CSLI Fall 2009 Survey Findings Voting Trends in AA County

Dan Nataf Ph.D.Director

Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College101 College Parkway

Arnold, MD 21012-1895http:www2.aacc.edu/csli

[email protected]

5754

5855

6266

60 61 6258 58

5357 55

51 52 51 50 5247

2327 25 24 23

15

2621

2531

2429 27 26

29 2733 32 31

28

20 19 1720

1519

1418

13 12

19 18 16 18 20 2116 17 17

25

Right 5152

Wrong 3427

Unsure 15 21

05

10152025303540455055606570

Sp '9

9

Fa '9

9

Sp '0

0

Fa '0

0

Sp '0

1

Fa '0

1

Sp '0

2

Fa '0

2

Sp '0

3

Fa '0

3

Sp '0

4

Fa '0

4

Sp '0

5

Fa '0

5

Sp '0

6

Fa '0

6

Sp '0

7

Fa '0

7

Sp '0

8

Fa '0

8

Sp '0

9

Fa '0

9

Right Wrong Unsure

8

12

8 7 7

15

7

12

8

23

38

48

33

17

54

65

6

11 119

10

64

68

7

17

22

12

16

1213

16

12 12 1210

87

1315

8

14

18

22

16

21

16 16

12

9

5 5

14

1110

17

9

14

9

1211

12

76

45

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

F '03 S '04 F '04 S '05 F '05 S '06 F '06 S '07 F '07 S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 Mean

Economy

Taxes – too high

Crime

Education

Growth/development

Traffic congestion/problems

Fall 2009

Spring 2009

Fall 2008

Spring 2008

Median

How would you rate economic conditions in… excellent, good, only fair or poor?

How would you rate economic conditions (% saying excellent or good) by employment category

How would you rate economic conditions ( % saying excellent or good) by income, gender, marital status, race, party, ideology

How would you rate economic conditions by “does X condition apply” - % saying excellent or good

Anne Arundel County

Economic Condition This year

Next year

Future year

Median year

N.A.

A stabilization of housing values 8 35 51 2012 7A return to steady growth of the economy

5 32 59 2012 5

A major reduction in the unemployment rate

4 31 61 2012 4

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for state and local government budgets

3 16 68 2014 13

A return to a better balance between revenues and expenditures for the federal government’s budget

3 10 73 2015 14

47

3532

29 29 2924

1711

8

05

101520253035404550

% Saying “Better”

Health Care Quality/Access

Budget cutting measure About right

Too

big

Too small

N.A.

The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave

51 37 7 6

Laying off 200 state employees 38 45 7 9The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland

32 41 8 19

The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County

31 47 9 13

Cutting a combined $30 million in health-related funding

23 60 6 11

Support Oppose Unsure N.A.

Maintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland

79 15 5 1

Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools

78 17 4 1

Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off

36 59 4 1

Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments

24 58 15 4

  All Dem Rep Ind. D-RMaintaining the tuition freeze at the University of Maryland 79 79 79 85 0Maintaining the level of state funding for public schools 78 81 76 77 5Requiring school employees to take several unpaid days off 36 39 36 30 3Shifting the cost of teachers’ pensions to local governments 24 23 28 20 -5

  All DemRep Ind. D-R

The governor’s policy of making state employees take three to 10 days of unpaid leave

51 55 50 47 5

Laying off 200 state employees

38 37 40 46 -3

The proposal to cut $210 million in state aid to localities in Maryland

32 29 39 36 -10

The proposal to cut $15 million in local aid to Anne Arundel County

31 30 36 27 -6

Cutting a combined $30 million in health-related funding

23 17 30 28 -13

  O’Malley doing poor job %

Ideology   Conservative 55

Moderate 33Liberal 10

Conservative-Liberal 45Party  

Democrat 21Republican 62Independent 38

Democrat-Republican -41

% saying “support”

% saying “about right” O’Malley’s job balancing budgetGood=13%; Okay=42%; Poor=38%

Main problem… Overall Dem Rep Unaffil. D-R

Deficit/Debt 10 7 15 7 -8Budget/Overspending 8 5 11 8 -6Defense/Homeland Sec./Terrorism

4 2 7 0 -5

Economy 21 20 22 17 -2Unemployment 4 3 3 8 0Taxes 2 2 3 3 -1Wars in Afghan/Iraq 9 12 4 15 8Health care 18 20 15 19 5Environment/Climate change 2 3 0 0 3Education 1 3 0 0 3

National Issues:: Presidential job approval

3934 35

28 24

5347

37 33 32 3025

6154

010203040506070

Fall '06 Spring'07

Fall '07 Spring'08

Fall '08 Spring'09

Fall '09

CSLI Gallup

Bush

Obama

% approving of president’s job by party

Demographics

Party Non33 Dist 33 DiffDem 46 33 13Rep 37 39 -2Unaffiliated 12 19 -7Ideology Con 35 36 -1Mod 46 42 4Lib 15 16 -1Education HS or less 15 13 2Some Coll 35 29 6BA 23 27 -4PostGrad 22 27 -5Income Under $75k 36 30 6Over $75k 49 57 -8

AttitudesWhich party do you trust Non33 Dist 33 DiffDem 41 29 12Rep 30 22 8Neither 23 38 -15Presidential Job Approval Approve 48 45 3 Disapprove 41 46 -5O'Malley Okay/Good job 55 55 0Fed Policy Confident Not Effective 47 49 -2Health Care unavailable 35 27 8Health Care Quality Better 2020 31 26 5Health Care Access Better 2020 32 31 1Unemployment applies 25 22 3Taxes too high applies 60 57 3

Overlay of Legislative and Councilmanic Districts