-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
1October 2010May 2010
Critical Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey
~ Spring 2015 ~
Full Service Market Research and Public Opinion Polling
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland, Maine 04101
www.criticalinsights.com
Residents Views on Politics, the Economy, & Issues Facing
the State of Maine
April 2015
April 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
2October 2010May 2010
Introduction
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
3
Background & Methodology
Each Spring and Fall, Critical Insights conducts the Critical
Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey, a comprehensive, statewide
public opinion survey of registered voters which covers a variety
of topics of interest to business, government, and the general
public.
Critical Insights on MaineTM has been documenting the attitudes,
perceptions, and preferences of Maines residents for over 19 years,
making it the longest running, consistently administered Tracking
Survey in the Northeast.
In addition to general interest items (the results of which are
released to the media as a public service) the survey also includes
a number of proprietary items included in the poll on behalf of
sponsoring entities, with results of those items released only to
those sponsors.
For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a
total of 601 telephone interviews (including cell phones) with
randomly selected voters across the state between March 24th and
March 29th, 2015.
With a sample of 601 interviews, results presented here have an
associated sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points at the 95%
confidence level.
All interviews were conducted with self-reported registered
voters; final data were statistically weighted according to
relevant demographics to reflect the voter base in Maine.
On average, the entire survey instrument including both general
interest items and all proprietary subscriber items was 17 minutes
in administrative length.
This document presents findings from general interest items
included in the current round of measurement, with comparisons made
as appropriate to results from past iterations of the Critical
Insights on MaineTM Tracking Survey.
April 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
4October 2010May 2010
Research Highlights
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
5October 2010May 2010
The Economy
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
6
Economic concerns persist as the most pressing issues among
Mainers, with the economy in general and unemployment worries,
respectively, topping the list of perceived issues facing
Maine.
Consistent with findings over the last two years, roughly half
of Maine voters are concerned with one of these economic-focused
issues.
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Spr'12
Fall'12
Spr'13
Fall'13
Spr'14
Fall'14
Spr'15
Economy 14 17 16 12 16 13 16 36 59 35 31 33 33 31 35 36 44 26 30
22 31 25
Unemployment 25 23 17 17 14 17 17 6 12 27 11 27 30 30 44 27 20
24 18 23 20 21
Taxes 25 21 21 20 34 24 18 10 8 7 10 9 8 5 4 4 3 7 5 7 4 8
Education 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 2 1 3 3 7 6 3 4 3 4 8 5 5 7 7
Health care 13 7 12 9 12 14 15 5 7 7 17 7 5 7 3 7 4 5 14 6 3
5
Welfare programs 1 1 1 3 1 2 2 8 4 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Per
cen
t
In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing Maine
today? *
* Top trended responses shown.
April 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
7
Though job loss remains the leading near-term financial concern
for Mainers, it has dropped 9 percentage points since last Fall to
be more consistent with prior measurements. Concerns about taxes
have nearly doubled since six months ago, while remaining responses
are highly fragmented, suggesting that a fairly diverse set of
financial worries are also weighing on the minds of Mainers.
Fall '10 Spr '11 Fall '11 Spr '12 Fall '12 Spr '13 Fall '13 Spr
'14 Fall '14 Spr '15
Job loss 32 17 25 20 18 16 16 14 27 18
Taxes 15 4 5 6 7 12 7 9 8 14
Health care 11 10 9 11 15 15 25 11 6 10
Gov't spending/Debt 5 5 8 6 7 9 6 8 6 10
Economy 12 7 13 9 10 7 8 9 10 9
Cost of living 20 19 18 21 19 16 15 12 6 8
Price of gas/utilities 12 32 16 21 22 11 9 8 4 8
Education 7 5 6 7 5 11 6 5 4 7
0
10
20
30
40
50
Per
cen
tAs you think about the next 6 months what economic or financial
situations concern you the MOST? *
* Top tracked responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
April 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
8
In results identical to one year ago, and a significant decline
from Fall 2014, one-quarter of Maine voters feel we will see
economic improvement over the coming year.
More than half of voters believe things will remain roughly the
same into 2016, an uptick from six months ago.
Fall'04
Spr'05
Fall'05
Spr'06
Fall'06
Spr'07
Fall'07
Spr'08
Fall'08
Spr'09
Fall'09
Spr'10
Fall'10
Spr'11
Fall'11
Spr'12
Fall'12
Spr'13
Fall'13
Spr'14
Fall'14
Spr'15
Better 30 14 12 17 18 16 12 15 35 46 43 43 35 34 30 41 41 34 30
25 33 25
About the same 41 33 33 35 44 46 35 26 26 27 34 33 38 36 41 37
27 40 45 51 50 55
Worse 25 51 53 44 31 37 49 55 33 24 20 19 20 24 25 17 10 22 22
21 14 19
0
20
40
60
80
100
Per
cen
t
Now think about the future of the economy. In the next 12
months, do you think the economy will be . . .
