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HIGHLIGHTS FROM OUR ANNUAL REPORT 2013/2014
REVIEW OF 2013PLANS FOR 2014
Africa Asia Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
Middle East & North Africa
From the Co-Chairs From the President Operations around the
World
Advocacy & Communications
What Others Say Funding in 2013 Global Briefing
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Co-ChairsFrom the
Mark Malloch-Brown is a former UN Deputy Secretary-
General and Administrator of the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP).
Thomas R. Pickering is a former U.S. Under Secretary of State
for Political Affairs and Ambassador to the UN, India, Russia,
Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria and Jordan.
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A lot happened in 2013, from political break throughs in Kosovo,
Colombia and Iran to massacres in Syria and state breakdowns in
South Sudan and Central African Republic. There was no obvious
pattern to any of this. The rise of emerging markets
ap peared less commanding than it once had. Coordination among
major powers was sometimes impressive as in Kosovo and on Iran, or
with the French-led effort in Mali but continued to seem ad
hoc.
With the United States cautious of engagement and China forceful
in its own region but reticent of engagement beyond, the only two
powers anxious to make themselves felt outside their own backyards
were Russia and France.
This left a volatile global political environ ment lacking clear
leadership. Where there are solutions they are increasingly local
and regional, not driven from the traditional capitals. That poses
new challenges and opportunities for International Crisis Group.
Its impressive record of anticipating conflicts made it
indispensable once again for government officials and the many
others who needed to make quick, informed decisions in this
fast-moving world. But the decision-makers it needs to reach are
now less than ever a club of Western policymakers.
Rather, each crisis has its own circle of policy brokers who
have to be reached. On Syria, to take one pressing instance,
reaching the U.S. and Russia remains important but it is as
important to reach officials in Tehran, Riyadh, Doha and
Ankara.
For Crisis Group, 2013 was also a passage of sorts as field
operations were folded up in the Balkans, where Crisis Group had
its beginnings almost two decades ago. At the same time our pursuit
of new flash points that might be leading indicators of violent
conflict entailed expanding our work across the Sahel, in Mexico
and in the Caucasus.
Our distinctive approach, combining field-based analysis,
relevant and pointed policy recommendations and public and private
advocacy, relies on our remarkable staff, whose painstaking work
protects and en hances Crisis Groups most precious asset: an
unmatched reputation for objectivity. The steady increase in Crisis
Groups audience throughout 2013 shows that interest in our work is
only growing.
We want to extend a very special thanks to our outgoing
President and CEO, Louise Arbour, who has guided Crisis Group
through the past five years with a steady hand together with real
passion for our mission. Her piercing intelligence, her humour, her
commitment, her deep experience and wise counsel have been
invaluable as Crisis Group has fought to prevent or resolve
conflict. We have been privileged to work with her and hope she
will continue her association with Crisis Group as it enters a new
era.
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We also want to thank our supporters: individuals, corporations,
foundations and governments. This past year was another one of
belt-tightening at institutions and official agencies, and Crisis
Groups budget did not escape the general austerity. We had to make
some difficult choices. Helped by our supporters generosity we have
emerged stronger. The need for Crisis Groups work is greater than
ever. We hope you will join us in helping meet that need.
Washington DC and London, 1 February 2014 Lord Mark
Malloch-Brown Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering
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PresidentFrom the
Louise Arbour served as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
from 2004 to 2008 and Chief Prosecutor for International Criminal
Tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda from 1996 to 1999.
She has been President and CEO of Crisis Group since July 2009.
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This past year confounded many hopes. The Arab uprisings
struggled onward, but Egyp tians and Libyans experienced
disappointments as deep as their expectations had once been high.
New administrations in China and Japan made a tense
region tenser as they managed nationalist upsurges. A decade of
profound international effort in Afghanistan seemed to be drawing
to a close more with a sense of dissatisfaction than of
triumph.
In the international community, hopes went unmet as democratic
governance halted its long post-Cold War trend of upward growth.
The street sought to replace the ballot as the source of democratic
legitimacy. Authoritarianism reasserted itself. So did nationalism
in Europe and radicalisation elsewhere. The International Criminal
Court faced strong, increasingly organised resistance in Africa as
the court entered its second decade. The UN Security Councils
failure to act on Syria continued to take a heavy toll, carrying
with it the high expec tations once generated by the doctrine of
the responsibility to protect.
Is the system fatally broken? No. But in 2013 it became obvious
that doctrines and institutions alike require serious
rethinking.
In this questioning year Crisis Group reaffirmed its core
mission: to provide on-the-ground analysis and detailed policy
prescriptions to prevent or resolve violent conflicts. As
geopolitical generalisations weakened, we stuck to specifics.
On 2 January 2013 we published an alert about the advance of
Seleka forces in Central African Republic. We reported on this
forgotten conflict throughout the year, and when it reached the
point where it was no longer forgotten our fieldwork informed the
many actors who rushed to find solutions.
Our commitment to rigorous research and advocacy on reform in
Myanmar, once so controversial, continued to bear fruit and when
reform faltered our principled engagement included well-researched,
firm criticism.
In Colombia, years of Crisis Group work on the long conflict
between the government and FARC guerrillas culminated in detailed
recommendations to aid peace negotiations. There again, we strove
to offer concrete ways to reach both justice and peace with out
sacrificing one to the other.
Patient, detailed work on the sanctions regime imposed on Iran
proved, when the tide turned, invaluable in helping identify the
path toward reducing tensions.
