Crisis Action Planning

Crisis Action PlanningCrisis Action Planning

01 January 2006

CTF Mission AnalysisCTF Mission Analysis

UNCLASSIFIED

CTF Training

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• Discuss techniques and procedures for conducting an operational level mission analysis for Coalition Task Force (CTF) operations

• First step of Commander’s Estimate process

• Operational level (includes strategic military and politico-military objectives)

PURPOSE

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References

JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint OperationsJP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations

JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & ProceduresGuidance & Procedures

MNF SOPMNF SOPMULTINATIONAL FORCE

STANDING OPERATING PROCEDURES(MNF SOP)

Version 1.6February 2006

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VCOA Decision

VCOA Decision

IVCOA Comparison

IVCOA Comparison

IIICOA Analysis

IIICOA Analysis

IICOA Development

IICOA Development

IMission Analysis

IMission Analysis

Commander’s Estimate Process

Crisis Action Planning Process

WARNORD EXORD

ISituation

Development

IICrisis

Assessment

IIICOA

Development

IVCOA

Selection

VExecutionPlanning

VI

Execution

MISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXT

ALERTORDand/or

PLANORD

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MISSION ANALYSIS OBJECTIVES

• UNDERSTAND THE STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL SITUATIONS

• UNDERSTAND HHQ’S INTENT &

CONCEPT

• DEVELOP TASKS

• DEVELOP CTF MISSION STATEMENT

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MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS

1. Determine known facts

2. Develop assumptions

3. Analyze HHQ’s mission & intent

4. Determine limitations

5. Determine COGs / Decisive Points

6. Identify operational-level tasks

7. Initial CTF force structure analysis

8. Initial risk assessment

9. Determine military end state

10. Develop mission statement

11. Prepare mission analysis brief

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Coalition/Combined Planning Group (CPG)

C-4StaffC-4Staff

C-5StaffC-5Staff

C-6Staff

PAStaffPAStaff

SJAStaffSJAStaff

MedicalStaff

MedicalStaff

JTFCompJTF

Comp

C-3StaffC-3Staff

C-2StaffC-2Staff

C-1StaffC-1Staff

C-3

Rep

s

C-5 Reps

C-6 Reps

C-4 Reps

PA

RepsSJA

Rep

s

Med Reps

LNOs

C-2 R

epsC-1 Reps

Deployment CellIO

Cel

l IM C

ell

Orders Cell

CPG

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1. DETERMINE FACTS

What does the Coalition Task Force (CTF) know about the current status

and conditions?• Command and Control (C2)

Intelligence Support Element (ISE) in coordination with other staff sections, conducts Intelligence Preparation of Battlespace (IPB)– Define battlespace environment– Describe the battlespace’s effects– Evaluate the threat

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1. DETERMINE FACTS1. DETERMINE FACTS

What does the CTF know about the current status and conditions?

• Coalition Planning Group (CPG) provides to the rest of the staff:• Supported HHQ mission, intent, and CONOPS• Forces available, readiness status of CTF forces• Review lift priority and lift allocation• Other forces available, organizations /

multinational• Political situation (Host nation, friendly/foreign

gov’t)• Time analysis

• Balance desire for detailed planning against the need for speed and allocating time for component planning

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TIME ANALYSIS

Develop a timeline to focus the staff

CTF Planning Process (Days / Weeks)

C-Day D-Day

Mission Analysis (Hours)

HHQ’sW/O

Received

TaskAnalysis

Assumptions,Risks,

Limitations

RestatedMission

MissionAnalysis

Brief

Planning Events (Days / Hours)

HHQ’s W/O

Received

MissionAnalysis

Brief

COADecision

Brief

CDR’sEstimate

Brief

OPORDIssued

HHQ’sWarning/Order (W/O)

Issued

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1. DETERMINE FACTS

What does the CTF know about the current status and

conditions?• CTF Staff

– Contribute to IPB Development– Provide staff input to CPG

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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS

Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning

• Assumptions replace missing or unknown facts

• Must be valid (logical, realistic) and necessary (essential for planning to continue)

• Don’t assume away enemy capabilities• Must be reassessed continuallyLitmus Test: If an assumption proves false, the plan could be

invalid. If an issue does not have this effect, it should not be an assumption.

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2. DEVELOP ASSUMPTIONS

Replace missing or unknown facts necessary to continue planning

• CPG disseminates facts & assumptions, and should consider• Support from other government and civilian agencies• Availability of and support requirements for host

nation or multinational forces• Projection of the end state• Available time• Political situation of countries proximate to COA

• CTF staff sections determine assumptions from their analysis; provide input to CPG via their representative

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3. ANALYZE HIGHER MISSION & INTENT

• Analyze Mission & Intent understanding all information in the

HHQ’s planning directive• Understand HHQ’s mission

(understand the WHY of the mission)• Understand CTF’s role in HHQ’s intent

and concept of operations• Understand HHQ’s plan for

information operations / warfare (IO/IW) Need clarification? Ask Need clarification? Ask

the HHQ’s staff!the HHQ’s staff!

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4. DETERMINE LIMITATIONS

Constraints, restraints and other limitations on the CTF

• Restrictions placed on the CTF• Constraints: required actions (must do) that limit

freedom of action• e.g., conduct air strikes with a specific period of time

• Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)• e.g., cannot pursue enemy across a certain border

• May be imposed by HHQ or by circumstances• CTF staff sections determine limitations

from their own perspective; provide to CPG• CPG determines overall limitations and

disseminates them

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5. DETERMINE CENTERS OF GRAVITYAND DECISIVE POINTS

Analyze both friendly, enemy COGs to determine strengths and weaknesses

• COGs are “those characteristics, capabilities, or locations from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight.”

