wind turbines:15,000221.002023, with a Carbon Tax: A High-Wind, Low-Methane Scenario 222.00Next 4 rows are U.S. Electricity Gen. in GWh avg lb CO2/kWh CO2 in Million Tonnes (calc'd as GWh x lb/GWh)223.00550,00027,0001,045,000673,000269,00060,00017,000860,000213,00019,0003,733,0003,576,012224.00Wind14.7%0.7%28.0%18.0%7.2%1.6%0.5%23.0%5.7%0.5%100.0%225.0016%2.191.700.861.100.58226.00Solar546214080000009984980227.0033% vs. 2012(1,036,000)0(69,000)(116,000)000692,000204,0000(325,000)228.00# new wind turbines:88,000229.002023, with a Carbon Tax: A Lower-Wind, Higher-Solar, Higher-Methane Scenario 230.00Next 4 rows are U.S. Electricity Gen. in GWh avg lb CO2/kWh CO2 in Million Tonnes (calc'd as GWh x lb/GWh)231.00500,00027,0001,180,000673,000269,00060,00017,000392,000594,00019,0003,731,0003,576,012232.00Wind13.4%0.7%31.6%18.0%7.2%1.6%0.5%10.5%15.9%0.5%100.0%233.008%2.191.700.861.100.58234.00Solar496214600000009987980235.0046% vs. 2012(1,086,000)066,000(116,000)000224,000585,0000(327,000)236.00# new wind turbines:28,000237.00238.00CF of new wind turbines(assumption)30%239.00MW of new wind turbines(assumption)3.0240.00GWh/y of new wind turbines(calculation)7.9241.00242.00243.00
Personal Ground TravelPersonal Ground Travel7/16/141.02.0This page pertains only to Personal Ground Travel. Other pages show Electricity, Freight, Aviation, and Other Sectors.Covers passenger cars, but also ATV's, pleasure boats, etc.Tax Inputs (copied from 'Summary' Tab, Rows 58-71)3.0First-year tax per ton of CO2$11.344.0How tax will be incremented By Constant Amount5.0Annual rate of increment$11.346.0Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to four pages. Print area extends to 2033.Are above rates nominal or real?Real7.08.0All money figures in this tab are in nominal ("as-spent") dollars. Any conversions from real (inflation-adj'd) dollars have been made in Summary.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to est'd or actual data.Figures in column correspond to est'd or actual data.This and later years pivot off first tax year.9.010.011.0Parameters that pivot off assumptions in Summary sheet are shown in blue.12.0Parameters that user may vary in this worksheet are shown in magenta.20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203813.014.0Effective tax year, number0000012345678910111213141516171819202122232415.0Tax in year shown, in nominal $, per ton of CO2 (taken directly from 'Summary' tab, Row 86)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2316.00Tax equivalent, constant 2012 $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$10.74$21.44$32.08$42.68$53.23$63.73$74.18$84.58$94.94$105.25$115.51$125.72$135.89$146.01$156.09$166.12$176.10$186.03$195.92$205.77$215.56$225.32$235.02$244.6817.0Tax in year shown, in nominal $, per metric ton of CO2 emitted (shown for reference)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$12.50$25.40$38.71$52.43$66.58$81.17$96.21$111.70$127.66$144.10$161.03$178.46$196.41$214.88$233.89$253.46$273.58$294.28$315.57$337.46$359.97$383.11$406.89$431.3418.00Tax equivalent, in nominal $, per gallon of gasoline$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.11$0.22$0.33$0.45$0.56$0.68$0.79$0.91$1.03$1.15$1.27$1.40$1.52$1.65$1.77$1.90$2.03$2.17$2.30$2.44$2.57$2.71$2.85$2.9919.0Per-gallon surtax, nominal $ (applies if and only if carbon tax is surtaxed; figure at right is for initial yr)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0020.0Surtax equivalent, in nominal $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0021.0Total