Critical Chain Project Management Solving the 3 Biggest Problems in Project Management Prepared for PMI Montgomery Chapter April Chapter dinner April 4, 2012 Hilbert Robinson, Senior Program Manager Mike Hannan, VP, Public Sector
Critical Chain Project Management Solving the 3 Biggest Problems in Project Management Prepared for PMI Montgomery Chapter April Chapter dinner April 4,
Dec 15, 2015
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Critical Chain Project ManagementCritical Chain Project ManagementSolving the 3 Biggest Problems in Project Management
Prepared for PMI Montgomery ChapterApril Chapter dinner
April 4, 2012
Hilbert Robinson, Senior Program ManagerMike Hannan, VP, Public Sector
Common Project Stakeholder ComplaintsCommon Project Stakeholder Complaints
2
Low
Org
aniz
atio
nal
prod
uctiv
ity
Long lead timesDe-scoped or
cancelled projects
Cost/budget overruns
Unhappy stakeholders
Poor due date reliability
Missed opportunities
Common Project Management ComplaintsCommon Project Management Complaints
3
Rework
Errors
Unpleasant Surprises
Scope creep & spec changes
Overloaded resources
Frequent “fire drills”
Unclear/competingPriorities
High stress
Frustration Low
morale
Burnout/
turnover Low
productivity
More reporting Meetings
Poor coordination
Severe and chronic
multitasking
Severe and chronic
multitasking
Productive effort
Unrecoverable losses
Cu
rren
t P
ote
nti
al
Recoverable losses
Other
High Rework
Many Open Issues
Poor Coordination
Severe Multitasking
Missing Inputs
PE
RF
OR
MA
NC
EOperational Gap (1)Operational Gap (1)
4
Other
High Rework
Many Open Issues
Poor Coordination
Severe Multitasking
Missing Inputs
Missing Inputs, Severe Multitasking, Poor Coordination, Many Open Issues,
High Rework, Other
MurphyMurphy
CurrentEffectiveCapacity
FUTURECURRENT
Future gains from reducing losses
IncreasedEffective Capacity
Murphy
IncreasedEffective Capacity
%
Old Rule #1Old Rule #1
5
Old RuleProblem
1 Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
Estimate vs. CommitmentEstimate vs. Commitment
6
If we treat task-level estimates as commitments, Task Owners will build in hidden schedule buffers, and then have little incentive to finish early.
If we treat task-level estimates as estimates, and pool schedule risk at the project level, we can allocate project-level schedule buffer to those tasks that need it, and only those tasks that need it.
10 Days 10 Days 10 Days 10 Days 10 Days
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days 10 Days
Set of task-level estimates = 50 days
Set of task-level commitments = 125 days
10 Days 10 Days 10 Days 10 Days 10 Days
2 Days Work : 1 Day Protection
Project Buffer
15 Days
New Rule #1New Rule #1
7
1
New Rule Advantage
Buffer Projects, Not Tasks
Highly reliableproject commitment.
Old RuleProblem
Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
Old Rule #2Old Rule #2
8
1
New Rule Advantage
Buffer Projects, Not Tasks
Highly reliableproject commitment.
Old RuleProblem
Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
2Assign staff to multiple
tasks, and start all projectsas early as possible.
Focusing staff on 1 taskat a time results in low resource utilization, andholds up other projects.
9
The Overcommitted / Overloaded OrganizationThe Overcommitted / Overloaded Organization
Simple Example:
Three person team: A – DesignerB – BuilderC – Tester
The sooner we start ….
Three hot projects
Seven weeks each
10
The Illusion of ProgressThe Illusion of Progress
Delay Delay Delay
High resource utilization
Delay
Reasons to MultitaskReasons to Multitask
11
Be responsive to demands/needs of others Appease customers, stakeholders, PM, boss, etc. Avoid idle time while waiting for input Be efficient Be busy Impress others with how many projects you can juggle …and many others.
The Hidden Cost of MultitaskingThe Hidden Cost of Multitasking
Loss of focus / more mistakes / rework More open / unresolved issues / expediting Disguises other process failures Destroys the smooth flow of work Increases need for (burden of) tracking and reporting Wastes capacity [need for more overtime] Longer project cycle time/lead time Increases per unit cost Fewer completions / higher burnout / lower morale Dilutes managements attention and focus – Loss of control
12
Some negative effects of multi-tasking includes:
Simultaneous vs. Staggered ProjectsSimultaneous vs. Staggered Projects
P4
13
8
6
4
Simultaneous Projects
Staggered Projects
New Rule #2New Rule #2
14
1
New Rule Advantage
Buffer Projects, Not Tasks
Highly reliableproject commitment.
Old RuleProblem
Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
2Assign staff to multiple
tasks, and start all projectsas early as possible.
Focusing staff on 1 taskat a time results in low resource utilization, andholds up other projects.
Stagger ProjectsMaximize project completion rate
and resource utilization.
Old Rule #3Old Rule #3
15
1
New Rule Advantage
Buffer Projects, Not Tasks
Highly reliableproject commitment.