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We were also able to expand our horizons, addressing new,
emerging or potential crisis situations, whether in Niger or
Burkina Faso as part of our increasing focus on the Sahel or in
Mexico, where our study of vigilantism in Michoacn state foretold a
tale now very much in the public eye.
That we have this flexibility is very much down to the generous
support of our donors. These are challenging times and Crisis Group
has not escaped the buffeting. But your commitment to our work, and
belief in our mandate, has helped ensure that we have been able to
continue covering, on every continent, not just conflicts in the
headlines but also those wrongly ignored, often at great cost.
In this past year, our model of fieldwork on the worlds violent
conflicts undertaken under difficult conditions and usually with no
obvious prospect of immediate success proved itself again. As I
reach the end of my own tenure as President and CEO of Crisis
Group, it is my privilege to reaffirm that mission and salute the
remarkable people around the world who have made it their own.
Brussels, 1 February 2014 Louise Arbour, President and CEO
Crisis Group North Africa Project Director Issandr El Amrani
(far right) meets with Libyan militia members in Sidra, Libya.
CRISIS GROUP/Claudia Gazzini.
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OperationsAround
the World
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Countries covered by field analysts(coverage planned for
2014)
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan (including
Nagorno-Karabakh), Bangladesh, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burkina
Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, China/Japan,
Colombia, Cte dIvoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq,
Israel/Palestine, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon,
Libya, Madagascar, Mali, Mexico, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria,
North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia (North Caucasus),
Somalia, South Korea, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria,
Tajikistan, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda,
Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
In addition to the above countries, CrisisWatch monitoring
covers:Albania, Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Bolivia, Chad, China
(internal), Djibouti, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Gabon,
Gambia, Ghana, Haiti, Honduras, Kosovo, Kuwait, Lesotho, Liberia,
Maldives, Malawi, Malaysia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco,
Mozambique, Oman, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Republic of Congo,
Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, South Africa,
Spain (Basque Country), Swaziland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Timor-Leste,
Togo, Ukraine, United Kingdom (Northern Ireland), Western Sahara,
Zambia.
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Operations around the World
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AfricaFRAUGHT
ELECTIONS AND REGIONAL
DIPLOMACY
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Religious antagonism, including jihadi terrorism, exacerbated
some conflicts in Africa. Even the political coup in Central
African Republic ended with Christian and Muslim militias
confronting each other. There was much anticipation of election
violence but
the year included unexpectedly peaceful polls in Mali and Kenya,
and an expectedly questionable one in Zimbabwe at the end of July
(our report Election Scenarios came out in May, Mugabes Last Stand
in July). Regional institutions like the Economic Community of
Central African States found themselves in prominent roles, as did
the African Union.
In Mali the year might be said to have begun with Frances
Operation Serval, which turned back a military offensive by
somewhat allied jihadi and Tuareg forces and helped recapture Malis
northern cities for the government in Bamako. That was perhaps the
easy part: political and social reconstruction moved forward only
tentatively (considered in our April and June reports), and violent
jihadis are regrouping in Malis hinterland and in other countries
in the region. Crisis Groups advocacy included meetings by
President Arbour with government leaders in Bamako and numerous
articles and interviews, notably in Le Figaro.
The Mali effort was handled from our Dakar office, which also
produced strong policy reports on Guinea (A Way Out of the Election
Quagmire, February) and Niger (our first).
The program gave Sudan strong emphasis with two instalments in a
report series on Sudans Spreading Conflict (in February and June).
South Sudans sudden late-year descent into civil conflict added a
new, urgent dimension to the troubled region; we had someone in
place in Juba as events unfolded, allowing us to issue an
authoritative statement in late December suggesting some ways out
of the worsening conflict as SPLA factions attacked each other in
Juba, South Sudans capital, and elsewhere in the worlds newest
state.
Somalias chronic instability, and its spill over, featured in
our August report on the Ogaden and a December consideration of the
Puntland elections (which occurred the next month). Somalia also
featured in more topical writing during and after the Westgate Mall
attack in Nairobi, which sadly confirmed the blowback warnings in
our 2012 reports on Kenyas military intervention in Somalia and the
radicalisation of Kenyan Somalis.
From our Nairobi hub we analysed Kenyas 2013 Elections in
January, with a follow-up report in May. The International Criminal
Courts indictment of the eventual winners, now-President Uhuru
Kenyatta and Vice President William Ruto, greatly coloured those
elections and their aftermath. The
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future promotion of international criminal justice also
preoccupied President Arbour in her advocacy work at Octobers
Global Briefing in Brussels and her address to Security Council
members at Greentree, NY, in November.
African issues continued to dominate the Security Councils
agenda. The Democratic Republic of Congo was the topic of two
debates we held with Council members (in March and April) and the
innovative UN intervention brigade in DRC was considered in a
policy letter from President Arbour to Great Lakes Special Envoy
Mary Robinson.
The Central African Republic was an intense preoccupation from
our 2 January alert on the swift advance of Seleka forces, through
the post-coup Priorities of the Transition (June) to Better Late
Than Never (December), with regular fieldwork throughout the year.
Private advocacy in New York and Washington included briefing the
White House and holding numerous meetings at the ambassadorial
level and above, while public advocacy featured timely blog posts
and articles as well as an open letter to the Security Council.
(See Advocacy and Communications.)