• Enemy COGs developed by CPG / C2

• Friendly COGs developed by CPG

• COGs at Strategic, Operational, Tactical levels

• Decisive Points usually “geographic in nature . . . and are the keys to attacking protected COGs.”

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6. IDENTIFY OPERATIONAL LEVEL TASKS

Identify tasks in terms of Specified, Implied, and Essential Tasks

• List specified tasks• Stated in HHQ’s order, usually paras 2 & 3

• Develop implied tasks• Not specifically assigned, but must be accomplished

• Determine essential tasks• Those tasks which define success

• CTF staff sections determine tasks and provide input to CPG

• CPG determines overall tasks and disseminates

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Tasks

Specified

Implied

Essential

(1) Conduct needs assessment(2) Deploy forces(3) Provide HA/DR support to host nation

(1) Coordinate with NGOs & IOs(2) Provide force protection

(1) Deploy forces(2) Provide HA/DR support to host nation(3) Provide force protection

TASK ANALYSIS WORKSHEET

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x

x

x

xx

x

x

x

x

x

TASK Army Navy AF Marines SOF

1. Initial Assessment

2. Coordinate w/ NGOs

3. Port security

4. Provide security for camps5. Provide temporary shelter

6. Provide ground transport

7. Distribute food & water

8. Provide air traffic control

All specified and implied tasks should be assigned to

a CTF organization

TASK ASSIGNMENT MATRIX

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7. INITIAL CTF FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS

What has the HHQ provided? Are theysufficient to accomplish essential tasks?

• Review forces provided by HHQ for planning• Locations• Status of reserve forces and time they’re

available

• Determine broad force structure and capabilities necessary to accomplish tasks• Component LNOs / planners crucial here

• Identify shortfalls

More specific force requirements will be determined after COA Development & COA Analysis

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8. INITIAL RISK ASSESSMENT

What are the mission accomplishment and force protection risks?

• May be risks associated with• Mission (risks the HHQ/CCTF is willing to take in order to

accomplish mission)• Force Protection (e.g., casualties, fratricide, terrorist

threat)• Time available as provided by HHQ’s limitations

• HHQ’s risk tolerance might be stated or implied• CTF staff sections determine risks from their

perspective; provide to CPG• CPG determines overall risks, considers mitigation

methods, disseminates to staff

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9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE

What are the conditions that define success / termination of operations?

• Strategic End State conditions• Returning to state of peace & stability• May include diplomatic, economic, military,

informational conditions

• Operational (military) End State conditions• Transition from predominant use of military

to other instruments of national powerFocus on Operational (military) end state

conditions!

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9. DETERMINE MILITARY END STATE

What are the conditions that define success / termination of operations?

• End state basic principles• Conditions contribute to end of combat on terms

favorable to coalition/multinational partners• Gain control over enemy’s capabilities• Control defined by CTF’s ability to impose its will on

enemy, and preventing enemy from renewing conflict

• Describe and record end state conditions• In terms of enemy’s capabilities• In terms of friendly capabilities

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10. DEVELOP MISSION STATEMENT

Consider essential tasks; describe the WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE, and WHY

“When directed, CTF Huimang will provide initialHA/DR and conduct emergency infrastructurerepair within the AO in order to alleviate humansuffering and create an environment enabling the transition to civil authority”

EXAMPLE:

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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF

CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF

Chief of Staff (COS) or C5 / C3

• Purpose & Agenda• Area of Operations

C2• Initial Intel

situation• Elements of

IPB

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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF

CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF

C5 / C3• HHQ’s mission,

intent, CONOPS• Forces available• Assumptions• Limitations

• COGs/Decisive Pts• Tasks

– Specified– Implied– Essential

• Initial Force Structure

• Risk Assessment

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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF

CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF

C5 / C3• End State• Proposed Mission

Statement• Time analysis

– projected planning milestones

C1• Facts, assumptions,

conclusions• Personnel actions• Personnel services• Other personnel

related support

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11. MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEF

CPG conducts Mission Analysis brief to CCTF

C4• Facts, assumptions,

conclusions• Supply• Services, Health Svc• Transportation• Others

C6• Facts, assumptions,

conclusions

OTHERS• As appropriate to

the mission

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•Common understanding of the problem and the mission

•CTF restated mission

•Commander’s guidance & approval to continue planning

MISSION ANALYSIS END STATE

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MISSION ANALYSIS TASK STEPS

1. Determine known facts 2. Develop assumptions

3. Analyze HHQ’s mission & intent 4. Determine limitations 5. Determine COGs / Decisive Points

6. Identify operational-level tasks 7. Initial CTF force structure analysis 8. Initial risk assessment

9. Determine military end state10. Develop mission statement

11.Prepare mission analysis brief

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VCOA Decision

VCOA Decision

IVCOA Comparison

IVCOA Comparison

IIICOA Analysis

IIICOA Analysis

IICOA Development

IICOA Development

IMission Analysis

IMission Analysis

Commander’s Estimate ProcessCommander’s Estimate Process

Crisis Action Planning Process

WARNORD EXORD

ISituation

Development

IICrisis

Assessment

IIICOA

Development

IVCOA

Selection

VExecutionPlanning

VI

Execution

MISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXTMISSION ANALYSIS IN CONTEXT

ALERTORDand/or

PLANORD

Questions?

CTF Training

Enhancing Multinational OperationsEnhancing Multinational Operations

UNCLASSIFIED