tax, nominal $, per gallon of gasoline$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.11$0.22$0.33$0.45$0.56$0.68$0.79$0.91$1.03$1.15$1.27$1.40$1.52$1.65$1.77$1.90$2.03$2.17$2.30$2.44$2.57$2.71$2.85$2.9922.0Total tax equivalent, nominal $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2323.024.0Million Btu per barrel, gasolineFrom .5.25325.0Btu per gallon, gasolineCell K25 divided by gals/bbl from 'Parameters' tab.125,07126.0lbs Carbon / gallon, gasolineFrom 'Emissions' tab, Row 113.5.3427.0Which is equivalent to this many pounds of carbon (not CO2) per 106 Btu:42.728.0lbs CO2 per gallon, gasoline19.5729.030.020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203831.0Historical Real Annual Increase Rate in U.S. Average Gasoline Price, 1990-2013:2.21%From Komanoff spreadsheet, "Price-Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," accessible via . See Full-Year Comparison page.32.0Assumed multiplier to that rate, for projecting post-2013 real increase in gasoline price:100%33.0CTC assumption, premised on continuation of factors causing real price to rise over past several decades (largely increasing cost to exploit "frontier"/"extreme" oil resources).34.0Projected annual rate of real increase in average gasoline price beyond 2013, w/o C tax2.21%35.0Product of Rows 32 and 35.36.037.0Historical and Projected Data for personal ground transportation (includes recreational boating), w/o carbon tax38.0CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax1,196.71,188.31,167.71,113.71,113.71,112.21,093.51,089.01,098.21,115.51,124.21,133.11,142.01,150.91,160.01,169.11,178.31,187.51,196.81,205.11,213.41,221.81,230.21,238.71,247.31,255.91,264.61,273.31,282.11,291.01,299.91,308.81,319.139.0Historical data are from 'Emissions' tab, Row 78. Figures after 2013 multiply projected fuel usage in Row 41 by CO2 emission factor for gasoline in Cell K29.40.0Fuel usage for personal ground transportation, million gallons, w/o carbon tax134,830133,890131,568125,484125,481125,315123,201122,694123,732125,682126,669127,663128,666129,676130,694131,720132,754133,797134,847135,778136,716137,660138,611139,568140,532141,502142,480143,463144,454145,452146,456147,468148,62541.0Historical figures divide Row 39 by CO2 emission factor per gallon of gasoline. Future figures apply income-elasticity for gasoline in Parameters page, Row 7, to assumed GDP growth rates in 'AEO' tab, Row 19, and same with price-elasticity for gasoline, to year-on-year ratio of real gasoline price in Row 55.42.043.020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203844.0Assumed reduxn in per-gallon CO2 emission rate per$10.00ton/CO2 tax1.0%45.0CTC estimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of biofuels, hydrogen, electricity, etc. as carbon component of gasoline grows more costly. Ideally, would be modeled with time lag. Note that reduction is assumed to persist despite eventual leveling of carbon tax.46.047.0Average retail gasoline price, per gallon, without carbon tax, nominal $$2.85$3.32$2.40$2.84$3.58$3.70$3.58$3.88$4.04$4.20$4.37$4.55$4.74$4.93$5.13$5.34$5.56$5.78$6.02$6.26$6.52$6.78$7.06$7.35$7.65$7.96$8.28$8.62$8.97$9.33$9.7148.0Historical values use source in Rows 32-33. Future values escalate and inflate year-2013 value by annual real incrs rate in Cell J35 and annual economy-wide inflation index in 'AEO' tab, Cell M20.49.0These empty rows are here to true this page with Freight worksheet. Latter requires additional rows to account for current local, state and federal excise taxes on diesel