Key issues in 2014We will be updating our earlier work on
insecurity in the Gulf of Guinea, and looking at the political
situation in Cameroon as it considers how to handle a transition
from the 31 years of rule by Paul Biya. The crisis in the Central
African Republic will continue to command attention as regional and
international bodies attempt to repair the collapsed state. The
evolution of the UN intervention brigade in the Democratic Republic
of Congo with its unusually robust military mandate will be the
focus of a special report, along with continuation of our series on
local conflicts in Congo, focusing this year on the Kivus.
In West Africa, potentially dangerous and divisive elections
will occur in countries that are vital for the regions peace and
security: Nigeria, Cte dIvoire, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau and
Guinea. Nigeria will be a main emphasis of our work, beginning with
a report on Boko Haram and continuing with a consideration of
politics, and likely political violence, as Nigerians prepare for
elections in 2015. Cte dIvoire remains fragile despite strong
economic growth.
We have focused first on the troubled western region and will
then look at the north as we examine potential sources of
instability and how to rebuild the state in this pre-election year.
We will be keeping an eye on Burkina Faso as electoral politics
gain momentum in advance of 2015 elections and closely monitoring
the March general elections in Guinea-Bissau, which were
rescheduled after the 2012 coup and may prove problematic.
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Guinea itself will also hold presidential elections in 2015; we
will look at the dangers of failing to deal with the fallout there
from the 2013 legislative elections. We begin 2014 with a report on
Mali, looking at how to take advantage of the opportunities created
by a popular new president and a focused international community.
Having seen how fighters from outside Mali helped destabilise it,
we will examine the spillover from southern Libya into Niger and
Chad.
Along with a case study on the foreign policy of South Africa,
we will look at how the Southern African Development Community has
done as a shaper and observer of electoral processes in Zimbabwe,
Swaziland, Madagascar and Malawi.
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AsiaSOME NATIONAL CONFLICTS COOL REGIONAL DYNAMICS CHANGE
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Increased nationalist posturing in China and Japan put North
East Asia on edge, anti-Muslim violence and nationalism gained
traction in Myanmar and Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan entered yet
another critical phase a year before the international drawdown.
Crisis Group
honoured Myanmars President Thein Sein at our annual gala for
setting the country on a path towards greater openness, while
continuing to report on its internal conflicts (June) and the
challenges of political transition (Not a Rubber Stamp: Myanmars
Legislature in a Time of Transition, December). An important work
on anti-Muslim violence in Myanmar, The Dark Side of Transition,
came out in October.
Crisis Group produced a final paper on Timor-Leste but continued
to report on Indonesia through May, releasing Stability at What
Cost? and Tensions over Acehs Flag. In another situation of reduced
conflict, we investigated the intricate process of demo bilisation
in the Philippines (Dismantling Rebel Groups, June).
Deepening China-Japan tensions were a source of great concern
throughout the year. Our East China Sea report (Dangerous Waters,
April) immediately became a standard reference. The Beijing and
Seoul offices collaborated on Fire on the City Gate: Why China
Keeps North Korea Close in December, while the North East Asia
project maintained a steady output of writing and advocacy on North
Korean developments.
The easing of conflict in Nepal led to the closing of our office
there. We continued our work in Thailand, where the latent
national-level political conflict intensified and a dialogue
process between the government and Malay-Muslim insurgents in the
south foundered amid unabated violence.
Persistent insecurity and violence intensified in Afghanistan,
with the Taliban spurning Kabul and the international communitys
efforts to reach a negotiated settlement. Our work included
Afghanistans Parties in Transition (June). The fate of women in the
near future was the preoccupation of Women and Conflict in
Afghanistan (October).
Pakistan remained relatively stable in 2013. Our focus was on
institutions (eg, legal systems, in Januarys Countering Militancy
in PATA, and in a paper on Pakistans parlia ment in September). We
also considered the growing controversy over drones (May).
Sri Lanka under the Rajapaksa family continued to make feints at
reform while solidifying its increasingly authoritarian regime. We
chronicled the results, including a violent campaign by nationalist
Buddhist groups against the Muslim minority, and pointed the way
toward sounder policies in Sri Lankas Authoritarian Turn (February)
and Sri Lankas Potemkin Peace (November).
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Key issues in 2014 We will focus closely on the dynamic between
China and Japan in the East China Sea and examine how Beijing and
its ASEAN neighbours in the South China Sea are trying to move
beyond maritime disputes to jointly developing maritime resources.
The Seoul office will examine critical factors for political
stability on the Peninsula, including the risk of intelligence
failure or politicisation of intelligence gathering and analysis in
South Korea, and the prospects for change in North Korea.
We will continue to identify risks to resolution of ethnic
conflicts in Myanmar as the parties attempt to move beyond armed
conflict for the first time in 60 years and will investigate the
changing role of Myanmars powerful military in the politics and
economy of the country. We will also focus on violence against the
minority Rohingya community in Rakhine State as well as other
Myanmar Muslims, and the rise of radicalised Buddhist nationalism.
In Thailand we will focus on the national-level conflict that has
been building since 2006 between, on one hand, the Pheu Thai Party
and the Red Shirt movement, and on the other opponents of
controversial former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, primarily
in the traditional establishment. We will also continue to
investigate the decade-old insurgency in the Malay-Muslim-majority
southernmost provinces.
The deeply flawed election process of January 2014 in Bangladesh
will lead to an examination of how better to strengthen democracy.
We will also focus on new and apparently well-organised but poorly
analysed Islamist groups such as Hefajat-e-Islam.
