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CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved Slide 1
CSE7315M23
January 8, 2004
SMU CSE 7315 / NTU SE 584-NPlanning and Managing a
Software Project
Module 23Cycle Time Management and
Negotiation
Page 2
Slide # 2 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Objectives of This Module• To introduce basic concepts of
cycle time management• To discuss negotiation of estimates
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Slide # 3 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Introduction toCycle Time Management
• Cycle time is addressed in more detail in the course CSE8314 (NTU SE 762-N).
• Here we present some simple tips for cycle time management.
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Slide # 4 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Detailed Planning Process
EstimateSize
EstimateEffort and
Cost
EstimateScheduleEvaluate
Source InformationStatement of Work
RequirementsConstraintsStandardsProcesses
Historyetc.
WBS Size
Effort &
Cost
Schedule
OKCompleteDetailedPlanning
Revise &Negotiate
Not OK
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Slide # 5 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
What Is Cycle Time?• The amount of time it takes from the
beginning of your project to the end• You must count everything,
including delays, waits, etc.
Looking at cycle time helps you see causes for schedule slips that you might miss using other methods
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Slide # 6 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
What Makes Cycle Time High?
• Excessive inventory or work in process (WIP)– Work waiting around but not being done– Higher overhead, longer delays
• Process flow variability– Excessive waiting and long queues
• Complexity and inefficiency of processes– Redundant and unnecessary steps
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Slide # 7 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
3 Steps to Cycle Time Reduction
1. Reduce variability2. Simplify the process3. Reduce WIP
N
A VY
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CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved Slide 8
CSE7315M23
January 8, 2004
Reducing Variability
Too often, we create variability -- mistakenly thinking we are
improving performanceFor example, expediting some
parts of the work due to “priorities”
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Slide # 9 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 700
10
20
30
PERCENT EXPEDITED
• When we expedite a task, other tasks are delayed
• In some cases, each task waits until it is expedited before it moves at all
Cycle
Tim
e M
ultip
lier
for U
nexp
edite
d Ta
sks
Expediting is Bad for Cycle Time
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Slide # 10 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
BAU
7 14 21 28CYCLE TIME (DAYS)
NumberOf
Tasks
ExpeditedTasks Delinquent
Tasks
7 14 21 28
NumberOf
Tasks
CYCLE TIME (DAYS)
With managed priorities, you
improve the normal case and reduce the
need for “priority tasks”
Managed Expediting
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CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved Slide 11
CSE7315M23
January 8, 2004
Inefficient Processes
Often our processes are inefficient because of factors
that we have not paid attention to
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Slide # 12 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Examples of Inefficient Processes and Procedures
• Tools do not share data• Individuals do not understand each others’
work• Excessive time and effort spent on interfaces
between different individuals and organizations
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Slide # 13 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Waste Due to Inefficient Processes and Procedures
Cycle time is wasted on such activities as:
Real WorkConversionCorrectingLanguages
– Converting documents and software from one tool/format to another
– Correcting problems due to different programming styles
– Handling interfaces between programs written in different languages
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CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey, All Rights Reserved Slide 14
CSE7315M23
January 8, 2004
Reducing Work In Process (WIP)
The Key is Smooth Flow
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Slide # 15 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Smooth Flow
• The ideal process flows smoothly, like a train running on tracks.
• Note: tracks are empty most of the time
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Slide # 16 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Uneven Flow• The typical process runs unevenly,
like vehicles on a city street– Lots of entrances and
exits– Vehicles of different sizes and speeds– Some drivers are uncertain of what they
want to do– Lots of stoplights to “control” the flow
(mainly to prevent collisions)• Streets are usually crowded (with WIP!)
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Slide # 17 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Webster’s definitions:•Utilize: to make use of•Busy: constantly active or in motion•Productive: yielding or furnishing
results, benefits or profitsWe tend to measure utilization by how
busy we are, but utilization tells us little about how productive we are
We should work to increase productivity•This may require decreasing
utilization!
Utilization vs Productivity
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Slide # 18 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
EFFECTIVE UTILIZATION
CYCL
E TI
ME
Running assets at a high effective utilization
requires a costly cycle time trade off
For details of theory,
see Gross and
Harris in reference
list.
100%
Why Reduce Utilization of Critical Resources?
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Slide # 19 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Other Cycle Time Hints
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Slide # 20 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
• Practitioners generally focus on their work and on what they think is happening rather than on what is happening– They tend not to see all of the waits, queues,
etc. that they cause themselves– Their perception of how they spend their
time is generally incorrect
Practitioners May Not See Problems and Opportunities
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Slide # 21 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Just as athletes rely on coaches, software
engineers need to learn to trust in
others to observe and help them do
betterEgoless
Programming
Independent Observers See Problems and Opportunities
• They are not so busy getting the job done to see how they might improve it
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Slide # 22 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Software Developers Are Accustomed to Improving
Cycle Time • Think of your software development process as a large computer program that runs too slow. How would you make it run faster?
• Imagine how you would speed up a computer program . . . . . . . .
