CTAP Project Area  I-93 Community Technical Assistance Program

CTAP Project Area I-93 Community Technical

Assistance Program

OverviewOverview

Growth context

Growth consequences

How should we grow?

The premise and promise of CTAP

I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study

Population 40,626 additional

population in 29 communities (35,314 in 23 NH communities)

5% additional population overall– 7% in NH– 12% in smaller Towns

(< 10,000 population)0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2000-2020 2000-2020

(NH Portion)

SecondaryGrowth

BackgroundGrowth

26%

84%

I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study

Employment 21,527 additional

jobs in 29 communities (15,952 in 23 NH communities)

5.5% additional growth overall– 6.8% in NH– 13% in smaller Towns

(< 10,000 population) 0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2000-2020 2000-2020

(NH Portion)

SecondaryGrowth

BackgroundGrowth

17%

83%

I-93 Secondary Impacts StudyI-93 Secondary Impacts Study

Land Conversion 20,223 additional acres

in 29 communities (18,089 in 23 NH communities)

Larger increases in conversion in smaller towns (larger lot sizes)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000-2020 2000-2020

(NH Portion)

SecondaryGrowth

BackgroundGrowth

27%

73%

Growth Segment – Background vs. Growth Segment – Background vs. SecondarySecondary

Base Growth(20%)

I-93 Induced

(7%)

Growth 2000-2020

(27%)

2000 Popl.(73%)

Projected Population in 2020:557,687

Base Growth:112,567

Secondary Growth:39,231

Summary – Secondary ImpactsSummary – Secondary Impacts

Existing(2000)

Growth 2000-2020 w/o I-93

Growth2000-2020 with I-93

Annual Growth (with I-93)

Population 373,000 101,376 136,690 6,830

Employment 158,300 67,265 83,217 4,160

Land (acres developed)

NA 46,698 64,156 3,208

Population Growth in CTAP CommunitiesPopulation Growth in CTAP Communities

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

-NB

2020

-B

Population TrendsPopulation Trends

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Census (1970-2000: 1.9%/yr.)

OEP Projections (2000-2025: 1.1%/yr.)

I-93 Induced Growth (2000-2020: 1.6%/yr.)

Ex-Urban Population Growth - CTAP Ex-Urban Population Growth - CTAP CommunitiesCommunities

Concord, Manch., Salem, Derry80%

All Others

20%

Concord Manch., Salem, Derry52%

All Others

48%

1940 2020

Population: 141,474 Population: 405,889

7X growth(168,112) 2X growth

(96,303)

Land Use - 1962Land Use - 1962

Land Use - 1974Land Use - 1974

Land Use - 1998Land Use - 1998

Land ConsumptionLand Consumption

Change in developed land, 1962 – 1998:– From 36,519 acres (7.9%) to 98,417 acres

(21.2%)– Increase of 61,898 acres, or 13.3% of the county

Average of 1750 acres of conversion per year. Average land ‘consumption’ per unit of

development increasing

Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)

Developed Road FrontageDeveloped Road Frontage

Miles of developed road frontage:

Total Road Frontage

Developed Road Frontage

% Developed

1962 161.9 48.2 29.8%

1974 187.2 86.5 46.2%

1998 254.3 163.4 64.3%

Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)

Impervious SurfaceImpervious Surface

Total impervious area values above approximately 5% are associated with impaired water quality

Residential Acres All Developed Acres

% Impervious

1962 59.2 310.4 1.7%

1974 119.4 470.6 2.6%

1998 295.2 807.5 4.5%

Source: Forty Years of Land Use Change in Rockingham and Strafford Counties, Complex System Research Center and CICEET)

Traffic Growth AcceleratesTraffic Growth Accelerates

Population vs. Traffic GrowthComparison of Growth Rates - 1980 to 2003

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Sta

rtin

g V

alu

e =

1

Population Growth

Traffic Growth

Linear (Traffic Growth)

Linear (Population Growth)

Land Use - 1962Land Use - 1962

Land Use - 1998Land Use - 1998

Implications of Existing Growth PatternImplications of Existing Growth Pattern

Land consumption Environment: air and water quality Travel demand & congestion Road infrastructure and maintenance Energy consumption Community design, character, ‘social capital’ Public health & wellness

Some Key Planning Principles for the FutureSome Key Planning Principles for the Future

Concentrate development to conserve land, and to maximize use/efficiency of infrastructure

Prevent or limit development in areas with high conservation value, and link those areas in regional networks

Move toward multi-density zoning model (rural towns), (Villages & town, mixed use centers/Conservation Zones/Density transfers)

Build on brownfields, not greenfields Utilize minimum impact development techniques and green

building design Preserve historic buildings and other cultural and community

assets Balance job growth with housing supply Encourage development that can be efficiently served by

pedestrian, bicycle and transit