With presidential elections due and the exit of international
forces in Afghanistan, we will examine the strategies of the
insurgency in the lead-up to and after international withdrawal. We
will also assess the ability of the Afghan security forces,
particularly the national police and local police, to hold
insurgents at bay.
In Pakistan, we begin by investigating the drivers of militancy
in the four provincial capitals and identify mechanisms for
restoring order. We will also assess counter-terrorism strategies,
the impact of violent conflict on women a primary target of
Islamist radicals and the capacity of the education system to
reduce extremist influence. Because Pakistan will play a crucial
role in shaping post-transition Afghanistan, we will examine
Islamabads Afghan policies.
An increasingly violent militant Buddhist campaign, apparently
tacitly backed by the government, against Sri Lankas Muslims could
open a dangerous new line of communal conflict. We will examine
this and how Sri Lankas ethnic conflict continues around the world
through immigration and asylum issues, terrorism, war-crimes cases,
and the far-flung initiatives of the Tamil diaspora and the
government itself.
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Europe & Central AsiaCHALLENGES TO CENTRAL POWER
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The year brought substantial progress on the conflict between
Turkey and the PKK. This has been one of the great in trac tables,
and we analysed both how it had finally moved and how it might
progress yet further in Crying Wolf (October). Another great
intrac-
table, Cyprus, shifted far less, although we found some hope for
change, expressed in blog posts and articles, after natural gas
finds in the islands waters. The Istanbul office also focused on
the problems of Syrian war refugees, both in a report (in April)
and in public and private advocacy. Turkeys own internal struggles
mid-year led to both the most popular blog writing in Crisis Groups
history and public advocacy on The Charlie Rose Show, among other
major outlets.
A reorganisation led, after nearly two decades, to the closure
of the Balkans project at the end of a year that began with major
reports on northern Kosovo and on Bosnias Dangerous Tango: Islam
and Nationalism (both February). At last, violent conflict in the
region has decisively, and we hope permanently, ebbed.
This streamlining also led to Central Asia coming under the
Europe program mid-year. Chinas Central Asia Problem (February) was
jointly produced by the Beijing and Bishkek offices, while the
latter undertook a report on Kazakhstan (September) and the need
for planning for a post-Nazarbayev era.
We sounded a warning on Armenia/Azerbaijan in September and
brought out the third in our series of reports on the North
Caucasus (this time on governance, elections and the rule of law).
Public advocacy included a new Eurasia blog and analysts articles
in the New York Times and elsewhere. The Europe program tightened
its relationship with European Union advocacy in a year when the
External Action Service seemed to be coming into its own with
successes on Kosovo and Iran, and a heightened profile during
Egypts mid-year crisis. President Arbour also stressed European
ties, notably in visits to Paris, Berlin and Moscow.
Key issues in 2014We begin the year with our fourth report in a
series on North Caucasus and a consideration of tourist development
in the region on the occasion of the Sochi Olympics. In the South
Caucasus we will focus on the future of the OSCEs Minsk Process the
diplomatic framework, since 1995, for resolving confrontation
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Women preparing for a demonstration in Istanbul, spring 2013.
CRISIS GROUP/Hugh Pope.
The NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan will alter the strategic
picture in Central Asia. We will anticipate likely scenarios for
Russian and Chinese policy and the effects for Central Asian
countries of an altered geopolitical dispensation. Rising Islamism
will inform our research on radical women in Dagestan and on how
social services in Kyrgyzstan have become part of a religious
agenda.
Our final report on Bosnia-Herzegovina will focus on underlying
political patterns and long-term policy prescriptions.
We will also take a look at the long-term failure of talks on a
bi-communal federation for Cyprus and consider how a two-state
alternative might be implemented. Turkey entered the new year in
what looked set to be a long-lasting domestic political storm, but
the main threats of possible conflict will remain the unfinished
business from last year: the still inconclusive peace process with
Turkeys insurgent PKK and a stumbling reform process for Turkish
Kurds, as well as worries about overspill from Syrias civil war
across the porous southern Turkish border and the struggle to cope
with some one million Syrian refugees.
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Latin America
& the Caribbean
PROMOTING RULE OF LAW AND POLITICAL SOLUTIONS
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A preference for political over military solutions to a chronic
conflict led to significant progress towards peace in Colombia,
while accountability for an old political wound remained elusive in
Guatemala. In both cases, we have gained influence and impact
through regular contact with all parties. Our inaugural project
in Mexico focused first on violence related to organised crime and
the evolution of the governments approach to the problem (March),
then looked at vigilantism as a mode of citizen response to
lawlessness (May). These reports laid the basis for our future
exploration of conflicts involving the state and organised
crime.
Crisis Groups Haiti project closed, after eight years and 22
reports, with a renewed call for a national consensus (February).
Work in Venezuela continued as the country struggled to find its
footing after the death of President Hugo Chvez. Our report in May
outlined the deep political divide, while public advocacy continued
with a Crisis Alert (March) and articles aimed at showing the way
to bridge the considerable gap between governing party and
opposition.
The risks of a militarised response to social protest as part of
the complex interplay of indigenous rights and exploitation of
natural resources was analysed in a report after a massacre in a
remote town in Guatemala in February, while the epochal trial of
former Guatemalan President Efrain Ros Montt was covered in a
September report as well as public commentary and diplomatic work,
including a visit by President Arbour in September.
