Criminology and contract cheating: Prevalence, detection, and prevention Joe Clare Presentation at the 2 nd Annual TEQSA Conference Melbourne, Australia December 1, 2017 1 Acknowledgment of co-authors across papers Dr Guy Curtis, Associate Dean Sonia Walker, & Dr Julia Hobson – Murdoch Dr Michael Baird – Curtin
31
Embed
Criminology and contract cheating · Criminology and contract cheating: Prevalence, detection, and prevention Joe Clare Presentation at the 2nd Annual TEQSA Conference Melbourne,
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Criminology and contract cheating:
Prevalence, detection, and prevention
Joe Clare
Presentation at the 2nd Annual TEQSA Conference
Melbourne, Australia
December 1, 2017
1
Acknowledgment of co-authors across papers
Dr Guy Curtis, Associate Dean Sonia Walker, & Dr Julia Hobson – Murdoch
Dr Michael Baird – Curtin
What is this talk about?
• Exploring contract cheating from a criminological perspective
o Summarising three 2017 papers to suggest that opportunity theory has a
contribution to make
• Crime is non-random, opportunity-based explanations are the best
way to account for this, and opportunity can be adjusted to prevent
crime
• If opportunity theory is relevant, what would we expect?
o Prevalence
o Repeats (targets and perpetrators)
o Prevention
• What we found
• What does this mean2
3
Crime is non-random
It clusters at very specific spaces
4Source. Eck (2015). Who should prevent crime at places? The advantages of regulating place managers and challenges to police services. Policing
10% of addresses account for 80% of crime
5
It involves very specific offenders
10% of the population account for
66% of crime(prevalence)
Most active 10% of
offenders account for
41% of crime(frequency)
Source. Martinez, Lee, Eck, & SooHyun (2017). Ravenous wolves revisited: a systematic review of offending concentration. Crime Science
6
It involves very specific victims
Source. SooHyun, Martinez, Lee, & Eck (2017). How concentrated is crime among victims? A systematic review from 1977 to 2014. Crime Science
10% of the population experience
74% of victimisation
(prevalence)
Most victimised 10%
experienced 35% of
victimisation(frequency)
7Source: Sidebottom, A. et al. (2011). Theft in price-volatile markets: on the relationship between copper price and copper theft. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48(3), 396-418.
It involves very specific targets
Think of it loosely like an 80:20 rule
8
• The 80:20 Rule – a small number of things are responsible for a large proportion of outcomes
o The rule-of-thumb is important to target interventions
o The percentages change (80:20) depending on the problem
o Small numbers of offenders are responsible for many crimes
o Small numbers of victims suffer a large amount of victimisation
o Small numbers of places are the locations of many crimes
• In pure terms
o Repeat-location problems (time-space interaction)
o Repeat-offender problems
o Repeat-victim problems (individual/target)
9
We can explain the non-randomness of
crime
• The problem analysis triangle helps us understand how and why crime occurs at a specific time in a specific place involving specific people/targets
http://www.popcenter.org/
The problem analysis triangle
10
• The problem analysis triangle helps us understand how and why crime occurs at a specific time in a specific place involving specific people/targets
http://www.popcenter.org/
The problem analysis triangle
11
Crime is an opportunity-based rational choice
• Decisions to offend are constrained by time, cognitive
ability and information
o Bounded rationality
o Within the context, to that person, it made sense, at the time
• “Perceptions” of the situation and of risks and rewards is
more important that actual circumstances
• Decisions vary by the different stages of the offense and
among different offenders
12
Crime is an opportunity-based rational choice
• Individuals who are not normally “criminals” may choose to
offend based on the perceived risks and rewards
• If offenders choose to commit crimes based on a number of
factors, then those factors can be altered to discourage
them from choosing to offend
• Crime – in many circumstances –
is not inevitable
13
14
We can prevent non-random, rational
events by altering the opportunity
Using these explanations to develop targeted prevention
• Effective problem solving requires understanding
o How offenders and targets come together in places (time and space)
o How offenders, targets, and places are not effectively controlled
▪ Handlers, guardians, and managers
• “Think thief” to understand why offending in that opportunity structure was ‘rational’
• Analysis in this way identifies weaknesses in the problem analysis triangle
• This will point to targeted interventions designed to address the specific problem
15
We can use this approach to reduce opportunity for crime
16
• Manipulate the opportunity structure by…
• Increasing the effort
• Increasing the risk
• Reducing the rewards
• Reducing the provocations
• Removing the excuses
• These are the 5 mechanisms that underpin the25 techniques of Situational Crime Prevention