CS-21 for NWC Fleet Seminar

Coopera've  Strategy  for  the  21st  Century  (CS-­‐21)

Agenda

Patterns  of  Acceptance  

Strategy Naval  Strategy CS-­‐21 An  Inter-­‐Naval  Era?

Dialog/Q&A

Pa8erns  of  Acceptance

INNOVATION SHOEHORNING New Combined Arms

Ubiquity

Brigading

“Shoehorning’    

Incorporate  the  innovation  into  existing  ways  of  doing  business.  E.G.  –  replace  pike  with  bayonet

BrigadingSegregate  the  innovation  into  its  own  organizational  

box.Example-­‐Strategic  Bombing

UbiquityInnovation  disseminates  broadly  across  the  institutionExamples:    -­‐Machine  guns  on  everything  from  infantry  to  airplanes-­‐Airplanes  on  all  types  of  ships-­‐GPS  for  everyone

New  Combined  ArmsRecast  Doctrine  around  the  innovation.Examples:   Re-­‐arrange  Pike/Musket  square  into  linear  formation  with  rolling  volley  fire.

Heavy  weapons  (Storm)  units  in  WW  I  and  II,  mix  of  machine  guns,  mortars,  infantry.

Bo2om  lineEven  when  innovation  has  proven  its  value,  there  still  remains  uncertainty  about  how  

and  where  it  fits  in  the  organization.  It  may  pass  through  several  “boxes”

Strategy  –  a  Review The  Arthur  Lykke  Model

Ends

Ways

Means

Strategy  as  ProcessFrank  Hoffman,  April  2012  Proceedings  on  “CS-­‐21”

“Good  Strategy  involves  hard  choices,  clear  objectives,  a  continuous  assessment  of  risks,  and  priorities.    …a  refreshed  iteration  of  CS-­‐21  should  do  the  same.”

Strategy  Answers  Ques'ons "Any  strategic  decision  is  in  essence  unusually  simple.    It  answers  the  questions,  who,  where,  and  when?  In  reality,  strategy  knows  only  three  elements  of  measure:  mass,  space,  and  time."    

          A.A.  Svechin

“With 30,000 men in transports the

English…can paralyze 300,000 of my Army,

and that will reduce us to a second-class

power.”Napoleon Bonaparte

Naval Strategy –Theory

Prefiguring  Corbe8The  Olney  Dispatch

To  Great  Britain,  1895:“The  United  States  is  practically  sovereign  on  this  continent  and  its  fiat  is  law  upon  the  subjects  to  which  it  confines  its  interposition.    Why?    It  is  not  because  of  the  pure  friendship  or  good-­‐will  felt  for  it.    It  is  not  simply  by  reason  of  its  high  character  as  a  civilized  state,  nor    because  wisdom  and  equity  are  the  invariable  characteristics  of  the  

dealing  of  the  United  States.

Olney  as  Corbe8  (cont)It  is  because  in  addition  to  all  other  grounds,  its  infinite  resources  combined  with  its  ISOLATED  POSITION  render  it  MASTER  of  the  situation  and  practically  INVULNERABLE  against  ANY  AND  ALL  OTHER  POWERS.”

[SO  THERE]

Coopera've  Strategy  for  the  21st  Century  (CS-­‐21)

Carl  von  Clausewitz,    1813-­‐1814?

“AGAIN,  UNFORTUNATELY,  WE  ARE  DEALING  WITH  JARGON,  WHICH,  AS  USUAL,    BEARS  ONLY  A  FAINT  RESEMBLANCE  TO  WELL  DEFINED,  SPECIFIC  CONCEPTS.”  1827  

Context/Founda'on Geography  -­‐    Earth  a  maritime  planet.

Demography,  populations  move  toward  water

International  Trade  moves  and  is  fueled…

FROM  THE  SEA…

Purpose-­‐Corbe8  

“...INTEGRATES  SEAPOWER  WITH  OTHER  ELEMENTS  OF  NATIONAL  POWER…”

END  or  ENDSTATES? “…Protect  our  way  of  life…”

“…Protecting  the  homeland…”

Consistent  with  the  grand  strategic  ends  enumerated  in  the  Preamble  to  the  Constitution.

“establish  Justice,  insure  domestic  Tranquility,  provide  for  the  common  defense,  promote  the  general  Welfare,  and  secure  the  Blessings  of  Liberty  to  ourselves  and  our  Posterity.”

Ends  or  Ways?“…winning  our  Nation’s  wars…”

“…corresponding  commitment  to  preventing  war.”

Ways “…secure    United  State  from  direct  attack…”

“..secure  strategic  access…”

“…retain  global  freedom  of  action…”

“…strengthen…alliances  and  partnerships”

“…establish  favorable  security  conditions…”

Means US  NAVY

US    Coast  Guard

US  Marine  Corps

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$/Popular  Will  (ways  or  means?)

“To  successfully  implement  this  strategy  the  Sea  Services  must  collectively  

expand  the  core  capabilities  of  U.S.  seapower  to  achieve  a  blend  of  

peacetime…and…combat  capabilities.”

How  is  this  workin’  out?

Robert  Kaplan CS-­‐21    a  nuanced  call  for  a  bigger  Navy?

If  so,    per  Hoffman:“The  next  iteration  should  be  more  forceful,  and  less  

nuanced.”*

*From  Hoffman’s  April  Proceedings  article

Hoffman’s  Cri'queNot  enough  linking  of  ends  ways  and  means

More  specifically,    means—bigger  navy  needed

Audience?      Ultimately,  the  Navy

The  Mission  List   Forward  Presence    (Where?)

Deterrence  (Who?)

Sea  Control    (Where?)

Power  Projection  (Where?  When?)

The  Mission  List  (cont)  

Power  Projection  (Where?  When?  How?

Maritime  Security    (what??)

Humanitarian  Assistance  and  Disaster  Response  (where?)

Improve  Integration  and  Interoperability  (Huh?)

The  Mission  List  (cont) Enhance  Awareness  (whose?)

Prepare  our  People    (How?)

Redefini'on?

SEAPOWER  WILL  BE  A  UNIFYING  FORCE  FOR  BUILDING  A  BETTER  TOMMORROW.

[EMPHASIS  IN  THE  ORIGINAL]

FOR  WHO?

Kumbaya?

“United  States  Seapower  is  a  force  for  good…as  it  joins  with  others  to  promote  security  and  prosperity  across  the  Globe.    [It]  will  be  a  unifying  force  for  building  a  better  tomorrow.”

An  Internaval  Era?Barrett  Tillman    -­‐    “Fear  and  loathing  in  the  Postnaval  Era”

R.B.  Watts,  “The  end  of  Sea  power”

“Is  Mahan  Dead?”      You-­‐know-­‐who

Force  Structure?

• Infrastructure  –  Basing

Center  of  Naval  Analysis  –  Tipping  Point

Hardware/Software   Captain  Jerry  Hendrix  -­‐  “Fords  not  Ferraris”

Tipping  Point   2-­‐Hub  option

1-­‐Hub  option

Shaping  option    (engagement)

Surge  Navy    (Interwar  model)/Fleet  in  Being

Shrinking  Status  Quo  Navy

Structure  (Hendrix) 16    (10/6)    composed  of    (Amphib/DDG/HSV/LCS)

6  surgeable  CSGs      (mostly  Pac,  still  10-­‐11  CVNs)

9  ESGs??

Subs-­‐status  quo  with  diesels/AIP  for  littorals

Questions???