April 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
9October 2010May 2010
National Politics
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
10
In results consistent with the nation as a whole, and an
increase of seven percentage points compared to six months ago,
one-third of Mainers claim to have a positive sense of where the
country is headed. A majority still see things headed in the wrong
direction.
33 37 3225
45
3017 19
33 3041 38 34
28 30 26 2818
29 26 3033
59 47 5960
52
45 74 66
5955
50 53 59
5462
6469
42
6559
62 53
816
915
3
25
915
814
9 9 719
8 103
40
615
814
0
20
40
60
80
100
Per
cen
t
Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally
headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off
on the wrong track?
^^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, April 13-17,
2012
^^^ Source: AP-GfK poll, Oct. 19-23, 2012
# Source: CBS News/New York Times poll, April 24-28, 2013
## Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Sept. 5-8,
2013
***Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, March 11, 13-14,
2010
**Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Oct. 14-18,
2010
*Source: AP-GfK poll. May 5-9, 2011
^ Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Oct. 6-10, 2011
April 2015
Optimism about the countrys direction is most acute among higher
SES Mainers as well as
self-reported Democrats.
Among the Mainers who are pessimistic on the countrys
direction, feelings about heading in the wrong
direction are strongest among lower SES Mainers and
Republican voters.
### Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll, April 24-27, 2014
~ Source: CBS News Poll. Oct. 3-6, 2014
~~ Source: CBS News Poll. March 21-24, 2015
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
11
Support for both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden for the
Democratic nomination for President among Maine voters is merely
half of that reported for the nation as a whole.
April 2015
Im going to mention a number of people who might seek the
Democratic nomination for President in 2016. For each one, please
tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that
person for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. If you
dont know the name, please just say so.
86
46
13
47
21 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
* Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 2015
54
25
40
64
34
2 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
HILLARY CLINTON JOE BIDEN
Support for Clinton is predominant among women and more
highly-educated and higher-income Mainers.
Not surprisingly, views on all potential candidates tend to
split according to party lines.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
12
Elizabeth Warren garners one-quarter of Maine voter support for
the Democratic nomination for President, compared to fully half of
US residents. Large blocs of both Maine and US residents are
unfamiliar with either Warren or Bernie Sanders.
April 2015
Im going to mention a number of people who might seek the
Democratic nomination for President in 2016. For each one, please
tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that
person for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. If you
dont know the name, please just say so.
51
27
17
35
2931
3 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
* Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 2015
2114
21 35
5446
4 5
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
ELIZABETH WARREN BERNIE SANDERS
The likeliest supporters of Warren include the 65 and older age
band, higher SES Mainers, and the 1st Congressional District.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
13
There is a significant lack of awareness among both Maine and US
residents for either Jim Webb or Martin OMalley.
April 2015
Im going to mention a number of people who might seek the
Democratic nomination for President in 2016. For each one, please
tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that
person for the Democratic nomination for President in 2016. If you
dont know the name, please just say so.
156
24
24
5767
4 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
* Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, March 1-5, 2015
114
2021
6772
2 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Yes, could support No, could not support Don't know the name
Unsure
JIM WEBB MARTIN OMALLEY
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
14
Opinions are evenly split among Maine voters in terms of whether
they would be proud to have Hillary Clinton as President, while US
residents are a bit more enthusiastic.
April 2015
Thinking of the following characteristics and qualities, please
say whether you think it applies or doesnt apply to Hillary
Clinton:
Someone you would be proud to have as President.
57
45
42
48
17
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Applies Doesn't apply Unsure
* Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 13-15, 2015
Again, women and more highly-educated Mainers tend
to be more supportive of Clinton than others, as do
Democratic voters.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
15
Again, Maine voters are divided in their views on Hillary
Clinton using personal email while she served as Secretary of
State, though a sizable bloc do not offer an opinion.
April 2015
Do you think that Hillary Clinton did or did not do anything
wrong by using a personal email address and home-based server to
send and receive emails while she served as Secretary of State?
5140
47
44
2
16
0
20
40
60
80
100
US * Maine Residents
Per
cen
t
Did something wrong Did not do anything wrong Unsure
Men, lower SES Mainers, and GOP voters have a greater likelihood
of saying Clinton was wrong to use personal
email.
Conversely, subgroups more likely to feel she did nothing
wrong include women, higher SES Mainers, and self-reported
Democrats.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
16October 2010May 2010
Maine Politics
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
17
In results consistent with the Fall 2014 iteration of Critical
Insights on MaineTM, fully 4-in-10 Mainers currently have a
positive sense of where Maine is headed, though 47% do not (+5
percentage points since six months ago).
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in
the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the
wrong track?