fuel that aren't included in the base diesel prices in that worksheet, whereas the gasoline prices directly above do include applicable taxes.50.051.052.053.054.0Average retail gasoline price, per gallon, without carbon tax, 2012 $$3.12$3.57$2.53$2.94$3.64$3.70$3.52$3.68$3.76$3.84$3.93$4.01$4.10$4.19$4.28$4.38$4.48$4.57$4.68$4.78$4.88$4.99$5.10$5.21$5.33$5.45$5.57$5.69$5.82$5.94$6.0855.0Calculated by dividing figures in Row 48 by AEO general inflation rate in 'tab' Cell O20 exponentiated to difference in years from 2012.56.0Average retail gasoline price, per gallon, with carbon tax, in nominal $$3.99$4.26$4.54$4.82$5.11$5.41$5.72$6.04$6.37$6.71$7.06$7.42$7.78$8.17$8.56$8.96$9.38$9.81$10.26$10.72$11.19$11.68$12.19$12.7157.0Sum of Rows 48 and 22.58.0Average retail gasoline price, per gallon, with carbon tax, in 2012 $$3.78$3.96$4.15$4.33$4.51$4.69$4.87$5.04$5.22$5.40$5.58$5.76$5.94$6.12$6.30$6.48$6.66$6.84$7.02$7.20$7.39$7.57$7.76$7.9559.0Calculated by dividing figures in Row 57 by AEO general inflation rate in 'tab' Cell O20 exponentiated to difference in years from 2012.60.0% increase in avg retail price of gasoline due to carbon tax (i.e., tax's price differential as % of price w/o tax)2.8%5.5%7.9%10.2%12.3%14.3%16.1%17.7%19.3%20.7%22.0%23.2%24.3%25.3%26.2%27.0%27.7%28.3%28.9%29.4%29.8%30.2%30.6%30.8%61.0Calculated as excess of Row 59 over Row 55.62.0CO2 emissions, lb / gallon19.5719.5719.5719.5719.5719.5719.5719.3619.1518.9518.7518.5518.3618.1617.9817.7917.6117.4317.2517.0716.9016.7316.5616.4016.2316.0715.9115.7615.6015.4515.3063.0Figures reduce baseline emission factor by percentage calculated from Row 17 and Cell J45 normalized by Cell G45.64.0Note: "Gasoline" in next array is shorthand for "personal ground transportation fuels"200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203865.0U.S. gasoline sales with carbon tax, million gallonsRow 41 (sales w/o c-tax), x (one plus Row 61) raised to gasoline price-elasticity.124,288124,003123,833123,767123,795123,907124,097124,358124,684125,071125,396125,773126,198126,668127,181127,733128,323128,949129,608130,300131,022131,773132,552133,48366.0CO2 from gasoline (personal ground travel), millions metric tons, w/ taxProduct of Rows 66 and 63, with appropriate conversion factor.1,0911,0771,0641,0521,0421,0321,0221,0141,00699999198497797196595995494994594093693392992667.0Change in CO2 due to tax, million metric tons, relative to moving trajectoryRow 67 less Row 39.(24.2)(47.1)(68.9)(89.6)(109.4)(128.5)(146.8)(164.5)(181.6)(198.2)(214.1)(229.6)(244.7)(259.4)(273.8)(287.9)(301.7)(315.3)(328.6)(341.7)(354.6)(367.3)(379.9)(392.7)68.0Change in CO2 due to tax, million metric tons, relative to 2005 emissionsRow 67 less Cell I39.(105.4)(119.6)(132.5)(144.3)(155.2)(165.2)(174.4)(182.9)(190.8)(198.0)(205.7)(212.9)(219.6)(225.9)(231.8)(237.3)(242.5)(247.4)(252.0)(256.3)(260.3)(264.1)(267.7)(270.2)69.0Carbon Tax Revenues, $ billions (w/o gasoline surtax component)Product of Rows 18 and 67, with appropriate conversion factor.$13.6$27.4$41.2$55.2$69.3$83.7$98.4$113.2$128.4$143.9$159.6$175.6$191.9$208.6$225.7$243.2$261.0$279.4$298.1$317.4$337.1$357.3$378.0$399.670.0Gasoline Surcharge Revenues, $ billions (w/o carbon tax component)Row 70 prorated by ratio of Rows 21 and 18.$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.0$0.071.0Total Tax Revenues, $ billions (combined carbon tax + gasoline surcharge)Sum of Rows 70 and 71.