Planetary Vital Signs, Planetary Decisions, Planetary Intelligence Public Mistrust of Global Temperature Ocean Heat Risk Indicators Planetary Intelligence Charles F Kennel & Stephen Briggs, Seminar presentaGon to Centre for Study of ExistenGal Risk, University of Cambridge, February 26, 2016, in collaboraGon with David Victor, School of Global Policy and Strategies, UCSD
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Gaps between sparse data of different types taken at ill-assortedpoints far fromoneanother inspaceandGmemustbefilledinbymulG-parametermodelsconstructedfromotherdataandphysics-basedcalculaGons.Theresultsdepend ontheaccuracyandcompletenessofthemeasurements,the realismandprecisionofthemodels,andtherigorofthestaGsGcaltechniquesusedtomergedataandmodels.Progress is recursive. Improvements in observaGons,theoreGcal understanding,models, staGsGcal techniques, andcomputaGonal capacity produce new results that, treated asdatainsubsequentmodels,startthecycleofreanalysisagain.
Theoceanstakeupmorethan90%oftheenergyadded to the climate system by humans. Theatmosphere,2%.The heat content of the ocean is our bestmeasureofhumanity’simpactontheclimate.ItsGmehistoryandgeographicaldistribuGonhelpusunderstandwhether the changes we are seeingare incidental or fundamental. It tells us howmuch climate risk we are storing up for thefuture.Fortunately,wecannowmeasureit.
Global surface temperature is the benchmarkthatallclimatemodelsaretunedto.WouldtheirperformanceimproveiftheywereconstrainedtoopGmizethewaytheyjointlysaGsfytemperatureandoceanheatcontentconstraints? Wouldthemodels beRer separate anthropogenic warmingfrom “natural variaGons”? Would decisionmakers have looked at both temperature andoceanheatcontentifthemodelershaddoneso?
WhatifOHChadalsobeenabenchmarkforclimatemodeling?
That an importantpolicydebatehasbeenhostage todelicateaspects of reanalysis shows how tricky reliance on a singleindicator can be. Had ocean heat content been as visible asglobal temperature, it would have made clear to all thathumansweresGlladdingenergytotheclimatesystem.Climatechange was not slowing down, only global surface warmingwas.Of course, ocean heat content data, indeed all climate Gmeseries,are fragile in thesamewayas temperaturehasproventobe.Butthatisthepoint.Whenallindicatorsarefragile,youshouldnotrelyonone;youriskover-focusingpolicyonit. Youlook at a number of different ones and ask whether they allpointinthesamegeneraldirecGon. Youlookatthebalanceofevidence.
Is it possible to use the tools at hand-observaGons from space and groundnetworks; demographic, economic andsocietal measures; big data staGsGcaltechniques; numerical models, andmoderncommunicaGons-toproduceglobalconGnuous awareness of the nature andevolvingrisksofclimatechange?
GlobalConGnuousAwareness
Mydear lady,hereatUCLAtheyfirstinterconnected computers. Soontherewillbeaworld-widenetwork.Itwill first be used to manage globalfinance, but the expansion ofeconomic acGvity it induces willcreate so much polluGon that it willbeaskedtomanageoureconomyandenvironment in harmony with oneanother. People will want day-by-day, minute-by-minute adapGvemanagement, for which they neitherhave the paGence or quickness ofmind. So they will connect theirenvironmental sensors directly totheir computer network. At thatpoint,theywillhavecreatedaplanetawareofitsowninternalprocesses,aplanetary consciousness. And that,dear lady, is what will communicatewithsimilarenGGesacrossthegalaxy.