From its base in Bogot, the program gave an all-out push on
Colombias peace process with the FARC the best chance for resolving
a decades-long conflict. President Arbour helped launch the report
Transitional Justice and Colombias Peace Talks in August with a
speech at the Universidad Externado de Colombia and met privately
with the main force behind the peace process (President Juan Manuel
Santos), the main force against it (former President lvaro Uribe),
Peace Commissioner Sergio Jara millo and former President Csar
Gaviria.
Crisis Group Latin America and Caribbean Program Director Javier
Ciurlizza interviewed by CNNs Carmen Aristegui. CNN EN ESPAOL
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Key issues in 2014With a new regional office in Mexico City, we
will be better positioned to examine how different law enforcement
strategies in Mexico have brought radically different consequences
in the cases of Ciudad Jurez (potentially a success story) and
Michoacn (a potential failure). We will also review police reform
in Mexico, including options in connection with police
certification (vetting), respect for human rights and
accountability, criminal investigations and linkages with judicial
reform, and the relationship between policing and vigilantism.
We will continue our intense engagement in the peace process in
Colombia, including with a report early in the year on developing
talks with the leftist ELN similar to those now ongoing with the
FARC. We will also explore post-conflict options for disarmament
and demobilisation of FARC and ELN, and how to prevent Colombia
from following the pattern elsewhere of an increase in organised
crime.
After presidential and local elections, we will map out the new
political landscape in Venezuela as it faces high crime and a
possible meltdown of its economy. The border of Guatemala and
Honduras is one of the deadliest places in the world, and we will
investigate the triggers of conflict and provide recommendations
for urgent action to alleviate the immense humanitarian
consequences.
Finally, we will intensify engagement with regional actors the
Inter-American Commission on Human Rights of the OAS, UNASUR, and
others (eg, SICA) to discuss policy options for cooperation in
security and justice among these increasingly important political
actors.
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The Middle East & North Africa
ONE BREAKTHROUGH MANY STALEMATES
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The biggest, and possibly least expected, positive story in the
region was Iran: the election of President Rouhani (detailed in our
August report) and the subsequent overtures to the U.S. A key
question in this opening was how to handle sanctions on
Iran, which was the subject of our influential February report
Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions; the reports
careful guidance became even more valuable as Iran and the major
Western powers looked for ways to ease their disagreements and
develop trust.
But the biggest, and unfortunately most expected, negative story
remained Syria, where the civil war recorded another year of
bloodshed and destruction.
Our eighth report on Syria since the uprising began was on
Syrias Kurds: A Struggle Within a Struggle, followed by reports on
spillover risks for Turkey (April, under Crisis Groups Europe
program) and Lebanon (May). The landmark report Syrias
Metastasising Conflicts came out in June. The use of chemical
weapons on 21 August in a Damascus suburb seemed to (briefly)
change the equation, with U.S. President Barack Obama threatening
military action; the ensuing Russian/U.S. initiative to destroy
Syrias chemical weapons averted this outcome. (Our statement came
out amid these events, on 2 September, and quickly became the
most-read document in Crisis Groups history.) In agreeing to this
initiative, the Syrian regime sought to move from pariah to
negotiating partner, a transition that the oppositions increasingly
Islamist hue appeared to facilitate. Talks among Syrians and others
took place in January 2014; our report on the opposition (October)
suggested how difficult those likely would be.
In Egypt, the process that began with the January 2011 uprising
experienced yet another perilous detour with the removal of
President Mohammed Morsi by the military. After Morsis fall in July
we issued a statement followed by a full report in August.
The story of the Arab worlds transitions is being written
elsewhere as well, whether in Tunisia (Violence and the Salafi
Challenge appeared in February, and a report on the countrys
borders, subtitled Jihadism and Contraband, in November), Libya
(Aprils Trial by Error, on the justice system), or Yemen (where we
took a close look at its military, in April, and reported on Yemens
Southern Question in September).
Meanwhile, Iraq seemed to be heading into a dangerous spiral of
renewed sectarian conflict, as detailed in August in Make or Break:
Iraqs Sunnis and the State.
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Despite renewed energy from the U.S., serious obstacles remained
on the road toward an Israeli/Palestinian agreement. Our goal has
been to point to some of the more structural stumbling blocks,
whether in Buying Time: Money, Guns and Politics in the West Bank
(May) or Novembers Leap of Faith: Israels National Religious and
the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, which stressed the need to engage
Israels national-religious community as part of a broader
rethinking of the peace process.
Key issues in 2014We will continue to press for major
adjustments in the peace process for Israel and Palestine, arguing
that it needs to include more groups and address some of the less
tangible aspirations of both Israelis and Palestinians.
In Egypt, we will consider what is next for the Muslim
Brotherhood. The political actors in Syria, and their foreign
backers, have become trapped in short-term, tactical thinking. We
will attempt to take a longer view mid-year, proposing a political
horizon that might help participants in the conflict find routes
out of the current stalemate. We will also look at the effects
(particularly in Lebanon) of Hizbollahs involvement in Syria, and
at the consolidation of Syrian Kurdish power under the PYD
(Democratic Union Party) and the implications for Syria and its
neighbours.
Increased violence in Iraq will shape our approach to work on
the evolving Shiite political landscape and the results of
parliamentary elections. The P5+1 negotiations with Iran over its
nuclear program will be the focus of policy briefings on how to
overcome the many challenges to a final agreement. In Yemen we will
look particularly at the North and the entrenched Huthi conflict,
while also examining the state of the countrys fitful transition
and the complex range of its Islamist forces and movements.