• Then draw analogies to the software development process -- and improve the process the way you would improve a program
Page 23
Slide # 23 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Examples of Software Cycle Time Techniques
• “Just-in-time” training• Plan testing / test equipment in advance• Rethink the detailed design process
– Do you need to maintain detailed design documentation?– Do you need to do detailed design at all?
• Use on-line requirements and design models instead of paper documents and specifications
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Slide # 24 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Examples of Commonly Found Cycle Time Obstacles
• Poor communication /cooperation between software development and the rest of the organization
• Poor management of unstable requirements, algorithms & interfaces
• Contention for test assets -- need better planning, assets allocated to software test
• Poorly qualified subcontractors
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Slide # 25 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
More Cycle Time Obstacles• Excessive paperwork, signatures,
and reporting– Negotiate reductions with
management and customer• Reuse of software not designed for
reuse• Attempts to use the latest tools
and methods -- without adequate support and integration
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Slide # 26 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Negotiating
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Slide # 27 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Detailed Planning Process
EstimateSize
EstimateEffort and
Cost
EstimateScheduleEvaluate
Source InformationStatement of Work
RequirementsConstraintsStandardsProcesses
Historyetc.
WBS Size
Effort &
Cost
Schedule
OKCompleteDetailedPlanning
Revise &Negotiate
Not OK
Page 28
Slide # 28 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
If the Plan is Not Feasible• DO examine assumptions and data
– initial cost estimates are often very conservative
• DO examine risk/cost tradeoffs to see if you can accept a higher risk
• DO make a list of barriers that must be removed in order to make the estimate fit the constraints
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Slide # 29 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
“The quickest way to make a project uneconomical is by
doubling the resources needed and using the cover story that you need
to prevent failures.” Adams, The Dilbert Principle
If the Plan is Not Feasible• DO NOT “cave in” & lower
everything to meet a target cost or schedule
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Slide # 30 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
The Negotiation ProcessWe MUST have
the lowest bid!!!We will, boss!!!
Management will try to trim the budget by sending an army of low-ranking, clueless budget
analysts to interview you and ask “insightful” questions. Adams, The
Dilbert Principle
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Slide # 31 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Re-think key factors
Spreadsheet for estimating
This will never satisfy the cost
goal!???!
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Slide # 32 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Identify Opportunities and Barriers
Barriers
Opportunities to Cut
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Slide # 33 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Negotiate
If they will cut back on the reviews
and ...
Well, I’ll think about
it
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Slide # 34 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Beware ... Estimates are Never
Perfect
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Slide # 35 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Estimating Accuracy vs. Phase
0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.54
4.5
Feasibility Plans Design DetailedDesign
CodeandTest
Release
Upper LimitActual
Lower Limit
• Typical Estimates
• • • • • • •
•
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Slide # 36 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Some Opportunities to Offer• Plan to re-estimate after
important milestones• Prioritize requirements and
promise to deliver the top ones by the deadline – Incremental deliveries
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Slide # 37 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Some Opportunities to Offer (continued)
• Put a high cost on requirements changes
• Look at each “adjustment factor” in Cocomo as an opportunity
• Get training for everyone
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Slide # 38 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Some Typical Barriers to Faster Schedule or Lower Cost• Lack of adequate resources
– Software, tools, people, etc.• Slow approval cycles for required
resources• Poor coordination with other disciplines,
other companies, etc.• Customers, peers in other disciplines,
and managers who don’t understand software development very well
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Slide # 39 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Some Difficult Barriers to Faster Schedule or Lower Cost
• Irascible and irrational customers & managers
• Intentional barriers– Competitors, etc– Political constraints
Page 40
Slide # 40 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Negotiating Tip . . .• The more facts you have, the
better off you are during negotiation
• Get them to review your estimate
– Sometimes they don’t bother• Be well prepared to explain it
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Slide # 41 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Several Iterations are Likely
• Identify the factors that affect the cost and schedule– Experience levels, stability levels, etc.
• Examine sensitivity of the results to various factors
• Examine historical data to make a better picture of probable events
• Don’t put too much faith in the accuracy of models
That’s why you should use a spreadsheet!
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Slide # 42 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Module Summary - I• Cycle time problems are usually
traced to three factors:– Variability in processes– Inefficient processes– Excessive work in process (WIP)
• Many cycle time improvements require looking at the whole process instead of just individual steps of the process
Page 43
Slide # 43 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
Module Summary - II• When the plans show that there is
not enough time or money to do the job,
NEGOTIATE - don’t CAPITULATE
• Having the facts will help you in the negotiation process
• Expect several iterations
Page 44
Slide # 44 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
END OFMODULE 23
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Slide # 45 January 8, 2004
CSE 7315 - SW Project Management / Module 23 - Cycle Time Management and
NegotiationCopyright © 1995-2004, Dennis J. Frailey,
All Rights ReservedCSE7315M23
References• Goldratt, Eliyahu M. & Jeff Cox, The
Goal, (North River Press, 1984.) Also, Theory of Constraints and It’s Not Luck.
• Gross and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, Wiley, pp 10-11, 101-102
• Swartz, James B., The Hunters and the Hunted, (Portland, Oregon, Productivity Press, 1994) ISBN 1-56327-043-9