CRICOS #00212K Department of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013 Professor Colin Butler ARC Future Fellow Climate change and security.

CRICOS #00212KDepartment of Defence Canberra, June 28, 2013

Professor Colin ButlerARC Future Fellow

Climate change and security

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Climate change is a geopolitical "threat multiplier," UK climate envoy says

Molly Peterson | March 5th, 2012

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Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti

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A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century

Date: Thursday 22 - Friday 23 March, 2012Location: Lancaster House Hosted by the Foreign & CommonwealthOffice in partnership with Wilton Park

A climate and resource security dialogue for the 21st century focused on the emerging threat climate change poses to

global security and prosperity.

UN Security Council debate (07/11); Berlin conference Climate Diplomacy in Perspective (10/11).

Climate change has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions and fragilities in states vulnerable to climate and

resource stresses such as extreme weather. https://www.wiltonpark.org.uk/conference/wp1167/

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UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon climate change and conflict

• "In coming decades, changes in our environment and the resulting upheavals from droughts to inundated coastal areas to loss of arable land are likely to become a major driver of war and conflict"

March 1, 2007

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Waterscarcity

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence

[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

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World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security RiskGerman Advisory Council on Global Change, 2007

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“The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be

discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

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“If the country faces famine and widespread hunger … which loss of crops will almost

certainly generate”.. “resultant situation could lead to a nuclear war at worst, and

conversion of this part of the world into a centre for terror activities at best.”

Fateh Ullah Khan Gandapur, former chair of Indus River System Authority (editorial April 2009) in Pakistan’s largest circulation daily newspaper.

Bagla, P. 2010. Along the Indus River, Saber Rattling Over Water Security. Science, 328, 1226-1227.

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“extremely important”

“very important”

Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science (2010)

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The counterview

Water conflicts avoided .. Scarcity increases

pressure for peace e.g. De Stefano et al (2012). Climate change and the

institutional resilience of international river basins. Journal of Peace Research, 49, 193-209.

“The constant struggle for the waters of the Jordan .., and other

life-giving Middle East rivers, little under-stood outside the

region, was a principal cause of the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and

could help spark a new all-out conflict.” e.g. Cooley (1984). The War over

Water. Foreign Policy, 54, 3-26.

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Hung Liang-chi 1744-1809

Honda Toschiaki 1744-1821

Thomas Malthus 1766-1834

Population/resources: an old debate

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Non-human carrying capacity

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Human Carrying Capacity

population supportable, in good health, into the foreseeable future

• Non-human species: CC = fn [natural capital]• Human CC = fn [Natural, social, human, built and

financial “capitals”]

– Inter-convertibility of types of “capital” (partial)– Ability to expand HCC via culture/technology– But: need to conserve the essential natural capital– And, as capital/person declines, so can co-operation

(social capital) – risk of conflict15

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Material

Cultural

Political

Security

Environmental(e.g. food , water, energy)

Freedom (e.g. speech, travel, employment), policies Tolerance

Police, militarylaw, other determinantse.g. distributionnow and in future

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e.g. Attitude to women, treatment of dying, tolerance

Health determinants Research, technology,

co-operation , eg vaccines, hospitals, health care systems

Scientific, Technical

Health

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Material

Cultural

Political

Behav-iour

Environmental(e.g. food , water, energy)

Freedom and responsibility

Law, local, national, international

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e.g. tolerance, sense of identity, anticipation

Securitydeterminants

Military personnel and hardware

Military

Security

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