Cross-Border Spillover: U.S. Gun Laws and Violence in Mexico ∗ Arindrajit Dube † Oeindrila Dube ‡ Omar Garc´ ıa-Ponce § This draft: August 2011 Abstract Do more guns cause more violence? We exploit a natural experiment induced by the 2004 expiration of the U.S. federal assault weapons ban to examine how the subsequent exogenous increase in gun supply affected violence in Mexico. The expiration relaxed the permissiveness of gun sales in border states such as Texas and Arizona, but not California, which retained a pre-existing state-level ban. Using data from mortality statistics and criminal prosecutions over 2002-2006, we show that homicides, gun-related homicides and gun crimes increased differentially in Mexican municipios located closer to Texas and Arizona ports of entry, versus California ports of entry. Our estimates suggest that the U.S. policy change caused at least 158 additional deaths each year in municipios near the border during the post-2004 period. Notably, gun seizures also increased differentially, and solely for the gun category that includes assault weapons. The results are robust to controls for drug trafficking, policing, unauthorized immigration, and economic conditions in U.S. border ports, as well as drug eradication, trends by income and education, and military and legal enforcement efforts in Mexican municipios. Our findings suggest that U.S. gun laws have exerted an unanticipated spillover on gun supply in Mexico, and this increase in gun supply has contributed to rising violence south of the border. JEL codes : D74, K14, K42 ∗ We are grateful to Joshua Angrist, Eli Berman, Michael Clemens, William Easterly, Macartan Humphreys, Brian Knight, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, Emily Owens, Debraj Ray, Alexandra Scacco, Jake Shapiro, David Stasavage, and Kevin Thom, as well as seminar participants at the Center for Global Development, NYU, Columbia CSDS, IAE Conflict Concentration, ESOP/WZB Political Economy of Conflict Conference, LACEA-crime, NBER Crime Working Goup, and Universidad Javeriana for providing useful comments. We also thank Diego Valle Jones for sharing data used in the analysis. † Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts-Amherst. [email protected]. ‡ Department of Politics and Economics, New York University. [email protected]. § Department of Politics, New York University. [email protected]. 1
Cross-Border Spillover: U.S. Gun Laws and Violence in Mexico
Jul 05, 2023
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