Old RuleProblem
Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
2Assign staff to multiple
tasks, and start all projectsas early as possible.
Focusing staff on 1 taskat a time results in low resource utilization, andholds up other projects.
Stagger ProjectsMaximize project completion rate
and resource utilization.
3Each PM lobbies the PMO
for critical resources.
Priorities across projectsshift, resulting in persistent conflicts over resources.
To Which Project Should I Assign the Critical Staff Resource?To Which Project Should I Assign the Critical Staff Resource?
16
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days25 Days 25 Days
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days25 Days 25 Days 25 Days
Project A
Project B
Today
Two identical tasks, only one person with the required skill
Urgent Field Problem
versus a New Design
Engineering Congress
Regulators
Irate Customer
Project Manager
Golf Partner
Executive Sponsor
Respond to Whomever Shouts the Loudest?Respond to Whomever Shouts the Loudest?
17
To Which Project Should I Assign the Critical Staff Resource?To Which Project Should I Assign the Critical Staff Resource?
18
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days25 Days 25 Days
15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days 15 Days10 Days25 Days 25 Days 25 Days
Project A
Project B
Today
Two identical tasks, only one person with the required skill
Project Buffer
Project Buffer
To Project B, because it is further from completion than Project A, and because it has less project
buffer remaining.
19
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Series1; 60%
40%
Percent Project Buffer Consumed Versus Chain Completed
% of Chain Completed
% P
roje
ct
Bu
ffe
r C
on
su
me
d
D
C
BPI Based Prioritization MetricBPI Based Prioritization Metric
All projects and tasks are prioritized according to
their current BPI
Single Project Buffer Trend ChartSingle Project Buffer Trend Chart
20
Watch
Plan
Recover
21
Portfolio Dashboard Real Time Organization-wide Prioritization
Portfolio Dashboard Real Time Organization-wide Prioritization
All decisions are evaluated according to their predicted
impact on BPI
Watch
Plan
Recover
New Rule #3New Rule #3
22
1
New Rule Advantage
Buffer Projects, Not Tasks
Highly reliableproject commitment.
Old RuleProblem
Plan each task as a highly reliable commitment.
Task variability preventsreliable project commitments.
2Assign staff to multiple
tasks, and start all projectsas early as possible.
Focusing staff on 1 taskat a time results in low resource utilization, andholds up other projects.
Stagger ProjectsMaximize project completion rate
and resource utilization.
3Each PM lobbies the PMO
for critical resources.
Priorities across projectsshift, resulting in persistent conflicts over resources.
Protect ProjectBuffers ThatNeed It Most
Clarity, commonly agreedpriorities, stronger
cooperation among PMs
Cu
rren
t P
ote
nti
al
Productive effort
Fu
ture
Po
ten
tial
Unrecoverable losses
Recoverable losses
Other
High Rework
Many Open Issues
Poor Coordination
Severe Multitasking
Missing Inputs
The Whole is Greater…The Whole is Greater…
23
Other
High Rework
Many Open Issues
Poor Coordination
Severe Multitasking
Missing Inputs
Missing Inputs, Severe Multitasking, Poor Coordination, Many Open Issues,
High Rework, Other
Murphy
More Effective Teamwork, Reduced Learning Curve, etc.
Murphy
Gains from reducing losses
PE
RF
OR
MA
NC
E
FUTURECURRENT
Expected Stakeholder BenefitsExpected Stakeholder Benefits
24
Long lead timesDe-scoped or
cancelled projects
Cost/budget overruns
Unhappy stakeholders
Poor due date reliability
Missed opportunities
Shorter lead times
More stable scope fewer
cancelled projects
Effective cost/budget
controls
Happier / satisfied
stakeholders
Fewer missed opportunities
Highly reliable due dates
Much higher organizational
productivityLow
Org
aniz
atio
nal
Produ
ctiv
ity
Strong Foundation for Growth
Documented Benefits of Critical ChainDocumented Benefits of Critical Chain
25
Sample ResultsSample Results
18 months vs. 60 months,
IT department first then drug development – CEO: “100% due date performance”
Warner Robbins – Iraq War – Expanded C-5 air lift capacity by 8 million ton-miles
Iraq War – One extra submarine in steaming days
Satellite Division – Turned around the business
Engine Division – partially funded Northwest acquisition
Software delivered 5 months early, 33% cost reduction
26
Sometimes Speed and Reliability Are Mission Critical.
Sometimes Speed and Reliability Are Mission Critical.
What if We’re Not an Advanced Project Management Organization?What if We’re Not an Advanced Project Management Organization?
27
CCPM is simple in concept—it turns common sense into common practice.
Introducing CCPM will help any project right away, regardless of how sophisticated and disciplined your project-management practices are (or aren’t).
Some “high-discipline” PM organizations take longer to realize CCPM benefits, because they have a harder time letting go of the “Old Rules.”
Many “low-discipline” PM organizations have an easier time adopting CCPM, because the “Old Rules” are not as deeply embedded.
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