$13.6$27.4$41.2$55.2$69.3$83.7$98.4$113.2$128.4$143.9$159.6$175.6$191.9$208.6$225.7$243.2$261.0$279.4$298.1$317.4$337.1$357.3$378.0$399.672.073.0Assumed price-elasticity of demand for gasoline (long-run) 40%74.0See discussion in http://www.carbontax.org/issues/energy-demand-how-sensitive-to-price/75.076.0AnalysisNote: This section not included in Print Area.77.078.0This section examines "sources" of CO2 reductions, to determine relative amounts associated with demand side vs. supply side.79.080.081.0Year chosen for snapshot (10th year of tax):202482.083.0Gasoline sales w/o carbon tax (million gallons)134,84784.0Gasoline sales w carbon tax (million gallons)125,07185.0Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.9386.087.0Emission rate (CO2 per gallon) w/o carbon tax19.5788.0Emission rate (CO2 per gallon) w/ carbon tax17.6189.0Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.9090.091.0These entries are shown as a check, to ensure that ratio here is product of two prior ones.92.0Total CO2 emissions w/o carbon tax (million metric tons)1,19793.0Total CO2 emissions w/ carbon tax (million metric tons)99994.0Ratio (due to carbon tax)0.8395.096.0Product of two earlier ratios, above0.8397.098.0Ratio of "demand" shrinkage factor to 99.0"emissions rate" shrinkage factor:0.72100.0101.0 Share of total reduction attributable to demand42%102.0 Share of total reduxn attributable to emission rate58%103.0
FreightFreight7/16/141.02.0This page pertains only to Freight. Other pages show Electricity, Personal Ground Travel, Aviation, and Other Sectors.Covers freight movements by trucks, planes, barges, boats and trains.Key Tax Inputs (copied from 'Summary', Rows 58-71)3.0First-year tax per ton of CO2$11.344.0How tax will be incremented By Constant Amount5.0Annual rate of increment$11.346.0Note: This worksheet is pre-formatted to print to four pages. Print area extends to 2033.Are above rates nominal or real?Real7.08.0All money figures in this tab are in nominal ("as-spent") dollars. Any conversions from real (inflation-adj'd) dollars have been made in Summary.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.Figures in column correspond to actual data.This and later years pivot off first tax year.9.010.011.0Parameters that pivot off assumptions in Summary sheet are shown in blue.12.0Parameters that user may vary in this worksheet are shown in magenta.20052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203813.014.0Effective tax year, number0000012345678910111213141516171819202122232415.0Tax in year shown, in nominal $, per ton of CO2 (taken directly from 'Summary' tab, Row 86)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2316.00Tax equivalent, constant 2012 $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$10.74$21.44$32.08$42.68$53.23$63.73$74.18$84.58$94.94$105.25$115.51$125.72$135.89$146.01$156.09$166.12$176.10$186.03$195.92$205.77$215.56$225.32$235.02$244.6817.0Tax in year shown, in nominal $, per metric ton of CO2 emitted (shown for reference)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$12.50$25.40$38.71$52.43$66.58$81.17$96.21$111.70$127.66$144.10$161.03$178.46$196.41$214.88$233.89$253.46$273.58$294.28$315.57$337.46$359.97$383.11$406.89$431.3418.00Tax equivalent, in nominal $, per gallon of diesel fuel$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.13$0.25$0.38$0.51$0.64$0.78$0.91$1.04$1.18$1.32$1.46$1.60$1.74$1.89$2.04$2.18$2.33$2.49$2.64$2.79$2.95$3.11$3.27$3.4419.0Per-gallon surtax, nominal $ (applies if and only if carbon tax is surtaxed; figure at right is for initial yr)$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0020.0Surtax equivalent, in nominal $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.0021.0Total tax, nominal $, per gallon of diesel fuel$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.13$0.25$0.38$0.51$0.64$0.78$0.91$1.04$1.18$1.32$1.46$1.60$1.74$1.89$2.04$2.18$2.33$2.49$2.64$2.79$2.95$3.11$3.27$3.4422.0Total tax equivalent, nominal $, per ton of CO2$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00$11.34$23.04$35.11$47.56$60.39$73.63$87.26$101.31$115.79$130.70$146.06$161.87$178.15$194.91$212.15$229.89$248.14$266.92$286.23$306.09$326.50$347.49$369.06$391.2323.024.0Million Btu per barrel, dieselFrom .5.82525.0Btu per gallon, diesel138,69026.0lbs Carbon per gallon, diesel6.1227.0Which is equivalent to this many pounds of carbon (not CO2) per 106 Btu:44.228.0lbs CO2 per gallon, diesel22.4629.030.020052006200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203831.0Historical Real Annual Increase Rate in U.S. Average Diesel Price, 1990-2013:3.88%Excludes taxes. Calculated in 'Energy' tab, Rows 137-152.32.0Assumed multiplier to that rate, for projecting post-2013 real increase in diesel price:75%3,74333.0CTC assumption, on premise that some of historical increase was largely non-recurring cost to fulfill cleaner-fuel (lower-sulfur) standards.34.0Projected annual rate of real increase in average diesel price beyond 2012, w/o C tax2.91%- 035.0Product of Rows 32 and 33.- 036.037.0Historical and Projected Data for freight transportation, w/o carbon tax38.0CO2 emissions, millions of metric tons, w/o carbon tax510.3525.9556.0530.9477.0500.7495.9483.0493.3497.6499.7501.8503.9506.0508.0510.1512.1514.1516.1517.6519.0520.5521.9523.4524.8526.2527.6528.9530.3531.6532.9534.2536.039.0Historical data are from 'Emissions' tab, Row 82. Figures after 2013 multiply projected fuel usage in Row 41 by CO2 emission factor for diesel fuel in Cell K29.40.0Fuel usage for freight transportation, million gallons, w/o carbon tax50,10851,63654,59152,12746,83749,16148,69647,42948,44148,86149,06849,27449,47949,68149,88350,08350,28150,47850,67450,82050,96551,10851,25051,39051,52951,66651,80151,93552,06852,19952,32952,45852,63441.0Historical figures divide Row 39 by CO2 emission factor per gallon of diesel fuel. Future figures apply income-elasticity for diesel fuel in Parameters page, Row 7, to assumed GDP growth rates in 'AEO' tab, Row 19, and same with price-elasticity for diesel fuel, to year-on-year ratio of real diesel fuel price in Row 52.42.043.0200720082009201020112012201320152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203844.0Assumed reduxn in per-gallon CO2 emission rate per$10.00ton/CO2 tax1.0%45.0CTC estimate, intended to reflect increased penetration of biofuels, hydrogen, electricity, etc. as carbon component of diesel grows more costly. Ideally, would be modeled with time lag. Note that reduction is assumed to persist despite eventual leveling of carbon tax.46.047.0Average retail diesel price per gallon, w/o carbon tax (excludes state and local taxes), nominal $$2.28$3.13$1.84$2.32$3.11$3.20$3.12$3.43$3.59$3.76$3.94$4.13$4.33$4.54$4.75$4.98$5.22$5.47$5.73$6.01$6.29$6.59$6.91$7.24$7.59$7.95$8.33$8.73$9.15$9.59$10.0448.0Historical values use Row 149 of 'Energy' tab. Future values escalate and inflate year-2013 fig by annual real incrs rate in Cell J35 and economy-wide price (inflation) index in 'AEO' tab, Cell M20.49.0Average federal, state and local taxes on diesel fuel, per gallon, nominal $$0.49$0.50$0.51$0.52$0.53$0.54$0.55$0.57$0.58$0.60$0.61$0.62$0.63$0.6
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