34 30 3023 23
40 3742
3035
18
37 40
59
52 49 62
45
40 4240
44
47
34
4247
7
17 2115
31
19 21 1826
16
48
2113
0
20
40
60
80
100
Spring'09
Fall'09
Spring'10
Fall'10
Spring'11
Fall'11
Spring'12
Fall'12
Spring'13
Fall'13
Spring'14
Fall'14
Spring'15
Per
cen
t
Right Direction Wrong track Mixed/Don't know
April 2015
Views on the direction Maine is headed tend to split according
to
party lines and gender.
Indeed, 59% of Democrats claim the state is off on the wrong
track (vs.
30% of Republicans who feel similarly) and 53% of
Republicans
believe Maine is headed in the right direction (vs. 31% of
Democrats).
Additionally, 45% of men believe the state is headed in the
right
direction (vs. 36% of women), while 51% of women feel Maine is
off on the wrong track (vs. 41% of men).
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
18
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
April 2015
Right Direction (n=240)
Good Governor/Governor doing good job 31%
Gradual improvement in economy 30%
Balancing budget 16%
General optimism 11%Right direction
40%Wrong track
47%
Mixed/Don't know21%
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in
the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the
wrong track?
For the 40% of Maine voters who feel the state is headed in the
right direction, one-third attribute this belief to Gov. LePage and
his policies, and another one-third to economic improvement.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
19
* Top responses shown. Multiple responses accepted.
Why do you say that? *
April 2015
Wrong Track (n=280)
Bad Governor/Disapprove of Governor 36%
Partisan politics 16%
Bad economy 9%
No jobs/Job outlook bleak 7%
Program cuts/MaineCare cuts 4%
Over taxing/Over spending/Debt 4%
All in all, do you think things in Maine are generally headed in
the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the
wrong track?
Right direction40%
Wrong track47%
Mixed/Don't know21%
However, among the 47% of voters who feel Maine is off on the
wrong track, Gov. LePage and his policies play a contrasting role,
with 36% blaming the governor for this sense that Maine is on a
downward trajectory as a state.
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
20
Governor LePages job performance is currently at a 41% approval
rating, consistent with results observed previously.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor LePage is
handling his job as governor of Maine?
31
47
43
42
37
39
39
45
41
54
40
48
47
53
53
49
49
48
15
12
9
12
10
8
12
6
11
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Spr '11
Fall '11
Spring '12
Fall '12
Spring '13
Fall '13
Spring '14
Fall '14
Spring '15
Approve Disapprove Don't know/Refused
April 2015
Support for Gov. LePage continues to be strongest among men
(49%), residents of Northern
Maine (50%), and Republican voters (75%).
Disapproval tends to be most acute among women (55%),
Southern (54%) and DowneastMainers (53%), and self-reported
Democrats (75%).
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
21October 2010May 2010
Other Issues
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
22
More than half of Maine voters polled disagree with Governor
LePages proposal to pay higher reimbursements to communities
spending less on General Assistance, versus one-third who
agree.
April 2015
General Assistance, administered by towns and cities and partly
reimbursed by the State, provides short-term help for basic needs
such as food, shelter, and medicine for people who do not qualify
for other public assistance.
Do you agree or disagree with Governor LePages two-year state
budget proposal which would pay higher reimbursement rates to
cities and towns that spend less on General Assistance? Under this
proposal, Portland, Bangor, and Lewiston are projected to lose
funding.
Agree35%
Disagree54%
Don't know11%
There are significant differences for this issue
across party lines:
56% of GOP voters agree with LePages proposal (vs. only 18% of
Democratic voters
who feel similarly), and 73% of Democrats disagree (vs. only 29%
of Republicans).
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
23
Views on whether the City of Portland mismanaged General
Assistance funds are split, and 37% of Maine voters declined to
offer an opinion.
April 2015
Do you think that Portland has mismanaged the money from the
General Assistance program to help the Citys homeless
population?
Yes29%
No34%
Don't know37%
Residents of Maines 1st
Congressional District are significantly more likely than
those in CD 2 to state that Portland mismanaged the money
(35% vs. 22%, respectively).
Additionally, Republican voters have a greater tendency to
say
the City mismanaged funds (36%), while Democrats are more likely
to state they did not (48%).
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
24October 2010
24
May 2010
Sample Profile
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
25
Stated Voter Political Affiliation
April 2015
Democrat34%
Republican27%
Unenrolled/Other32%
DK/Ref.7%
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
26
Socio-Demographic Profile
April 2015
4753
12
29
1823
1720
24
35
18
0
20
40
60
80
100Pe
rcen
t
Gender Age
Education
-
172 Commercial Street, 2nd Floor Portland Maine
www.criticalinsights.com
27
Residential Profile
April 2015
60
1419
7
22
1418
36
0
20
40
60
80
100
None One Two Three ormore
< $35K $35K to