Our work in Libya will focus on how to hold the country
together, whether through federalism or centralisation, and examine
the ambitions of radical Islamists in the east. Islamism will also
feature prominently in our work on Tunisia, where we will look at
the identity crisis of the An-Nahda party.
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CommunicationsAdvocacy &
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The year was characterised by increased integration of content
with public and private advocacy. This was achieved through greater
coordination across the organisation, technological improvements,
and better targeting (in terms of topic choice and marketing).
By
any measure, our audiences grew substantially. Website visits
increased, blog readership trebled, and viewership of our YouTube
channel increased by a third. With some technical innovation at the
end of the year an interactive map CrisisWatch readership trebled.
In 2013 the CrisisWatch database was viewed around 10,400 times
each month. The bulk of our audience growth came via social-media
platforms, which increase the public that comes to our reports,
briefings, and other output. The number of Facebook likes and of
followers on Twitter and Tumblr all increased by more than half in
2013. The number of targeted recipients of our content exceeded
33,000 and more than 200,000 subscribers received a customised
selection of documents based on their choices. The main website
received over 1.8 million visits and 5.3 million page views.
As always, the foundation of all our work was the full-length
reports that are Crisis Groups signature product. Sixty-three
reports and briefings were published in the year, and 57
translations in 16 languages. New research lines were opened and
others closed. We issued our first reports on Niger (September) and
Burkina Faso (July) part of our increasingly flourishing work on
the Sahel and our first two on Mexico (March and May). The North
Caucasus project continued to settle in with a third introductory
report (September) demonstrating the value of truly expert
field-based research. We also bade goodbye to our reporting on
Haiti and Timor-Leste.
Both sides to the Iran nuclear talks say our sanctions report
(February), a useful case study of the strengths and limitations of
sanctions, provided them with analysis and information that helped
make it possible to move forward. Our work on parliaments in
Pakistan (September) and Myanmar (December) paid attention to an
often overlooked pillar of government, and we continued to build up
our work on organised crime through our Mexico reporting.
Our paper looking at the issue of transitional justice within
the context of peace talks between the government and FARC in
Colombia illuminated the challenges in ensuring both that impunity
does not prevail and that the pursuit of justice does not derail
very real prospects for peace. Papers on the Ros Montt trial in
Guatemala (September) and on Libyas fragile justice sector (April)
looked at similar issues.
This was a difficult year in Myanmars transition, most clearly
evidenced by Buddhist-on-Muslim violence. We have tracked this,
together with the challenges of bedding down democracy and ensuring
a stable, lasting ceasefire-leading-to-peace-agreement. Much the
same can be said of
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our coverage of Turkeys sputtering peace process with the PKK;
in our October report and associated commentary, we offered direct
prescriptions to Ankara on how to end that conflict. A local focus
also characterised our work on subnational conflict dynamics in
Sudan, Yemen, Guatemala, Somalia, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic
of Congo and Pakistan.
Our work on Syria continued to set the bar. Whether looking at
the regional spillover in Turkey and Lebanon, Syrias Kurds, the
mutating dynamics of the fighting, the state of the opposition, the
perils of Western intervention, the spreading sectarianism in the
region, or the urgent need to improve humanitarian access, we have
covered this tragedy in meticulous detail, providing clarity when
little exists.
Crisis Group reporting was also marked by its timeliness. Our
last Sri Lanka report appeared on the eve of the Commonwealth
meeting in Colombo. Our report on the implications of Hassan
Rouhanis election as Irans president came in the immediate
aftermath of his victory. Our Egypt report came in the wake of the
July mayhem, and reports on Myanmars confessionally driven
violence, China and Japans increasingly dangerous East China Sea
spat or the need for intervention in the Central African Republic
were all published at the moment when policymakers were facing
difficult choices.
Crisis Group staff authored a remarkable range of articles and
essays over the course of the year, beginning in Foreign Policy
with the second annual Next Years Wars article by President Arbour
(shared by three times the number of readers as the previous years
instalment). Staffers distinguished themselves in every genre, from
Nathan Thralls article in the
Crisis Group Vice President Mark Schneider testifying on Central
African Republic before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, 17 December 2013. Photo: Jay Mallin.
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New York Review of Books on the Middle East peace process to
Ekaterina Sokirianskaias travelogue on the revival of jihad in
Dagestan, from a plangent reflection Peter Harling co-authored on
Syrias tragedy to Daniel Pinkstons observations on the role of
sport in Korean peninsular diplomacy.
We stayed alert to unexpected synergies: some late-night notes
from Cedric Barnes, written immediately after the Westgate Mall
attack in Nairobi and intended as the basis for a blog post, turned
into an op-ed published in The New York Times, Le Monde and
elsewhere and helped draw renewed attention (as did a concerted
social-media push) to our February 2012 report on the implications
of Kenyas military intervention in Somalia.
President Arbour made especially noteworthy contributions to
public debate on forms of intervention (whether the responsibility
to protect, international criminal justice or efforts to strengthen
the rule of law), on global drug policy and on the state of womens
rights. She also did so in a keynote speech at the Global Briefing
in October.
Social media made it possible to improve timeliness without
sacrificing quality, in that they provide a means to publish
instantly to a highly influential policymaking audience. This was
immensely valuable in the publication of Crisis Group statements,
open letters and Crisis Alerts. We published a range of these in
2013: on South Sudan (twice), Syria (twice), Iran, Egypt (twice),
Iraq, Mali, Guinea, Venezuela, North Korea, the Central African
Republic (twice) and marking the death of Nelson Mandela. We also
published open letters to the UN Secretary-General and to the
Security Council timely interventions that complemented ongoing
advocacy at the UN, particularly on African issues, Syria and
Iran.
