Cryosphere hazards from the perspective of a State Agency

Cryosphere hazards from the perspective of a State Agency

Gabriel WolkenAlaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

3354 College Road, Fairbanks, Alaska 99709-3707Ph: 907.451.5018 Fax: 907.451.5050

email: [email protected]: www.dggs.alaska.gov

Alaska DGGS – Hazards

Programs• Climate Change Hazards (CCHP)• Geohazards Evaluation and Geologic Mapping for Coastal

Communities

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Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW Alaska

– Hazards assessment and evaluation

– Information management and dissemination• Promoting Public awareness

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•Glossary of Hazards•Hazard Types•Published Maps and Reports

Found at:http://www.dggs.dnr.state.ak.us/ Engineering geology>Guide to geologic hazards in Alaska

Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska

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State of Alaska Statute AS 41.08.020

Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

“...determine the … potential geologic hazards to buildings, roads, bridges, and other installations

and structures.”

What is a hazard?

Hazard: an exposure to a natural geophysical process that adversely affects people, property, or infrastructure

Risk: the likelihood of the hazard x its adverse consequence

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Natural Processes Natural Hazards

Photo: N. Kinsman

Alaska and the Cryosphere

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Alaska and the Cryosphere

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Flooded permafrost cellar near the Wulik River, NW AlaskaR. Reger

Thermokarst and bike path in Fairbanks, AK

A. Gal

Ice Bridge across the Chena River, Fairbanks, AK

P. CarterAvalanche on the Richardson Highway

Alaska and the Cryosphere

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•Flooding and erosion affects 184 out of 213, or 86 percent, of Alaska Native villages to some extent (US Government Accounting Office Report GAO-04-895T).•71 percent of Alaska coastal communities, or 80 out of 112, sit at or below 10 meters elevation.

Changes in Climate

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Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards

Changes in Coastal Processes

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• Decreased sea ice extent and duration– Reduced shore protection

– Increased fetch

– Storm surges

• Increased sea surface temperatures– Thermal abrasion

– Increased sediment load

• Accelerated thermokarst development– Increased lagoon and tidal prism

volumes

– Erosion

• Sea level rise– Inundation of low-lying areas

Photo: J MitchellPhoto: J Mitchell Kivalina

Changes in Alaska’s Northern Region

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• Coastal erosion may have doubled since 1955

• Inland expansion of channel networks and increased river bank erosion have been attributed to warming

• Lakes, ponds, and wetlands appear to be more dynamic, growing in some areas, shrinking in others, and changing distribution across lowland regions

• Permafrost degradation on the Arctic coastal plain suggests 10-30 percent of lowland and tundra landscapes may be affected by even modest warming

• Slope instability in headwater regions is increasing and leading to increased sedimentation rates

Photo: USGS

Changes in Alaska’s Glaciers

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• During the 20th and 21st centuries, most land-terminating glaciers in Alaska retreated extensively from their Little Ice Age maximum extent

• Since 1980, nearly all glaciers in Alaska have been in a state of retreat

• Contributing significantly to sea level rise

• Changes in water availability and sedimentation rates will impact:

– Water supplies

– Water quality

– Hydroelectric power generation potential

– Flood hazards

– Freshwater, estuarine and coastal habitats

Cryosphere Hazards and Alaska

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Photo: AK DCRA Shishmaref

Changes in climate can modify or intensify natural processes that lead to hazards

Natural hazards in the Cryosphere can cause casualties and severely damage property and infrastructure

Numerous threatened communities in Alaska are currently involved in mitigation or adaptation efforts in response to Cryosphere hazards

Informed community decision making requires accurate and up-to-date baseline geoscience data

Cryosphere Hazards Investigations

Establish a collection of baseline data

Hazards assessment and evaluation• Existence, changes, and potential

Promote public awareness of hazards and educate the public about specific hazards in their area

Provide critical information to decision-makers for use in community planning and risk management

builds capacity at all levels

helps communities mitigate or adapt to the impacts of hazards

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Knowledge Gaps and Issues of Concern

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It’s Alaska… • Baseline data are sparse, limed

duration, or nonexistent

• Access to data is challenging

• Hazard assessments are not performed regularly or routinely• Limited financial resources• Causal links are equivocal

• Lack of communication among scientists and few collaborations

• Lack of an efficient method for coordinating activities, prioritizing