Such timeliness enabled advocacy staffers in Washington, New
York and Brussels to enhance their own impact. The timeline below
uses the Central African Republic as an example of the integration
of field reporting, communications and advocacy.
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Thierry Vircoulon is our Central Africa Project Director
Thibaud Lesueur is our Central Africa Analyst
January 2 Crisis Group warns of renewed violence
9 President Boziz and Seleka rebels begin peace talks in
Gabon
11 Libreville Agreement signed; ceasefire initiated
24 Thierry Vircoulons op-ed, Restart, published by Development
and Cooperation
February Crisis Group Interactive map Military Forces in CAR
March 24 Seleka rebels seize the capital, Bangui
25 Coup leader Michel Djotodia assumes presidency
27 Crisis Group blog: Failure Has Many Fathers: The Coup in
Central African Republic
April 6 Djotodia forms transitional council to elect an interim
president
13 Djotodia elected interim president
May 31 CAR prosecutor indicts former President Boziz for
incitement to genocide
June 11 Crisis Group report Central African Republic: Priorities
of the Transition
17 African Union agrees to establish African-led international
support mission
August 9 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon says CAR has suffered
a total breakdown
of law and order
September 13 President Djotodia formally dissolves Seleka
coalition
24 Thierry Vircoulons op-ed, Thinking Out of the Box to Save the
CAR,
published by AllAfrica
October 16 President Louise Arbour discusses CAR with French FM
Fabius, Paris
24 Thibaud Lesueur advocacy in Paris
November 1 UN official warns of possible genocide
15 Crisis Group issues Open Letter to the UN Security Council
on
the Central African Republic
20 Thierry Vircoulons op-ed, Central African Republic falling
into anarchy,
pub lished by Al Jazeera
29 Thierry Vircoulon advo cacy in Brussels
128 Thierry Vircoulon advocacy in Paris
December 1 Thibaud Lesueur and Thierry Vircoulons op-ed, Africas
Crumbling Center,
published by New York Times
2 Crisis Group briefing Central African Republic: Better Late
than Never
46 Thierry Vircoulon advocacy UN, New York
5 UNSC passes resolution authorising French military
intervention in CAR
9 Crisis Group blog: A Critical Week Ahead in Bangui
17 Vice President Schneider testifies before U.S. Senate Foreign
Relations Committee
19 U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Power, visits CAR
Crisis Group blog: Central African Re public: The International
Options for 2014
Crisis Group Advocacy Case Study 2013 Central African
Republic
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When we started thinking about an EU response to the challenges
in the Gulf of Guinea we were very much inspired by the ICG report
New Danger Zone, and have engaged with your analysts along the way,
which has been extremely useful.Letter from EEAS West Africa
Division chief Sean Doyle to President Arbour
ICGs analysis and advocacy efforts about what is occurring in
conflict zones around the world are simply unrivaled.Stephen
Hadley, former U.S. National Security Advisor
ICG reports are must-reads. They provide reliable expertise,
sharp observations and a valuable overview. This is why we need ICG
as a source of information and orientation and why we like to
publish articles by its experts.Sylke Tempel, Editor,
Internationale Politik, German Council on Foreign Relations,
Berlin
I am sure you have seen the report from the International Crisis
Group in which they had looked at sanctions, evaluated those
sanctions ... [B]adly designed sanctions might actually increase
the likelihood of Iran getting a nuclear weapon or increase the
likelihood of war. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren in an exchange
with Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Washington, DC, 4 June
2013
The International Crisis Groups ground-based and
solutions-oriented research in conflicts (and potential conflicts)
around the world consistently provides unique insight for
policymakers, journalists, and diplomats alike. Amjad Atallah,
Regional Director for the Americas, Al Jazeera Media Network
What Others Say
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Fundingin 2013Crisis Group is deeply grateful to the following
donors for supporting our work
-
Governments
Australia (Agency for International Development)
Austria (Austrian Development Agency)
Belgium (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Canada (Canadian International Development Agency;
InternationalDevelopment Research Centre)
Denmark (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
Finland (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Germany (Federal Foreign Office)
Ireland (Irish Aid)
Liechtenstein (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Luxembourg (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
The Netherlands (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
New Zealand (Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade)
Norway (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Sweden (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Switzerland (Federal Department of Foreign Affairs)
Turkey (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
United Kingdom (Department for International Development)
United States (U.S. Agency for International Development)
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Foundations
Adessium Foundation
Carnegie Corporation of New York
The Charitable Foundation
The Elders
The Henry Luce Foundation
Humanity United
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
Oak Foundation
Open Society Foundations
Open Society Initiative for West Africa
Ploughshares Fund
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
The Stanley Foundation
Tearfund
Tinker Foundation
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
VIVA Trust
Listings for governments and foundations reflect contributions
received between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2013.
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Individual and Corporate Donors and Supporters
Leadership CircleIndividual supporters contributing US$250,000
or more annually:
AnonymousFrank Giustra
Paul Reynolds
Presidents CouncilCorporate and individual supporters
contributing US$100,000 or more annually:
BPStephen & Jennifer DattelsFrank HolmesInvestec Asset
Management Ltd.McKinsey & Company
Pierre MirabaudShearman & Sterling LLPStatoil (U.K.)
Ltd.White & Case LLP
International Advisory CouncilPrivate donors and supporters
contributing between US$25,000 and US$99,999 annually:
CorporateAnglo American PLCAPCO Worldwide Inc.Atlas Copco ABBG
Group PLCChevronEquinox Partners, L.P.FTI ConsultingLockwood
Financial Ltd.MasterCard WorldwidePTT Public Company
LimitedShellSilk Road FinanceYap Merkezi Construction and Industry
Inc
IndividualAnonymousRyan BeedieDavid Brown & Erika FrankeNeil
& Sandra DeFeo Family FoundationNeemat FremSeth & Jane
GinnsGeoffrey HsuGeorge KellnerFaisel & Muniba KhanElliott
KulickDavid LevyLeslie LishonKerry PropperMichael L. RiordanHorst
SporerVIVA TrustStylios S. Zavvos
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Other Individual and Corporate SupportUS$100,000 or
moreAnonymous
US$50,000 or moreAnonymousHerman De BodeGeorge Soros
US$25,000 or moreAtlantic Investment Management Canaccord
Financial Inc.COMO HOTELS/Parrot CayConocoPhillips Long Island
Community Foundation Stanley & Marion Bergman Family Charitable
Fund
US$10,000 or moreChardan Capital MarketsCharles & Lael
ChesterDLA Piper LLCEmbley Park FoundationEniExxonMobilJulius &
Belma GaudioCarla HillsMo IbrahimPierre KellerJeannette and H.
Peter Kriendler Charitable TrustThomas R. PickeringAna Luisa Ponti
& Geoffrey R. HoguetScomi Group BhdNina K. SolarzJen
StaehelinRon & Janet SternU.S. Global Investors, Inc.
US$5,000 or moreAnonymousSamuel R. Berger & Susan Berger
Mark Bergman & Susan GibsonWesley K. ClarkLinda
EvanswoodExport Development CanadaRita E. HauserCatharine Hawkins
FoundationSai S. HtunShiv Vikram KhemkaNii Owuraka KoneyLostand
FoundationEnzo ViscusiYakazi CorporationLionel Zinsou
US$1,000 or moreAnonymousaLanguage BankMorton AbramowitzAuerbach
GraysonThe Baobab FundRichard Benson-ArmerAndrew BlackAndrew
BrimmerCombined Federal CampaignThe Community Foundation for the
National Capital RegionRamsay & Trisha DerryJodie & John
EastmanEdelmanJonathan FantonJess & Marcia FardellaYoichi
FunabashiJoseph & Susan Gatto FoundationChristina HajduEleanor
HoltzmanPJ JuvekarSudhir KamathLouis KleinAmy and Max Lehman &
New Prospect FoundationDavid LymanNorine MacDonald
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Harriet Mouchly-Weiss Michael P. MurphyDavid C. NagelPeter
NathanialAyo ObeMichael Patsalos-FoxNicholas & Carol
PaumgartenDavid L. PhillipsHelen RaffelAllan RockAlexander J.
RoepersRichard & Michele Ruble
Edelie SeeDavid SimkinsNancy SoderbergMelissa & Robert
SorosJoseph & Anya StiglitzLeeanne SuStuart SundlunJohn K.
TysselandVivian and Paul Olum FoundationLisa WoodwardArdeshir
Zahedi
Gifts or support of US$1,000 or more received between 1 February
2013 and 31 January 2014.
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The Presidents Challenge
In 2013 we launched our Presidents Challenge
a vital campaign to double our Presidents
Council membership and raise $1 million in
additional annual income to sustain our work
across the globe. Our Presidents Council
members are individuals and corporations
contributing a minimum of $100,000 per annum
to fund our core work. This distinguished
group is at the heart of our pursuit of peace,
and we invite you to join us in taking forward
our ambitious mission to prevent, mitigate and
resolve deadly conflict.
All new memberships to the Presidents
Council will be matched through generous
funding provided by Crisis Group Board
member Frank Giustra and an anonymous
donor, thereby doubling the impact of your gift.
For more information on the Presidents Challenge, please contact
Josie Emslie on [email protected]
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Total unrestricted income for annual operations for
the financial year ending 30 June 2013 was $18.3
million, of which 84% was core contributions. Total
expenditure for the financial year ending 30 June
2013 was $21.9 million. Contributed services
comprising various professional services are
reflected in the unrestricted core contributions and
administrative expenditure totals. The value of
these contributions for the year ending 30 June
2013 was $1.25 million. Without these contributions
the expenditure ratios would be as follows:
Development: 7%; Administration: 10%; Advocacy:
23%; Operations (Programs): 60%.
Crisis Group Income and Expenditure in 2013
Governments 47%Individual and Corporate 23%Institutional
Foundations 30%
Operations 56%Advocacy 22%Administration 15%Development 7%
56
Expenditure
22
15
7
47
Income
30
23
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Global Briefing Brussels, October 2013
Images from the 2013 Global Briefing. This is an exclusive
two-day, high-level gathering examining urgent issues and solutions
concerning major conflict flashpoints across the globe. The
briefing offers invited participants an opportunity to go beyond
the headlines in discussions with more than 40 of Crisis Groups
field-based and senior staff and Board members.
ICG 2013GLOBAL B R I E F I NG
Top: Lyse Doucet, Thomas Pickering, Kofi Annan and George Soros.
Middle: Wu Jianmin, Pernille Dahler Kardel, Graeme Smith, Antonia
Potter-Prentice. Bottom: Louise Arbour (left) and Natalie
Nougayrde. Photos: Joke Druyts.